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UCL Environment Institute Climate Change and Complexity UCL Environment Institute 21stC Challenges: Climate Change and Global Poverty UCL Environment Institute 10 million children starve to death each year UCL Environment Institute Communicate the basic science – it is simple physics UCL Environment Institute Stored Sunlight COAL and Oil UCL Environment Institute 80% from industry and 20% from deforestation but half is absorbed by the biosphere and oceans UCL Environment Institute UCL Environment Institute UCL Environment Institute UCL Environment Institute UCL Environment Institute 2005 Hacking into scientists emails does not make the evidence go away! UCL Environment Institute UCL Environment Institute How ‘super’ are the models? Depends on the data you put In the model. Cooling and warming factors Science is good, but predictions concerning society are not … Think 1910 or even 1980? UCL Environment Institute General Circulation models UCL Environment Institute Society is the biggest unknown - so we build scenarios More economic A1 B: balanced Fi: fossil-intensive T: non-fossil A2 More global More regional B1 More environmental B2 UCL Environment Institute UCL Environment Institute UN Predictions of global population in billions UCL Environment Institute 6oC warming and 1 metre sea level rise by 2100 UCL Environment Institute Climatic Variability, Change and Coping Range Current Climate Changed Climate Climatic Attribute (X) Time (years) Coping Range UCL Environment Institute UCL Environment Institute Summer 2003: Not Anomalous by 2040 Stott et al., 2004 Nature UCL Environment Institute Flood risk Change in storm surge height Height for 50yr return period; 2080s A2 emissions Sea Level Rise UCL Environment Institute UCL Environment Institute What are the effects of climate change more extreme storms, floods, drought, heat waves - may leading to food and water insecurity, - may leading to migration and conflict UCL Environment Institute How can we deal with uncertain climate change? Twin Approaches What ever we do now, there will still be climate change So we need to 1. Mitigate (reduce our carbon foot-print) 2. Adapt (protect our people) UCL Environment Institute What is dangerous climate change? • Exeter Meeting Feb 2005 • G8 9 July 2009 • Agreed at Copenhagen 2°C UCL Environment Institute CLIMATE SENSITIVITY Source: Hadley Centre UCL Environment Institute Contraction and Convergence Global Deal? UCL Environment Institute Total and per capita emissions – target is 2 tons/capita UCL Environment Institute What is the UK plan 1. Decarbonise electricity generation 2. Increase energy efficiency 3. Move to electric dominate transport 4. Adapt to predicted climate change UCL Environment Institute Domestic fossil fuel & industry process CO2 emissions Domestic fossil fuel and industry process CO2 emissions year) (MtCO 2 per (MtCO2 per year) UK possible path to 80% cut by 2050 Services Services 500 500 Residential Residential 400 400 Tran sport Transport Hyd rog en Hydrogen 300 300 Electricity Electricity 200 200 Upstream and& Upstream non-sector sector 100 100 Indu stry Industry 0 2010 2000 non- 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 Agricu lture Agriculture 31 UCL Environment Institute Growth in UK living standards: with 80% emissions cut GDP per capita 2006=100 250 0.5 – 2.0% lower 200 150 100 0 2006 2020 2030 2040 Business as usual 80% emissions cut 2050 32 UCL Environment Institute GOOD NEWS 1 70% of the World Energy requirements for 2030 has yet to be built UCL Environment Institute GOOD NEWS 2: Carbon Trading - ETS and Future US systems UCL Environment Institute UCL Carbon Auditors Limited US Patent for calculating annual carbon flux at a 250m resolution for Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Grid for Terrestrial Carbon Credits Annual Carbon Flux ?C_AFOLU 534.1 0 UCL Environment Institute Gabon Annual Carbon Flux Example of Gabon Customers obtain: Certainty of carbon stock and carbon stock changes, which are: 1. Assessed and monitored against international standards and procedures, providing – 2. Confidence in the accuracy of the data obtained, underpinned by – 3. Highly reputable expertise from the CAL team based at UCL ĘC_AFOLU 198.9 Gabon Gabon Nature Reserve 0 UN REDD+ we need to make a tree worth more standing up and being cut down UCL Environment Institute s to prepare for Adaptation – aim for 2˚C but plan for 4˚C ply nity nal Adaptation essential to protect the people Science can give broad picture of what the future may hold to design policy UCL Environment Institute Some thoughts 1.Policy makers need to understand uncertainties in the science so they can make informed decisions 2. Climate change is just one of many problems that must be tackled, but it can make other problems worse 3. Alternative Energy .. essential as development needs power and we must alleviate global poverty 4. Natural resources such as forest need to commodified to finance development 5. Global deal must include Developing countries – can not fail again like Copenhagen UCL Environment Institute Ethics and morals “The poorest and those who have contributed least to climate change will be first affected” “The carbon footprint of the poorest 1 billion people is around 3% of the world’s total footprint……loss of life will be 500 times greater in Africa”