Download Policy on climate change for the Swedish Forest

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POLICY
Date
2009-11-13
Version 1.0
Policy on climate change for the Swedish Forest
Agency
Aim
This policy describes Swedish Forest Agency standpoints on the anthropogenic climate change problem, with main attention on effects of climate change
on forest and forestry, effects of forestry on climate change, the roles of forestry in climate change mitigation, and responsibilities of the Swedish Forest
Agency in this context.
Target group
All employees should be aware of the existence and aim of the climate change
policy. Employees working with forest issues and extension shall apply the
policy in their work. External actors shall be able to find the policy on our
internet homepage.
Policy responsibility
The Director General owns this policy and decides (with protocol decision)
about a new policy or revision (new version) of the policy.
The Analysis unit manages the policy and that includes a responsibility for
follow-up and development of the policy.
Each head of unit is responsible for implementation and application of the
policy.
General standpoints by the Swedish Forest Agency
A global perspective
The Swedish Forest Agency (SFA) is basing its judgments concerning the
changing climate on analyses made by the UN climate panel (IPCC) and the
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute/Rossby Centre1 and works
for reaching the goal on limited climate change decided by the Swedish Parliament2. SFA concludes that the anthropogenic climate change is mainly
caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Also other factors, as for example particle emissions, heat losses and changes in various land types ability to reflect
shortwave radiation, have an impact. The single activity contributing mostly
to the present increase in greenhouse effect is combustion of fossil fuels. The
uncertainty in the climate models and concerning the development of the an1
www.ipcc.ch, www.smhi.se
In the Swedish Environmental Quality Goals is stated that Sweden shall contribute to stabilize concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a non-dangerous level.
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C:\Users\anst01\Desktop\klimat\Policy-Skogsstyrelsens Klimatpolicy eng.doc
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Policy
2009-11-13
thropogenic influence means that climate changes can be more pronounced
than in the two main scenarios often presented (A2 and B2), or, less probable,
milder. The larger climate changes allowed the larger threats towards human
lives, economic values and biodiversity around the world.
Replanting forest in deforested regions of the world may provide a valuable
mitigating effect in regions where conditions are developing favouring forest
preservation and utilisation of forest for a socioeconomic sustainable development. Deforestation ought to be counteracted partly through poverty reduction and socioeconomic development. It is a standpoint of the Swedish Forest
Agency that a long-term and sustainable management with respect to economic, ecological and social factors shall be practised at all types of forestry and
bioenergy production around the world.
Impact of climate change on Swedish forest
In case the emission development can be kept within the range of the major
scenarios, we presently believe that the Swedish climate probably will have
changed the following ways towards the end of the present century, compared
to the reference period 1960-903:
 The average mean annual temperature has increased 2-4 degrees C and the
vegetation periods have become 1-2 months longer.
 The average annual precipitation has increased 10-20 %, whereof a major
part will come during autumn and winter. In average, summer rainfall has
become heavier. In southern Sweden, the risk for summer drought has increased. Snow season has shortened.
 The risk for strong winds has not changed or has increased somewhat.
Such changes in climate means that forest growth most likely is affected positively, potentially around 25-30 % as an average for the country, presuming
the present mix of tree species. Especially will the Norway spruce be favoured
in the northern half of the country.
Recent changes in climate are in agreement with the prognoses. The average
annual mean temperature for Sweden was 0.9 degrees higher 1990-2005 compared to 1960-90. Also rainfall was higher.
Several of our most common severe forest pests (such as root rot, pine weevil,
spruce beetle) will be favoured, whereas conditions may become less favourable for others. New pests may immigrate from the south. Winter survival for
deers and rodents improves and thereby the risk for plant damage from browsing and similar. As a result, regeneration of most tree species may be difficult
and/or expensive resulting in a too high dominance for Norway spruce in the
new forests, especially in southern Sweden. Storm felling may increase - even
if strong wind speeds do not - , as a result of faster growth, less frozen ground,
higher water tables during winter, and, perhaps, higher proportion of spruce.
Problems with spring frost will likely increase, whereas the risk for autumn
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Cf Skogsstyrelsen Rapport 2007:8: Svenskt skogsbruk möter klimatförändringar (Forestry
in Sweden meets climate change).
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frost ought to decrease. At the same time, the increased risk of summer
drought in the southernmost region of Sweden, Götaland, increases the risk
for forest fire. Warmer and wetter winters will likely mean more expensive
and technically more difficult transporting of forest biomass from forest to
road, as well as needs for improved maintenance of existing forest roads and
generally improved quality of new roads.
Along with the strengthening of policies that disfavour fossil fuel use, the
willingness to pay for biomass-derived energy will continue to increase. This
increases the contribution to climate change mitigation from the forest sector,
however may also result in higher wood prices for other forest industries.
Moreover, increased demand for fuel assortments may increase the general
intensity of the forest management and bring about new harvesting methods,
which may negatively impact biodiversity, social values, cultural heritage,
reindeer herding and tourism in/of the forest, unless rules and/or praxis for
considerations develop at a parallel pace. Climate changes may also have direct and further indirect negative effects on biodiversity in various ways. Improved considerations, planning and techniques will be needed to protect
streams and rivers towards negative effects from forest transporting when
winters get shorter and warmer and water tables higher. Forest-dwelling species, whose winter hardiness have been their major advantage in the competition may be disfavoured along with the immigration of species from the south
The genetic constitution of trees mainly affects survival of the plant phase
when plants are being the most sensitive to damage by frost and drought. Older forest is less sensitive to climate variation. Therefore, the choice of geographic seed origin should mainly be determined from the prevailing climate.
Because risks for increased damage may be counteracted or reduced through
strategic management, it is important that forest owners make their choices
based on good advice and a consciousness about how risks may change over
time.
Actions to improve adaptation to climate change are:
 Adaptation of plant browsing deer populations for improved freedom of
choice in the choice of tree species at regeneration,
 Adaptation of mix of tree species in the forest, for example through
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use of mixed species stands to reduce vulnerability to pests,
a serious use of more than two tree species to spread risks,
use of relatively storm resistant tree species at wind exposed sites,
increased use of Norway spruce at suitable sites in northern Sweden to utilise
its relatively higher gain in productivity from a warmer climate, compared to
Scotch pine
increased use of regeneration with Scotch pine on drought sensitive sites in
southern Sweden,
Development of silvicultural management for increased storm resistance
at wind exposed sites,
Increased use of biological treatment on stumps to prevent spreading of
root rot,
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Development of forest road maintenance,
Development of logistic systems for forest transports, using better planning and techniques to prevent damage on soils and running water,
Development of considerations and strategies to preserve biodiversity,
social values and cultural remnants, and protect reindeer keeping,
Development of cooperation between neighbours concerning forest roads,
planning of harvesting, protection of water and balancing populations of
deer species with respect to freedom of tree species choice at regeneration.
Impact of forest on emissions and uptake of greenhouse gas
At present, the Swedish forest and forestry affect the climate in several ways:

Solid and liquid biofuels as primary assortments, by-products and rest
products from the forest and forest industry contribute to a great portion of
the energy supply for the country and thereby reduces the need for fossil
fuels. Wood is often an energy lean material compared to for example
concrete and metals.
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For many decades, the carbon stock in forest biomass has increased as a
result of high silvicultural ambitions in relation to level of harvesting. It is
likely that an increase will continue to occur some more decades ahead.
Eventually it will reach zero in average.
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Drainage of organic wetland soils has historically meant that large quantities of stored carbon in the form of peat have decomposed and still do so
in many drained areas. In most cases, wetland drainage result in larger
emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide than what is compensated
for through reduced emissions of methane and increased substitution of
fossil fuels in several centuries. In most cases, cleansing of old forest
drainage systems has probably a near neutral effect related to climate.
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For normal N fertilization in forest4, energy input and greenhouse gas
emission connected to fertilizer production, transport and spreading is
small compared to the energy content, and thus potential to substitute fossil fuels, of the induced biomass growth. For higher N doses, effects on
the emissions of nitrous oxide need to be investigated before net effect on
the climate can be evaluated.
The Swedish Forest Agency concludes that utilised forest in most case have
potential to mitigate climate change more than non-utilised forest. As time
goes by, carbon sequestration of a natural forest will be so slow that the climate change mitigation gained from the bioenergy and energy lean construction materials that can be derived from a production forest in average is greater over time5.
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Normal forest fertilization = 2-3 times 150 kg N/ha on medium sites, except SW Götaland.
The conclusion holds as long as other sustainable energy production cannot exchange all
fossil fuels at a similar or lower price. The possibility to use the forest for increased sequestration is still there in case conditions change.
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It is also possible to change the management in various ways so as to increase
the carbon stock of the forest or the soil to a higher level. A couple of suggested such measures are reduced site preparation aiming at increasing carbon
content of the soil, or prolonged rotation period aiming at increasing the carbon stock in the biomass. However, most such measures will result in reduced
or more expensive delivery of forest biomass. And for the impact on carbon
stock to be permanent, the new management system must be used for all future. The Swedish Forest Agency therefore concludes that such measures
ought to have low priority in case the gain in form of increased stock is lower
than the loss of potential mitigation through substitution in a century-long
time perspective6.
Also, climate change contributes directly to reducing the long-term safety of
forest carbon storage. Strong incentives are however needed to manage forests
sustainable and to avoiding large reductions in carbon stocks through wetland
drainage or deforestation not strongly motivated from need of increased food
production.
To ensuring that increased use of bioenergy primarily replaces fossil fuels, it
is an advantage if permanent production subsidies can be avoided. The development ought to be driven by a direct steering towards reduced greenhouse
gases and increased energy efficiency in society.
Conclusions drawn by the Swedish Forest Agency in short
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Beside threats towards human lives, climate change also pose major
threats towards the existence of a large number of forest-dependent species and towards forest health in large regions of the world.
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As a result of climate change, growth rates of Swedish forest will most
likely increase, whilst risks for pests and other damage also increase.
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Swedish forest contribute in a safe way to mitigate climate change when it
delivers sustainably produced bioenergy that replaces fossil fuels, and energy lean materials replacing materials demanding high amounts of energy
for their production. Different from biomass and soil carbon stock increases, this mitigation benefit is not reversible7.
Responsibilities of the Swedish Forest Agency
The Swedish Forest Agency has a responsibility to:
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make sure that knowledge about effects of and adaptation to climate
changes related to both production and environment is being applied in
our activities where it is relevant, for example at advice-giving, information, development of laws and rules, biodiversity protection work, rural
development and consultation with reindeer keepers;
Most often, IPCC uses a century-long time perspective to compare the climate warming
effect for different greenhouse gases. A century is also approximately the average of a Swedish tree stand rotation period.
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meaning: cannot be destroyed later on
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act in favour of increased forest production and utilization of forest residues in balance with other values of the forest;
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act in favour of that relevant rules and recommendations ensuring sustainability at forest production, fuel extraction and nutrient compensation is
duly developed;
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act in favour of implementation of other means of adaptation in forest
management which cost-efficiently contribute to reduce negative effects
on climate from society in a century-long time perspective;
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act in favour of the implementation of effective national and international
actions to reduce net emissions of greenhouse gases and of that the potential of forest to contribute to a sustainable future is being utilised at a
global;
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act in favour of sufficient knowledge development on the impacts of ongoing and coming climate changes on Swedish forest and of forest on
greenhouse gas fluxes, and following and analysing the developing
knowledge.
Version handling
Version no
Date for decision
Change and cause
Responsible
1.0
2009-11-16
Decided
Hillevi Eriksson
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