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An EEA / ETC ACM project on emission scenarios John van Aardenne 7th meeting of the TFEIP’s projections expert panel 2nd May 2011 Stockholm, Sweden European Environment Agency In SOER 2010 emission projections and scenarios of air pollutants and greenhouse gases is included: (1) SOER (2010), air pollution. European Environment Agency In SOER 2010 emission projections and scenarios of air pollutants and greenhouse gases is included: (2) SOER (2010), climate mitigation. European Environment Agency AP and GHG: often same emission sources: efforts to control one group of pollutant can lead to benefits and disadvantages (SOER (2010), air pollution) European Environment Agency Results from recent assessments highlight benefits and disadvantages in emission reduction of AP and GHG Reducing cost of air pollution abatement. Under C&E package costs of implementing future air pollution policy in Europe may be reduced by around EUR 16 billion per year (EC, 2008/SOER 2010) Impact on human health. JRC (2010): C&E package would reduce loss of statistical life expectancy due to PM in Europe with 2 months (by 2030). In 2000: ~6-8 mnths. UNEP (2011): implementation of both CH4 and BC measures will in 2030 and beyond result in annually 2.5 million avoided premature death. Impact of air pollution abatement (HTAP, 2010) Decreasing NOx emissions will increase lifetime of CH4 Reduction in PM containing cooling aerosols would increase warming Reduction in PM containing BC benefit for both AP and GHG European Environment Agency In order to understand our environmental assessments we need to understand what’s in the underlying scenarios (uncertainty in trends but also methods/assumption) Figure from HTAP 2010 Chapter A3 (in press) European Environment Agency EEA has asked its ETC/ACM to make an assessment on the applicability of available emission scenarios to study the effect of air and climate policies on the atmospheric composition and its impact. Subtask 1: Evaluation of available emission scenarios on how they address the effect of air and climate policies on the atmospheric composition of greenhouse gas and air pollutants Subtask 2: Evaluation of the interaction between air quality and climate policies on the short term (2020) and the long term (2050). Subtask 3: Updating of the core set indicator CSI013 (GHG concentration) with data for 2009 and with new/latest available scenarios Team: H. Eerens (PBL), L.Rouil (INERIS), R Koelemeijer, J van Minnen (PBL), F Sauter, F de Leeuw, G Velders (RIVM), L. Rouil, nn (INERIS), G Mellios (Emisia) EEA proj. man.: J. van Aardenne European Environment Agency Subtask 1: Evaluation of available emission scenarios on how they address the effect of air and climate policies on the atmospheric composition of greenhouse gas and air pollutants • Take stock of finished or ongoing activities with a focus on emission scenarios • Provide an overview of the various emissions projections/backcast scenarios • Evaluate: • the extend these scenarios include short term (2020) and long term (2050) emission trends of both air pollutants and greenhouse gases • how EU policy making is represented (e.g. IPCC scenarios, WEO outlook studies, etc) • how to integrate EU-scale scenarios in global emission scenarios • how to downscale country emission scenarios from global/regional scenario studies. • Prepare recommendations for a consistent set of AP and GHG emission scenarios applying or integrating existing emission scenarios • Prepare a database with a consistent set of AP and GHG emission scenarios • Add. Task: Future (2050) emissions of the European vehicle fleet. European Environment Agency Subtask 1: Evaluation of available emission scenario (~ 35) Author FEEM Tyndall van Vuuren, et al., in prep. van Ruijven et al., in prep. EC, 2011 IIASA Greens/EFA, 2011 EMEP-HTAP, 2011 UNEP, 2011 Shell, 2011 E3MLab "IPCC AR5" JRC, 2010 Greenpeace/EREC, 2010 ECF, 2010 EREC, 2010 IEA, 2010 Van Vuuren, et al., 2010a van Vuuren,et al., 2010b EC- DGEN / IIASA, 2010 EC- DGEN / IIASA, 2010 EIA, 2010 IAEA, 2010 TRL Fraunhofer - ISI Eurelectric, 2009 Royal Society, 2009 PBL/SRC/SU, 2009 Doering et al. Rypdal, et al., 2009 Bollen, et al., 2009 Selin et al., 2009 IEA, 2009 Exxon/Mobil, 2009 iTREN-2030 IEA TRANSvisions World Bank, 2008 US-CCSP, 2007 Title FEEM Probabilistic Long-term assessment of new energy technology scenarios CIAS model Developing new scenarios as a common thread for future climate research The potential impact from hydrogen energy use on the atmosphere Roadmap for a low carbon economy by 2050 Global Energy Assessment The Vision Scenario for the European Union 2011, Update for the EU-27 Ozone & Aerosols - Chapter A3: Emissions & Projections UNEP BC assessment Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 Clean Technology Systems - various scenario NIES/AIM, IIASA/MESSAGE, PNNL/MiniCAM, and PBL/IMAGE RCP scenarios Climate and air quality impacts of combined climate change and air pollution policy scenarios Energy [R]evolution Roadmap 2050: a practical guide to a prosperous low-carbon Europe RE-Thinking 2050 - A 100% Renewable Energy Vision for the European Union Energy technology perspectives 2010 Low stabilization scenarios and implications for major world regions from an integrated assessment perspective Exploring IMAGE model scenarios that keep greenhouse gas radiative forcing below 3W/m2 in 2100 GAINS projections based on Primes 2009-baseline (EU energy trends to 2030 - Update 2009) GAINS projections based on Primes 2010-reference (EU energy trends to 2030 - Update 2009) EIA international energy outlook 2010 Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 Policies ro decarbonise transport in Europe: 80 by 50 A transport scenario for Europe until 2050 in a 2-degree world Power choices: pathways to carbon-neutral electricity in Europe by 2050 Ground-level ozone in the 21st century: future trends, impacts and policy implications Getting into the right lane for 2050 CIRCE emission scenarios Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement Local air pollution and global climate change: A combined cost-benefit analysis Global health and economic impacts of future ozone pollution World energy outlook 2009 Outlook for energy; A view to 2030 The iTREN-2030 Reference Scenario until 2030 Transport, Energy and CO2 - BLUE Map/Shifts scenario Transport Scenarios with a 20 and 40 Year Horizon International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations Year of publication in prep in prep in prep in prep 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2007 European Environment Agency