Download 01a-EEO__Anita_Pirc - Research for Environment and

European environment outlook
EEA Report No 4/2005 and some other projections
Scenarios Group
‘Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the environment’
European Environment Agency
State of the environment reporting should
inform decision makers also about the
future
What can outlooks and scenarios offer?
• Identify emerging issues
• Projections can replace monitoring burden
after a certain period
• Inform decision makers about “what if..”
options in the future
• Identify uncertainties, driving forces and
surprises
European Environment Agency
Contribution of
European environment outlook 2005
• baseline projections (2020-2030), alternative scenarios and
variants (up to 2100) within EU 25.
• Interactions between and implications of sectoral
developments and environmental issues. Link to past and
ongoing European Commission exercises when appropriate.
• Distance to target analyses
• Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers.
European Environment Agency
The Analytical Framework
•
Key socio-economic developments
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Demography
Macro-economy
Technological and sectoral developments
Energy and transport
Agriculture
Waste and material flows
Consumption patterns
Outlooks developed for various environmental themes
•
•
•
•
GHG emissions and climate change
Air quality
Water stress
Water quality
European Environment Agency
Demography
Macro-economy
European Environment Agency
DemographyChanges in Europe’s
demographic patterns
•
•
•
aging societies,
rural depopulation
growing numbers of
households
Projected percentage change in total population
from 2005 to 2030 (UN)
China
India
NWE
US
EECCA
SEE
Canada
-10
0
10
20
30
40
European Environment Agency
350
Gross Domestic Product - GDP
(Index, Situation in 1990 = 100)
Macro-economy
300
250
200
150
100
50
The macro-economic
assumptions for Europe are
moderately optimistic, and
entail challenging tradeoffs in light of achieving
sustainable economic
development.
0
1990
2000
2010
EEA-31
2020
EU-15
2030
New-10
Projected percentage change in GDP per capita
from 2005 to 2030 (OECD)
EECCA
WEU
US
India
c
China
CEU
Canada
0
50
100
150
200
250
European Environment Agency
•
How will aging and migrations influence
economy and environment?
•
How will growing economic prosperity and
changing demography influence society
consumption habits especially in the eastern
part of Europe?
•
How will EECCA and SEE countries deal with
expected economic growth in relation to the
needs for environment protection? Will growth
be knowledge based or only profit driven?
European Environment Agency
Technology and sectors
development
European Environment Agency
Key messages – Technological and sectoral developments
•
Technological progress is
moderate but essential in
key areas such as energy,
agriculture and water, but
no technological
breakthroughs are
assumed.
The service sector is
expected to retain its
predominance in the
European economy and be
instrumental in sustaining
economic growth.
20,000
17,500
15,000
Gross Value Added
(Billions of Euro)
•
12,500
10,000
7,500
5,000
2,500
0
1990
Industry
2000
Construction
2010
Services
2020
Agriculture
2030
Energy sector
European Environment Agency
•
Despite continuing
increases, total energy
consumption is expected to
decouple significantly in
relative terms from GDP.
Without technological
breakthroughs, the
transport sector is
expected to continue to
grow significantly in terms
of energy requirements,
and to crystallise
environmental concerns
due to ever-increasing CO2
emissions to the air.
80000
140
70000
120
60000
100
50000
80
40000
60
30000
40
20000
20
10000
0
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Total energy consumption (EU-15)
Total energy consumption (New-10)
Total energy consumption (EU-15) - Index
Total energy consumption (New-10) - Index
European Environment Agency
Total energy consumption
(Index, Situation in 1990 = 100)
•
Total energy consumption
(Peta Joule)
Key messages – Energy and transport
Outlook freight transport by mode,
2000 - 2050
Outlook passenger transport by mode,
2000 - 2050
EECCA +
Baltic
States
India
China
India
100%
EECCA
+ Baltic
States
SEE +
some
of EU
10
OECD North
Americ
a
OECD Europe
OECDEurope
SEE+Some
EU 10
OECD-North
America
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
rail
road
20
0
20 0
50
20
0
20 0
50
20
0
20 0
50
20
0
20 0
50
20
0
20 0
50
20
0
20 0
50
rail
20
0
20 0
50
20
0
20 0
50
20
0
20 0
50
20
0
20 0
50
0%
20
0
20 0
50
20
0
20 0
50
0%
road
air
World Business Council for Sustainable Development
European Environment Agency
Key messages – Agriculture
•
Yields increase is expected
to be the main source of
production growth in
Europe over the next 20
years.
Nitrogen (N)
Ammonia losses (NH3)
Phosphate (P)
•
Mineral fertiliser use is
expected to increase
considerably in the new
Member States, but
remains lower than in the
EU-15 in absolute terms;
this may lead to increases
in associated
environmental pressures.
Potassium (K)
Nitrous oxide (N2O; fertilizer)
Methane (CH4; animals)
-30
-20
New-8
-10
0
EU-15
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Expected change between 2001 and 2020 (in %)
European Environment Agency
•
To what extent will sectors integrate environmental measures?
Energy
•
Will EU be able to achieve a more sustainable demand both in terms of
security and environment?
•
Will we mange to improve energy efficiency ?
Transport
•
Will we develop more sustainable patterns of transportation use?
•
Can we expect any technology breakthrough in this area?
Agriculture
•
Will EECCA and SEE countries put emphasis only on intensive agriculture and food
processing industry or will they promote rural development including traditional organic
farming as priority?
Technological developments
•
How will globalisation impact on spreading of technology innovation?
•
How fast will new and clean technologies penetrate the market that is still
dominated by old industries? And become accessible?
European Environment Agency
Waste
European Environment Agency
Key messages - Waste
•
In the EU-15, most waste
streams are not expected
to decouple significantly
from GDP. In the New-10,
relative decoupling of
waste from GDP is
expected.
GDP
Municipal
Industrial
Construction & demolition
Paper & cardboard
Glass
•
As waste generation is
expected to continue to
grow across Europe, the
policy target of absolute
decoupling is not met.
Waste oils & used tyres
Packaging
0
20
EU-CC2
40
60
New-10
80
100
120
EU-15
Growths in waste quantities and GDP (2020/2000)
European Environment Agency
140
%
Environment
European Environment Agency
Key messages – GHG emissions & climate change
•
The short-term European
greenhouse gas emission
targets are expected to be
met, if all additional
policies and measures
planned are implemented.
The long-term European
greenhouse gas emission
targets, set to prevent
harmful climate change,
are expected to be
exceeded.
5
Temperature change
(°C, compared with pre-industrial level)
•
4
3
baseline
2
EU long-term sustainable
target (6th EAP)
alternative
1
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
Global average temperature change in 'baseline scenario'
Global average temperature change in 'low emission scenario'
European Environment Agency
2100
Key messages – Water stress
100%
90%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
vir
ia
na
G
ua
d
al
qu
i
ak
Irm
ua
d
G
gu
s
Ta
Ki
zil
Eb
ro
Po
Se
in
e
ur
o
Do
El
be
de
r
O
in
e
Rh
e
st
ul
a
Vi
nu
b
Da
Lo
ire
e
un
as
m
Ne
ar
on
n
on
e
G
Rh
ug
a
va
0%
Da
Water use is expected to
decrease markedly in
most of Europe; however
many Mediterranean river
basins will continue to
face water stress.
Water exploitation index
•
80%
2000
2030
Water stress in large European river basins, 2000 and 2030
European Environment Agency
Key messages – Water quality
•
The UWWT directive is
expected to lead to a
significant reduction in
the overall discharge of
nutrients from point
sources.
Population connected to urban wastewater treatment
(% of total population)
100
%
90
Group 1 (EU-15)
Group 2 (EU-15)
Group 3 (EU-15)
New-5
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Current
UWWT
situation Directive
Primary
Current
UWWT
situation Directive
Secondary
Current
UWWT
situation Directive
Tertiary
Current
UWWT
situation Directive
Without treatment
Group 1 (EU-15) countries: The Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland; Group 2 (EU-15)
countries: Belgium and Luxembourg; Group 3 (EU-15) countries: France, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Portugal, and
Spain; New-5 countries: Estonia, Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Slovenia
European Environment Agency
Key messages
•
The EU seems to be on track to meet the targets set for
a number of issues (e.g. nutrient emissions from point
sources). However, it continues to face significant
challenges with respect to greenhouse gas emissions,
alternative sources of energy and waste .
•
The current shift to more integrated approaches
towards environmental policies provides further
opportunities to improve the future state of Europe's
environment.
•
Most environmental concerns have common drivers of
change and are linked through a range of interactions.
European Environment Agency
Do countries have a good knowledge and
overview about existing state of the
environment situation and possible
development in the future?
Gaps in the EEA outlook analyses
European Environment Agency
Consumption patterns
Settlement patterns have
considerable impacts at
specific locations on water
resources, land use and
natural capital, particularly
in connection with shifts in
lifestyles and societal
preferences.
350
30
300
25
GDP/
worker
250
20
200
15
150
10
Pop>65y.
100
5
50
0
1990
2000
Unit of GDP per worker (EU-15)
% people over 65 (EU-15)
2010
2020
2030
Unit of GDP per worker (New-10)
% people over 65 (New-10)
European Environment Agency
People over 65
(% of total population)
•
The environmental
pressures of consumption
are generally lower than
those of production, but are
expected, as in the recent
past, to grow significantly.
Unit of GDP per worker
(Index, Situation in 1990 = 100)
•
Lack of data, models
• Biodiversity,
• Defuse sources of pollution
• Detailed consumption patterns outlooks
• Natural hazards
European Environment Agency
Lack of feedback analyses
•
Impact of climate change and water availability
to the agriculture and to the forestry
•
Macro-economic feedbacks of environment
policies
European Environment Agency
Lack of understanding of underlying
process
•
Urban and rural environment
•
Spatial and land use outlook (PRELUDE
scenarios)
•
Health and chemicals outlooks
•
Quality of life
•
Extreme changes in the environment
European Environment Agency
EEA’s environmental scenarios portal
Web Portal
• EEA Reports
• Links to
• institutions
• networks
• studies
• Library
• News
• Glossary
• Bibliography
http://scenarios.ewindows.eu.org
European Environment Agency
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION.
European Environment Agency
Update
• Report published on the EEA web site on 11th September
2005 and shortly introduced at the Informal Environment
and Agriculture Councils of ministers.
• The full report is available for download at:
http://reports.eea.eu.int/eea_report_2005_4
• Supporting background information can be found on the
'Environmental Scenarios - Information Web Portal' at:
http://scenarios.ewindows.eu.org/reports/fol949029
• Hard copies are also available.
European Environment Agency
Approach to air and climate change
outlooks
Driving forces:
- socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline
- alternative ‘Low GHG emissions’ and ‘variants’ scenarios
Models:
- transport & energy: PRIMES, POLES, (TREMOVE, SCENES)
- emissions: TIMER, FAIR
- air & climate change: RAINS, IMAGE
Output:
- emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6, SO2,PM10, …)
- climate change (temperature, precipitation)
- impacts (ecosystem composition, growing season)
European Environment Agency
Approach to agriculture outlooks
Driving forces:
- socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline
- additional assumptions based on CAPRI model and CAP
- fertilizer calibrated to match EFMA data
- no climate change assumptions
Models:
- CAPSIM (partial equilibrium model, economic accounts)
output:
- cropping patterns (22 per country)
- livestock patterns (11 animal products per country)
- nutrient balances for N, P, K
- gas emissions (N2O, CH4, NH3)
European Environment Agency
Approach to waste outlooks
Driving forces:
- socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline
Models:
- macroeconomic model developed by the EEA ETC Waste &
Material Flows
Output:
- waste: municipal, industrial, C&D, packaging, paper &
cardboard, glass, tyres & waste oil
- material flows: minerals, biomass extraction, fossil fuels
European Environment Agency
Approach to water outlooks
Driving forces:
- socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline
- climate change scenarios from IMAGE and PRIMES models
- additional structural & technological change assumptions
Models:
- WaterGAP (integrated water quantity model)
- simple model on urban waste water treatment plants
Output:
- water stress, water availability, water use (by domestic,
electricity, industry, agriculture sectors) - per 0.5° grid
- waste water from households, waste water treatment,
nutrient discharges from treatment plants
European Environment Agency
Alternative scenarios and variants
• Air and climate change:
•
•
Air: Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions
CC: ‘Low GHG emissions’ scenario, low economic growth,
accelerated penetration of renewables, accelerated
decommissioning / adoption of nuclear
• Agriculture:
•
Best practices for fertiliser handling, liberalisation of animal
product markets (Extended CAP reform), a stronger EURO
• Waste and material flows:
•
‘Low GHG emissions’ scenario (for fossil fuels only), low
economic growth, Landfill Directive (biodegradable municipal
waste)
• Water stress:
•
‘Low GHG emissions’ scenario, low economic growth, nonconvergence of per capita water use in the New-10
European Environment Agency