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Economic Governance & Public Financial Management for Climate Change Policies in Indonesia Policy research paper for The 5th CRISU-CUPT Conference Chiang Mai, 8-9 July 2010 Efa Yonnedi (Andalas University) Kurnya Roesad (Australian National University) Frank Jotzo (Australian National University) 1 I. Introduction Research questions How can Indonesia’s central government structure its economic governance framework to better tap into international carbon finance? How do regions benefit from carbon finance flows? Methodology Interviews Review of policy documents, market data etc. Jakarta and Sumatra components Funding Australia-Indonesia Governance Research Partnership (AIGRP) Additional funding from Environmental Economics Research Hub, ANU 2 International climate policy and carbon finance and why it matters to Indonesia A sophisticated international climate policy and carbon finance architecture is evolving Post-Kyoto mechanisms: scaling up, broadening out – the economic crisis may not deter for long Indonesia: large potential for reducing emissions exists, but other domestic policy objectives take precedence 3 The Carbon Finance Framework Global Financial Flows Bilateral Multilateral Private Investment International Financial Institutions (IFIs) ODA UNFCCC Global Mechanisms CDM Global Environmental Facility Capital Markets Adaptation Fund GOI National Mechanisms Private Sector Voluntary & CSR Mitigation & Adaptation Budget Regional Mechanisms CDM REDD (and other) Local Government and Investment Community 4 The Clean Development Mechanism Global project pipeline Largest project categories: industrial and energy expected offset credits 2,700 MtCO2-equivalent by 2012 prices: > 10 euro/t, total revenue > $ 40 billion to 2012 Industrial gases, hydro, energy efficiency, landfill gas, fuel switching, biomass CDM excludes deforestation, very limited in forestry Indonesia’s CDM share Pipeline: 40 Mt = 1.4% of total Comparison: Indonesia 2.8% of developing country emissions excl deforestation and agriculture Reduction potential much greater than realised under the CDM An issue of CDM coverage and procedures, and investment climate 5 50 Global CO2 emissions, business-as-usual 40 Annual emissions, GtCO2 Post-2012 necessities 30 20 10 other USA other India 50% China 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Garnaut, Jotzo & Howes China Update 2008 Substantial emissions reductions in developing countries must be achieved to limit climate change Emerging global goal 50% reduction by 2050 Developing countries around half of global emissions right now, and growing fast (combustion emissions growth >5% pa) Developing countries must be comprehensively involved Will require support from high-income countries 6 Post-2012 proposals Bali Roadmap ‘measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation actions’ sectoral agreements, deforestation (‘REDD’) financing, technology transfer Policy proposals (Stern, Garnaut, many others) Comprehensive commitments/targets for developing countries ASAP, supported by international trading Effective sectoral agreements fast Create incentives to slow deforestation fast Improve the CDM Provide substantial funding for technology development and diffusion 7 Indonesia CO2 emissions: history and a business-as-usual future 2500 2000 Land-use change and forestry 1500 1000 Fossil fuel combustion 500 Mt CO20 /year 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Large potential for mitigation in Indonesia, if policy frameworks are broadened Electricity supply South Sumatera expansion plan for new coal plants: 23,000 MW by 2015, 36,000 MW by 2025 implies roughly 100 MtCO2 by 2015, 160 MtCO2 by 2025 Compare CDM pipeline: ~8Mt/year to 2012 Industry: many options for energy savings Power consumptions grows at around 7%pa, limited by supply capacity Expansion largely in coal-fired plants: 10,000 MW crash program Currently: ca 29,000 MW capacity, emissions 96 MtCO2, ca half of electricity output from coal, emissions 61 MtCO2 eg cement plants – Semen Padang Deforestation remains the big emissions source in the medium term 9 Mainstreaming climate change into the national economic governance framework Indonesia’s climate change policy framework still evolving: complex coordination issues and competition for leadership Integration beginning, but no clear low carbon development strategy or consistent climate finance approach – yet Potential institutional overlaps: policy dialogue, climate finance and donor coordination to be resolved 10 The Climate Change Policy Framework Ministries Key Policy Documents Bappenas Long-term Development Plan (RPJP) 2004-2025 Coord. Economy Medium-term Development Plan (RPJM) 2009-2014 Coord. Welfare National Development Planning: Indonesia’s Responses to Climate Change Environment National Action Plan Addressing Climate Change Forestry National Strategy on Forestry and REDD Mines & Energy National Energy Strategy Finance Budget process National Climate Change Board Reports to President Gov. Work Plan (RKP) 2010 Annual Budget (APBN) Implementation Provincial and local governments Foreign Financing / Grant/ Loan Donor Agencies Practical barriers to carbon finance To date mainly projects under the CDM, but the record falls short of overall emissions reduction potential Sumatra case studies: investment climate, capacity and information especially of local governments, regulatory uncertainties (land tenure!) National policies on energy an electricity not conducive for carbon finance: fuel subsidies, electricity tariffs. 12 Strategically, low carbon economy path in Indonesia: Adopting ‘green’ taxation and fiscal policies aiming to reduce fiscal and energy price distortions. Incorporating carbon finance into public and private investment decisions. Engaging internationally to shape post-2012 climate investment architecture 13 Institutionally, Indonesia: A clearer division of labor between policyformulating and budget/finance coordinating agencies. Clarify the role of the new National Climate Change Council (DNPI), especially with regard to its role as a policy-formulating agency. 14 CDM-specific reforms: Develop a national CDM plan (linked to an overall low carbon growth strategy) and identify key sectors and programs (e.g. renewable power like geothermal, hydro or nationwide landfill gas flaring) Consider establishing a public carbon investment or program agency to facilitate program implementation, speed up CDM application, monitoring and verification procedures, clarify trading and ownership of CERs. Raise awareness in financial/banking sectors to increase lending to CDM projects Keep improving the general investment climate, as CDM investments are like any other investment flows which respond to sound incentives and transparent governance regimes Improve the communication flow between central government and regional government on carbon finance investment opportunities Increase CDM training programs for regional and local policymakers 15 Main Story and Key Messages International level Scaling up and broadening international carbon finance Comprehensively engage developing countries in mitigation effort National level Integration of climate change policy into economic policymaking Policy coordination roles still evolving Carbon finance regime is limited to CDM projects Regional level Significant barriers to CDM and carbon finance more broadly Policy Outlook Need broader policy and financing framework Need clear economic incentives at all levels Need sound domestic investment climate 16 Terimakasih 17 Appendix 18 Bureaucracy: CDM project cycle 10. End of contract period (may be post2012) 9. Certification and Issuance 1. Project Identification Note plus financials (1 month), 2. Project Design Document (2 months) 3. Bank Project due diligence (environmental and social safeguards) 8. Verification 4. Validation (4 months) 7. Construction and start up 6. Project Registration 5. Negotiate and sign Emission Reductions Purchase Agreement (ERPA) 19 Project sponsor Accredited CDM auditor CDM Executive Board ENVCF/Region Indonesia’s GHG Emissions Sources Energy Forests / Land Use Projected Growth Stable Or Declining Data Source: IFCA (2007) Prod’n Above Ground Deforest 107 Planned "Conversion" 100 Prot’d 19 Peatland Deforest Forests / Land Coal Pulp 55 88 Palm 50 43 Peat Drainage (not REDD) Peat Fires (not REDD) Total Strong Fossil Fuels Growth Data Source: IEA 2004 19 143 93 Gas Emissions Growth '94-'04 Total Industry 31.9 35.4 50.7 118 48% 231 Electricity 54.9 25.2 9.9 90 170% 100 Transport 78.0 - 78 74% 131 Resident 41.0 9.0 50 71% 469 Total 179.6 69.6 336 80% 1,260 207 Oil 2,191 86.8 All figures in MtCO2e. Forest data are compiled from various years 20 Barriers: Distorted Energy Prices Central government expenditure components (percent of GDP in 2005) Transfer to Regions 30% (151 trn IDR) Fuel Subsidies 15% (75 trn IDR) Non-Fuel Subsidies 2% (12 trn IDR) Fuel Subsidies Electricity Sector 4% (21 trn IDR) Social Assistance 5% (24.2 trn IDR) Subsidies 24% (120.7 trn IDR) Non-Fuel Subsidies Electricity Sector 3% (13 trn IDR) Entry barriers to investment in power sector: Interest Payments 11 % (58 trn IDR) Others 6% (31 trn IDR) Material Expenditures 6% (33 trn IDR) Capital Expenditures 7% (37 trn IDR) Personnel Expenditures 11% ( 56 trn IDR) Fixed fuel subsidies and electricity tariffs do not provide clear price signals Causing overconsumption Provides less incentives to innovate and invest in renewable energy 21 Source: Compiled from World Bank (2007) Increased Environmental Expenditures bn IDR 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% RKP 2009: around 1.7 trn IDR allocated to climate change actions with Public Works (23%) and Ministry of Forestry (21%) claiming the biggest shares. 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 National nominal environmental expenditures Environmental expenditures as % of total expenditures 22