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Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum, Workshop #4: Modeling Ag-Forest Offsets and Biofuels in U.S. and Canadian Regional and National Mitigation March 6-8, 2007 – Shepherdstown, West Virginia National Conservation Training Center WELCOME !! RELAX – YOU MADE IT -- Ken Andrasko Climate Economics Branch, Climate Change Division Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. EPA 1 Brief History of the 21st Century: Modeling Forums, Coffee, Great People Cooperators: • US EPA, Climate Change Div. • USDA - Forest Service • USDA Office of Global Change • Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada • RTI International • Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions • 1st Forum 2001: model scenario comparisons • 2nd: 2002 • 3rd 2004: Modeling to Support Policy. Farm Foundation summary. • 4th: 2007: Biofuels & deforestation • 5th Forum?: 2008 ?? Impacts and Adaptation?? • 6th Forum?: 2009?? For/ag in Global and climate economic 2 modeling? People Make Things Happen • Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions: • Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: • USDA-Forest Service: • USDA Office of Global Change: • RTI International: • EPA: Brian Murray Bob MacGregor Ralph Alig Jan Lewandrowski Linda Cooper Jules Siedenburg, Ken Andrasko AWARDS CEREMONY Easy Rider Award for Transcontinental Travel Cool Hand Luke Award for Brevity, But Insight Rock of Gibraltar Award: Steadiness Under Fire 3 Modeling Forum #4 Goals • Identify policy community’s needs and priorities for assistance from modelers to improve understanding of the benefits, costs, and co-effects of mitigation options • Assess feasibility of large-scale deployment of biofuels in U.S. and Canada • Assess potential for reducing deforestation in tropics and North America as climate mitigation option. Outreach: • Brief policymaker summary of each topic & longer summary • Possible day-long summary event in D.C.? • Other ideas ? 4 Potential GHG mitigation from forestry & agriculture: How Much? Where? Co-Effects? How Would it Work? Eg, EPA 2005 report: GHG Mitigation Potential in US Forestry and Agriculture $15/t CO2 Eq. Constant Real Price 30,000 Tg CO2 Eq. 25,000 2015 2025 2055 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year Biofuel offsets Forest management Crop management FF mitigation Afforestation Ag CH4 and N2O Ag soil C sequestration 5 How Do Mitigation Options Affect Markets? The Environment? Each Other? [[ Bruce McCarl slides ]] GHG Mitigation and Ag-Markets Multi-environmental Impacts 220 100 200 Nitrogen Subsurface Flow 90 160 Crop prices Livestock prices 140 120 100 Livestock production 80 80 Nitrogen Percolation 70 60 Soil erosion Crop production 60 Crop exports 50 40 20 Pollution (%/acre) Fisher index 180 Phosphorus loss through sediment 0 50 100 150 200 Carbon price ($/tce) 250 300 40 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Carbon price ($/tce) 6 Tradeoff between carbon and traditional production: ag prices rise, forest products fall Are We Ready to Identify What Makes Sense, When, and Where?? Eg, EPA 2005 report: GHG Mitigation Potential in US Forestry and Agriculture Mitigation Quantity (Tg CO2 Eq./year, annualized, 2010–2100) Low (<300) $1–$5 Medium (~300–1,400) High (1,400+) GHG Scenario ($/t CO2 Eq.) $5–$30 $30+ Primary Near-Term Strategies (By 2025) Agricultural soil carbon sequestration Forest management Forest management Emissions reduction (CO2 and Non-CO2) from agricultural activities Afforestation Forest management Forest management Biofuels Afforestation Biofuels Forest management Fossil fuel CO2 and NonCO2 emission reduction options Table 8-2: Potential Implications of Mitigation Level and Time Frame Table 8-2 Primary Long-Term Strategies (Beyond 2025) 7 More information: Report Collaborators: Ken Andrasko & Ben DeAngelo (EPA), Brian Murray, RTI, Brent Sohngen (RTI, Ohio State), Bruce McCarl (Texas A&M), Darius Adams (Oregon State), Ralph Alig (US Forest Service), Download the entire report: Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential in U.S. Forestry and Agriculture (PDF, 154 pp., 4,929 KB) www.epa.gov/sequestration U.S. Greenhouse Inventory: www.epa.gov/climatechange Ken Andrasko, EPA/Climate Change Div 202-343-9281 [email protected] 8 Avoided Deforestation As Mitigation Option ?? • UNFCCC issue: PNG and Costa Rica • Policy questions: • How would baseline for deforestation be set? •Who is willing to pay, how, to whom, for what? How monitor? • Context: in UNFCCC Convention? As bilateral or ODA? Within some formal climate policy regime? • $10 / tC, 147 million additional ha of forest and 12 billion tC by 2055 ( 240 million tC / year) Low Emissions of C • $100 / tC virtually eliminates deforestation [ Sohngen et al., 2006; and Sathaye et al, 2006 ] High Emissions of C 9 North Carolina: new cropland South India: deforested for crops & plantations The Gorilla in the Mists: How Do Climate Impacts Affect Mitigation Options ??? 10 Source: US National Assessment report Our Task: Share Analyses, Help Them Get Clearly Communicated “Dude: Redo the monitoring plan … and don’t sell below $20/ tonne !!” 11