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Adaptation in the United States:
Surging Ahead or Sputtering Along?
Joel B. Smith
Stratus Consulting
Boulder CO
2nd National Conference on Climate Change
UNAM
Mexico City
October 18, 2011
STRATUS CONSULTING
Review Different Levels of
Government Adaptation in US
• Federal government
is at the top
– Smallest part of
pyramid
• States are in the
middle
• Localities at the
bottom
– Largest part of
pyramid
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Review Different Levels of
Government Adaptation in US
• Start at Bottom
• Adaptation at Local
Level
• Adaptation at State
Level
• Adaptation in
Federal Government
• Selective Examples
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Local Level Adaptation
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New York City
• Strong Executive
Leadership
• Involve researchers and
practitioners
• Apply risk management
principles
– Plan for low probability
high consequence
outcomes
• Identify specific and
quantifiable outcomes
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NYC Organization
• Mayor Bloomberg has been driving force
behind the plan
– What happens when his term ends?
• Funding from Rockefeller Foundation
• Convened New York Panel on Climate
Change (NYPCC)
– Experts who advise on science and adaptation
• Developed sustainability plan (PlaNYC)
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NYC Water Resources
• Supplies
– Protect Watershed
– Invest in pipelines for
redundancy
• Water Quality
– Bluebelt wetlands
– Improve Combined
Sewer Overflow retention
– Improve storm sewers
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Other NYC Initiatives
• Plan for disasters
– Heat waves, heavy rains, storm surges, high
winds…
• Improve air quality (contributes to 6% of
deaths)
– Use of more fuel efficient vehicles and cleaning
– Phase out dirtiest heating oils
• Plant 1 million trees
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Chicago
• Preparing for heat
waves
– 1995 hundreds dead
– Heat watch warning
system
– Cooling centers
• Protect air quality
• Reduce stormwater
risks
• Use green urban design
– Green infrastructure
becoming more popular
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Small Cities: Keene NH and
Spartanburg SC
• Keene now plans for
200-year flood to
address greater
variability
– Hurricane Irene
• Spartanburg built on
knowledge of
climate change
impacts to improve
resilience
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Regional Cooperation: Southeast Florida
Regional Climate Change Compact
• Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm
Beach and Monroe
• Signed compact in 2009 to
coordinate mitigation and
adaptation
• Develop regional action plan
• Seek federal funding for
modeling and plan preparation
• Propose state policies
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Water Resources Adaptation
Leadership by Water Utilities
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Water Utility Climate Alliance
(WUCA)
• 10 major water utilities across the US e.g.,
– SF, NYC, Seattle, MWD…
• Common voice on climate change adaptation
matters
• Sponsor research to support adaptation
– Use of climate and water
models
– Decision making
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Seattle
• Approach: Invest in actions that mitigate uncertainty and
enhance flexibility and resiliency so that system managers can
continue to meet their responsibilities.
• Adjust operations to test
system flexibility
• Enhance information networks
• Engage in ongoing research
• Maintain portfolio of response
options
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Seattle Climate Change Scenario
Analysis
Source: City of Seattle
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State Government Adaptations
Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change
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State Governments
• Several have taken a leadership role
• Some have done statewide priority
setting with stakeholders
– Maryland, Alaska, Florida
• Others have emphasized sector
adaptation
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California
• Extensive research
effort on impacts and
adaptation
• Statewide adaptation
strategy
– Coordinated DNR
• Water Resources
– Dept Water Resources
• Coastal Resources
– Cal Coastal Commission
• Forests
– DNR
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California Adaptation Objectives
• Reduce per capita
water use by 20%
by 2020
• Avoid significant
new building in
areas vulnerable to
– Erosion
– Flooding
– Fire
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Maryland
• Initially focused on sea
level
– Detailed level of planning
• Expanding planning to a
number of sectors
– Human health
– Agriculture
– Chesapeake Bay and
aquatic ecosystems
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One Key Issue: Leadership
• Florida demonstrates that attention to
adaptation can change with leadership
• Gov. Christ was very committed to action on
climate change
– Stakeholder process to set priorities
– Florida Energy and Climate Commission
• Work has for the most part been stopped by
Gov. Scott and Legislature
– FLECC abolished
• Demonstrates need to institutionalize
adaptation
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Federal Action on Adaptation
• Adaptation planning
at agency level
• Coordinating
committees by
sector
• National sector
plans
• No integrated
national strategy
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Executive Order 13514
• Signed Oct 5, 2009
• Require each agency
write Strategic
Sustainability
Performance Plan
• Manage effects of
climate change on each
agency’s operation and
mission
• Each agency just
completed a
vulnerability analysis
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Agency Adaptation Planning
• Some started under Bush
Administration
• Some undertaking coordinating role
• Some supporting adaptation by
stakeholders
• Some focusing on vulnerability of their
facilities
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Department of Interior
• Most ambitious
adaptation efforts
• Landscape
Conservation
Cooperatives
– Coordinate activities
at ecosystem level
• Regional Science
Centers
– USGS
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Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Water
• Strategic Plan on
Adaptation
– Manage impacts of climate
change on water resources
• Climate Ready Water
Utilities
– Support water utilities on
adaptation
• Climate Resilience and
Evaluation Awareness Tool
– Tool to help utilities analyze
vulnerability and adaptation
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Other Agency Efforts
• Department of Transportation
– Supporting Adaptation Planning in States and Fish
and Wildlife Refuges
• Federal Emergency Management Agency
– Updating flood zone maps
• Defense Department
– Analyzing risks of climate change to US facilities
• NASA
– Analyzing risks to its facilities
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Federal Agency Adaptations
• Some agencies focusing on their own
assets and missions, e.g., Defense
• Others taking on a coordinating role,
e.g., Interior
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Concluding Thoughts
Where is the US on Adaptation?
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Is the US Surging Ahead or
Sputtering Along?
• We’re not The Leader in adaptation
– Other countries such as the UK more organized
• Action has mainly been self-motivated
– No requirement to adapt
• CA requiring adaptation by localities
• Adaptation is not required for all nor is it
coordinated
– For example, no minimum standards
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Is the US Surging Ahead or
Sputtering Along?
• Many state and local governments have
shown leadership and developed
adaptation plans
– Are good models
• The federal government is starting to
address adaptation
– In early stage
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Is the US Surging Ahead or
Sputtering Along?
• Is a voluntary effort good enough?
• It allows for experimentation, which is
good
• Will not create the comprehensiveness
needed to address adaptation
• The glass is half full, but needs more
water!
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Some Lessons Learned
• Importance of Executive leadership
– Strong signal needed from the top
• Importance of central coordination
– Out of office of Chief Executive or
Department/Agency/Ministry
• Vulnerability assessments needed
• Yet, most adaptations are “no regrets”
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Some Lessons Learned
• Adaptation is not solved overnight
– It takes persistence
– Effective governance on adaptation can take a
decade to build
• Adaptation is a process, not a single decision
– Must be revisited and revisited
• Networks are critical
– Need to have groups, sectors that will affect each
other work together
• Agriculture and Water Resources
• Involve key stakeholders
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Thank you!
[email protected]
STRATUS CONSULTING