Download Increasing the use and usability of participatory assessments

SCENARIOS
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
A European perspective on sustainability
Professor Jacqueline McGlade
Executive Director, European Environment Agency
Reykjavik, Iceland
19 November 2005
1 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
SOER 2005
- Country Perspectives:
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Greenhouse gas emissions
Energy consumption
Renewable electricity
Emissions of acidifying substances
Emission of ozone precursors
Freight transport demand
Area under organic farming
Municipal waste
Use of freshwater resources
2 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
SCENARIOS
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
The European Environment Outlook
concept
• Exploring sustainability of baseline projections (2020-2030),
alternative scenarios and variants (up to 2100).
• Highlight the interactions between and implications of
sectoral developments and environmental issues. Link to
past and ongoing Commission exercises when appropriate.
• Provide a coherent quantitative assessment as feasible,
supplemented by qualitative analyses where needed.
• Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers.
3 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
SCENARIOS
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
The Analytical Framework
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Outlooks developed for various environmental themes
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GHG emissions and climate change
Air quality (CAFE)
Water stress
Water quality
Key driving forces (socio/technico/economic, DG TREN)
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Demography
Economy activity
Technological and sectoral developments
Consumption patterns
Energy and transport
Agriculture
Waste and material flows
Common set of assumptions for driving forces to ensure consistency and facilitate cross-cutting analysis
4 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
SCENARIOS
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
Integrated quantitative assessment
'Household Consumption'
EEA Technical Report
'Environmental aspects of
enlargement'
Advisory Group
'Environment & health'
EEA Technical Report
'Halting the loss of biodiversity'
EEA Technical Report
State of the Environment and Outlook report
2005
'Sustainable use of
natural resources'
EEA Technical Report
'Climate change & sustainable
energy'
EEA Technical Report
'Europe’s Environment & the
Global Dimension'
Multimedia
'European Environment Outlook'
EEA Technical Report
Results also used as input to other Technical Reports
Climate change and air
pollution outlooks
Agriculture outlooks
Water stress and water quality
outlooks
Waste and material flows
outlooks
Models
Models
Models
Models
PRIMES (energy & transport)
POLES (energy & transport)
TIMER/FAIR (GHGs emissions)
RAINS (air pollution)
IMAGE (climate change)
Euromove (ecosystem composition)
CAPSIM (sectoral model)
WaterGAP (water use and availability),
A model on nutrients from UWWT plants
A macro-econometric waste & material
flows model
5 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
SCENARIOS
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
Index (1990 = 100)
SCENARIOS
Key messages
110
105
100
•
The more fragmented
European society is
expected to increase some
environmental pressures
95
90
1990
2000
2010
2020
EEA-31
EU-15
New-10
2030
Population development 1990-2030
Index (1990 = 100)
units
140
3.5
130
3.0
120
2.5
110
2.0
100
1.5
90
1.0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Number of households (EU-15)
Number of households (New-10)
Number of persons per household (EU-15)
Number of persons per household (New-10)
6 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
Key messages
Mt CO2 eq/year
t CO2 eq/cap/year
5,000
20
4,500
18
4,000
3,500
•
European greenhouse gas
emissions are expected to
meet short-term targets if
all additional policies and
measures planned so far
are implemented
16
EU15 Kyoto
Target (-8%)
14
3,000
12
2,500
10
2,000
8
1,500
6
NMS8 Kyoto
Target (-7.8%)
1,000
4
500
2
0
0
1990
2000
EU-15
2010
New-10
2020
Per capita (EU-15)
2030
Per capita (New-10)
Degree Celsius
5
•
European greenhouse gas
emissions are expected to
exceed long-term targets
set to prevent harmful
climate change
4
3
2
EU long-term sustainable
target (6th EAP)
1
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Global temperature change-'Baseline'
7 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Global temperature change-'Low emission scenario'
SCENARIOS
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
Key messages
SCENARIOS
Nitrogen
(N)
Phosphate
(P)
Potassium
(K)
•
The recent enlargement of
the European Union is
expected to provide both
opportunities for and
threats to the environment
Organic supply
(N, P, K)
-10
-5
0
5
10 15
New-8
20
25
30
35 40
EU-15
45
50
55
%%
50
70
80
90
%
Nitrogen
(N)
Ammonia losses
(NH3)
Phosphate
(P)
Mt CO2 eq/year
t CO2 eq/cap/year
5,000
20
4,500
Potassium
(K)
18
4,000
16
EU15 Kyoto
Target (-8%)
3,500
14
3,000
12
2,500
10
2,000
8
1,500
6
NMS8 Kyoto
Target (-7.8%)
1,000
4
500
Nitrous oxide
(N2O; fertilizer)
Methane
(CH4; animals)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
New-8
30
40
60
EU-15
2
0
0
1990
2000
EU-15
New-10
2010
2020
Per capita (EU-15)
8 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
2030
Per capita (New-10)
Use of fertilisers, Nutrient balances, ammonia
losses and GHG emissions (2020/2001)
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
•
SCENARIOS
Key messages
Air pollution and its
impacts on health and
ecosystems are expected
to decline significantly
NOX
NMVOC
SO2
NH3
PM10
PM2.5
0
10
MFR (2030)
20
30
Baseline (2030)
40
50
60
Baseline (2010)
70
80
90
NEC ceiling (2010)
Emissions of air pollutants (Baseline and
Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR)
scenarios, index 100 in 2000)
9 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
100
Index
110
Year 2000
Excess of nitrogen deposition (2000 and
2030 for the MFR scenario)
Key messages
•
Water use in Europe is
expected to become more
sustainable, however many
Mediterranean river basins will
continue to face water stress
Water Exploitation Index (%)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2030
ro
gu
s
Ta
Eb
Po
zi
lI
r
G ma
ua k
G
d
ua ian
da a
lq
ui
vi
r
2000
Ki
D
au
ga
va
R
ho
G ne
ar
o
N nne
em
un
as
Lo
i
D re
an
ub
Vi e
st
ul
a
R
hi
ne
O
de
r
El
be
D
ou
ro
Se
in
e
0
Water stress in large European river basins,
2000 and 2030
10 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
SCENARIOS
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
Key messages
SCENARIOS
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
kg N / inh. / yr
4.5
4.0
•
The Urban Waste Water
Treatment Directive is
expected to reduce
significantly the overall
discharge of nutrients from
point sources
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
%
100
0.5
Group 1 (EU-15)
90
Group 2 (EU-15)
Group 3 (EU-15)
Percent of population
80
New-5
70
0.0
Group 1
(EU-15)
60
50
Group 2
(EU-15)
Group 3
(EU-15)
New-5
40
Current situation
30
UWWT Directive
20
10
0
Current UWWT
situation Directive
Primary
Current UWWT
situation Directive
Secondary
Current UWWT
situation Directive
Tertiary
11 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook
Current UWWT
situation Directive
Without treatment
Discharges of nitrogen and phosphorous
from wastewater treatment plants
SCENARIOS
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION.
12 - [SIS] – European Environment Outlook