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Forecasting Ecosystem Shifts in Response to Climate Change Dr. Jim Westervelt Construction Engineering Research Lab Engineer Research and Development Center Dr. William Hargrove Forest Service January 2010 US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG® Outline Question Approach Results Discussion Conclusion 2 BUILDING STRONG® Question Ideal: How and when will ecosystems shift in response to climate change? Two parts: Where can I currently find ecosystem driver conditions that match forecasted driver conditions? How and when will current ecosystems shift in response? 3 BUILDING STRONG® Approach Identify a set of ecosystem drivers Develop global maps of those drivers ► For current and future conditions Conduct a cluster analysis ► To group related areas Correlate clusters with current ecosystems Forecast future ecosystem conditions 4 BUILDING STRONG® Ecosystem drivers 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. Precipitation during the locally hottest quarter Precipitation during the locally coldest quarter Precipitation during the locally driest quarter Precipitation during the locally wettest quarter Ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration Temperature during the coldest locally quarter Temperature during the hottest locally quarter Sum of monthly Temp avg where Temp avg >= 5 deg C Integer number of consecutive months where Temp avg >= 5 deg C Available water holding capacity of soil Bulk density of soil Carbon content of soil Nitrogen content of soil Compound topographic index (relative wetness) Solar interception Day/night diurnal temperature difference 5 BUILDING STRONG® Develop global maps of drivers Choose general circulation models (GCM) ► Hadley and PCM (high and low) Choose climate scenarios ► A1 (higher CO2) and B1(lower CO2) Choose time ► Current, 2050, 2100 Collect maps (for current and 8 futures) 6 BUILDING STRONG® Scenarios A1 scenarios characterized by: ► ► ► ► Rapid economic growth. A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines. The quick spread of new and efficient technologies. A convergent world. B1 scenarios are characterized by: ► ► ► ► ► Rapid economic growth as in A1 Rapid changes towards a service and information economy. Population as in A1. Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies. An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability. 7 BUILDING STRONG® Cluster Analysis Convert all maps to standard-deviation form Run cluster analysis (30,000 clusters) Grouping all 9 sets across the world!! Hargrove and Hoffman 8 BUILDING STRONG® Illinois Raw Clusters PCM B1 Scenario 9 BUILDING STRONG® Illinois Raw Clusters Hadley B1 Scenario 10 BUILDING STRONG® Correlate Clusters with Ecosystems Choose ecosystem map ► GAP • US • 533 types ► TNC • Global • 814 types 11 BUILDING STRONG® Correlate Clusters with Ecosystems TNC GAP 12 BUILDING STRONG® Apply Correlations to Future Conditions 2000 TNC GAP 2050 2100 13 Hadley model – A1 scenario (high-high) BUILDING STRONG® Results 14 BUILDING STRONG® Forest Service Application PCM, Scenario A1, 200-2100 - Chestnut_oak Hadley, Scenario A1, 2050 - Longleaf_pine http://www.geobabble.org/~hnw/global/treeranges/climate_change/index.html 15 BUILDING STRONG® Sample GAP – Fort Knox 16 BUILDING STRONG® Sample TNC – Fort Knox 17 BUILDING STRONG® Sample Similar – Fort Knox 18 BUILDING STRONG® Illinois GAP – Current Cultivated Cropland Pasture/Hay 19 BUILDING STRONG® Illinois GAP – PCM A1 2050 Cultivated Cropland Pasture/Hay 20 BUILDING STRONG® Illinois GAP – PCM A1 2100 Cultivated Cropland Pasture/Hay 21 BUILDING STRONG® Illinois TNC – Current Central Tallgrass Prairie North Central Tillplain Interior Low Plateau Ozarks Crosstimbers and Southern Tallgrass Prairie 22 BUILDING STRONG® Illinois TNC – PCM A1 2050 Central Tallgrass Prairie North Central Tillplain Interior Low Plateau Ozarks Crosstimbers and Southern Tallgrass Prairie 23 BUILDING STRONG® Illinois TNC – PCM A1 2100 Central Tallgrass Prairie North Central Tillplain Ozarks Interior Low Plateau Crosstimbers and Southern Tallgrass Prairie 24 BUILDING STRONG® East-Cent Ill – Similar – Current 25 BUILDING STRONG® East-Cent Ill – HAD B1 2050 26 BUILDING STRONG® East-Cent Ill – HAD B1 2100 27 BUILDING STRONG® Discussion We have a process for turning GCM>RCM forecasts into potential future ecosystem maps. We applied the process to the last round of forecasts Ready to apply to the next round Do s.d. maps solve the apples-to-oranges question? 28 BUILDING STRONG® Next? Two parts: Forecasted conditions currently support what ecosystems? ✔ How and when will current ecosystems shift in response? ► Resilience ► Persistence ► Seed distribution rates ► ?? 29 BUILDING STRONG® Some Netlogo Models Striped Newt, Ft. Stewart Feral Hogs, Fort Benning Quick Spatial Agent-based Cedar Infestation, Nebraska Fire Ants and Cave Crickets, Ft Hood Gopher Tortoise, Ft. Benning 30 BUILDING STRONG® Questions?? Sample Forest Service forecasts of movement of optimal tree habitat: http://www.geobabble.org/~hnw/global/treeran ges/climate_change/index.html ERDC-CERL forecasts of ecosystem shifts around military installations: ► http://earth.cecer.army.mil 31 BUILDING STRONG®