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Forecasting Ecosystem Shifts in
Response to Climate Change
Dr. Jim Westervelt
Construction Engineering Research Lab
Engineer Research and Development Center
Dr. William Hargrove
Forest Service
January 2010
US Army Corps of Engineers
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Outline
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Question
Approach
Results
Discussion
Conclusion
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Question
Ideal:
How and when will ecosystems shift in
response to climate change?
Two parts:
Where can I currently find ecosystem driver
conditions that match forecasted driver
conditions?
How and when will current ecosystems shift in
response?
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Approach
 Identify a set of ecosystem drivers
 Develop global maps of those drivers
► For
current and future conditions
 Conduct a cluster analysis
► To
group related areas
 Correlate clusters with current ecosystems
 Forecast future ecosystem conditions
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Ecosystem drivers
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2.
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16.
Precipitation during the locally hottest quarter
Precipitation during the locally coldest quarter
Precipitation during the locally driest quarter
Precipitation during the locally wettest quarter
Ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration
Temperature during the coldest locally quarter
Temperature during the hottest locally quarter
Sum of monthly Temp avg where Temp avg >= 5 deg C
Integer number of consecutive months where Temp avg >= 5 deg C
Available water holding capacity of soil
Bulk density of soil
Carbon content of soil
Nitrogen content of soil
Compound topographic index (relative wetness)
Solar interception
Day/night diurnal temperature difference
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Develop global maps of drivers
 Choose general circulation models (GCM)
► Hadley
and PCM (high and low)
 Choose climate scenarios
► A1
(higher CO2) and B1(lower CO2)
 Choose time
► Current,
2050, 2100
 Collect maps (for current and 8 futures)
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Scenarios
 A1 scenarios characterized by:
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Rapid economic growth.
A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually
declines.
The quick spread of new and efficient technologies.
A convergent world.
 B1 scenarios are characterized by:
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Rapid economic growth as in A1
Rapid changes towards a service and information economy.
Population as in A1.
Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and
resource efficient technologies.
An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and
environmental stability.
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Cluster Analysis
 Convert all maps to
standard-deviation form
 Run cluster analysis
(30,000 clusters) Grouping all 9 sets across the
world!!
Hargrove and Hoffman
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Illinois
Raw
Clusters
PCM
B1
Scenario
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Illinois
Raw
Clusters
Hadley
B1
Scenario
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Correlate Clusters with Ecosystems
 Choose ecosystem map
► GAP
• US
• 533 types
► TNC
• Global
• 814 types
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Correlate Clusters with Ecosystems
TNC
GAP
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Apply Correlations to Future Conditions
2000
TNC
GAP
2050
2100
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Hadley model – A1 scenario (high-high)
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Results
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Forest Service Application
PCM, Scenario A1, 200-2100 - Chestnut_oak
Hadley, Scenario A1, 2050 - Longleaf_pine
http://www.geobabble.org/~hnw/global/treeranges/climate_change/index.html
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Sample GAP – Fort Knox
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Sample TNC – Fort Knox
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Sample Similar – Fort Knox
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Illinois GAP – Current
Cultivated
Cropland
Pasture/Hay
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Illinois GAP – PCM A1 2050
Cultivated
Cropland
Pasture/Hay
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Illinois GAP – PCM A1 2100
Cultivated
Cropland
Pasture/Hay
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Illinois TNC – Current
Central
Tallgrass
Prairie
North
Central
Tillplain
Interior
Low
Plateau
Ozarks
Crosstimbers and
Southern
Tallgrass Prairie
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Illinois TNC – PCM A1 2050
Central
Tallgrass
Prairie
North
Central
Tillplain
Interior
Low
Plateau
Ozarks
Crosstimbers and
Southern
Tallgrass Prairie
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Illinois TNC – PCM A1 2100
Central
Tallgrass
Prairie
North
Central
Tillplain
Ozarks
Interior
Low
Plateau
Crosstimbers and
Southern
Tallgrass Prairie
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East-Cent Ill – Similar – Current
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East-Cent Ill – HAD B1 2050
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East-Cent Ill – HAD B1 2100
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Discussion
 We have a process for turning GCM>RCM forecasts into potential future
ecosystem maps.
 We applied the process to the last round
of forecasts
 Ready to apply to the next round
 Do s.d. maps solve the apples-to-oranges
question?
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Next?
Two parts:
 Forecasted conditions currently support
what ecosystems? ✔
 How and when will current ecosystems
shift in response?
► Resilience
► Persistence
► Seed
distribution rates
► ??
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Some Netlogo Models
Striped Newt, Ft. Stewart
Feral Hogs, Fort Benning
 Quick
 Spatial
 Agent-based
Cedar
Infestation,
Nebraska
Fire Ants and Cave
Crickets, Ft Hood
Gopher Tortoise, Ft. Benning
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Questions??
 Sample Forest Service forecasts of
movement of optimal tree habitat:
 http://www.geobabble.org/~hnw/global/treeran
ges/climate_change/index.html
 ERDC-CERL forecasts of ecosystem shifts
around military installations:
► http://earth.cecer.army.mil
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