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Weathering the Change
Action Plan 2
ACT Climate Change Council
8 November 2011
Overview
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How did we get to this point?
The Government’s commitment
Elements of Action Plan 2
Consultation and processes
Questions
How did we get to this point?
2000
• ACT Greenhouse Gas Strategy
– Australia’s first institutionalised response to climate change
– evidenced weak understanding of data measurement
– targets proved to be unachievable
2006
• ACT Weathering the Change
– improved understanding of science and measurement
– concentration on awareness and demonstration projects
– some good results but overall disjointed outcomes
A new focus
• The Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act 2010
sets out voluntary greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets:
per person emissions peak by 2013
40% below 1990 level by 2020
80% below 1990 level by 2050
zero net emissions by 2060
• ACT Government Carbon Neutral framework (draft)
– zero net emissions by 2020
Action Plan 2 underlying vision
The vision
• By 2060, the ACT is a sustainable and carbon neutral city that
adapts to a changing climate.
Measured by
• minimising the ACT’s impact on global climate change by
achieving the ACT’s legislated GHG reduction targets
• ensuring a fair society in a low-carbon economy
• strengthening the ACT’s capacity to respond to a changing
climate, and
• creating a more sustainable future.
Business as usual
5,000
4,500
Projected emissions with current measures
(includes the national carbon price)
4,000
kt CO2-e
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
reduction by 2020
3,000
2200 kt CO2-e
reduction2200
bykt2020
CO2-e
3,500
Projected emissions with current measures
(includes the national carbon price)
Target trajectory to zero netTarget
emissions by 2060
trajectory to zero net
emissions by 2060
The Challenge
Source: ACT Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2009
Getting there
The four key outcomes of Action Plan 2 are:
1. Reducing emissions in the ACT
2. Ensuring a fair society
3. Adapting to climate change
4. Leading to a sustainable future
The modelling
• pitt&sherry were commissioned to report on measures that
the ACT could adopt to meet our emissions reduction targets
• The measures examined are presented as ‘pathways’ i.e. a mix
of measures
• The analysis focuses on:
– the amount of emission reductions (abatement potential)
that could be achieved by each measure and
– the net cost of achieving those emission reductions
Pathways for reducing GHGs
Five possible pathways are presented in Action Plan 2 to initiate
discussion on the appropriate measures that the ACT could take
to meet its GHG targets:
1. Renewable energy
2. Buildings, transport, waste and renewable energy
3. Buildings, transport, waste plus gas generated electricity and
offsets as required
4. Buildings, transport, waste and offsets
5. Carbon offsets
Pathways (contd)
Each pathway has different implications for:
• reduction in emissions from different sectors such as
electricity, gas, transport, waste;
• cost-effectiveness in reducing GHG emissions;
• time-frames before a significant outcome is achieved;
• sources of emissions that remain in 2020 and the ability to
achieve carbon neutrality in 2060; and
• practicalities of implementation in a small jurisdiction.
What is not addressed in the Action Plan
• Not prescriptive. The final outcome could be one or none of
the proposed Pathways or a combination of them.
• Does not recommend any particular pathway.
• Does not commit expenditure to any specific initiatives.
• All steps (initiatives) along the final Pathway will be subject
to usual Cabinet and Budget processes.
Pathway 1: Renewable energy
• Assumes a steady increase in uptake of
renewable energy
5000
• Remaining emissions (largely from transport
fuels) managed by purchase of offsets
4500
4000
3500
kt CO2-e
• Assumes no new energy efficiency measures
are adopted, and that the ACT community
makes no further adjustments to their
behaviour
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
• Capital investment (for example)
- a 1,066MW wind facility
• No ACT-based generation
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 Target
Offsets
Renewable energy
Emissions projection
Pathway 2: Buildings, transport, waste
and renewable energy
• Commercial buildings are upgraded and energyefficient technologies adopted
5000
4500
4000
• Co- and tri-generation installed in large buildings
• Reduce transport emissions by shifting to
sustainable options and electric vehicles
• Assumes continued uptake of renewable energy
• No carbon offsets required in 2020
• Capital investment (for example)
- a 30MW energy-from-waste facility
- a 650MW wind facility
kt CO2-e
• Improve residential heating and phase out
electric hot water systems
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 target
Sustainable waste
Energy efficient buildings
Renewable energy
Sustainable transport
Emissions projection
Pathway 3: Buildings, transport, waste,
gas-fired electricity generation and offsets
• Similar to Pathway 2, but with a shift in
source of renewable energy (e.g. wind)
to gas
• Offsets required to meet target
• Capital investment (for example)
- a 250MW combined cycle gas
turbine (CCGT)
4500
4000
3500
kt CO2-e
• Phased out prior to the 2060 target
5000
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
- complemented by a 30 MW energyfrom-waste-facility
2020 target
CCGT (250MW)
Sustainable transport
Offsets
Sustainable waste
Energy efficient buildings
Pathway 4: Buildings, transport, waste
and offsets
5000
• Similar to Pathways 2 & 3, but relies on
the purchase of offsets rather than
changes in energy generation
• Significant ongoing cost to the ACT
Government and the community
• Capital investment
- nil
4000
3500
kt CO2-e
• Heavily reliant on offsets to meet target
4500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 target
Sustainable waste
Energy efficienct buildings
Offsets
Sustainable transport
Emissions projection
Pathway 5: Carbon offsets
• No change in the use or supply of
energy
5000
4500
• Complete reliance on offsets to meet
target
• Capital investment
- nil
3500
Kt CO2-e
• Significant ongoing cost to the ACT
Government and the community
4000
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TOTAL BASELINE WITH EXISTING MEASURES
Offsets
2020 target
Consultation and processes
• Submissions will be invited from the public
• Community engagement
– Launch of Draft AP2 (est. 14 Nov 2011)
– World Cafe event (est. 30 Nov 2011)
– Focused workshops (est. 1-10 Dec 2011)
– Written submissions (est. close Jan 2012)
• Final Action Plan 2 to be developed incorporating
community feedback on the preferred pathway
Questions