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Transcript
The Histories, Current Situation
and Possible Futures
of the “Adaptation” Concept
Talk presented at the workshop “Limits to Adaptation”
7-8 February 2008
Ben Orlove
Environmental Science and Policy, UCDavis
Center for Research on Environmental Decisions,
Columbia University
Overview of talk
•
•
•
•
•
Two meanings of “limits to adaptation”
Three histories of adaptation
The current situation of adaptation
Possible futures of adaptation
A case to consider: glacier retreat in the
Andes
Two meanings of “limits to adaptation”
• The concept is clear but the application of
the concept can be difficult.
• The concept is not clear.
Overview of talk
•
•
•
•
•
Two meanings of “limits to adaptation”
Three histories of adaptation
The current situation of adaptation
Possible futures of adaptation
A case to consider: glacier retreat in the
Andes
Three histories of adaptation
1. Common-sense, non-technical use
(17th century to present)
“The action or process of adapting, fitting, or suiting
one thing to another” [OED]
1610 HEALEY St. Aug., City of God 743 They..made
a very ingenious adaptation of the one to the
other.
1646 SIR T. BROWNE Pseud. Ep. III. xi. 130 A
commixtion of both in the whole rather than an
adaptation or cement of the one unto the other.
Three histories of adaptation
2. Scientific and technical uses
(19th century to present)
1859 DARWIN in Jrnl. Linn. Soc. Zool. III. 50 The
most vigorous and healthy males, implying
perfect adaptation, must generally gain the
victory in their contests [for the females].
1881 in Syd. Soc. Lex. [Sydenham Society, Lexicon
of ... ] 1920 Jrnl. Gen. Phys. II. 499 The
phenomenon of retinal adaptation is one of the
most familiar facts of sensory physiology.
1955 Julian Steward: cultural adaptations
Three histories of adaptation
3. Applied environmental science
(20th century to present)
1970s Studies of disaster and natural hazards
1990s Adaptation to climate change
Three histories of adaptation
3. Applied environmental science
(20th century to present)
1970s Studies of disaster and natural hazards
1990s Adaptation to climate change
Articles on "adaptation" and "climate change"
250
Articles
200
150
100
50
0
1985
1990
1995
Year
2000
2005
2010
Draft resolution to
UN General
Assembly (summer
1988)
1st Assessment
Report (1990)
2nd Assessment
Report (1995)
3rd & 4th
Assessment
Reports (2001,
2007)
“science”
WGI: Science
WGI: Science
WGI: Science
“social and economic WG!I: Impacts
impacts”
WG!I: Impacts,
Adaptation and
Mitigation
WG!I: Impacts,
Adaptation and
Vulnerability
“possible policy
responses to delay,
limit or mitigate
impacts”
WGIII: Economic
and Social
Dimensions
WGIII: Mitigation
“relevant treaties and
other legal
instruments”
“elements for
possible future international
conventions”
WGIII:
Responses
Hazards and Climate
disasters
change
Integration of natural and
social science
High
High
Availability of technological
solutions
High
Variable
Availability of organizational
solutions
Variable
Variable
Spatial scales of threats
Local to
regional
Local to global
Temporal scale of threats
Short to
medium
Some short;
mostly medium
to long
Integration of economic
values and human rights
High
Variable
Ease of integrating solutions
with other programs
Medium to high Low to medium
Three histories of adaptation
Recent shifts
• Shifting from general discussion of responses
to focusing on the word “adaptation”. Between
1992 and 1995.
• Fearing that talking about adaptation would
direct effort away from mitigation. Late 1990s,
early 2000s. Linking adaptation and mitigation,
after 2000-2002.
• Establishing the National Adaptation
Programmes of Action (NAPAs). 2001.
Overview of talk
•
•
•
•
•
Two meanings of “limits to adaptation”
Three histories of adaptation
The current situation of adaptation
Possible futures of adaptation
A case to consider: glacier retreat in the
Andes
The current situation of adaptation
Social location: three contexts of discussion
1. Science (natural and social science; academic
settings)
2. Policy (governments; NGOs; local bodies)
3. Public (media; Internet; meetings; conversation)
The current situation of adaptation
Social location: single ownership of the term:
IPCC
Adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or
changing environment. Adaptation to climate change
refers to adjustment in natural or human systems in
response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their
effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be
distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive
adaptation, private and public adaptation, and
autonomous and planned adaptation.
source: IPCC glossary, 3rd Assessment Report
The current situation of adaptation
Social effect: focus attention towards certain kinds of
problems
Think: to which of the following does the term apply?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Climate change
Loss of biodiversity
Epidemic malaria
The HIV/AIDS epidemic
The obesity epidemic
The rise of China and India as economic powers
The decline of the US dollar
Human rights abuses
Terrorism
The current situation of adaptation
Social effect: focus attention towards certain kinds of
assessment.
• Comparisons of impacts
–
•
Comparisons of pathways
–
•
(and away from hard-to-compare sets of impacts, like
economic and cultural impacts)
(and away from hard-to-formulate and changing
pathways)
Comparisons within and between populations
–
(and away from hard-to-define/-observe categories
and to cross-scale interactions)
The current situation of adaptation
Social effect: focus attention towards certain kinds of
projects and funding
• Scale (national, local)
• Challenges to integrating adaptation and other
projects (the “additionality”problem)
The current situation of adaptation
Social effect: what does the term adaptation make
easier to see? What does it make it harder to
see?
Climate change and migration.
Climate change and irreversible, non-substitutable
sources.
Overview of talk
•
•
•
•
•
Two meanings of “limits to adaptation”
Three histories of adaptation
The current situation of adaptation
Possible futures of adaptation
A case to consider: glacier retreat in the
Andes
Possible futures of adaptation
Scenario 1: “business as usual”
•
•
•
the term becomes more widespread
the term becomes more diffused
the term becomes internationalized
repackaging of projects and organizations
Possible futures of adaptation
Scenario 2: adaptation
•
•
the term proliferates and becomes modified
mainstreaming adaptation
adaptation and development
“Adaptation Day” first held at 2002 COP; became
“Development and Adaptation Days” in 2004 and
“Development and Climate Days” in 2007.
•
“limits to adaptation”
Possible futures of adaptation
Scenario 3: transformation
•
new terms join the word “adaptation”
climate risk management
– reduce uncertainty in forecasts
– develop new technologies
– develop new institutions and organizations (e.g.
insurance)
•
academic approaches
– environmental history
– critical geography
Overview of talk
•
•
•
•
•
Two meanings of “limits to adaptation”
Three histories of adaptation
The current situation of adaptation
Possible futures of adaptation
A case to consider: glacier retreat in the
Andes
A case study: Peruvian glaciers
• Glaciers and adaptation to climate change
– Timing
• At present rather than just forecast for future
– Detection
• Visibility
• Monitoring
– Attribution
• Global scale of retreat
• Links to models
“An Inconvenient Truth,” Al Gore
A case study: Peruvian glaciers
• high elevation, 4600 – 5200 meters above sea
level
• natural grasslands and irrigated pasture
• alpaca herding: sale and barter of wool, meat,
animals.
• catch-and-release hunting/shearing of vicuñas
• hydropower facilities and mining exploration in
region
A case study: Peruvian glaciers
• indigenous Quechua-speaking herders
• centuries-long history of colonialism and land
conflicts
• recent decades: violence and neoliberal
government policies.
• weak presence of NGOs
Glacier retreat in Cusco
Changes in the Qori Kalis
Glacier, Quelccaya Ice
Cap, Peru, are shown
between 1978 (top)
and 2002. The glacier
retreat during this time
was 1.1 km.
Photo credit: Lonnie
Thompson
Changes in glaciers
Cordilleras Vilcanota and Carabaya
1962
1999
87.42
57.60
46.12
35.13
7.89
Total volume (km3)
1.69
1.12
0.89
0.68
0.15
Max. runoff (m3/s)
7.59
5.00
4.00
3.05
0.68
Min. runoff (m3/s)
2.53
1.67
1.33
1.02
0.23
Av. runoff (m3/s)
5.06
3.33
2.67
2.03
0.46
Total area (km2)
2007/15 2015/25 2040/60
(+0.15°C) (+0.3°C) (+1.2°C)
Source: Hüggel et al. 2003, Assessment of glacier hazards and glacier runoff
glacier area
100
area in km*2
80
60
40
20
0
1962
1999
2007/15
2015/25
2040/60
Source: Hüggel et al. 2003, Assessment of glacier hazards and glacier runoff
dry season runoff
3.00
(m*3/sec)
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
1962
1999
2007/15
2015/25
2040/60
Source: Hüggel et al. 2003, Assessment of glacier hazards and glacier runoff
Warming in the American Cordillera
1990/99-2090/99
Source: Bradley et al. 2006, Threats to water supplies in the Tropical Andes
Local perceptions
(“detection”)
• processes
– rit’i pisiyamun “The ice and snow are
diminishing.”
– rit’i chhullukun “The ice and snow are melting.”
• features
– yana rit’i “black snow” [dust-covered ice]
– t’oqo “holes” [moulins]
– wayq’o “cracks” [crevasses]
• epistemology
– sut’i “in plain sight”
interview characteristics
• 10 interviews
• 7 men, 3 women
– Overlap of gender, language
• birthplace: 5 from local village, 2 from
neighboring villages, 2 from adjacent
provinces, 1 from elsewhere in department
• key issue: interaction of economic and
cultural factors in shaping perceptions,
framing, concerns
spatial and social scale
6
individuals
5
4
3
2
1
0
household
local
community
local & nearby communities highland Peru
communities
& region
epochs
generations
& epochs
generations
years &
generations
years
individuals
temporal scale
5
4
3
2
1
0
vi
g
cu
ña
s
at
e
lim
ot
he
rc
ca
s
in
in
m
al
pa
ur
e
at
er
pa
st
w
ie
rs
gl
ac
individuals
local concerns
mentioned in interviews
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
mention mining
by social/spatial scale
local
village
local, villages, highland
nearby
region
Peru
villages
total
no
2
3
0
0
5
yes
0
2
2
1
5
total
2
5
2
1
10
mention mountain spirits
by temporal scale
years
years
&
gens
gens
gens & epochs
epochs
total
no
4
0
0
0
2
6
yes
0
2
1
0
1
4
total
4
2
1
0
3
10
number of projects
mentioned in interviews
individuals
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
number of projects
by temporal scale
years
years
&
gens
gens
gens & epochs
epochs
total
0
1
1
1
0
3
6
2
2
0
0
0
0
2
5
1
1
0
0
0
2
total
4
2
1
0
3
10
Local proposals
• alpaca breeding (4)
• water (irrigation, reservoirs, drinking
water, bottled water plant) (4)
• alpaca infrastructure (health, medicine,
exports) (3)
• organizations (district status, regional
association) (2)
• regional infrastructure (roads) (1)
groups involved with adaptation
to climate change in Cusco
•
•
•
•
•
NGOs
Local/regional government
National plan (CONAM)
World Bank/Global Environment Facility
Foreign aid
Does adaptation make sense as a
way to think of the herders?
• Very large scale of threats to core livelihood
• Mismatch of local concerns and agencies
(government, NGOs, international aid)
• Difficulty of integrating climate change and other
concerns