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Discussion Point 5: Should we place a limit on the global CO2 emissions to ensure sustainable development? R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement (in 109 kg CO2) 12000 10000 8000 6000 from solid fuel burning from liquid fuel burning from gas fuel burning from cement production from gas flaring 4000 2000 0 1750 R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 1800 1850 1900 Year 1950 2000 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html Global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement (in 109 kg CO2) 35000 30000 Total emissions 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1750 R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 1800 1850 1900 Year 1950 2000 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html Global Carbon Cycle Fossilfuel burning 5.3 Land use 0.6 – 2.6 Numbers are billions of tons of carbon Photosynthesis 100-120 Plant respiration 40 - 50 Decay of residues 50 - 60 Sea-surface gas exchange 100 - 115 Net ocean uptake 1.6 – 2.4 R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Geological reservoir Atmospheric Carbon dioxide Concentrations 400 CO2 concentration in the atmosphere (in ppmv) 375 350 385.3 ppmv in 2008 325 300 275 ppmv in preindustrial time 275 1750 R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) including Carbon dioxide GHGs are gases in an atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 The Greenhouse effect A SUN R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 T M O S P H E R E The main GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Without GHGs, Earth's surface would be on average about 33°C colder than at present. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Rise in the concentration of four GHGs R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Global Warming Potential (GWP) of different GHGs R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Global Warming The burning of fossil fuels, land use change and other industrial activities since the industrial revolution have increased the GHGs in the atmosphere to such a level that the earth’s surface is heating up to temperatures that are very destructive to life on earth. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Global temperature anomalies from land meteorological stations (in deg C) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 Base period -0.4 -0.6 R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html Global temperature anomalies from land and ocean observations (in deg C) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 Base period -0.4 -0.6 R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html Hemispheric annual temperature anomalies from land and ocean observations 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 Base period -0.6 R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html The global temperature has risen by 0.74 ± 0.18°C over the last century (from 1906 to 2005). Source: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Compare the above with the fact that the global temperature has not varied by more than 1 or 2oC during the past 100 centuries. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Global warming has begun, and so has the Climate Change. Consequences………… R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Consequences………… World’s first environmental refugees from Carteret Islands, Papua New Guinea. • Persistent flooding is causing the submergence of the Carteret Islands. • Saltwater intrusion is contaminating the islands freshwater supply and preventing the growth of crops. • The islands were declared uninhabitable by the government in 2005 and expected to be completely submerged by 2015. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/ Consequences………… • death of coral reefs • fewer cubs for polar bears • spread of dengue and other diseases • heavy rains & severe draughts • fires, floods, storms, & hurricanes • changed rainfall patterns • warming and aridity • loss of biodiversity R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Rate of increase of CO2 concentration (in ppmv/year) 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 1.8 ppmv/year in 2008 0.5 0 1960 R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000 2010 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/siple2.013 and http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.html CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv) 500 475 450 actual value at 1.5 ppmv/year at 2.0 ppmv/year at 2.5 ppmv/year 425 global temperature may be up by 2oC 400 375 350 2000 R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO2 increase per year, 400 ppmv CO2 will be reached in 2018, and it is probable that the global o temperature would go up by 2 C (compare it with the 0.01oC per decade estimate by WWF). -Accelerated Climate Change -Mass extinctions -Ecosystems breakdowns -Large scale discontinuities R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Some say, forget about the 2oC. The limit is not 400 ppmv CO2. It is 550 ppmv CO2 (which is nearly twice the pre-industrial value), which we may reach not. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv) 650 600 550 actual value at 1.5 ppmv/year at 2.0 ppmv/year at 2.5 ppmv/year 500 450 We are lucky. Are we? 400 350 2000 R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 2025 2050 Year 2075 2100 Sustainable Limit Calculations R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: 1. Virgin material supply limit: To stabilize the atmospheric CO2 concentration below approximately 550 ppmv by the year 2100, global anthropogenic emissions must be limited to about 7 to 8 x 1012 kg (= 7 to 8 giga tonnes) of C per year (IPCC, 1996). R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9 Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: 2. Allocation of virgin material: Each of the average 7.5 billion people on the planet over the next 50 years is allocated an equal share of carbon emissions. That is roughly 1 tonne (1000 kg) of C equivalents per person per year, which is roughly 3.8 tonne of CO2 equivalents per person per year. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9 (tonnes of C equivalent) CO2 Emissions per capita 2004 10 9 8 7 6 USA 5 4 Sri Lanka Sustainable limit 3 2 1 0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 HDI (defined on next page)2005 R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm (tonnes of C equivalent) CO2 Emissions per capita 2004 10 9 8 7 6 5 Singapore 4 Sri Lanka Sustainable limit 3 USA Norway 2 1 0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 HDI (defined on next page)2005 1 Iceland Japan R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm UNDP defined Human Development Index (HDI) HDI = LI 3 + 2 EI (Education Index) = 3 R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 + GDPI 3 Life Expectancy - 25 85 - 25 LI (Life Index) = GDPI (GDP Index) = EI 3 Adult Literacy 1 School Enrollment + 100 3 100 ln(GDP per capita) - ln(100) ln(40000) - ln(100) (tonnes of C equivalent) CO2 Emissions per capita 2004 HDI > 0.8 10 Unsustainable amount of per capita CO2 emissions are required to reach super high HDI (> 0.9) 9 8 7 6 USA 5 4 Sri Lanka Sustainable limit 3 2 1 0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 HDI 2005 R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm Discussion Point 6: How to limit the CO2 emissions below the sustainable limit? R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Take 10 mins. Emissions Reduction Option 1: Increase the use of carbon sinks (such as forests where 70% of all photosynthesis occurs). But, we replace our forests with cities, highways & golf courses. Stop destroying forests, and grow more trees. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 The forest cover is already too small to help reducing global warming. How long does it take to grow a tree like this? R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Emissions Reduction Option 2: Change to non-CO2 emitting energy sources What are they? Nuclear Hydro Renewables (Geothermal, Solar, Wave, Tidal, Wind, Biomass and Biogas) Muscle Power R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Energy from sustainably managed renewable sources Solar energy Wind energy Hydropower Ocean energy Geothermal Biomass & organic waste Biomass & organic waste R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Photovoltaic thermal waves, tides heat heat DC electricity AC electricity, hot water, space heating etc. AC electricity AC electricity AC electricity AC electricity, hot water, space heating etc. heat, organic fuels AC electricity, hot water, space heating etc. Ulf Bossel – October 2005 World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in 1015 BTU) 175 Petroleum 150 Coal 125 100 Dry Natural Gas 75 Hydroelectric Power 50 25 0 1980 Nuclear Electric Power 1985 1990 1995 Year R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 2000 2005 Electric Power from Renewables http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) 50% Petroleum 40% Coal 30% Dry Natural Gas 20% Hydroelectric Power 10% 0% 1980 Nuclear Electric Power 1985 1990 1995 Year R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 2000 2005 Electric Power from Renewables http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Fossil fuels 50% Hydroelectric Power 40% Nuclear Electric Power 30% Electric Power from Renewables 20% 10% 0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) 8% 7% 6% 5% Hydroelectric Power 4% Nuclear Electric Power 3% Electric Power from Renewables 2% 1% 0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls There is no immediate financial benefits for a switch to renewable energy in the profitoriented energy markets. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Emissions Reduction Option 3: Reduce Population More people More pollution R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Electricity use in 2006 If you are in USA, you will be lighting 18.5 bulbs, each with 200 W power If you are in China, you will be lighting 3 bulbs, each with 200 W power R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income CO2 (metric tons per capita) R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Population GDP per capita, PPP (const 2005 International $) in 2005 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income CO2 (metric tons per capita) R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Population GDP per capita, PPP (const 2005 International $) in 2005 CO2 emissions per capita has stronger links with GDP per capita than with population. R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Emissions Reduction Option 4: Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Controversial since permanent storage of CO2 underground is not guaranteed R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Controversial since the impacts on marine ecosystem (very fragile) are not known Discussion Point 7: What could you do to limit the CO2 emissions below the sustainable limit as an engineer? R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Take 10 mins. Food for thought: What are the Engineering Challenges to sustainability? Global climate change Energy production and use Food production Resources depletion Toxics in the environment Making sustainable lifestyles attractive R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010 Base for your CP551 project The supreme Greek God Zeus told Prometheus: “You may give men such gifts as are suitable, but you must not give them fire for that belongs to the Immortals.” – Roger Lancelyn Green Tales of the Greek Heroes Puffin Classics R. Shanthini 20 Aug 2010