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Climate Change Legislation & Agriculture 2009 Ag Outlook and Management Seminars Department of Economics Climate Change Source: www.conservationreport.com Department of Economics Climate Change Source: Congressional Budget Office Department of Economics GHG Emission Rules • Greenhouse gas rules are coming – Whether through legislation or regulation • EPA has the authority to regulate GHGs – Via Clean Air Act • However, Congress would like to set the rules – H.R. 2454, American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, • Passed in U.S. House of Rep. on 6/26/09, 219-212 – S. 1733, Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act • Introduced 9/30/09, In committee (actually, six committees) Department of Economics U.S. GHG Emissions Department of Economics Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007 CO2 Emissions Department of Economics Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007 CH4 Emissions Department of Economics Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007 N2O Emissions Department of Economics Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007 GHG Emission Categories Department of Economics Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007 GHG Emissions by Sector Department of Economics Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007 Agricultural GHG Emissions Department of Economics Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007 GHG Emission Statistics Department of Economics Source: EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007 Climate Change Legislation American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R. 2454) • Requires utilities to supply an increasing percentage of their demand from a combination of energy efficiency savings and renewable energy (6% in 2012, 9.5% in 2014, 13% in 2016, 16.5% in 2018, and 20% in 2021-2039). • Provides for issuing, trading, banking, retiring, and verifying renewable electricity credits. • Establishes targets to cap and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, annually, so that GHG emissions from capped sources are reduced to 97% of 2005 levels by 2012, 83% by 2020, 58% by 2030, and 17% by 2050; and establish a federal GHG registry. • Provides for trading, banking and borrowing, auctioning, selling, exchanging, transferring, holding, or retiring emission allowances. Source: Congressional Research Service Department of Economics Climate Change Legislation Agriculture provisions in H.R. 2454 • Provides some exemptions from the GHG emission reduction requirements for agriculture and forestry • Provides incentive-based approach to GHG emission reduction/capture • Allows USDA to help establish eligible GHG offset practices and review of those practices • Shifts question on indirect-land-use to an independent panel for study with EPA and USDA to review in the future • Allows for a specific exemption for livestock (enteric fermentation from ruminant animals) from uncapped emissions guidelines Department of Economics Source: Craig Raysor, Gillon & Associates, PLLC Lots of Analysis • The EPA has funded the development of several models that are capable of examining the impact of this bill and other similar bills • The environmental economists who worked on these models are very well respected and the work is sound • However, the only certainty in the bill is the limit on carbon, everything else is assumption driven Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009 Department of Economics Key Assumptions • The US economy was already on a slow growth path for energy consumption, the analysis assumes that this continues • Coal fired plants largely shut down and are replaced by nuclear • Enormous reliance on international and domestic offsets • If we cannot build the large number of nuclear plants or find the international offsets, then the price of carbon will increase at about twice the reported rate Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009 Department of Economics Energy Sources Source: EPA Analysis of H.R. 2454, June 23, 2009 Department of Economics GHG Emissions & Abatements Source: EPA Analysis of H.R. 2454, June 23, 2009 Department of Economics Domestic Offsets • Implementing regulations not yet written • Uncertainty about how the offsets would work in agriculture, particularly for conservation tillage, but the intention is clearly to use these offsets as a way to stimulate agricultural incomes • Consideration of leakage is prohibited pending a study • Heavy reliance on the growth of trees on pasture and crop land Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009 Department of Economics Domestic Offsets Department of Economics Source: EPA Analysis of Waxman-Markey, April 20, 2009 Domestic Offsets Table 1. Rental values ($/acre) for U.S. cropland used to grow trees Carbon Price ($/ton) Region 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 Corn Belt 81 121 161 202 Delta States 127 190 253 316 Lake States 98 147 195 244 Southeast 115 173 231 288 60.00 242 380 293 346 90.00 363 569 440 519 Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009 Department of Economics Shifting Land Patterns Department of Economics Source: EPA, “Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential in U.S. Forestry and Agriculture”, Nov. 2005 International Offsets • Must be a developing country that is a member of a unilateral or multilateral emissions reduction agreement with the United States • Must have the technical capacity to monitor, measure, report and verify forest carbon fluxes resulting from deforestation • Must have the capacity to reduce emissions from deforestation, including strong forest governance • The international offset project itself must be shown to result in permanent verifiable reductions that are net of any leakage measures Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009 Department of Economics Allowances 2016 2030 Department of Economics Source: Congressional Research Service, June 2009 Carbon Prices Increase Over Time Source: EPA Analysis of H.R. 2454, June 23, 2009 Department of Economics Prices Are Sensitive to Offsets Source: EPA Analysis of H.R. 2454, June 23, 2009 Department of Economics Energy Price Paths Source: EPA Analysis of H.R. 2454, June 23, 2009 Department of Economics Impacts on an Average Household Source: EPA Analysis of H.R. 2454, June 23, 2009 Department of Economics Impacts on Tillage Practices Source: EPA Analysis of H.R. 2454, June 23, 2009 Department of Economics Allowance Price Comparison of Results Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009 Department of Economics Assumptions Impact Results Fall 2007 CARD Data (Baseline) Fall 2008 CARD Data (Baseline) Searchinger et al. GreenAgSiM Model used US Deforestation LCA Model Agricultural Production Ethanol increase (mill. liters) Difference in Area Harvested (thou. ha.) Difference in Emissions (million tons of CO2eq) Payback Period (years) Yes Yes No No No No No GREET GREET GREET GREET GREET GREET BESS No No No No Yes No Yes 55,950 55,950 55,950 29,859 29,859 29,859 29,859 10,817 10,817 10,817 6,076 6,076 (1,281) 6,076 3,801 4,179 3,218 1,425 1,514 403 1,514 166.69 183.27 141.13 117.18 124.41 31.50 55.40 Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009 Department of Economics Climate Change Legislation Department of Economics Source: USDA, Office of Chief Economist “A Preliminary Analysis of the Effects of HR2454 on U.S. Agriculture” Climate Change Legislation Source: FAPRI-Missouri, Report #05-09 Department of Economics Climate Change Legislation “Since farming is energy intensive, it will be hit hard by Waxman-Markey's energy price hikes. In addition to higher diesel fuel and electricity costs, prices for natural gas-derived fertilizers and other chemicals will also rise. Everything else affecting agriculture, from the cost of constructing farm buildings to the price of tractors and other farm equipment, will also go up. Consequently, farm profits are expected to decline by 28 percent in 2012 and will be an average 57 percent lower from 2012-2035.” Department of Economics Source: Ben Lieberman, Heritage Foundation, July 21, 2009 Results from a Budget Based Analysis • USDA and FAPRI calculated the direct impact on corn production costs at 6% to 8% due to higher energy and fertilizer costs, actual increase could be twice this amount • In addition, livestock producers will face higher utility costs • Total for these two impacts is about $3.50 per hog by 2030 • Benefits of about $1.50 per hog for fertilizer displacement and/or manure offsets Source: ISU, Dermot Hayes presentation, Oct. 2009 Department of Economics Concluding Thoughts • The potential for cropland conversion points to higher crop prices and feed costs • Crop prices will likely track carbon prices • Cropland conversion will benefit landowners through higher rents • Agriculture will experience the benefits and the costs of climate change legislation Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? Department of Economics