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Vulnerability: Progress in food Security Thomas E. Downing Environmental Change Institute Oxford Vulnerability is… An aggregate measure of human welfare that integrates environmental, social, economic and political exposure to a range of harmful perturbations. The zephyrs of breeze that locate vulnerability within the trade winds of globalisation and climate change … … demand our concern, before they become gales … must be charted with new instruments spawned by multiple disciplines and appropriate technologies … can be buffered through known strategies and measures Mozambique waiting for more rain Workshop challenges How strong is current knowledge in this area? What do we best and least understand? What new research would be most important? What major synthetic approaches have evolved? Can vulnerability be internalised into broader integrated assessments? Outline Placing vulnerability in context: Demand for information Historical trends Examples and methodologies State of knowledge Conclusions (if any) Demand for information Where are the vulnerable? Targeting geographical region, socio-economic class Who are vulnerable? Relative vulnerability among households and individuals What should be done? Link to intervention/adaptation What is the future of vulnerability? Exposure to global change, policy impacts Uses of vulnerability assessments Scale Indices National comparisons of vulnerability International Regional Multiple dimension profiles of regional vulnerability Profiles of vulnerable situations or syndromes Local Ecosystems Users Water Other sectors Food UNFCCC: Eligibility for adaptation funding Regional agencies: Programme design Local offices: Project evaluation Health Settlement Historical perspective Exposure: Food security --> Livelihood security VAM: Hoovering --> Structured assessment Single indicator --> Profiles --> Pathways? Rescaling Regional --> Individual --> Globalisation How can we assess vulnerability, and its links to global change and adaptive capacity? Typologies of methods Comparisons of methods Agency and institutions Operational vulnerability assessment How do we develop a consensual definition and measurement of vulnerability? How do we measure vulnerability? Typologies Single and multiple indices Expert decision support system Empirical Process model Human Development Index HDI Class Missing (10) Low (45) Medium (22) High (100) Vulnerability profile for Ethiopia Vulnerability Profile, Delanta Dawunt, Ethiopia Low income crop (V High) HH Size 1.1 Types of dairy 0.9 Middle income crop (High) Crop/dairy (Mod) Male laborers Isolated, middle income crop (Mod) High income dairy (Mod) 0.7 Livestock holdings Total Income 0.5 0.3 0.1 Road Access -0.1 Total Expenditure Mid Altitude Crops sales price in bad year Crop land Food Aid Grazing land An agent-based approach to seasonal climate forecasting Commercial Farmers Climate Forecasters Dissemination Channels •Represent actors as software agents •Multi-level vulnerability •Processes and pathways •Emergence from interactions Emerging Sustainable Farmers Vulnerable Farmers State of knowledge Levels Processes Threats Competing definitions Common wisdom Evidence based policy (interventions) Scales of vulnerability Global: Stable assessment of global poverty Uncertain relations to global change and globalisation Regional/national: Stable ranking of relative vulnerability Local: Patchy, depending on assessments Slow response to emerging vulnerable groups Time scales Short term fluctuations and long term evolution Seasonal scales subject to famine early warning Processes Human ecology of production: Well known, but connected to other scales Exchange economy and impoverishment: Extent of global linkages poor Political economy and empowerment: Fair understanding Nutritional status and interventions: Well understood Concatenation of exposure: Few studies across the range of exposure Difficult to generalise Threats Environmental degradation, climate change Conflict Economic change: recession, hyperinflation Underdevelopment Pathways and mechanisms ? Relative risk Local realisation Conclusions ADDITIONAL SLIDES… RISK SPACE HAZARD Risk is the overlay of hazard and vulnerability Disasters are the realisation of risk Both hazard and vulnerability are changing VULNERABILITY Confidence in climate change Mean Trends Extremes Projection Temperature Sea level rise CO2 Heat waves Lightning Bounded divergence Regional Precipitation Risk Surprise High tides North Atlantic Drought episodes Precipitationin tensity Persistent drought Complex Episodes Major floods Windstorms Storm surge Persistent ENSO Confidence in future climate change varies. Some elements can be projected--the direction of change is known. For others, the sign of the change is not known, but the range of projections is bounded reasonably well. For complex changes, our knowledge is limited to approximate shifts in risks and potential for surprises. Vulnerability is… about equity…linking climate change to uneven development concerns people…begin with the humanitarian concerns for vulnerable socio-economic groups an integrating method…for targeting adaptation Priorities for adaptation Mean Trends Projection Bounded divergence Risk Surprise Implement adaptation measures: Water efficiency Complex Events Plan adaptation strategies and measures: Coastal retreat Extremes Reduce vulnerability, monitor, prepare: Drought preparedness Reduce vulnerability: Flood plain restrictions Worst case scenarios Adaptation failure? Emergency preparedness Focus on the most vulnerable groups Sustainable livelihoods Resource poor Uncertain incomes Marginalised In context Institutional capacity Governance Infrastructure Criteria for evaluating adaptation Apply criteria to relevant stakeholders and vulnerable groups Resilience and effectiveness Strategic responses Timing Economic evaluation Constraints Conflicts Adaptation strategies for water Stakeholders Conseq. Vulnerable users Consumers Large-scale users Private water carriers Antic. Inst. Ed’n. Dev’t ? River basin agencies ? Research ? Ministries Aid organisations ? ? ? Evaluation of strategies in agriculture Criteria Reserves Stakeholders Aid agencies Companies Agro-tech All Vulnerable groups ? Low income Women Resource poor Multiple benefits M M L M Specific to climate change M L L L Effectiveness M M H H Development L M H H 1-5 1-5 5-10 ~5 Irreversible impacts L L L L Initial investment M L H M Many Many Producers Many Information L L M M Technology L L H H Socio-political M M H H Planning horizon Realisation of benefits Trade Technology Aggregate Dessication in the Sahel In the last 10 years long-term impacts of droughts and famines of the 1970s in Sahel became evident Major droughts in the past Century 1910-1916, 1941-1945, late 1960 with a peak in 1970s In the last 10 years long-term impacts of droughts and famines of the 1970s in Sahel became evident Responses Wide range of coping strategies bartering, migration, social welfare, formal insurance, education, etc. Research and monitoring: Creation of CILSS in 1973 Early warning systems Working with the human and drought-induced stress on natural ecosystems Improved agricultural production technologies (improved variety of millet and sorghum, intensive cultivation techniques) Boosting local capacities Creation of farmers cooperatives Small-scale NGOs and CBOs projects Integration of environmental rehabilitation to development projects and programs Innovative techniques in soil and water conservation Popular erosion control methods Agroforestry Regional and national levels Improving and strengthening local management and development initiatives Building upon own skills, indigenous knowledge and resources Assess long term trends Improving sustainable livelihood systems Cyclones and sea level rise Progressive coping capacity in Bangladesh: 1 million deaths in 1960s 100,000 deaths in 1970s 10,000 deaths in 1980s 1,000 deaths in 1990s Aid can be effective