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Where has all the Carbon Gone? Atmospheric oxygen, carbon fluxes and the implications for climate change. Mark Battle (Bowdoin College) Michael Bender (Princeton) Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institute of Oceanography) Pieter Tans (NOAA/CMDL) Jesse Bastide, Carrie Simonds, Blake Sturtevant, Becca Perry Bates College, 12/3/2004 Funding from: NSF, EPA, NOAA GCRP, BP-Amoco, Bowdoin College Organizing Principle: 1 topic superficially Organizing Principle: 1 topic superficially Several topics with vanishing content Outline: • Context: – Climate Change – CO2 as an agent of change • Where does the CO2 go? • How does O2 tell us this? • The basic answer • A more refined answer • Related work in progress Why should we care about climate change? “An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world…” “…most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” “ Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries.” “Emissions of greenhouse gases… continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate.” IPCC, 2001 Why CO2? IPCC, 2001 Why CO2? “ The atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased by 31% since 1750. The present CO2 concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years and likely not during the past 20 million years. The current rate of increase is unprecedented during at least the past 20,000 years.” IPCC, 2001 Where does anthropogenic CO2 end up? Recap: • • • • The planet is warming Human activities are to blame CO2 is the primary culprit Future buildup depends on Atm vs. Land vs. Ocean • Land/Ocean partition is tough to measure The link between O2 and CO2 CO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean O2 = Land biota + Industry O2/N2 changes are small O2/N2 per meg (O2/N2sa – O2/N2st)/(O2/N2st) x106 1 per meg = 0.0001% 1 GtC = 109 metric tons C = 1015 g C 1 GtC from FF 3.2 per meg O2/N2 Graphically… Graphically… Graphically… Graphically… Graphically… The Princeton cooperative flask sampling network Ships of opportunity Research Vessels Automatic Air Recovery Device Version ARK-5 In use at: Cape Grim Ka’imimoana Samoa Barrow Sable Macquarie Princeton Our measurement technique: • IRMS (Finnigan Delta+XL) 32/28 and 40/28 (as well as 44/28 and 29/28) • Custom dual-inlet system • Indirect comparison with standards For more details: Bender et al., In review Battle et al., Science 2000 1991 – 1997 Land sink = 1.4 ± 0.8 GtC/yr Ocean sink = 2.0 ± 0.6 GtC/yr Battle et al. Science 2000 (2467-2470) Is it really that simple? Heat Biology O2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean CO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean Longer records from more sites… Longer records from more sites + Solubility correction + Stratification correction Ocean uptake = 1.7 ± 0.5 Net Land uptake = 1.0 ± 0.6 (1994 – 2002) Bender et al. In review Summary • • • • • The climate is changing Anthropogenic CO2 is to blame O2 can tell us about the fate of CO2 The O2-CO2 linkage isn’t trivial We find a substantial terrestrial sink (volatile?) But the story doesn’t end here… Measurements of O2 and CO2 O2 = Land biota + Industry CO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean fland & focean > 0 for carbon storage by land and ocean Measurements of O2 and CO2 O2 = Land biota + Industry CO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean fland & focean > 0 for carbon storage by land and ocean Determining the O2:CO2 stoichiometry for the land biota What else might we learn? O2 = Land biota + Industry CO2 = Land biota + Industry + Ocean fland & focean > 0 for carbon storage by land and ocean APO: an ocean-only “tracer” APO O2observed + 1.1 CO2observed (I have ignored units) APO: an ocean-only “tracer” APO O2observed + 1.1 CO2observed (I have ignored units) So what? Ocean biology and circulation Ocean biology and circulation fluxes of CO2 and O2 Ocean biology and circulation fluxes of CO2 and O2 atmospheric transport Ocean biology and circulation fluxes of CO2 and O2 atmospheric transport atmospheric composition at observing stations fluxes of CO2 and O2 atmospheric transport atmospheric composition at observing stations APO measurements + good flux estimates rigorous test of atmospheric transport Is this different from other models?