Download summer university on it in agriculture and rural development – 2006

CLIMATE CHANGE
AND
PRECIPITATION NEEDS OF WINTER WHEAT
Éva Erdélyi, Corvinus University of Budapest
Levente Horváth, University of Debrecen
[email protected]
Climate determines agricultural production.
Climate change in Hungary is characterized by increases in
temperature and less precipitation → decreased yield?
• geographical analogues: future climate in Hungary is
similar to the present climate of South-Southeast Europe.
Horváth (2006, later today)
• the risk of wheat production in Hungary between 1950 and
1990 has been increased, partly independently to the risk
aversion of the decision maker. Ladányi (2006)
(Debrecen region: the increase is quite high and even quicker.)
we analyzed the biomass changes of maize and saw that
moderate warming can increase the yield, but more
increase of the temperature can cause big losses (by using 4M
model for different climate scenarios as weather inputs). And:
• though the variability of the temperature doesn’t change much
for the used climate scenarios, the estimated maize
production does.
SUMMER UNIVERSITY ON IT IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT –
2006 DEBRECEN, HUNGARY
Scenarios
Climate scenarios can be defined as pictures of how the
climate may look like in the future. Our work is based on
GCMs downscaled to Debrecen. For comparison we used:
• Scenario BASE with the parameters of our days,
• Scenarios created by Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory (USA) GFDL2535 and GFDL5564 (finer
resolution), with consideration of CO2 increase in
atmosphere, and
• three very different scenarios worked out by United Kingdom
Meteorological Office (UKMO):
UKHI (high-resolution equilibrium climate change exp.),
UKLO (low-resolution equilibrium climate change exp.) and
UKTR (high-resolution transient climate change
experiment).
This time we wanted to see the effects of climate change
through analyzing the precipitation needs of winter wheat.
j
Center
of agricultural production and our research: Debrecen
SUMMER UNIVERSITY ON IT IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT –
2006 DEBRECEN, HUNGARY
Accumulated heat
in the future - estimated
2100
heat - sum (oC)
heat - sum ( oC)
Accumulated heat
in the past - measured
1900
1700
1500
84
19
88
92
19
19
19
96
BASE
5500
4500
3500
2500
1500
00
UKHI
UKLO
UKT R
GF5564
GF2534
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
20
year
year
Growing season of winter wheat
precipitation sum
(mm)
Accumulated precipitation
in the future - estimated
year
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
19
19
86
600
500
400
300
200
84
precipitation - sum
(mm)
Accumulated precipitation
in the past - measured
BASE
UKHI
UKLO
UKTR
GF2534
GF5564
800
600
400
200
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
year
SUMMER UNIVERSITY ON IT IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT –
2006 DEBRECEN, HUNGARY
Precipitation is a great limiting factor in some periods of
growing:
November: the grains need to be in wet soil, so it’s very
important to have precipitation for and after sowing (especially
in the observed region, because of the continental climate).
too much - unable to sow → restricted production area,
lower yield
less than enough - the plant is too week for winter.
May: precipitation good for big grain mass, but
if too much, - stormy, beatens down the crop → unsuitable
for harvesting,
- more fungal deseases → lower yield,
big variability in production (quality and quantity)
SUMMER UNIVERSITY ON IT IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT –
July: precipitation not good, because of harvesting, but:
Debrecen,
1984-96
42.83
22.51
0.53
BA
average 87.45
St.dev. 39.26
0.45
CV
HI
LO
56.90 100.05
31.14 42.24
0.55 0.42
TR
74.28
33.83
0.46
GF2
74.77
32.30
0.43
GF5
109.10
52.04
0.48
Results for november and may:
Precipitation amount almost the same (a bit less), BUT
all scenarios show big variability.
For the entire growing season: precipitation amount won’t
change.
Can we say the same for the whole course of development?
SUMMER UNIVERSITY ON IT IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT –
Problems, questions
•
•
•
•
•
the answer is NO, for example for July
rising temperatures increase the crops’ water demand,
the precipitation is even harmful in some stages of growing,
too wet soil and high evapotranspiration produce lower yield,
winter wheats yield grows with less precipitation in some
periods of growing
(the observed sums of the precipitations for the growing
season show a slow decrease and the scenarios predict
smaller values in the future - this might be good),
• we see a big variability in the amounts of the precipitation
→ the frequency and the probability of extreme weather
events such as droughts and floods increases?
• precipitation, less information
• conditions in different phenological stages?
SUMMER UNIVERSITY ON IT IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT –
2006 DEBRECEN, HUNGARY
From sowing to emergence 10-45 mm of precipitation was
measured in the past.
Climate scenarios (except UKHI) predict the same amounts
for the future:
precipitation sum (mm) a
BASE
SOWING - EMERGENCE phenological phase
UKHI
80
UKLO
UKTR
60
GF2534
40
GF5564
20
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
year
SUMMER UNIVERSITY ON IT IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT –
2006 DEBRECEN, HUNGARY
Winter wheat is very sensitive on meteorological circumstances in the stem
elongation – spikelet initiation period. In this period precipitation is of higher
importance than temperature:
• the shortage of precipitation can be seen, for example in leaf development,
• too wet soil and high evapotranspiration produce lower yield.
In this phase the plant was having 70-80 mm of precipitation in
the past and the forecasted values are not very good for any of
the climate scenarios we used.
BASE
UKHI
STEM ELONGATION - SPIKELET INITIATION
phenological phase
UKLO
precipitation sum (mm)
160
UKTR
GF2534
120
GF5564
80
40
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
year
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
SUMMER UNIVERSITY ON IT IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT –
2006 DEBRECEN, HUNGARY
The variability is very high.
SE-SI
phen.ph.
70-80 mm
conf.int.
(90%)
st.dev.
average
CV
BA
HI
LO
TR
GF2
GF5
0.715
31.67
51.70
0.61
0.699
31.01
32.56
0.95
0.95
42.12
68.65
0.61
0.70
31.19
50.65
0.616
0.699
30.99
50.32
0.616
0.857
37.99
57.77
0.66
high variability → extrem events → high risk
unpredictible future → preventive adaptation strategies are
needed
In case of drough the crop response is halving the yield.
Our response can be watering for increasing the production.
SUMMER UNIVERSITY ON IT IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT –
2006 DEBRECEN, HUNGARY
For the anthesis-grain filling phenological phase, - when the
plant develops its generative organs - 75-160 mm of
precipitation was measured in the past.
Florets may not develop with lower amounts, which leads to
smaller yield.
We can be satisfied with the forecasted values of the climate
scenarios:
BASE
precipitation (mm)
a
ANTHESIS - GRAIN FILLING phenological phase
UKHI
250
UKLO
200
UKTR
GF2534
150
GF5564
100
50
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
year
SUMMER UNIVERSITY ON IT IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT –
2006 DEBRECEN, HUNGARY
Too few and too much precipitation are both very
unfavourable for winter wheat growing, and the
unpredictibility (because the high variability we see in the
frequency and in the amount of the precipitation in almost
all phenological stages for all of the used climate
scenarios) even more.
We calculated the R95, the percent of days in a given year,
when the daily precipitation amount on a wet day is out of the
95th percentile calculated for the period 1961-1990.
We used KKT program (Szenteleki, 2006) which also gives
as the precipitation amount on wet days in the period, using
the same climate scenarios. Normally this index is around 5
percent, but we can see many differences. This means that
the precipitation has significant variability. This result (and
some other calculated indeces) can give us information for
predicting extreme conditions, too.
SUMMER UNIVERSITY ON IT IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT –
2006 DEBRECEN, HUNGARY
The kurtosis of the R95 indeces
The skewness of the R95 indeces
climate scenario
4
4
GF
253
GF
556
TR
climate scenario
Means: distribution asimetric to
positive direction.
R95, days
UK
UK
BA
LO
precipitation
amount
SE
UK
HI
UK
LO
UK
TR
GF
25
34
GF
55
64
BA
SE
0
number of
days
HI
0,5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
UK
number of
days
precipitation
amount
1
kurtosis
skewness
1,5
Values as small as bigger the
flatness of the distribution.
min1
min2
average
max2
max1
BASE
35
53
118.71
251
266
12
UKHI
0
28
94.87
210
288
9
10
UKLO
35
56
143.32
290
294
4.97
9
9
UKTR
29
45
107.9
220
228
2
5.1
10
10
GF2534
30
50
111.52
222
235
2
4.94
8
10
GF5564
33
46
133.19
272
304
min1
min2
average
max2
max1
BASE
1
2
5
10
11
UKHI
0
2
5.06
10
UKLO
1
2
5
UKTR
1
2
GF2534
1
GF5564
1
R95, mm
SUMMER UNIVERSITY ON IT IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT –
Plans
Analyzing
the future winter wheat production,
the effects of the climate change,
sensitivity (lethal limits, …) of the plant to different climate
conditions, especially extrem weather events
using the hungarian crop model 4M and other models as
SIRIUS (plant growing model) and
STICS (plant production model) and the same climate
scenarios,
Further plans: to analyze the influences of the climate
change on other crops production, too.
SUMMER UNIVERSITY ON IT IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT –
2006 DEBRECEN, HUNGARY
Thank you!
SUMMER UNIVERSITY ON IT IN AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT –
2006 DEBRECEN, HUNGARY