Download Climate Change Talk

Earth Temperatures:
Last week what was the:
1. hottest temperature on Earth and
where was it?
2. coldest temperature on Earth and
where was it?
 We live on an amazing planet.
 We live on a complex planet with a
multitude of interactions.
 One way that we understand this
incredible, yet complex world is
through science.
1. What is Science?
2. What is Weather? What is Climate?
3. Climatic Observations for the Globe and
for New England.
4. The Science of Climate Change
5. The Future
What is Science?
1. You have a question
(What is happening to the world’s climate?)
2. You make relevant Observations
(air temperature, rainfall, cloud cover, etc.)
3. You analyze the observations
and
come up with some conclusions (hypothesis)
4. You (or someone else) test your
conclusions (hypothesis).
5. If the hypothesis passes the tests it is
then viewed as a theory.
most plausible scientific answer
to the question.
Based on Observations
My favorite story about the
scientific method concerns the
work of Dr. Jerry Stanhill.
In the 1990s he re-measured solar
radiation and discovered that it had
decreased some 22% since the 1950’s.
Dr. Stanhill published his findings in the mid
1990’s.
His findings were in direct contradiction with
the current science of global warming – how
could the earth be heating up with decreasing
sunlight?
Despite the contradiction – his work was
published because it followed the scientific
method.
His publication did not make a big splash,
but…………
Eventually others tested his hypothesis
and many different scientists found the
same story – a decrease in solar energy
almost everywhere in the world.
This phenomena became known as
Global Dimming.
Science is transparent – it is based on
repeatable observations and methods.
Science is meant to be skeptical.
1. What is Science?
2. What is Weather? What is Climate?
3. Climatic Observations for the Globe and
for New England.
4. The Science of Climate Change
5. The Future
2. What is Weather?
Weather can vary year to year.
2. What is Climate?
2. What is Climate?
Climate is average (typical) weather for a
specific place on earth based on multiple
years of observations (data).
Climates have specific characteristics
(personalities). Parts of the Equatorial Zone
are called the Doldrums due to the
consistency of temp & precip through the
year.
Many people confuse weather &
climate – weather is day to day
variations while climate is longterm conditions.
Temperature is perhaps the most important
measurement in understanding weather &
climate.
The two most important drivers of
temperature on Earth is the difference
between the amount of:
1) Incoming solar radiation and
2) Outgoing terrestrial (Earth) radiation
Changes in incoming solar radiation come
from a number of sources such as:
1) Changes in solar output (correlated with
sunspots), and
2) Changes in the earth’s orbit around the sun.
3) Global Dimming (changes in the reflectivity of our
atmosphere).
4) Changes on the surface of the earth – reflectivity
(albedo)
Solar irradiance and sunspot number since January 1979 – July 2003
according to NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center
Changes in outgoing energy primarily is
driven by the chemistry of our atmosphere.
1) Greenhouse effect
Based on scientific observations the
main driver of warming temperatures
is the increase in greenhouse gases,
especially CO2.
How do we know that the increase in CO2 is
not a natural increase?
First of all we know that one of the results of
the combustion of fossil fuels is CO2 and we
know that we are burning a lot of fossil fuels.
Second, we can study the composition of the
atmosphere and the type of CO2 isotopes that
are there.
Climate change skeptics say that current
warming is due to natural causes
“Although increasing CO2 levels from human
emissions may have enhanced our modern, modest
global warming, the lion's share of the warming
rebound is likely from natural forces, which
produced the same in the long ago past, multiple
times.”
But they never state what those natural forces
are. Science has only been able to find one main
source for the current warming: Greenhouse
gases.
Through a variety of techniques scientists are
able to understand past global temperatures.
1) Ice cores have samples of atmospheric gases from
the past locked up.
2) Ocean sediments have information about past
climates.
3) Tree rings tell about climate conditions.
4) Soil samples lock information from the past.
Through these techniques scientists have
been able to reconstruct past climate changes
and determine potential drivers of those
changes.
We have been able to find evidence of changes
in all of the drivers: solar output, changes in
earth reflectivity, atmospheric reflectivity,
changes in the earth’s orbit, and most
influential – amount of CO2 in the
atmosphere.
1. What is Science?
2. What is Weather? What is Climate?
3. Climatic Observations for the Globe
and for New England.
4. The Science of Climate Change
5. The Future
1) My Science Question is:
Is climate changing in New England and if so
how is it changing?
2) Observations:
Air temperature observations from across New
England from 1895 to 2012.
Temperature data for each state in
New England monthly average for
118 years (1895 – 2012).
To compare New England with global
changes, downloaded:
The NASA Goddard Institute for Space
Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature
Analysis (GISTEMP) data set.
1) My Science Question is
2) Observations
3) Analyze the Observations and come
up with some conclusions and create an
hypothesis.
Using the New England air temperature data I
created:
1. Annual averages for each state and for all of
New England from 1895 to 2012.
2. Seasonal Averages for each state and for all
of New England from 1895 to 2012.
3. 5-year and Decadal (10-year) Averages
(annual and seasonal) as well.
Then I created annual anomalies which are
the differences between a yearly average
and the average for the entire time period.
Annual Anomaly =
year 1 ave (minus) the average for the 118 years
Annual and Seasonal anomalies show how the
individual years or seasons vary from the longterm average.
On the Table there are 105 data points.
- 101 data points show an increase
4 data points show a decrease
Data points combined show:
Cumulative decrease of: 0.820 F
Cumulative increase of: 245.980 F
Another way to look at changing temperature
is to see how vegetation is changing in the
region.
I will now show satellite imagery of changes in
photosynthesis for the region.
So …………….
What are your conclusions from what I
have shown you?
Other studies concerning climate change in New England
have found:
 Winter warming
 Decreased snowfall
 Fewer days with snow on ground
 Lake ice out dates earlier
 Lilac bloom dates earlier
 More frequent extreme precipitation
 Earlier spring runoff
 Sea levels continuing to rise
 Hodgkins et al., 2002; 2003; Wolfe et al., 2005;
 Wake and Markham, 2005; Wake et al., 2006
There are no published research
articles which show Northeast North
America cooling.
Based on my scientific analysis of temperature
observations and the results of other researchers’
results I would theorize that New England is
warming at the seasonal, annual and decadal
levels and this warming is similar to global
patterns of warming.
Does this theory seem reasonable?
So, there is clear scientific
evidence that New England is
warming.
Similar to global warming the warming in
New England has spatial and temporal
variation.
But what about the “Polar Vortex?”
A number of global climate change critics say that
with record cold temperatures in the US during
January how could there be such a thing as
global warming?
January was cold in New England and central US
– so based on global temperatures back to 1880
(134 years) was January the coldest month ever?
The 10th coldest? The 50th coldest?
This past January (January 2014) was
the 130th coldest January on record at
the global level – or the 4th hottest ever.
February 1985 was the last month that was
not warmer than the 20th century average for
that month.
It is a GLOBAL phenomenon and we live in
LOCAL areas.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/extreme-weather-polar-vortex-and-jet-stream-unstableexpert-says/
http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/climate-change-skeptics-winter-coldglobal-warming-still-real-20140107
Expert presenter Peter Sinclair explains how global
warming and climate change are causing severe weather
including changes in the jet stream and the polar vortex.
Published on Feb 24, 2014
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9Da-PrBqMU
1. What is Science?
2. What is Weather? What is Climate?
3. Climatic Observations for the Globe and for New England.
4. The Science of Climate Change
5. The Future
Currently the scientific community
is in strong agreement that not only
is the Earth warming, but it is
human activity which is driving that
warming and it is primarily through
the use of fossil fuels that we are
heating the atmosphere.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqPuKxXUCPY
There is now considerable research
concerning how the earth is changing due
the rising temperatures.
Remember, the earth is a complex system
and the heating of the earth can cause
what seem like contradictions, such as the
polar vortex. A current situation is the
Pacific Ocean.
We are in a new climate – the climate that you
and many generations before you has changed.
The last month to have a monthly average less
than the 20th Century mean was February 1985,
more than 29 years ago.
The 2 main characteristics of this new climate
are:
1. Characterized by an ever changing climate (not
stable, not as predictable as our past climate)
2. Warmer temperatures.
As the climate continues to change there will
be surprises, there have already been some
significant ones:
Jerry Stanhill – Global dimming dilemma –
clean up air - more powerful GH Effect
Methane released from a warming tundra
(Frozen Methane hydrates on the arctic floor)
Based on the scientific method it is clear that:
New England is warming
The Earth is warming
Human activity is driving the global
warming. Through the use of fossil fuels we
are keeping more heat in the Earth system
by increasing the greenhouse effect.
Our consumption and desire for fossil fuels is
similar to the actions of heroin addicts:
To get our fix we blow the tops off
mountains, drill in deep water, and
frack the earth.
Mountain top mining – West Virginia
1. What is Science?
2. What is Weather? What is Climate?
3. Climatic Observations for the Globe and for New England.
4. The Science of Climate Change
5. The Future
So what will the future bring?
Due to this warming in the future New
England can expect:
Hotter temperatures in all of the seasons,
decreased snow cover over time, increase in
heavy precipitation events, changes in species
composition of our forests, lakes, ocean over
time, increase in various pests, diseases,
threats to our food supply (locally & globally),
continued increases in sea-level, etc.
surprises
For here in Salem, one of the
biggest issues is sea-level rise and
potential storm surge activity.
What should we do to minimize the detrimental effects
of the new climate:
1. Adaptation: Begin to adapt to the changes
which are happening and will continue to happen,
such as sea-level rise.
2. Mitigation: Decrease the amount of
greenhouse gasses to minimize future extreme
climate change. Put a true cost on Carbon – we
can no longer use the atmosphere as a dumping
ground.
We are altering the world in so many ways.
There are 2 more observations I want to
show you, 2 that really make me stop and
wonder.
The political bickering has to stop
and we need to change our way of
life to a more sustainable way
where we stop trashing the earth,
stop altering the heat balance of the
earth and think of future
generations.
AIRS satellite Image
How many of you have children or
Grandchildren born after February 1985?
The earth has many cycles and feedbacks as
climate changes.
Changing climate kicks in