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Transcript
PRISM3D surface ocean (goal 1) JAN APR JUL MAY MAR JUN Northumbria/GMU OCT NOV SEP DEC (Phil. Trans. Royal Society – Dowsett et al., in press) Digital Reconstruction = 126 global data sets MIN Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec WPA Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MAX Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (goal 2) •• Mean Mean Annual Annual Temperature Temperature (2x2) (2x2) •• 3D 3D Ocean Ocean temperature temperature (4x5x33) (4x5x33) •• BIOME BIOME Land Land Cover Cover (2x2) (2x2) •• Topography Topography (2x2) (2x2) •• Sea-Level Sea-Level (Land-Sea (Land-Sea Mask) Mask) (2x2) (2x2) •• Ice Ice Sheets Sheets (3D) (3D) (2x2) (2x2) 42 global datasets: [non-fractional] [fractional] [preferred] [alternate] n = 16,200 Crewe Hall Data – Model Comparison AGCM’s ESM’s Data – model comparisons… Climate Modelers Micropaleontologists Northumbria/GMU PRISM3 ? MASST Confidence Rubric University of Kansas (Nature Climate Change– Dowsett et al., 2012) PlioMIP Pliocene Experiment 2 Protocols Dynamic Ocean P3 Initialization Deep = P3 v2.0 PlioMIP Climate Models Model Institute Principal Investigator CCSM4 NCAR Otto-Bleisner COSMOS GISS-ER AWI, Bremerhaven, Lohmann, Stepanek Bremen NASA, Columbia University Chandler, Hansen HadCM3 Leeds, Bristol University Valdes, Lunt, Haywood IPSL CM5A IPSL, CNRS, France Ramstein, Contoux, Jost MIROC4m JAMSTEC, Tokyo Abe-Ouchi, Chan MRI-CGCM2.3 Univ. Tsukuba, Tokyo Kamae, Ueda NorESM Bjerknes Center, Norway Zhang, Nisancoglu Models used for initial PRISM3D comparison HadCM3 GISS MIROC NCAR Preliminary Data–Multi-Model Comparison [4 models] [Initial PlioMIP Exp.2 Results] Leeds (Nature Climate Change– Dowsett et al., 2012) PlioMIP • 8 coupled models Pliocene minus Pre Industrial PRISM vs Models Northumbria/GMU Data-model comparison Northumbria/GMU What does PlioMIP Phase I tell us 1. Tropics, upwelling & mid-high latitude North Atlantic are new targets. 2. Need to reduce uncertainty in both simulations and paleo estimates. How? mid-Piacenzian Time Slice “KM5c Time Slice” 3.200 – 3.210time Ma • 1st mid-Piacenzian slice – to reduce uncertainties in data reconstruction & numerical modeling of a warm climate state during the Pliocene • Time slice will enable us to identify a discreet interval which was warmer, yet had same or very similar orbital configuration (i.e. forcing) as today KM5c KM4 KM5 KM6 Pliocene Sea Level Estimates of the peak position of sea level during the Pliocene have a wide range (a) Orangeburg Scarp, +35 ± 18m (Dowsett and Cronin 1990) (b) Enewetak Atoll, +20 to 25m (Wardlaw and Quinn 1991) (c) Atlantic Coastal Plain, +25 to 35m (Krantz 1991) (d) LR04 oxygen isotope stack, +30m (see Raymo et al. 2009) (e) Sites 925 and 926, +15 to 30m (Dwyer and Chandler 2009) Dowsett et al., 2010 (f) Wanganui Basin NZ, +10 to 30m (Naish and Wilson 2009)
