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Climate Change and Conservation Atmospheric Inputs All Atmospheric Inputs Sea Surface Temperature Levitus et al. 2000 Sea Surface Temperature Levitus et al. 2000 Sea Level Rise Consequences • Sea levels will increase – Low lying areas will be flooded – Coral reefs may drown if sea level rise is faster than coral growth rates – Barrier islands may be changed • Loss of pack ice habitats in Antarctic and Arctic – Declines of pinnipeds/penguins dependent on edge of pack ice • Ocean circulation patterns will change – Upwelling may be reduced – Coastal areas may have increased primary productivity – Increased CO2 may also increase plant production UV Radiation Rozema et al. 2002 UV Radiation Rozema et al. 2002 UV Radiation Cummings et al. 2002 Global Climate Change Increased Ultraviolet Radiation • Increases in ultraviolet radiation are thought to have large impacts on the photosynthetic functioning of algae • Studies such as Neale et al. (1998) have investigated UVB on microalgae have been investigated in Antarctic systems • One study suggests a 6-12% drop in primary productivity due to photoinhibition of phytoplankton • Reduction of primary productivity decrease CO2 uptake • UVB may also inhibit development or increase mortality of eggs and larvae Impacts in the Antarctic Weimerskirch et al. 2003 Impacts in the Antarctic Weimerskirch et al. 2003 Changing Ice Area Changing Ice Area Gaston et al. 2005 Changing Ice Area Jenouvrier et al. 2005 Impacts in Temperate Areas McGowan et al. 1998 El Nino and PDO McGowan et al. 1998 El Nino and PDO El Nino and PDO Global Climate Change in the Pacific Ocean • McGowan et al. (1998) have analyzed patterns of global climate change and correlations within and among sites in the Pacific Basin • Large warming episodes in the California Current System are linked to equatorial El Ninos • The coastal California El Ninos result in lower nutricline, deep chlorophyl maximum layer and lower secondary production of zooplankton Global Climate Change in the Pacific Ocean • They also note that there is a longer-term interdecadal trend associated with an intensification of the Aleutian low and westerly winds • This has resulted in increased SST and physical stratification in the eastern North Pacific • This results in shallower depth of mixing, less nutrients in the euphotic zone, and decreased primary (phytoplankton) and secondary production (zooplankton, sea birds, fishes) Global Climate Change in the Pacific Ocean • They find different patterns for the Gulf of Alaska where interannual variation in SST and zooplankton have not been related to El Nino events • However large interdecadal increases in SST, zooplankton, and fish landings are reported • The intensification of the Gulf of Alaska circulation (and weakening of California Current) has accompanied a shallowing of the mixed layer depth Impacts in Tropical Areas Impacts in Tropical Areas Impacts in Tropical Areas Impacts in Tropical Areas Hoegh-Guldberg 1999 Impacts in Tropical Areas Impacts in California Impacts in California Long-Term Trends Changes in Calcification • Increasing CO2 can lead to changes in the oceans concentration of calcium carbonate • Increased CO2 will increase the amount dissolved in ocean water • This will increase carbonic acid and lower the ocean’s pH • This will reduce the amount of aragonite in the water possibly to below saturation • This will make it more difficult for corals and other organisms that use calcium carbonate Changes in Calcification Changes in Calcification Changes in Calcification Millenial Cycles Bond et al. 2001 Decadal Cycles Fligge and Solanki 2001 Decadal Cycles Larsen 2005 Decadal Cycles Larsen 2005