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Global Energy and
Technology in the Long Term
Energy for a Future Without Carbon
Emissions
AAAS Annual Meeting
Jae Edmonds & John Clarke
19 February 2005
Joint Global Change Research Institute
Washington, DC
Thanks to
Organizers of the Session
US DOE Office of Science
EPRI
Other sponsors of the GTSP
2
Some Observations
Climate change is a long-term issue with a characteristic time scale
of 100 years or more, but with implications for present decision
making.
Climate is all about technology and managing the development and
deployment of succeeding generations of a suite of technologies
over the century ahead.
Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations means that the
largest changes to the global energy system are in the second half
of the 21st century.
Stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases require a
credible commitment to limit cumulative emissions of carbon over
the century.
Changes in the global energy system that could lay ahead are
potentially massive.
The value of improving the suite of available energy technologies is
large.
3
The UNFCCC
Article 2
The ultimate objective…
...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system. (p.5)
4
Stabilizing CO2
Concentrations
Stabilization of
greenhouse gas
concentrations is the
goal of the Framework
Convention on
Climate Change
Stabilizing the
concentration of CO2
is a very long term
problem
Stabilization means that GLOBAL emissions must peak in
the decades ahead and then decline indefinitely thereafter.
5
Stabilizing the Atmosphere
Free venting of carbon must eventually be
phased out,
But, not necessarily fossil fuels.
6
Stabilizing CO2
Base Case and “Gap” Technologies
Assumed Advances In
• Fossil Fuels
• Energy intensity
• Nuclear
• Renewables
The “Gap”
Gap technologies
• E.g. CCS
7
Timing of Emissions Mitigation
Under WRE
700
Emissions Reductions
from Reference
OGF
to Reach WRE Path
500
2005-2050
2050-2095
652
400
464
300
328
200
248
208
84
22
pp
m
v
pp
m
v
40
65
0
pp
m
v
55
0
pp
m
v
0
75
0
100
45
0
Billions of tonnes C
600
8
There Are No “Silver Bullets”
When It Comes to Stabilization
Energy Intensity
Improvements



Industry
Buildings
Transportation
Wind and Solar
Biotechnology



Soils
Biomass crops
Advanced biotechnology
Nuclear


Fission
Fusion
Carbon Dioxide Capture
and Storage


Geologic
Terrestrial (soils, trees)
Advanced Transformation
Systems



Electricity
Hydrogen
Bio-derivative fuels
Non-CO2 Greenhouse
Gases
9
Technologies that are presently not
part of the reference case could expand
their roles dramatically and relative
roles may change with time.
Filling The
Technology Gap
10
Technology Contributions Change
With Place and Time
11
Technology Alone Won’t
NECESSARILY Stabilize CO2 Concentrations
25,000
Energy Related Carbon Emissions
A reference case with advanced
technology development of carbon
capture and H2, but no climate
policy.
TgC per Year
20,000
A reference case
with continued
technology
development, and
no climate policy.
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1990
Emissions path that stabilizes
CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm.
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
12
Technology Helps Control Cost
$250
Why control
costs?

Wasted
resources
mean other
worthy
products go
un-produced.
Or, we settle
for lower
environmental
quality.
Carbon Tax
Uniformly &
Efficiently
Applied Over
Time and
Space
$225
$200
1990 US$ per Tonne C

A reference case with continued
technology development, and a limit
on CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm.
$175
$150
$125
A reference case with
advanced technology
$75 development of carbon
capture and H2, and a limit
$50 on CO2 concentrations at
550 ppm.
$100
$25
$0
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
13
CO2 Capture and Storage
B2 with Stabilization
Annual Carbon Capture and Storage
Cumulative Carbon Capture and Storage
250,000
7,000
6,000
200,000
Gas_H2
5,000
Coal_Synf
4,000
Coal_elec
3,000
Gas_elec
150,000
Coal_Synf
Coal_elec
100,000
Oil_elec
2,000
Gas_H2
Oil_H2
Oil_H2
TgC/yr
TgC/yr
Coal_H2
Coal_H2
Gas_elec
Oil_elec
50,000
1,000
0
0
2005
2020
2035
2050
2065
2080
2095
2005
2020
2035
2050
2065
2080
2095
Geologic Storage Capacity Estimates, All Grades (PgC)
Coal
Basins
Depleted
Oil Plays
Gas
Basins
Deep Saline
Formation
On-shore
48
31
190
1,608
Deep Saline
Formation
Off-shore
TOTAL
1,374
3,252
Source: Dooley, et al. 2004
14
Biomass and Land-Use Change
Emission
EJ/year
250
200
B2
b2
B2
B2
stab Modern
Stable Waste & Trad
Modern
Waste & Trad
150
100
50
2005
2020
2035
2050
2065
2080
2095
Land-Use Change Carbon Emissions
4000
3500
3000
2500
TgC/year C
Land-use Emissions
0
1990
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-5001990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
-1000
B2 Reference with
Climate
Stabilization
Energy
300
B2 Reference
B2 Reference
350
Biomass in B2 Reference and B2 Reference
Stabilization Cases
100%
90%
80%
2050
70%
60%
50%
BioLand
Unmgd
40%
Forest
30%
Pasture
20%
10%
Crops
0%
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
B2 Reference with Stabilization
100%
90%
80%
2050
70%
60%
50%
Unmgd
BioLand
40%
Forest
30%
Pasture
20%
10%
Crops
0%
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
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The Value of Improving the Present
Suite of Energy Technologies is
Large—e.g. CCS
$10
Preliminary
estimate
2005 Present
Value of Cost
Reduction
2005 to 2095
Discounted
@ 5%/year
Trillions of 1990 US $
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
450 ppm
$2
$1
550 ppm
$0
Unlimited
Storage
650 ppm
100%
50%
Maximum
Maximum
Potential
Potential
Capacity
Capacity
10%
Maximum
Potential
Capacity
16
Some Observations
Climate change is a long-term issue with a characteristic time scale
of 100 years or more, but with implications for present decision
making.
Climate is all about technology and managing the development and
deployment of succeeding generations of a suite of technologies
over the century ahead.
Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations means that the
largest changes to the global energy system are in the second half
of the 21st century.
Stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases require a
credible commitment to limit cumulative emissions of carbon over
the century.
Changes in the global energy system that could lay ahead are
potentially massive.
The value of improving the suite of available energy technologies is
large.
17
END
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