Download Title Arial 40pt

Review of UNEP modelling results applying SLCP
mitigation measures in Asia and discussion of key
priorities for Southeast and Northeast Asia
Kevin Hicks and Johan Kuylenstierna
High Level Sub-regional Consultation on Advancing Action on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs)
In Southeast and Northeast Asia
19 Aug 2014, Bangkok, Thailand
[email protected]
Talk Outline
• Introduction to UNEP Assessments and the SLCP 16
mitigation options for black carbon, methane and coemitted species
• Benefits of measures by region for human health,
crops and climate change
• Conclusions and some thoughts on the way forward
Two key reports that brought political attention to SLCPs
Available at: http://www.unep.org/ccac/
A package of 16 measures can substantially reduce emissions
and achieve multiple benefits
• Mitigation measures ranked by net climate impact (using GWP) of emission
changes
• Considering CO, CH4, BC, OC, SO2, NOX, NMVOCs, and CO2
• Picked the top measures – about 90% of warming benefit
Black carbon measures
• addressing emissions from incomplete
combustion
- BC, OC, methane, CO, NMVOCs
Methane measures
• reducing methane emissions
No technical breakthroughs
These measures already implemented in many countries
Cost-effective
The measures aiming at reducing methane emissions
Intermittent aeration -paddy
Recovery from landfill
Coal mine methane capture
Recovery from wastewater
Recovery from oil and gas
Recovery from livestock manure / feed
Reducing pipeline leakage
The measures aiming to reduce black carbon emissions
Improved biomass stoves
Modern coke ovens
Cooking with clean fuel
Remove big smokers / DPF
Improved brick kilns
Pellet biomass heating stoves
Coal briquettes replacing coal
Reduce agricultural burning
Reduce flaring
Effect of measures on global emissions projected in 2030
relative to Reference emissions in 2030
9 BC measures fully implemented in 2030
7 Methane measures fully implemented in 2030
Effect of 16 measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to 2005
9 BC measures
reduce
̴80% of BC
Reference: CH4 increases
7 CH4 measures reduce
̴25% of CH4 (2005); or
̴ 40% relative to 2030
BC measures
reduce
CO
This integrative approach allows benefits of measures to be
assessed in terms of climate, human health and food
security
The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures
recovery from coal mines
oil and gas production
gas pipelines
municipal waste
Recovery from livestock
manure / feed
Intermittent aeration of
continuously
flooded rice paddies
Relatively low uncertainty regarding temperature impact
The share of global temperature reduction from
implementing black carbon measures
Bigger
uncertainty
for impact
on climate
Regional Climate Changes: Preventing Disturbance of
Rainfall Patterns
Change in atmospheric forcing at 2030 relative to the reference case in the
two models
•
•
Dark areas: where the biggest energy change to warming of the atmosphere
occurs
This drives regional weather pattern changes
2.4 million avoided premature deaths - from reducing outdoor
PM alone
Approx. equal
number avoided
from reducing
indoor air pollution
Premature mortality avoided (1000s of deaths)
2.4 million avoided premature deaths - from outdoor PM
S, W & C
Asia
1.15
million
deaths/yr
Africa
200
thousand
deaths/yr
Health Benefits by Country
Avoid loss of 52 million tonnes (within a range of 30–140
million tonnes), 1–4 per cent, of the global production of
maize, rice, soybean and wheat each year
Impact of
the
Troposphe
ric Ozone
on Crop
yields
Exposure of wheat to ozone in
Pakistan
Clean air
Air with
ambient
ozone
This analysis can be linked to specific policy
measures in different regions
Global crop yield loss avoided due methane measures
How much does it cost?
Costs of implementing 16 measures
50% of black carbon and methane emission reductions:
Low cost or no-cost  Recovery of methane, better fuel efficiency
Black carbon measures
• Improved stoves
• Upgraded brick kilns
Methane measures
• Recovery from fossil fuel production
(coal mines; gas distribution)
• Waste / landfill management
SLCPs as a way to achieve SDGs
Issue of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is closely
linked to many pressing development needs:
• Health
• Sustainable energy access
• Food security
• Urban development: waste, sanitation/
sewerage, and sustainable transport
• Adverse climate change impacts
National level: Fast start actions
Why national action?
• Most of health benefits related to air pollution reduction
close to emission sources.
• Integrate measures with local sustainable development
• Integrate measures with national climate policy.
Options for fast action
• Target obvious SLCP sources for immediate action
• Consolidate actions in National Action Plan
Specific Action on Methane
• Near-term benefits will only be realised if specific action on
methane is taken
General Conclusions
• Addressing SLCPs is a development issue – countries reducing emissions
will benefit from improved health - avoid 2.4 million premature deaths;
+INDOOR!; crop yields - avoid > 50 million tonnes loss every year
• 16 identified measures, implemented by 2030, would reduce global warming
by 0.5oC (0.2-0.7oC) in 2050 halving the warming projected by the Reference
Scenario
• Substantial regional climate benefits: e.g. Asian rainfall patterns
• Near-term measures would improve the chance of not exceeding 2oC
target, but contingent on ambitious CO2 reductions, starting now
(complementary strategies; not alternatives)
• The identified measures are all currently in use and many measures
achieve cost savings over time.
• much wider and more rapid implementation is required to achieve the
benefits outlined.
Way forward in NE and SE Asia
• Global analysis shows that this region can potentially achieve the
largest social and economic benefits from tackling SLCPs
• Need to understand regional specificities and the potential for
integration of SLCP measures with existing policies
• Large health benefits for indoor and outdoor pollution can be obtained
by tackling residential combustion sources in the region
• Ongoing policy to control NOx and NMVOC emissions to control the
peak ground level ozone problem in Asia should be carefully
integrated with the SLCP measures to obtain greatest benefits in each
sector
• Mitigation options and policies for sectors that produce emissions that
have short and long-term impacts on climate should be carefully
designed to avoid tradeoffs
Translating the Science into
Policy and Action
http://www.unep.org/ccac/