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Transcript
Agrophysical Research Institute
www.agrophys.ru
ARI Working Group of the ADAGIO
Dr.Mikhail V. Nikolaev is the responsible person
within the ADAGIO project
Research area: Adaptation of cultivation practice
to climatic and environmental changes;
development of agroecological analogue method
in relation to climate change; vulnerability and
adaptation assessments
Prof. Igor B.Uskov is an expert
Research area: Agro-climatic modeling including ‘soil- plant- atmosphere’ system
modeling; various types of agricultural amelioration; microclimate control; influence of
climate change on microclimate
Dr.Dmitriy V. Nasonov is an expert
Research area: microclimate of agricultural field; statistical modeling and simulation by
using stochastic weather generator applied to climate scenarios; GIS presentation
Olga V. Kononenko is a post graduate student
Research area: Studying the energy-caused synoptic processes such as dust storms,
their climatology and predictability
Galina V. Danilova is a post graduate student
Research area: Application of the analogue modeling to studying the accelerated
successions in plant communities under climate change
Relevant Agrophysical Research Institute planned targets
under
Scientific Programmes of Russian Academy of Agricultural Sciences
2007 Target entitled: “Design for regionalization of adaptation measures and strategies for
agroecosystems sustainability in conditions of changing climate.”
2006 Target entitled: “Landscape related response of cereal ecosystems to climate change in
Russia and options for adaptation.”
Result: Assessments based on the analyses of potential changes in climatic resources and
possible responses of cultivation practice in order to maintain high and stable crop yields in
different landscape zones.
2005a Task entitled: To evaluate the effects of climate change on potential distribution of cereal
crops within cultivable area of Russia.
Result: Possible shift in distribution of cereal crops within cultivable area by 2020-2030
2005b Task entitled: To make the agroclimatological background for landscape adapted
agricultural systems planning within North-Western territory of Russia, the limitations at current
climate regimes and environmental risks under climate change taken into consideration.
Result: Modification of agroecological analogue method to defining the areas vulnerable to
potential risk by pests, diseases and weeds with warming process.
2004 Task entitled: To evaluate possible response of crop management practice to climate
change in different agroecological regions of Russia.
Result: Possible changes in optimum fertilization and irrigation rate as well as timing of farm
operations in different agroecological regions by 2020-2030.
2003 Common Target entitled: “Theoretical background and methodology for field experiments for
further application to landscape adapted agricultural systems planning changes, in climate
taken into consideration.” ( 36 months duration )
List of relevant books (monographs)
Uskov I.B. et al. 2008 (Authors collective of Agrophysical Research Institute)
“Agrometeorological factors of potential productivity.”
(Version under editing, total volume 586p.; in Russian,resume in English)
Nikolaev M.V. and V.P.Yakushev 2004
Part 3.2 “Adaptation of the agrotechnologies and rational distribution of field crops in a
changing climate.” p.274-299 In: “Consequences of global climate change for
agricultural sector of economy.” Russian Academy of Agricultural Sciences issue,
Moscow, 331p. (in Russian,resume in English)
Uskov I.B. (Eds.:Yakushev et al.) 2004 Recommendations for landscape adapted agricultural
systems planning in the North-Western territory of Russia. Agrophysical Research
Institute issue, St.Petersburg, 170p.(in Russian)
Nikolaev M.V. 1994 “Present climate and crop yield variability.” Gidrometeoizdat,
St.Petersburg, 200p. (in Russian,resume in English)
Kurtener D.A. and I.B.Uskov 1988 “Control of agricultural field microclimate.”
Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 263p. (in Russian,resume in English)
Kurtener D.A. and I.B.Uskov 1982 “Climatic factors and the heat transfer in field and
controlled environments.” Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 231p. (in Russan,resume in
English)
* Gidrometeoizdat is the Official Hydrometeorological Public House of Russian Federation/
USSR
List of relevant papers
Nikolaev M.V. 2007 Adaptation of cropping systems to climate change in Russia .An example for cool
temperate and temperate regions. Proceedings of IAMFE Regional Conference of Nordic Countries “Field
Experiments for Sustainable Agriculture in the Changing World.”, October 23-25 2006, St.Petersburg,
Russia, IAMFE issue, p.68-71
Nikolaev M.V. 2007 Climate change effects on cereal cropping in Russia and options for adaptation.
Slovak Meteorological Journal, Vol.1, p.
( Nikolaev M.V. 2006 Impact of climate change on cereal cropping systems in Russia and options for
adaptation. Proceedings of Conference Abstracts “Bioclimatology and Water in the Land”, International
Bioclimatological Conference, September 11-14 2006, Strecno, Slovak Republic. Comenius University
issue, Bratislava )
Nikolaev M.V. 2007 Cereal crop zonation in a changing climate. In book: “Physical, chemical and climatic
factors of land productivity”. St.Petersburg State Technical University issue, p.307-319 (in Russian)
Nikolaev M.V.and V.A.Semyonov 2007 Agroclimatological background of the North-Western territory of
Russia for landscape adapted agricultural systems planning. In book “Research and investigations for
empirical basis of landscape adapted agricultural systems planning”. St.Petersburg State Technical
University issue, p.14-23 (in Russian)
Nikolaev M.V. 2007 Application of spatial analogs method to evaluation of climate change impacts on
agroecological conditions in the North-Western territory of Russia. In book:” Research and investigations
for empirical basis of landscape adapted agricultural systems planning”. St.Petersburg State Technical
University issue, p.147-153 (in Russian)
Eitzinger J., Kubu G., Lemeshko N.A., Minin V.B., Nikolaev M.V., Toude J.A., Uskov I.B. 2004 Modern
methodology in agrometeorology and soil hydrology for sustainable land management in Austria and
Russia. Proceedings of the International Conference and Exhibition on Mechanization of Field
Experiments (IAMFE/Russia 2004), 5-9 July 2004, St.Petersburg- Pushkin, Russia, p.218-225
TASKS
FACING TO
ARI WORKING GROUP OF THE ADAGIO
Agrophysical Research Institute
(in cooperation with State Hydrological Institute)
will contribute the following activities:
To promote dissemination of the ADAGIO advances and know-how in the aim of
actual/potential adaptation of agriculture to climate change to further application in
agricultural decision-making at different regions of Russia
To instruct and learn agricultural managers and farmers as well as practical experts of
local agricultural research centers on the use of appropriate and feasible potential
adaptation measures and technologies in the framework of training course under ARI in
the post-harvest period
To consult agricultural enterprisers and farmers in the adaptation measures applying,
the environmental and economic risks under climate change taken into consideration
To recommend feasible adaptation strategies to agricultural policy-makers at
regional/local levels as well as regionalization of know-how for further practical use
Monitoring of the use efficiency of adaptation measures and technologies in Russia’s
regions to further application in agricultural sector of economy
Collection, processing and analysis of information; integration of the ADAGIO project
results, e.g. in the form of ‘Recommendations’ for adaptation of agriculture in Russia’s
regions at environmental risk under climate change
In this connection, the climatological design for regionalization of adaptation
options within European part of Russia is illustrated. Regional adaptation
measures and technologies at current climate regimes and with climate change
are presented as well.
Climatological design for regionalization of adaptation measures and
technologies in agricultural sector of economy within European part of Russia
( Nikolaev M.V., 2007)
Region:
European part of Russia north 61o n.1.(Type of climate: cool temperate, humid/sub-humid)
North-Western Russia (Type of climate: temperate, humid)
Central Russia (Type of climate: temperate, humid/sub-humid)
Chernozem Centre and Middle Volga (Type of climate: temperate, semi-arid)
Lower Volga and southern Pre-Ural (Type of climate: temperate, semi-arid/arid)
Northern Caucasus (Type of climate: warm temperate, semi-arid/sub-humid)
Potential adaptation measures and technologies at current climate regimes and under climate change
(Nikolaev and Uskov, 2007)
North-Western Russia
(Type of climate: Temperate, humid)
Limitations at current climate regimes
(vulnerabilities)
Potential measures at current
climate regimes with different
durations
Examples for feasible adaptation
measures and technologies
Agroclimatic
Crop breeding
Changes in sowing dates
Crop rotation
Fertilization
Soil liming
Drainage
Crop insurance
Limitations under climate change
(vulnerabilities)
For wintering:
water logging,
rotting out
For growing
season:
lodging
Weather
Cold
waves
Wet
spells
Agroecological
Soil
acidization
Agroclimatic
Winter heavy
precipitation
Water
logging
(increase)
Rotting out
(increase)
Weather
Cold waves
(decrease)
Wet spells
(decrease)
Agroecological
Soil
acidization
(decrease)
Diseases,
pests,
weeds
(increase)
Plant breeding for highyielders of
sillage maize
Plant breeding for fiber flax
Plant breeding for rape
Plant breeding for sillage sunflower
Plant breeding for clover varieties
Switching from early season cultivars
to mid-season cultivars
Improvement of crop protection
More diseases resistant cultivars
More lodging resistant cultivars
Chemical amelioration
Change in optimum fertilization
Potential adaptation measures and technologies at current climate regimes and under climate change
(Nikolaev and Uskov, 2007)
Lower Volga and Southern Pre-Ural
(Type of climate: Temperate, semi-arid / arid)
Limitations at current climate regimes
(vulnerabilities)
Potential measures at current
climate regimes with different
durations
Examples for feasible adaptation
measures and technologies
Agroclimatic
Crop breeding
Mulching
Fertilization
Snow retention
Snow ploughing
Irrigation
Shelter belts
Crop insurance
Limitations under climate change
(vulnerabilities)
For wintering:
autumn
drought, frost
killing
For growing
season:
droughts
Weather
Heat
waves
Dust
storms
Agroecological
Wind
erosion
Soil
salinizatio
n (partly)
Agroclimatic
Frost killing
(decrease)
Drought
periods
(increase)
Dry winds
(increase)
Weather
Heat waves
(increase)
Dust storms
(increase)
Agroecological
Aridization
Plant breeding for wheat durum
Plant breeding for hard winter wheat
Plant breeding for maize hybrids
Plant breeding for millet
Plant breeding for sorghum
Switching from summer crops to
winter crops
Drought tolerant cultivars
Change in optimum fertilization
Change in irrigation rates
Crops use less water
Snowhedges
New snow ploughing aggregats
Wind break belts
List of end-users
Farmers and agricultural managers of Leningrad region (e.g.
farm “Rapti”,high input level)
Practical experts of regional/local agricultural research
centres from different parts of Russia (in the framework of
training course)
Experts of NW Russia’s Research Centre for crop- and seed
breeding
Experts of Agrochemical Service of Leningrad region
Members of Interregional Public Organization “Association for
assistance of field experiments and investigations”
Specialists of Agricultural Research institutions and Centres
Teachers of Universities (agricultural, hydrometeorological
and economic/financial profiles)
List of involved institutions
NW Russia’s Agricultural Research Institute
“BELOGORKA”
ALL Russian Institute of Plant Industry “VIR”
NW Russia’s Research Centre of Russian Academy of
Agricultural Sciences
All Russian Institute of Crop Protection “VIZR”
Academy of Management and Agribusiness of NonChernozem zone of Rus.Fed.
St .Petersburg State Agrarian University
Russian State Hydrometeorological University
Russian State University of Economics and Finance
Planned meetings
Lecture series in the framework of “Seminar of
agricultural decision makers of the Southern
district of Leningrad region” (April, 2007)
Lecture series in the framework of “National
School for Young Researchers/Practical Experts
on Precision Agriculture” Training course under
Agrophysical Research Institute, St.Petersburg,
24-26 September, 2007
Thank you