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Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary
Approach to Problem Solving
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2015
January 13, 2015
Class Information and News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15
– Record of course
• Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site
–
http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
Required Reading and Response
• Assignment on CTools Site
– Dilling and Lemos: Usable Science
Resources and Recommended Reading
• Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html
– And in particular two subsections
• Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect:
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm
• Simple climate models
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm
– Note specific assignment on Ctools site
• Rood .mp4 Introductory Lecture
– https://umich.box.com/s/4vzq7txa60ax7gr19k4d
Outline: Class 2, Winter 2015
• A (very) Little History and the Conclusion
• Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem
• What is (and is not) “science?”
– The scientific method applied to climate
• Relation to Energy, Population,
Consumption
• Response Framework
Some history (see Weart, AIP)
• The first calculations of the ability of water vapor
and carbon dioxide to warm the Earth’s surface
are often attributed to Fourier (1768-1830). (I will
call this the greenhouse effect.)
• Significant improvements to the quantification of
the warming due to greenhouse gases is
attributed to Tyndall (1820-1893)
• Arrhenius in the late 1800s made estimates of
the impact of doubled carbon dioxide
Starting point: Scientific foundation (1)
• The scientific foundation of our
understanding of the Earth’s climate is
based on fundamental principles of the
conservation of energy, momentum, and
mass.
• The scientific foundation of our
understanding of the Earth’s climate is
based on an enormous and diverse
number of observations.
Starting point: A fundamental conclusion
• Based on the scientific foundation of our
understanding of the Earth’s climate, we
observe that with virtual certainty
– The average global temperature of the
Earth’s surface has increased due to the
addition of gases into the atmosphere that
hold heat close to the surface.
Starting point: A fundamental conclusion
• Based on the scientific foundation of our
understanding of the Earth’s climate, we predict
with virtual certainty
– The average global temperature of the Earth’s
surface will continue to rise because of the continued
addition into the atmosphere of gases that hold heat
close to the surface.
– Historically stable masses of ice on land will melt.
– Sea level will rise.
– The weather will change.
Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem
Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Primary
increase comes
from burning
fossil fuels –
coal, oil,
natural gas
The Economist
on 400 ppm
Data and more information
The yearly cycle
of CO2
IPCC 2001
Note: There is
consistency
from many
models, many
scenarios,
that there will
be warming.
(1.5 – 5.5 C)
Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100
2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990.
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC 2001
Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/
1951-1980 base period
See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the
Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006
IPCC 2013: Observed Temperature
IPCC 2007:
The last
~100 years
Quick Summary: IPCC(2013)
IPCC (2007) projections for the next 100 years
Note: From one IPCC
assessment to the next,
there is no fundamental
change in sign and
range.
That’s a glimpse into climate change
• We’ve seen this carbon dioxide curve,
with carbon dioxide increasing.
• I’ve told you that carbon dioxide holds
heat close to the surface.
• I showed curves and graphs of global
averaged surface temperature, past,
present, and future.
• Showed sea level and snow melt.
What parameters/events do we care about?
• Temperature
• Water
– Precipitation
– Evaporation
– Humidity
• Droughts
• Floods
• Extreme Weather
• Air Composition
– Air quality
– Aerosols
– Carbon dioxide
• Winds
• Clouds / Sunlight
The impact of climate change is
Water for Ecosystems
Water for People
Water for Energy
Water for Physical Climate
What is (and is not) “science?”
• The Scientific Method
Scientific investigation of climate change
• What is scientific investigation?
– Scientific method
• How do we get started?
What is science, the scientific method?
• Elements of the scientific method
– Observations of some phenomenon
– Identification of patterns, relationships and the generation of
suppositions, followed by hypotheses
– In principle, hypotheses are testable:
• Experiments: cause and effect
• Prediction instead of experiments?
– Development of constructs, theory, which follow from
successful hypothesis.
• Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like?
– Development of tests, experiments that challenge the
hypotheses and predictions.
• Validate or refute theory and elements from which the theory is
constructed.
What is science, the scientific method?
• Science is a process of investigation
– The results of scientific investigation are the generation of
• Knowledge within a prescribed levels of constraints
• Uncertainty: How sure are we about that knowledge?
– Science does not generate a systematic exposition of facts
• Facts are, perhaps knowledge, whose uncertainty is so low, that
we feel certain.
• Theories develop out of tested hypotheses.
– Theory is NOT conjecture
– Theory is subject to change
– There is constant challenge and testing
– Science requires validation
• Requires that hypotheses and theories are testable
• Requires transparency so that independent investigators can
repeat tests and develop new tests.
What is science, the scientific method?
• Science is a process of investigation
– Requires transparency so that independent
investigators can repeat tests and develop
new tests.
– Do you feel that scientific investigation of
the climate is “transparent?”
– Do you feel that independent investigators
affirm basic conclusions?
Science, Scientific Method
• Scientists DO impart their personalities
and beliefs onto their results
– But the fact that it is independently testable,
ultimately, challenges this potential prejudice.
Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
THEORY
PREDICTION
Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
PROCESSES
MODELING
Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
THEORY
EXPERIMENT
Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
THEORY
EXPERIMENT
Problem Solving
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary
Unification
Integration
(perhaps not unique)
What is science, the scientific method?
• We always have these attributes in the scientific
method
– Observations of some phenomenon / phenomena
– Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look
like?
• How do we affect “control?”
• What is “control?”
• We are seeking cause and effect.
– Validation, can I predict the behavior?
– Can I describe this well enough for someone else to repeat it?
Relation to Energy, Population, Consumption
Climate Change Relationships
• We have a clear relationship between
energy use and climate change.
CLIMATE CHANGE
ENERGY
The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to
combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas. The
vast majority of or energy comes from burning fossil
fuels.
Climate Change Relationships
CLIMATE CHANGE
SOCIETAL SUCCESS
• Consumption // Population // Energy
ENERGY
POPULATION
CONSUMPTION
Societal Success and Energy
Societal Success
Low
High
High
High
This is what we know.
Consumption
Low
Low
High
Low
Energy and Economic Success
What countries are missing from
this figure?
What has changed since 2005?
The Bottomless Well:
Huber and Mills (2005)
Response Framework
Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework
It’s not an either / or argument.
Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO2
Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO2 we put in the atmosphere.
Summary Class 2, Winter 2015
• Greenhouse effect, importance of water
and carbon dioxide to Earth’s climate
known more than 200 years
• Climate Change / Global Warming as a
societal issue is primarily motivated by
release of carbon dioxide from burning
fossil fuels. Warming and consequences
have been observed and more is on the
way.
Summary Class 2, Winter 2015
• Scientific investigation is observation
based, and relies on evaluation of testable
hypotheses.
– Generates knowledge and associated
uncertainty
Summary Class 2, Winter 2015
• Climate change / global warming follows from
use of fossil fuels as energy and the
consumption of energy to improve standard
of living
– Historically, relatively small portion of population
– Future, larger portion of population seeking
improved standard of living
• The framework for responding to global
warming is
– Mitigation: don’t do the things that cause warming
– Adaptation: respond to warming
Thanks
• All of this will be discussed in more detail
during the course.