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Research for the Sustainable Development of the Megacities of Tomorrow - Energy and Climate efficient Structures in Urban Growth Centres Hyderabad as a Megacity of Tomorrow: Climate and Energy in a Complex Transition towards Sustainable Hyderabad – Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies by Changing Institutions, Governance Structures, Lifestyles and Consumption Patterns Project funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), Germany. QUALITATIVE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT NETWORKS FOR HYDERABAD / INDIA Diana Reckien, Sonja Hofmann, Oleksandr Kit (Nr 2009 / PIK / Supplement) Analysis and Action for Sustainable Development of Hyderabad Hyderabad as a Megacity of Tomorrow: Climate and Energy in a Complex Transition towards Sustainable Hyderabad – Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies by Changing Institutions, Governance Structures, Lifestyles and Consumption Patterns Project funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), Germany: “Research for the Sustainable Development of the Megacities of Tomorrow” Humboldt University Berlin Leader of the Project Consortium: Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Konrad Hagedorn Coordinator of the Project: Dr. Ramesh Chennamaneni Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences Division of Resource Economics Philippstr. 13, House 12 10099 Berlin Germany Phone: ++49 30 20936305 Fax: ++ 49 30 20936497 Email: [email protected] [email protected] Web: http://www.sustainable-hyderabad.de http://www.agrar.hu-berlin.de/wisola/fg/ress/ Background Studies / Stakeholder Analysis / Concept Papers (Supplementary analysis to qualitative climate change impact networks for Hyderabad / India) Qualitative Climate Change Impact Networks for Hyderabad / India Diana Reckien, Sonja Hofmann, Oleksandr Kit Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Research Domain II: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities Pappelallee 20, 14469 Potsdam Postal address: Postfach 601203, 14412 Potsdam Tel.: +49 331 288 2628 Email: [email protected] TYPE: Background Study / Concept Paper May 2009 Abstract In this report we unearth the potential impacts of climate change on the city of Hyderabad/ India and mainly do so along a discussion of the five thematic fields: transport, energy, water, food and health. We start with an overview of India’s vulnerability to climate change in general and proceed with a closer look on the thematic fields. We address their current state, infrastructure development, the supply and demand structure, social access to and related problems of the thematic fields. Then, the five areas are analyzed in terms of their current climate impacts and vulnerability as well as with respect to their potential impacts under an on-going, future climate change. Mainly, three methods were used for data generation, i.e. literature review, expert interviews and newspaper analysis. All climate impacts, as ascertained to date, were pictured in three climate impact path networks (influence diagrams) that provide an overview of the impacts of climate on the strongly interrelated themes transport and infrastructure, energy and water, food and health. Next to the on-going consolidation of the climate impact analysis, future work will focus on deriving adaptation options for different thematic fields, social structures and layers of governmental or spatial jurisdiction. 3 1 Outline, Aims of the task, Deliverable1 PIK: WP1 The first year’s focus of WP1 within the research network “Energy and climate in a complex transition process towards sustainable Hyderabad” was to statistically analyze the climate projections of Atmosphere-Ocean-GeneralCirculation-Models and to assess their uncertainty, as well as to start developing potential climate change impact paths and networks of the urban subsystems transport/built infrastructures, health, food provision and security, and water, energy and natural resources (the in-depth issue areas of other work packages) in a qualitative manner. Whereas the first two foci are specified elsewhere (Lüdeke and Budde, 2009), this paper draws on the latter elaborating potential climate impact relations in the regional and local urban context allowing to derive successful adaptation options for Hyderabad under progressive climate change. Understanding the interactions between climate and various subsystems of the city is a necessary prerequisite for the quantitative modeling envisaged in a latter stage of the project. We are preparing the urban assessment modeling exercise with CATHY, the climate assessment tool for Hyderabad. A brief characterization of the climate change impact debate and adaptation discourse in India is given in the beginning. 2 Introduction 2.1 Climate Change in India The subcontinent India is a rapidly growing nation with about 1131 million inhabitants in 2005 (UN, World population prospects, 2008) and 1027 million as on 1st March, 2001 (year of last census; Government of India, Ministry of Urban Development, 2008). At that time about 742 million people lived in rural and 285 million in urban areas. Although the absolute increase of population in rural areas was higher than in urban areas (113 million against 68 million, respectively; 1991-2001), the percentage decadal growth rate in towns and urban agglomerations was much higher (17.9% rural versus 31.3% urban population growth, respectively). 27.8% of all Indians live in urban areas, trend increasing (2.1% increase in comparison to former census; Government of India, Ministry of Urban Development, 2008). In 2030, Indian’s urbanization rate is projected to account to about 40.7% (UN, State of the World’s cities 2008/2009). Indian cities are growing rapidly; more and more megacities1 emerge. There is a substantial need for adaptation to climate change in both, rural and urban areas. 1 A megacity is usually defined as a metropolitan area with a total population in excess of 10 million people. 4 However, the concentration of people in towns and cities can make them places of successful and efficient adaptation and of high need for mitigation efforts. Compared to high income countries India’s carbon emissions are still relatively low, especially when looking at its per capita emissions (about 1.31 metric tones of CO2 per capita and year in 2006; Germany 10.70, USA 18.10 for the same period and unit; UNSTATS, August 2009). However, the total CO2 emission equivalents account to about 1.1 billion metric tones per year (see Figure 1 and 2) and are projected to rise substantially. Until 2030 India’s total CO2 emissions might reach close to the European Union’s (EU) level of about 4 billion metric tonnes (UN, 2009). Other sources estimate an even stronger increase with up to 7 billion metric tonnes per year in 2031/2032 (TERI’s business as usual calculations presented at Poznan 2008; CSE India). Globally, India is therefore projected to become a big emitter of CO2 emissions in the near future. Discussions about India’s mitigation perspective are not far-fetched. Figure 2-1: Carbon Emissions in the USA, the EU, China and India, 2005 and 2030 Source: UN (2008), p.136 5 Figure 2-2: Total CO2 Emissions by country, in 2000 Source: Marland et al. (2003) Looking at impacts and adaptation, India’s situation is different. It has currently a high, above average vulnerability and might be able to lower its vulnerability to a modest, below average state by 2050. Figure 2.3 shows India’s vulnerability in a global comparison and for a high emission scenario in 2050. Figure 2.4 pictures one indicator of its current vulnerability, climate change related death. We need to point out however that the non-accountable or non-measurable impacts can expected to be much higher. Figure 2-3: Geographical distribution of vulnerability in 2050 without mitigation and a static representation of current adaptive capacity along an SRES A2 emissions scenario with a climate sensitivity of 5.5°C Source: IPCC, AR4 WGII TS, p.77 6 Figure 2-4: Estimated death attributed to climate change in the year 2000 compared to baseline climate 1961-1990, by sub-regions Source: McMichael, JJ et al. (2004); http://www.news.wisc.edu/11878 Despite India’s significant vulnerability to climate change, the present discourse on climate change impacts, sensitivity and adaptive capacities seems to be small. Reusswig et al. (2009) discourse analysis also show that climate change in India is mainly discussed against the background of mitigation possibilities and needs. The impacts and potential adaptation options have so far gained limited attention. India’s first National Action Plan on Climate Change (Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change, 2008) supported this presumption. The technical document covers 41 pages in total. Three out of these 41 pages describe current programs on impacts and adaptation, 2 out of 8 missions under climate change address impacts and adaptation whereas 5 are looking at mitigation issues. On the national policy level, climate change was assigned to the Ministry of Environment and Forests formerly and has been moved to the Prime Ministers (PM) Office in 2007. There and then, the PM’s Council on Climate Change was launched. Since, the issue of climate change has gained importance within the national, political arena, but aspects of impacts and adaptation seem to be handled as subordinate issue, still. The national Ministry of Urban Development, which is of interest for our focus on Hyderabad, does not have a particular focus on climate change (yet), and this position or circumstance trickles down to the state, the district and the local level, where most impacts are felt hardest. If it would be true that climate change in India is mainly discussed with respect to the mitigation of climate change and carbon emission reductions, there is a high need for impacts and adaptation studies. India’s increasing urbanization adds another reason for a rising need of impact assessments in cities. The UN has estimated that urban inequalities (Ginicoefficient for consumption) in India are still relatively low compared to other countries in Asia, and that they remained constant since about the 1970s. This is 7 an achievement especially under the consideration of India’s recent developmental trends and average income gains. However, noting that India’s slum prevalence is between 25.1-50% (UN Habitat, 2008) with Hyderabad being at about 30% (MCH, 2005) this achievement in relative urban equality translates into a huge part of the population being poor and living in slums. Providing them and other vulnerable groups of the society with sound information of climate change impacts and adaptation options is the central aim of WP1 in the Hyderabad megacities network. The identification of the overall impacts of climate on the natural and anthropogenic environment of Hyderabad as a megacity of tomorrow and the development of qualitative impact networks as graphical representation for the impact on selected urban subsystems is the first in a number of steps to do so and the aim of this paper. More precisely, the following key questions will be answered: • What are the principal climate variables that drive and constrain the transportation as well as water and energy sector, health and food availability in Hyderabad? • What are the principal impacts of the identified key climate variables and processes on transport, water, energy, health and food in Hyderabad? • What are the interactions between various impacts and how do they contribute to Hyderabad’s aerosol and greenhouse gases emissions? Before we introduce the methodology and present the results we will give a short overview of Hyderabad, its economic, demographic and social context and its role in the Indian urban hierarchy. We will also reflect on the status of the issue areas: transport, water, energy, health and food. 2.2 Introduction to Hyderabad and its urban subsystems 2.2.1 Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh/ India) Hyderabad is a fast growing megacity in the central south of India. After Bangalore, situated about 500km to Hyderabad’s South, it is the second most important economic centre for the Indian IT-industry. Another strand of the local economy lies on the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industry. Hyderabad is one of the fastest growing cities in India. With a population of 5,530,000 million people in 2001 it is the sixth largest city in India (Ministry of Urban Development, Census of India). The Hyderabad Urban Agglomeration (HUA) consists of the Municipal Corporation of Hyderabad (MCH), 12 peripheral municipalities, Secunderabad Cantonment, Osmania University and other areas. The population of HUA increased from 4.3 million in 1991 to 5.7 million in 2001. The population grew by more than 50 % during 1981-91 and by 8 about 27% during 1991-2001. However, several well established urban components of the city are located well beyond the Urban Agglomeration (MCH, 2005). The population density was 7,393 people/km² (2001) in the whole urban agglomeration (HUA) and about 21,048 people/km² in the core area of MCH (MCH, 2005). For comparison, Berlins population density is about half of that with 3831 people/km² and 13381 people/km² in the core area of Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg (Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg, 2008). Hyderabad’s future population was given with an estimated 6.5 million people in 2005, with 7.7 million people in 2011 and 10.8 million in 2021 (MCH, 2005). The urban agglomeration can therefore be called a megacity by around 2020, whereas the scenarios for the wider urban agglomeration (HMDA area) project a crossing of the 10 million mark by 2015 (MCH, 2005). Due to its central location within India and the fact that Hyderabad is situated on the Deccan Plateau its climate is rather mild. The monsoon climate brings rain from June to October (with two peaks in July and September)(see Lüdeke and Budde, 2009). Hyderabad has a hilly and rocky orography, compared to other regions in India it is rather dry and far away from bigger rivers. 2.2.2 State of the transport sector in Hyderabad: supply and demand Hyderabad’s transport situation is overshadowed by the enormous number of motorized vehicles on the roads causing protracted traffic jams and air pollution. The rapid increase in two- and four-wheelers in recent years is mainly made responsible for the burgeoning traffic situation (see Schäfer et al., 2009). Figure 5 shows the development of motorization in India as a whole. Figure 6 and 7 set this development into perspective by comparing the so called Tier1 cities. The Andhra Pradesh Pollution Control Board (discussion at the APPCB) estimates that 2.2 Mio. vehicles exist in Hyderabad, and 600 are added each day. Figure 2-5: Sale of cars and twowheelers, 19932001 (in thousand) Source, all: 3iNetwork (2006), p.107. 9 Figure 2-6: Percentage Growth in Figure 2-7: Share of two-wheelers Population and Vehicles (1981-2001) in total registered vehicles, 31 March 2003 in selected metro cities Key: 1 lakh = 100,000 Hyderabad’s transportation requirements are largely met by four transportation modes: buses, the rail based Multi Modal Transport System (MMTS), the paratransit of three and seven seated autos, and private vehicles. Buses serve most of the public transport holding a modal share of 42% and a 4% fleet, while serving 98.3% of all trips made by public transport. The MMTS provides a share of 1.7% of the public transport offered, while the Para transit contributes to nearly 10% of all vehicles. The mode share of private vehicles (two and four wheelers) sums up to about 50% of the total vehicular traffic (MCH, 2005). Due to the increase in traffic, walking and cycling has almost become impossible on many major roads in the city. Flyovers (elevated roads to serve faster traffic flows) dominate the city skyline and the bus transportation system is rather insufficient. Hyderabad is in the same situation as other cities in India in that respect, i.e. the share of buses in relation to the total registered vehicles in India was constantly decreasing since 1952 (3iNetwork, 2006). Urban/suburban trains are serving commuters and intra-urban passengers, but the overall acceptance in Hyderabad is low (Schäfer et al., 2009). The MMTS serves only 1.7% of commuting passengers (35,000 passenger trips per day; MCH, 2005), while the rest of the trips are taken by bus. A very low frequency of about 40 to 80 minutes between two successive trains during peak periods is one reason, lack of integration with the bus-system and high fares (for many households in absolute terms, but also as compared to transport in other urban agglomerations of India; 3iNework, 2006) being others (MCH, 2005). A metro line was planned and its construction started but has now been differed due to unethical business, corruption and bankruptcy of the construction company. There are strong protests against such metro line as the prices would be even higher than the existing systems and would therefore only serve a very small proportion of the society. However, only 30% of all commuters in Hyderabad use public transport for commuting anyway (discussion at the APPCB). 10 Public road transport in Hyderabad is still operated by diesel and petrol (only). The taxis, auto rickshaws and buses, have not yet been converted to run with compressed natural gas (CNG) as seen in other big cities of India, e.g. in Delhi, nor to alternative energy sources such as hydrogen. But, the introduction is planed for next year (discussion at the APPCB). However and despite the advantages that CNG brings to decreasing air pollution levels, its health effects are still under discussion. It is not clear whether a reduction in the size of particular matter results in a positive or negative impact on respiratory diseases (Bose and Sundar, 2005). Moreover, using CNG in motorized transport does not gain in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Much in contrast, CNG seems to cause slightly higher CO2 emissions/kilometre of driving in the Indian context (ARAI, 2007). This is certainly an aspect to keep in mind when focusing on the climate impacts on Hyderabad’s transport sector. Despite the massive increase in motorized individual traffic and registered vehicles in India and Hyderabad, projected future mode shares are clearly pointing towards an increase in public transport and cycling (see Figure 8). It is a testimony for strong motivations and challenging visions. Figure 2-8: Projected mode share of vehicular trips per day Source: 3iNetwork (2006), p116. For a detailed view on Hyderabad’s transport situation see Schäfer et al. (2009). 11 2.2.3 State of the water sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand, (in)security At the beginning of the 21st century Hyderabad received approximately 25million m3 of water/month from rivers and reservoirs plus an extra of about 3.3million from ground sources (van Rooijen et al, 2005). However, those numbers should be handled with care as up to 30-50% of water is lost during transportation and a significant amount of groundwater extraction cannot be documented (van Rooijen et al, 2005; Zérah, 2005). Groundwater resources are extremely stressed as exploitation and recharge are highly mismatching. In some areas of Hyderabad such as the Rasoolpura slum only 15% of the groundwater is naturally recharged, with the remaining fraction coming either from leaking water mains (50%) or sewers (35%)(Mondialogo, 2007). The Hyderabad Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board (HMWSSB) is a statutory authority in charge of providing and maintaining water supply and sewerage facilities in Hyderabad and surrounding municipalities. According to the HMWSSB, the following external water sources are used to augment the water supply in Hyderabad: Table 2-1: External water supply sources for Hyderabad Source Name Osmansagar Himayatsagar Manjira – Phase I & II Manjira – Phase III & IV Krishna Phase-I Krishna PhaseII Total Year of Commission Distance from the city, km 1920 1927 15 (gravity) 9.6 (gravity) 1965 & 1981 58 (pumping) 1991 & 1994 80 (pumping) 2004/05 2006-08 116 (pumping/gravity) 116 (pumping/gravity) Capacity Installed (Mgd) 27 18 45 (15+30) 75 (37 + 38) Present Supply Quantity (Mgd) Storage (TMC) 3.90 2.967 18 10 1.500 45 30.00 75 90 90 1.50 90 345 90 39.816 328 Source: MCH (2005) Hyderabad City Development Plan. Key: Mgd – Mega gallons per day; TMC - thousand million cubic feet The main sources of surface water for Hyderabad are therefore from the following four rivers: 12 • Osmansagar on River Musi • Himayatsagar on Esi River • Manjira River • Krishna River Despite the partly long distances of water transportation, the water availability for drinking purposes is insufficient and, according to Savage and Dasgupta (2006) rapidly deteriorating over time. In the early 1980ies, the Hyderabad population was served with water on average 19 hours per day. Challenged by the explosion of population numbers and an ageing infrastructure this level could not be hold. The result is a decrease of the average water delivery to about 2.5 hours per day in the 1990ies and to 1.5 hours per day after 2000 (Savage and Dasgupta, 2006). Any variability in precipitation, let alone extreme climate events, further aggravates that situation as it has a direct impact on the drinking water supply in Hyderabad. Man-made water tanks and small reservoirs are a potential answer to the deteriorating situation, but their water holding capacity is also fluctuating over time. The ageing reservoirs are filled up with sediments and do not reach the designed holding capacity anymore, e.g. like the Osmansagar and Himayatsagar reservoirs. At the same time, ancient reservoirs such as Hussainsagar are unusable at all due to the accumulation of toxic sediments. The water storage capacity of the reservoirs is further constrained by the construction of check dams and encroachments in their catchment areas (Ramachandraiah, 2007). Access to external water resources incurs in significant costs which have to be met by HMWSSB and ultimately by the population. Due to Hyderabad’s orography, water resources from the Krishna river basin need to be pumped into the city, leaving HMWSSB with an electricity bill of Rs. 18/m3. At the same time, one m3 of free-flowing water from Osmansagar and Himayatsagar costs the board only Rs 3.50. Further, the board is faced with the debt-servicing burden of the Krishna water project, amounting to several crores per month (Veda Kumar et al., 2007). The water-related constraints of a sustainable development of Hyderabad cannot be considered a natural or technological phenomenon alone. Often, it is the discriminatory access and a lack in quantum that deprives a certain sections of the population. Hence, the droughts that periodically affect Hyderabad are better understood as a result from alternative patterns of demand and not always as a decrease in water as such (Jairath and Mustafa, 2008). 13 2.2.4 State of the energy sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand, (in)security India’s energy industry is characterised by an almost constantly occurring “energy-crunch” (3iNetwork, 2006). This does not only but most urgently count for electricity. Electricity is the major source of energy for most of the urban middle and upper class households, as its use increases with social status and income. The urban poor mainly rely on other fuels such as coal, kerosene, petroleum or firewood to cover their most urgent energy needs, e.g. for cooking. They are often undersupplied with electricity. However, high-energy consuming equipment is frequently seen among all household classes and in industrial plants in particular, often because of the lack of capital to replace it with energyefficient ones and partly because of a lacking need to care due to power theft (3iNetwork, 2006). The increasing need for electricity on the demand side collides with a widespread mismanagement of the electricity distribution system on the supply side. This leads to a suffering of the poorer households, who often need to buy their energy in form of inefficient fuels. Although the government subsidizes energy, it is not likely to reach them. Big-scale electricity theft, mainly of big industries, aggravates the energy crises. Frequent power cuts are the norm, energy efficiency is very low and energy conservation rare. The substantial gap between electricity supply and demand raises big concerns about energy security. In 2001, the gap between electricity demand and supply was 7.8%, with peak power shortage being as high as 13%. About 70% of electrical capacity in India as a whole is based on the use of coal resources; nearly 75% of the coal consumed is used for power generation purposes (3iNetwork). Renewable energy sources are seen as one viable option to meet the increasing energy demand in urban areas although they are yet little explored. Table 2-2 shows a comparison between the potential and the already implemented capacity of various renewable energy sources (national averages). Solar-assisted energy generation seems to be most appropriate and viable for the implementation in urban areas (3iNetwork), although the suitability might differ from city to city. 14 Table 2-2: Renewable energy potential and achievements in India Source: 3iNetwork (2006), p194. Viability of renewable energy sources is one major component of WP3.2 and WP2.1 of the research network. For a detailed view on that and other issues of energy provision, demand and security in the Hyderabad region see therefore also Rommel et al. (2009) and Reusswig et al. (2009). 2.2.5 State of the health sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand, (in)security Reliable data on health and food security is hard to ascertain as the official authorities, e.g. the Indian Ministry of Health and Welfare, do not collect data on health care (Rastogi, 2006) and food related aspects. There is no uniform organizational structure for health services and no efficient public health care system. Municipal and private sector hospitals, including those of voluntary organizations, exist parallel and most of these services are not intended to serve the urban poor and slum population. This is particularly fatal as the high poverty levels coincide with appalling slum conditions and a climate conducive to the occurrence of communicable diseases and its multiplication (Rastogi, 2006). This means that for about 30% of the slum population in Hyderabad (MCH, 2005) no effective health care system is available. To improve the situation 64 primary health care centres were newly established in Hyderabad’s slums recently (MCH, 2005). Without disregarding the incomplete picture concerning the health data, Prasad and Ramachandraiah (2007) have indicated major tendencies in the health sector in Hyderabad. They found that communicable diseases and infections are on a renascent trend in previous years. Especially the high numbers of diarrhea and 15 enteric fever among children in slum colonies are distressing. MCH (2005) has recorded that gastro-enteritis, dysentery, liver enlargement, malnutrition, ringworm, scabies and other skin diseases are frequently found in Hyderabad’s slums. A point of concern is also the abrupt rise of Chikungunya2 cases in 2006. Tuberculosis, Diphtheria and Malaria are the most frequent causes for morbidity in Hyderabad. The ground water supply and its quality play a crucial role in the health aspects; groundwater is an important source of water for the Hyderabad’s population and industries. A rapid industrialization and uncontrolled exploitation of ground water resulted in a fast depletion of these resources in the last decades (see above). In many areas close to industrial plants, for example Katedan, Sanathnagar, Patancheru, Saroornagar and Jeedimetla groundwater is infiltrated with hazardous chemical substances and not suitable for human consumption (MCH, 2005). In Table 2-3 the basic services, including drinking water supply and sanitation facilities for all slum colonies of the MCH area are displayed (third row). Please note the number of toilets for the slum population. About one third of the slums have individual water service connections and the rest depend upon public taps. 2 Chikungunya virus is an insect-borne virus that is transmitted to humans by virus-carrying Aedes mosquitoes and causes an illness with symptoms similar to dengue fever. 16 Table 2-3: Basic infrastructure in Slums Source: MCH (2005). Health concerns in India also relate to air quality. The Andhra Pradesh Pollution Control Board has estimated recently that the citizens of Hyderabad breathe in 691 tons of air pollutants every day. Of this, CO has a share of 392 tons, HC 240 tons, NOX 44 tons, SO2 6 tons, and SPM 10 tons and lead 0.162 tons (MCH, 2005). 2.2.6 State of the food sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand, (in)security In India, the food supply chain is generally operated at two levels, the farmer’s and the food processor level. Due to natural characteristics, monsoon patterns, particularities of crops, market characteristics, etc. the supply chain in India is, unlike in Europe, disjointed. The food supply chain(s) on the farmer’s level depends on people, their machines, vehicles, vessels, containers, tools and other tackles that help to distribute the food. On the processor level it depends on a multitude of other infrastructural facilities, i.e. roads, ports, railway lines, airports, pipelines and ropeways, but also on storage possibilities and warehouses that only provide support in time (Acharyulu, 2006). Urban food demand has recently seen two trends in food consumption and security. First, more purchasing power in the middle class leads to more fast food and to eating at chains. This leads to the “rich-country” health problems such as obesity among children and diabetes moving forward. Second, at the same time there are still plenty of marginalized urban dwellers that suffer from food insecurity, malnutrition and poor health. “Among them, hunger is 17 increasing and there is a lack of access to health centers” (Christoph Dittrich). Declared state-level food security does not necessarily translate into householdlevel food security. “The urban poor, particularly, rely on street foods to provide them with a variety of food items that otherwise would not be accessible to them in close proximity to their place of residence” (Smith et al., 2007). As a consequence of both trends, the overall percentage of household money spent on food has dropped steadily in Andhra Pradesh during the last decades (see Table 2-4). Among many households, the enormous price increases for rice (“to historical highs globally”, BBC News, 13 April 2008) in recent years might be one factor; employment loss can be another. As unstable jobs result in unstable incomes and urban households, unlike many rural households, need to earn money to procure their food, especially the urban households are vulnerable to hunger and malnutrition. The amount of money available per day and household is often so little that food has to be bought on a day by day basis. This translates into higher prices per unit (as compared to buying larger volumes) and is felt as an enormous increase in food insecurity among the urban poor (Smith et al., 2007). The urban middle and upper classes on the other hand earn more and spend less, if it comes to the percentage of income used for food. Both trends might lead to a decrease of expenditure for food. Table 2-4: Per capita consumption expenditure in urban areas Source: Planning Commission of India (2001), p.152. A pattern of food consumption in a peri-urban area of Hyderabad is shown in Figure 2-9. 18 Figure 2-9: Food consumption pattern in the peri-urban Uppal area Source: Buechler and Devi (2003) Collective data to the food supply of Hyderabad’s population does to our knowledge not exist. Thus, it is not clear where the food is produced. 12% of the MCH area is used as open ground and for agricultural purposes (MCH, 2005). The so produced crops are consumed by the members of the farmer’s household directly or sold on the city markets (Buechler and Devi, 2003). The most common crops cultivated within the city area are para grass for animal feeding, green leafy vegetables, banana and coconut palms (Figure 2-10). Surpluses of agricultural products from Hyderabad’s peri-urban areas are also commonly brought into the city and marketed there. Distances up to 60 km for fresh fruits and vegetables and up to 100 km for wheat are commonly daily crossed to deliver agricultural products to Hyderabad’s markets (Interview partner of AFPRO, 2009). Figure 2-10: Proportion of crops grown in Hyderabad urban area Source: Buechler and Devi, 2003 19 2.3 Methods We follow an Integrated Assessment (IA) approach on the local and regional levels as adopted from Kapshe et al. (2003). Figure 2-11 pictures the IA framework when adapted to the regional situation and specifies details of responsibility in the project. WP2.1 Global Emissions and Atmospheric Change Lokal/regional Emissions: Enegy systems, other emissions F Mitigation Combined scenario exercise Global Policy Regimes and International Agreements Temperature rise, precipitation change, drought and flood e Socio Economic Development Paths: d population, economy, technology, governance a Adaptation Climate Change: Adaptation WP1 e WP1 b c k Figure 2-11: Integrated Assessment framework for the local and regional level Adopted from: Kapshe et al. (2003); modified Impacts: Human (and natural) urban systems To derive conclusions about the impacts of future climate change on human (and natural) systems we start with an analysis of present and recent climate impacts on urban subsystems in Hyderabad. In general, an impact analysis demands three steps: (1) evaluate future climate change stresses (part of WP1’s task to evaluate climate change scenarios), (2) detect the direction (and, if possible, the magnitude) of influence of climate variables on certain subsystems, and (3) identify potential thresholds for its functioning, the boundary of the subsystems’ coping capacity and a means for its inherent sensitivity, i.e. when the risk of a climate change impact becomes “dangerous” (Shukla, 2003). The latter two aspects are part of this investigation, whereas in our view a threshold of coping capacity as mentioned in (3) is crossed, when an impact is reported in the news or literature. We therefore do not only account for dangerous impacts, but also for damages in general. We employed an extensive literature review (scientific papers), conducted expert interviews and searched the newspapers. We will shortly explain each of the methods used. 20 2.3.1 Literature An extensive literature research was accomplished for all relevant topics of WP1 on the basis of scientific papers, books and web articles. A keyword search in the ISI Web of Knowledge and different internet search machines was used to identify relevant articles and books. Then, an iterative search of references within these papers resulted in a wide range of literature being used. 2.3.2 Indian News We analyzed regional and national Indian newspapers that are published in English language. The Hindu (5.3 million readers) and the Times of India (13.5 million readers), which are both nationwide, and the Deccan Chronicle (5 million readers; all figures: Media Research Users Council, 2008), which is a regional newspaper in Andhra Pradesh were used for investigation. The news was inspected in various ways: 1. Reading the daily news online (newspapers version) – starting 3 April 09 (including weekends, when articles are still available on Monday). 2. Using the paper version of newspapers collected in India for two complete weeks (23 January to 5 February). 3. Selecting archived news from The Hindu online (starting 1 Jan 2000). 4. Daily news of the Deccan Chronicle, The Hindu, The Times of India, The Hindustan Times was skim-read for relevant topics during our stay in India. The pages with relevant articles were taken back home and reviewed intensively. News from the collected newspaper as well as the daily news gives an insight into the topics discussed in the newspapers during a non-monsoon time with no specific occasion. 5. A database of articles from The Hindu archive had been compiled by WP2.1 based on a keyword search. This was made available to us. A review of all relevant articles was accomplished. Here, the news articles are used as a source of information on relevant topics. Furthermore, a list of precipitation events during the time period 2000-2008 was used for an in-depth analysis of news. For the strongest 3% of all precipitation events, which are 20 events altogether, the news in The Hindu was examined (see Figure 2-12). All news in the context to these precipitation events was collected and the discussed topics summarized in a table (Appendix III). We started collecting news on the day of rainfall and proceeded along the days until no more news with relevance to the precipitation event were found. This approach can be extended for heat wave or drought events. 21 Begumpet/Hyderabad Precipitation Records Prc [mm] 30 per. Mov. Avg. (Prc [mm]) 250 200 150 100 50 Figure 2-12: Daily precipitation records in Begumpet/Hyderabad Source: own work 2.3.3 Interviews During a research stay in Hyderabad stakeholder interviews were conducted. Relevant stakeholders from administrations, NGOs and community groups working with climate change, its reduction and potential impacts and adaptation options were approached and asked for an interview. Many contacts existed from the pre-phase of the Hyderabad project; other key persons were found through internet research. WP1 could profit from the stakeholder analysis in WP2.1. The interviews were conducted face to face with either, potential experts in a certain subsystem of the urban area (e.g. a medical doctor for the respective impacts on health), or experts in climate change studies (e.g. the founders from The Climate Alliance). Both views can help answering our research questions. We developed an open interview guideline to assure a certain degree of comparability of the results and minimize subliminal interference/manipulation by the interviewer. The interview guideline is attached as appendix, as well as the list of interviewees. 2.4 Results Four climate variables with relevance to the impacts on urban functions (see also Satterthwaite et al., 2007, McMichael et al., 2003) have been identified (see Lüdeke and Budde, 2009). These are: 22 20.11.2007 10.09.2007 01.07.2007 21.04.2007 09.02.2007 30.11.2006 20.09.2006 11.07.2006 01.05.2006 19.02.2006 10.12.2005 30.09.2005 21.07.2005 11.05.2005 01.03.2005 20.12.2004 10.10.2004 31.07.2004 21.05.2004 11.03.2004 31.12.2003 21.10.2003 11.08.2003 01.06.2003 22.03.2003 10.01.2003 31.10.2002 21.08.2002 11.06.2002 01.04.2002 20.01.2002 10.11.2001 31.08.2001 21.06.2001 11.04.2001 30.01.2001 20.11.2000 10.09.2000 01.07.2000 21.04.2000 10.02.2000 01.12.1999 21.09.1999 12.07.1999 02.05.1999 20.02.1999 11.12.1998 01.10.1998 22.07.1998 12.05.1998 02.03.1998 21.12.1997 11.10.1997 01.08.1997 22.05.1997 Jahr 12.03.1997 0 • the frequency distribution of daily precipitation, e.g. heavy rain events which cause urban flooding, • the frequency and length of heat waves, • the total annual precipitation, • the mean annual temperature in the region. From these four major climate variables a multitude of impacts follow for the Hyderabad transport sector, i.e. the users of certain transport modes and the infrastructure to sustain it (Lüdeke and Budde, 2009). In the following the impacts of these variables on the sectors of interest are looked at in detail. 2.4.1 Impacts of climate change on the transport sector in Hyderabad The transport sector provides mobility, which is the service to enable a translocation of goods and people in space. Climate can impact on mobility in mainly three ways by (1) reducing passenger safety and the transportation of goods due to a direct damage of passengers or infrastructures, (2) impacting on the reliability of the transport, and in the case of passenger transport, (3) reducing the comfort of travel (Reckien et al., 2009). Infrastructure is typically designed to tolerate a reasonable level of variability within a climate regime that existed when it was designed and built. However, climate change can affect both average conditions and the probability of extreme events, which may influence the infrastructure in the long run. As direct impacts on the transport system following issues can be named: • the (potentially increasing) exposure to flooding, rain water runoff and landslides • the (potentially increasing) exposure to heat and heatwaves in the city particularly under consideration of the heat island effect • the change of evapotranspiration and soilwater content Hereafter, these impacts and their effects are discussed in more detail. 23 Exposure to flooding, rain water runoff and landslides Effects for passengers Flash floods and heavy rain during the monsoon season can in its simplest way cause chaos on the roads, traffic jams, diversion of traffic (e.g. buses (e.g. 26.07.2006, The Hindu), trains (e.g. 23.08.2000, The Hindu) and related delays or the failure and disruption of transportation, e.g. train cancellation (e.g. 27.10.2005; 30.10.2005, The Hindu). Particularly, if roads are blocked or bridges submerged certain parts of Hyderabad are cut from services and deliveries (Vikram Aditya, Hyderabad Climate Alliance). In a more severe manner floods are causing road accidents (e.g. 07.08.08, The Hindu), train derailing (e.g. 11.07.2005, The Hindu), injuries of passengers and fatalities. However, impacts on the transport system do not only depend on climate variables but also on the state of the system. Patch work repairs are often blamed to help little, where new sewage lines would be needed. As an example, an Exec. Engineer from GHMC blames the Water Supply and Sewage Board for faulty sewage lines that periodically damage roads. He states that a “new sewage line [is the] only way out”, but the board has not responded (The Hindu, 30.01.2009). A member of the Center for Economic and Social Studies (CESS) claims that rainwater is always drained over the roads because the drainage is poor and there is no difference between little or more heavy rain (Mr. Ramachandraiah, CESS). Effects on infrastructures Infrastructures are expected to be more affected by flooding or landslides than by (rather) graduate temperature changes (Shukla et al., 2003). Hyderabad has a hilly orography where landslides and water can pour down the slopes after heavy rain, potentially damaging the roads, trains or other infrastructure. Mainly during the monsoon season and especially when rainfall occurs consecutively enormous amounts of rainfall bring such amounts of rainfall that the coping capacity of roads and rail tracks is exceed. Many roads in the older city parts of Hyderabad are afterwards damaged and washed away, particularly bitumen roads. Other built infrastructures can be damaged and washed away as well (The Hindu, 07.08.08), train tracks are washed out. Electronics in transport infrastructure, e.g. track switches i.e., can be affected by increasing humidity. All of this causes higher maintenance costs. In terms of the spatial distribution of damages throughout the city, it is said that during the monsoon the whole city is badly affected (AFDC). Already under normal rain conditions Panjagutta is one of the most affected junctions, because it is badly constructed and situated in a low lying area of the city (Poonam Pandit, Greenpeace India). 24 Exposure to heat and heatwaves in the city Effects for passengers Periods of heat become more complicated to bear the longer they last and night temperatures are slowly rising as well. Then the human body is more stressed and effects on health are more probable. During heatwaves many passengers feel a strong discomfort to travel, the human body gets tired rapidly, and incidences of heat stroke increase. Temperatures in closed vehicles or with no air movement are particularly dangerous. The passengers but also the drivers, e.g. bus drivers or rickshaw driver when they park to wait for customers, are particularly affected (Reckien et al., 2009). People waiting for buses in the sun with regularly no shelter that is being provided will feel the extreme heat. Policemen might not be able to do their jobs on road crossings in the complete sun (Dr. Sh. S. Sheikh, Tarnaka Medical Doctor). Traffic jams will increase and roads be blocked. Delays would need to be expected for air travel when airports have to close because of a decrease in "lift" under extremely hot air (Shukla, 2003). Due to the expected increasing use of air conditionings (ACs) people might loose immunity against small diseases. Further, ACs with insufficient filter systems help to spread diseases among a large number of people (Dr. Sh.S. Sheikh, Tarnaka Medical Doctor). Effects on infrastructures Under increasing temperatures asphalt roads will be softened and experience more deformation. Concrete roads are known to "explode" or buckle. Train tracks will warp and experience more lateral buckling. Under these conditions there is an increased risk for trains derailing. Trains have to go slower with likely impacts on travel time for passengers. An increase of mechanical failures in automobiles and trucks is also likely. Engines will heat up fast; especially the buses will face significant problems (Dr. Sh. S. Sheikh, Tarnaka Medical Doctor). Change of evapotranspiration and soilwater content Effects for passengers Heat waves are often connected to drought periods. Under drought conditions problems with dust pollution rises. Long-lasting road works, which are frequent on Hyderabad’s roads, cause an increase in dust and related air pollution, pose a major health risk to the population, minimize the drivers view and rise the risk of accidents (Deccan Chronicle; 24.01.2009). 25 On the contrary, under rather wet and rainy conditions air travel at the new Shamshabad airport near Hyderabad is affected by foggy weather, because many flights from and to Europe arrive or start in the morning hours. Delays for several hours are common when take-off and landing is impossible. It is said that these conditions are recently increasing and that it also happens in winter as “unseasonal” rains occur nowadays (approximately in the last 10 years) (Shalini Sharma, CCC ESCI). Further challenges might occur in future seasons, in months when the soil moisture is high and the rain is increasing. Effects on infrastructures When the soil moisture content is decreasing under drought conditions, road surfaces can scarify with likely effects for the built infrastructure on top. Maintenance cost increase. If heavy rain events occur after drought conditions there is an increased risk for flash floods. The impacts on the transport sector and infrastructures are shown in Figure 2-13. 26 Figure 2-13: Climate Impacts on transport and infrastructures. Source: own work Mitigation and adaptation problems There exists a variety of cross-relations between potential adaptation and mitigation aspects in the transport sector. An obvious cross-relation is the increased need for cooling of transport means and the related increase in energy, (potentially) fossil fuels, and CO2 emissions. Another connection refers to the use of public transport in general. If it is not upgraded substantially in the future people might use it less and less, as the increase in temperatures, heat and overcrowding make it less comfortable to travel. People underline that using the 27 buses is particularly stressful already under current conditions. A decrease in public transport will negatively impact on Hyderabad’s CO2 emissions. Other problems for adaptation occur due to the multitude of agencies involved in the transport sector in Hyderabad. E.g., GHMC and HUDA are in charge of the provision and maintenance of the road infrastructure, while the public transport and the MMTS system is taken care of by APSRTC, a parastatal agency. No single agency is solely responsible and accountable for traffic and transport management. This results in overlapping functions, spatial and functional fragmentation (MCH, 2005). 2.4.2 Impact of climate change on the energy sector in Hyderabad The energy sector is more sensitive to changes in temperature than to a change in precipitation and its patterns. Due to the heat island effect in urban areas, Hyderabad will be more affected than its rural surrounding. The enormous reduction in urban green spaces and tree cover over the last decades has already contributed to it and will continue to do so. Direct impacts and effects on the energy sector are expected as follows: • Potentially reduced intra-annual water availability, although annual mean precipitation might increase (very high uncertainty, see Lüdeke and Budde, 2009) • Increasing seasonal temperatures and exposure to heat waves They entail indirect impacts, such as: • Increasing events of floods and flash floods • Reduced energy generation capabilities • Increased energy demand for residential and industrial cooling These impacts are described in more detail hereafter. Potentially reduced intra-annual water availability Effects for the population The problems of energy availability and distribution in Hyderabad are directly linked to climate variables. Andhra Pradesh is heavily reliant on thermal (coal and gas) sources of power for electricity production. According to APGENCO, from April 2008 to March 2009 thermal power contributed to the majority of the 28 total power supply in the state (APGENCO, 2009). Given the current energy generation patterns in Andhra Pradesh, a significant increase in energy generation (especially during water-scarce months) would be produced by thermal power plants running on fossil fuel. Thermal power plants hence play a major role in Hyderabad aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the strong reliance on thermal power plants, any shortage of water in reservoirs is by the local media immediately perceived as a threat to energy supply and security. E.g., the failures of Srisailam und Nagarjunasagar hydropower stations due to insufficient water flows are considered as one of the key causes of the electricity shortages in Hyderabad during the summer months of 2008 (The Hindu, 15.08.2008). The local stakeholders and the scientific community state that peak energy demand in Hyderabad takes place in summer, particularly in the dry months before the rainy season. The energy is increasingly consumed by water extraction and distribution facilities as well as by industrial and residential cooling installations. As the economic boom in Hyderabad progresses, more and more participants enter the energy market with their electricity demands for cooling purposes – a demand, which is not always possible to fulfil by current infrastructure and generation capacities (Sivak, 2008). At the moment 4 energy distribution companies operate in Hyderabad, generally meeting the demand during the monsoon and post-monsoon months, but failing to do so in the summer (Jawahar Reddy). The increase in population and economic activity make power cuts a common phenomenon in Hyderabad nowadays (e.g. The Hindu, 10.08.2008); under a future climate people expect this situation to deteriorate drastically, although it is still highly uncertain whether the mean annual amount of precipitation decreases in the future for the area around Hyderabad. It is possible that annual averages increase (Lüdeke and Budde, 2009). However, irregular patterns of precipitation with more extreme events, potentially higher run-off and flash floods are expected to result in proportionately lower inflow and lower water tables in the reservoirs (Poona Pandit, Greenpeace India) impacting negatively on hydropower supply. More power cuts are expected for the future (B Mukesh, STP Amberpet/Hyderabad, HMWSSB). Also power rationings seem likely (V. Aditya, Hyderabad Climate Change Alliance). Effects on infrastructures As with all built forms extensive rain water run-off and flash floods can cause damages to the energy infrastructure. Heavy rains connected with strong windstorms can damage electricity wires (Shalini Sharma, CCC ESCI; The 29 Hindu, 10.08.2008) and other electricity transmission infrastructure. Especially during the monsoon season when flooding is common this can have lethal impacts on the population. Broken, electrified wires are dipping in puddles, where people get hit by high-voltage. Extensive rain would have minor impacts on thermal power generations plants itself, which might also be a reason why it is expected to serve future demands more than hydropower. Kapshe et al. (2003) blame the long gestation period of projects, high investment costs and the total system’s capacity limitation due to natural resource constraints being responsible for the slow growth and declining share of hydropower in India. They do not expect hydropower to increase with further climatic change. Exposure to heat and heatwaves Effects for the population The very likely increase in energy demand due to increasing population, changing lifestyles, economic development and increasing mean as well as extreme temperatures will all contribute to an even stronger increase in electricity demand. With a need for more A/C for space cooling in buildings and transportation this will be acerbated and power rationing might follow (V. Aditya, Hyderabad Climate Alliance) particularly in summers and under conditions of heatwaves. The energy demand will increase further when the current agricultural practices are pursued in the future. The agricultural practise is potentially only profitable with a plus on water input. This will increase the energy demand further as many farmers rely on ground water for irrigation. As a response to power cuts many industries use generators, which increase air and noise pollution. An increase in energy demand in general will result in higher energy prices, probably more theft and the undersupply with energy of the most vulnerable in the urban area. Mitigation and adaptation problems In India and Hyderabad too, energy production, transmission and use is not very efficient. It is estimated that approximately 5kW of energy have to be generated to supply the end user with 1kW (Ch.V. Rao). In these figures lies a huge potential for both adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. Another problem relates to theft, which is not confined to small private end-users but also exists with big industries and firms. 30 2.4.3 Impact of climate change on water, energy and industries in Hyderabad The complexity of the issues of water availability, increasing demand and reduced supply, the interaction between agricultural practices and energy use (to pump up water from aquifers) but also the interactions between water availability and water use for energy production and other industries and their response to climate impacts cannot be overestimated. The key impacts in Hyderabad are generally situated in the area of supply and demand of a particular resource, be it water, energy or goods and services for industry, and very often have the potential to cause conflicts for the resource or suffering as the resource is not available. The following direct impacts have been identified for the water sector: • Seasonally reduced water availability, although annual mean precipitation might increase (very high uncertainty, see Lüdeke and Budde, 2009) • Increasing seasonal temperatures and exposure to heat waves • Increase of extreme flood events Indirect impacts and effects on the water sector are expected as follows: • Reduced groundwater refill • Reduced surface water storage • Increased water demand • Decrease of surface and groundwater quality Seasonally reduced water availability Spatial and temporal changes of precipitation patterns affect quantity and quality of surface and ground water distribution and hence their availability. The Krishna river basin has been predicted to undergo severe drought conditions under a GHG (Greenhouse Gas) scenario, caused by reduced levels of precipitation, increased evapotranspiration and water yield (Gosain et al, 2006). Reduced annual river flow coupled with increased water extraction from rivers during the hot months turns the appropriate filling of surface reservoirs into an almost unreachable ambition. While the amount of water provided through the Nagarjuna Sagar irrigation project might be sufficient for the supply of urban Hyderabad as it uses approximately 2% of irrigation canal flows under normal conditions (van Rooijen, 2005), this might not be true in the case of agriculture and general sustainable groundwater recharge. It is also acknowledged that the increase in urbanisation and the construction of a metro line have very negative impacts on the groundwater recharge in Hyderabad. This is due to decreased permeability of the soil because of a sealing of the city’s surfaces and the 31 alteration of flow/discharge patterns (P Adi Reddy, as quoted by The Times of India, 17.09.2008; interview with Dr. Shalini Sharma, 2.02.2009). Increased annual temperatures widen the gap between the supply of (sooner drying-up of surface water bodies) and demand for (human consumption) water resources in Hyderabad (interview with Dr. Ramachandraiah, 26.01.2009). Increasing seasonal temperatures, exposure to heat waves and increased water demand India is water-stressed today and is likely to be water-scarce by 2050 (Gupta and Deshpande, 2004). The country needs 6% of the global freshwater supply to sustain its population, agriculture and industry, but has access to only 4% of global freshwater resources (interview with Ch.V.Rao). As a rapidly growing city with about 10 Mio. people in 2015 (MCH, 2005) and being situated in a semiarid zone, Hyderabad has an enormous demand for water resources. Water is used for drinking purposes, but also in agriculture, as a resource or cooling agent in the industrial sector. In the hot and dry summer months Hyderabad also competes (and usually wins) against the neighbouring agricultural sector for the available drinking water resources. While the urban poor have very little opportunities to access safe drinking water during the months of overall water scarcity, the more socially superior groups enjoy the boom of bottled water supply (Zérah, 2005). Depleting local groundwater resources further increase the dependence of Hyderabad on external sources of water. Increased groundwater demand in various areas of Hyderabad such as Rasoolpura slum often causes the occurrence of depression cones, which not only reduce the amount of extractable water resources, but also influence the direction of groundwater flow (Mondialogo, 2007). Private water extraction companies, which operate without due control and licensing, often further reduce the overall availability of ground water resources (Zérah, 2005). During the heat wave of April 2007, the average groundwater level in Hyderabad dropped from 6.66 metres below sea level (BSL) to 8.04 metres, with some areas such as Marredpally suburb experiencing a drop from 14.63 to 21.29 metres BSL (The Hindu, 14.04.2007). This phenomenon decreases the general groundwater availability and increases the energy demand for water extraction. Under projected climate change there will be a higher need for water still, as all, drinking water requirements, cooling of industrial plants, irrigation needs for agricultural practices go up. The effects will be acerbated under conditions of heatwaves. 32 According to a general manager of one of Hyderabad’s wastewater treatment plants, there is a great risk of severe water supply shortage if catastrophic events such as 1983 drought reoccur. Although the technical capabilities of water supply from Krishna river might be sufficient to meet the demand, a significant portion of water supply would be diverted to the rural communities living along the pipelines and channels, as they would not allow HMWSSB to bring water to the cities otherwise (interview with B. Mukesh, 29.01.2009). The socioeconomic arrangements of water supply for Hyderabad are therefore at great risk during heat waves and droughts. Increase of extreme flood events Climate extremes are a normal feature of the Indian subcontinent. Extreme rainfall events and total monsoon rainfall heavily impact water availability with further consequences for energy and industry. Historically, such events were taking place fairly regularly and did ultimately shape the life of Indian society. Catastrophic floods go hand in hand with extreme drought events in Hyderabad and directly impact drinking water availability, causing infrastructure damage and water contamination by sewerage components. Climate change has the potential to further amplify the scale and frequency of catastrophic events, although the range and even the sign of change are very uncertain. For instance, a study based on the Hadley centre regional climate model HadRM2 suggests that river basins belonging to Cauvery, Ganga, Narmada and Krishna are expected to experience seasonal or regular water-stressed conditions. River basins belonging to Godavari, Brahmani and Mahanadi shall not have water shortages but are predicted to face severe flood conditions (Gosain et al, 2006). The summer monsoon rainfall contributes to 70-90% of the rainfall in the Krishna and Godavari river basins, and the monsoon patterns are likely to change too. The intensity and the number of extreme weather events are predicted to increase, particularly in the Godavari river basin, raising issues of flood control and wastewater capacity capabilities in urban settlements such as Hyderabad (DEFRA, 2005). A redistribution of rainfall towards more extremes is as disruptive as an absolute reduction of rainfall, if not more; the capacity limits of natural and artificial storage systems on the land portion of the hydrological cycle are frequently met (Vairavamoorthy et al., 2008). Encroachments of water bodies lead to extreme floods in the city as the watercourses lack the capacity to carry rainwater, thus inundating the areas in the vicinity (Prasad and Ramachandraiah, 2007). Although the quantum of water during the flood is far more than sufficient, it is the quality of water and the possibility to store it, which ultimately impacts the availability of water resources. 33 Insufficient industrial and residential wastewater treatment severely endangers the suitability of surface and ground waters for irrigation and drinking purposes, further reducing the pool of available water resources. Nevertheless, the contamination of surface and groundwater with sewage during flood events is not considered as an important issue in Indian media. The overflows of sewerage lines and subsequent contamination of water resources have been reported in a limited number of cases and areas, e.g. Karkhana and Saroornagar districts during the March 2008 flood (The Hindu, 24.03.2008). The relative lack of national media attention to the problem of non-catastrophic floods could be explained by the fact that the most affected areas are low-lying areas and ‘illegal colonies’ (interview with V. Venkateshwarlu, 30.01.2009), such as Amberpet, Kawarigoal and all areas around lake Sagar (interview with V. Aditya, 3.02.2009). Figure 2-14 summarises the explanations made about the impacts of climate change on the water sector and its relation to energy and industries. 34 Relevant climate dependent physical variables Relevant climate variables Emissions Global aerosol emissions Global radiation balance Global atmospheric & oceanic circulation Global greenhouse gas emissions Extreme rainfall events Heat waves Total monsoon rainfall averaged Averaged seasonal temperature Drainage Urban heat island effect River regulation Hyderabad aerosol emissions Hyderabad greenhouse gas emissions Flooding Soil water content Runoff Exposure Freshwater supply from reservoirs Groundwater refill Water quality Drinking water availability Water availability for energy production Drinking water demand Water demand for energy production Increased energy demand Extreme rainfall events Heat waves Water availability for industrial production Water demand for industrial production Increased demand for cooling/kWh Total monsoon rainfall Averaged seasonal temperature Figure 2-14: Climate impact on water, energy, industry. Source: own work 2.4.4 Impact of climate change on the health sector in Hyderabad Climate variables can either have a direct or an indirect effect on the human body; the latter, e.g., through complex biochemical or environmental processes (Mitra et al., 2003). We have identified the following key impacts of climate change on the health sector: 35 Direct: • Exposure to heat • Exposure to flooding • Insecure freshwater supply Indirect: • Public health infrastructure damages • Increased cooling • Air pollution • Food poisoning • Contamination of drinking water with bacteria or industrial waste • Favorable conditions for other disease vectors • Groundwater drawdown through contaminated wells Many of these impacts are related and interlinked; some of them mutually influence each other. In the following, we present them separately for structural reasons, only. The direct exposure to heat will become an increasing health risk with the increased occurrence of heat waves. The so-called “urban heat island effect” aggravates the situation. A dense built environment increases the temperature as compared to surrounding rural areas (Bitan, 2003). In many Indian cities, the urban heat island effect is increasing, especially with a changing style in architecture and more high-rise buildings. This effect is, e.g., described by Alam (2007) for Dhaka in Bangladesh and can be expected to apply to Hyderabad in a similar fashion. Dehydration and heat-related illnesses (Koppe et al., 2004), such as cardiorespiratory diseases, increase with high temperatures (Kovats and Hajat, 2008). These illnesses often lead to an increase in short-term mortality particular during heat waves (Mitra et al., 2003), which is a problem already in recent years. For example in 2002, a heatwave has killed more than 1,000 people in Andhra Pradesh, mostly laborers in smaller urban settlements and people working under the open sky (heatisonline, 2002). Only one year later, the Government of Andhra Pradesh (2004) announced in an official statement that the heat waves in 2003 caused the death of more than 3,000 people. Although hot summers are common in Hyderabad, news of the last years tells about more and longer heat waves and people’s suffering. “The temperatures are peaking much to the discomfort of the general public” and the “temperature shoots up six to seven 36 degrees above normal [in Andhra Pradesh]” was news in 2009 (The Hindu 30 Jan and 26 Feb 2009). A vast problem is indeed the increased health risk for daily wage earners, such as laborers and rickshaw drivers (Kovats and Hajat, 2008), and other people that work under the open sky. Although limited in comparison to, e.g. rural areas, this also relates to urban farmers and people helping on the field in urban environments. These groups are especially vulnerable, as they are not able to react accordingly. Heat-wave alerts and official calls to stay inside or in the shadow can often not be respected, as these people rely on their daily wage (The Hindu, 22 April 2009). People in slums are affected badly also as they have no air conditioners and coolers (AFDC interviewee, 2009). Most of the slums are situated in the suburban areas where temperatures are generally a bit lower (Bitan, 2003), but still a substantial number of people live in the numerous small informal settlements in the inner city. Daily wage earners cannot afford to be far away from their place of work and long commuting. With an increase in temperatures in the future, heat related problems are very likely to increase. On the other hand might a general rise in temperatures and more frequent heat waves result in an increase of cooling. Dr. Sheikh from the Tarnaka Residence Welfare Association in Hyderabad points out that colds and other respiratory diseases have already become a typical middle class problem during summer due to overcooled office buildings. The second direct impact, exposure to flooding, can result in serious injuries. Drowning is a commonly reported consequence (Mitra et al., 2003), although it cannot be stated with certainty whether an inability in swimming or the nescience of proper behaviour has a stronger explanation power. Already at present conditions, strong rain results in frequent flooding of low-lying areas of the city. In 12 of the 20 strongest precipitation events in Hyderabad (upper most 3% in the years between 2000 and 2008; 55mm rain and more) the news reported about inundation of houses and roads. In 9 of these events lives were claimed, either by drowning or by lightening stroke (The Hindu). Whereas dramatic injuries can cause deaths directly, also damages to the public health infrastructure, such as hospitals and other health care centres, and the disturbance of ambulance services can become a health risk during flooding. Health care itself might deteriorate when personal is missing, as do disease control measures (DEFRA, 2005). With a potential increase in serious precipitation events, related problems might increase as well. Flooding can also lead to a contamination of water with chemicals, heavy metals or other hazardous substances that were either already present in the environment or result from damages to storage facilities (Young et al., 2004). In 37 Andhra Pradesh, the contamination of water sources with bacteria is a consequence of poor sanitation associated with a lack of toilets, inadequate drainage and poorly designed septic tanks. Exposure levels tend to be highest during the initial monsoon flush, especially in flooded areas (World Bank, 2001). A problem is also the intermittence of water supply, which accelerates bacterial cultivation and boosts the contamination of the supply infrastructure. Another problem of intermittent supply is the resulting underpressure in pipes as soon as the water keeps off. Then, water from outside the pipes is soaked in through leaks carrying contaminants and other waste. The situation is particularly severe in areas of Hyderabad where sewage flows in open ditches close to water distribution pipes (Vairavamoorthy, 2008) and where people live in industrial areas close to factories (Kovats and Akthar, 2008). Although there is no particular data available for Hyderabad, a study conducted by NEERI states that 27 to 76 per cent of drinking water samples are tested positive for faecal coliforms under intermittent supply (NEERI, 1994). Next to the problem with drainage infrastructure, the survival of bacterial pathogens is also related to temperature (Kovats and Akhtar, 2008). The consumption of contaminated water can result in diarrheal diseases, cholera and intoxication (DEFRA, 2005) as studies from other cities in India reveal after flooding and intermittent water supply (Mondal et al., 2001). After the Mumbai flood in 2005, the leptospirosis cases, a bacterial disease, increased by a factor of eight (Maskey et al., 2006). The same was reported for the floods in 2000 and 2001, this time mainly affecting children in slums (Karande et al., 2002). A three-day incessant rain event in Hyderabad in 2006 has put health officials on an alert for a possible outbreak of water-borne diseases (The Hindu, 6 Aug 2006). The authorities worried about the risk of water contamination and an outbreak of large-scale health problems. As a consequence, they started a survey in particularly vulnerable areas, tested people for their health conditions and eventually distributed Chloroquine, Paracetamol and others in different localities of the city. In 1996, an intermitted water supply was also suspected to have caused a paratyphoid fever outbreak in Delhi (Yepes et al., 2000). As waterborne diseases are already one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality in developing countries as a whole (WHO S-E Asia, 2005), problems are likely to deteriorate with more frequent flooding under future climate change. An insecure freshwater supply can become a serious problem in mainly two ways, the decreased water availability in itself and the related contamination discussed above. One important problem is, e.g. the excessive drawdown of well water and the potential mixing with industrial waste water, which in turn leads to contaminated well water. The impact of climate change on the availability of water is seen to be one of the most important impacts for the health of 38 populations (Confalonieri et al., 2007). Estimations by Singh (2000) imply that, allowing for population growth, half of India’s urban population will be living with acute water shortages by the year 2050. Staff members of ICRISAT (group member of PhD Suhas P. Wani) noted the same for Hyderabad, saying that health conditions are highly dependent on water quality. According to news reports the freshwater supply is already extremely irregular during normal, nonmonsoon time in several districts in Hyderabad (The Hindu, 5 Feb09). Thus, adding further irregularities in water availability in a future climate, this would entail serious problems for the city. Climate change is expected to put more stress on the water supply situation (Revi, 2008). Air pollution can become a further increasing health problem in response to climate change, because a proportion of the formation of certain air pollutants depends on temperature and humidity (Satterthwaite et al., 2007). The recent increase in new industries and motor vehicles brings along a massive degradation of the air quality in Indian cities (Agarwal et al., 1999). With 2.2 Mio vehicles in Hyderabad and 600 vehicles more each day, the situation in Hyderabad is similar. 60% of all air pollution is resulting from individual vehicles (discussion with APPCB). Next to the increase in vehicle numbers, particularly the ageing of public transport means and freight vehicles is a major health problem, as they are emitting high levels of particulate matter (The Hindu, 30 Jan 2009); advances in efficiency are not followed. In the near future and under mean growth estimates in individual traffic air pollution problems will rise unless drastic measures are taken. Due to the geographic setting of Hyderabad the impact of air pollution is lesser in summer and after the monsoon, whereas the impact in winter is higher, mainly due to a temperature inversion (APPCB, 2009). More frequent precipitation events would slightly lessen the problems with air quality in relative terms; particulate matter can be washed out. As mentioned in the beginning of this chapter, many of the impacts named are interrelated. Often, the combination of different climate variables (and sometimes particular social conditions), not a single variable alone, is responsible for the spread of diseases and their vectors. With respect to, e.g., Malaria, Dengue and Chikungunya, which are very climate sensitive (Dhiman, 2008), optimal climatic conditions of temperature, humidity and breeding places of water (Gigers, 1999) are necessary to accelerate the rate of the breeding cycle of the Anopheles (Malaria) and Aedes aegypti/albopictus (both Dengue, Chikungunya) mosquito. Intermittent rainfalls, such as in June and July in Hyderabad, provide perfect breeding grounds in stagnant urban water like wells, cistern, sumps, car tires, bottles and cans (The Hindu, 4 July 2004). Official government clinics’ state a decrease in malaria cases in Hyderabad in recent 39 years. In 2005, 367 cases were reported much in contrast to the 877 cases in 2000. In 2007 official figures decreased further and witnessed 253 cases, whereas in 2008 incidences rose again slightly to 275 cases (Times of India, 26 Dec 2008). We have to assume that these numbers comprise only a small fraction of the actual incidences, but other figures are unachievable (Prasad and Ramachandraiah, 2007). The small increase in the last two years is explained with long-time gaps of rainfall, long enough to give adequate breeding time to the mosquitoes in stagnant water (MCH health and sanitation additional commissioner D. Jaganadha Rao in Times of India, 2002). During those months with long time intervals between rainfalls, the Hyderabad municipality is running anti-larval operations in conducting house-to-house spraying of insecticides and larvicides (The Hindu, 4 July 2004). Bhattacharya et al. (2006) find a positive correlation of October rainfall in Andhra Pradesh with malaria incidences in the following year, whereas other sources, such as the Times of India (29 Jan 2009), report a constant prevalence of mosquitoes year round, at least for some parts of the city, e.g. Old Safilguda, where open drainage systems exist. The total annual rainfall does not seem to have an influence; flooding and drought seem to be more influential (Bhattacharya et al., 2006). Given that Indian cities have become major reservoirs of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, it can be expected that the morbidity risk will increase in the future (Bhattacharya et al., 2006). Dhiman et al. (2008) give an in-depth analysis of potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of malaria in India and conclude that, in general, malaria is expected to spread and conquer new areas. Models indicate that the number of people at risk of malaria infection in developing countries as a whole will increase by 5-15%, depending on the model and climate change scenario (Martens et al., 1995). A warming of the climate may also increase the risk of dengue outbreaks, particularly in those cities and areas where a present limiting factor is exceeded (Kovats and Hajat, 2008). Dengue cases have reached alarming levels in Hyderabad. As many as 90 cases were reported in 2008; in 2007 57 cases were reported. This accounts for 30% of the total dengue cases (307) in the state of Andhra Pradesh and occurred only in this city. Interestingly, while the trend of Dengue is going down in the state as a whole, it is going up in the city (Times of India, 26 Dec 2008). 2.4.5 Impact of climate change on food production in Hyderabad We have further identified the following key impacts of climate change on food security: 40 Direct: • Food stock destroyed • Crops destroyed Indirect • Malnutrition, hunger • Less irrigation water • Crop diseases The rather poor data availability makes it particularly difficult to analyze the potential impacts of climate change on in the field of food security, e.g. as compared to the health sector. A direct impact of flooding events on food security represents the destruction of the food stock itself, e.g. through water but also through drought. Satterthwaite et al. (2007) note that for India’s economy and people, an increase in the intensity, frequency and geographical coverage of drought are the most serious climate-change related risks. Destroyed food crops have short- and longterm consequences. The former particularly affect small peri-urban, but also urban farmers that directly rely on their food for reasons of subsistence or on their income from selling the crops (Buechler and Devi, 2003). For larger, statewide flooding, with large-scale devastation of crops, the effect on food security can be even more severe and affect the whole population. Damages to crops in 2000 and 2005 were topic in the news. In 2000 the crop loss was 1.770.000 ha, as stated by the Chief Minister, Mr N. Chandrababu Naidu (The Hindu, 26 Aug 2000). Also the interruption of the supply chain due to infrastructural damages, e.g. caused by inundations, can cause immediate food and drinking water shortage in the city. This is particularly pronounced for daily-wage earners; they have serious problems during and after heavy rain events when normal life and work is disrupted. “For people like us no work means no food” says V. Jangaiah, a migrant laborer (The Hindu, 8 Nov 2008). Alarming are the longer term impacts on malnutrition and hunger. Frequent in slum quarters nowadays, they are expected to intensify with climate change and its impacts in the future. Gahukar (2009) assumes that the steadily increasing number of people, particularly undernourished people, could bring the situation to a collapse; food might be even less available in the future. The potential changes in agricultural production in Asia, including India, were analysed and projected by the IPCC (2001). They found that the time of the 41 cropping season as well as the growing period is affected by variability of temperature and precipitation. Mendelsohn (2000) has calculated an agricultural loss of $86 billion in India under a future warming of 2°C in global mean temperature (UIUC11 climate model, allowing for carbon fertilization). And the FAO has estimated that India will lose up to 125 million tons of cereals by 2020 (Gahukar, 2009). As a secondary effect, this would increase global food and cereal prices enormously and will again particularly hurt the urban poor (Satterthwaite et al., 2007). Parry et al. (2004) calculated an increase in cereal prices until 2080 of up to three-fold (different scenario calculations). Hyderabad’s ability to provide sufficient food to its inhabitants partly depends on the food availability in the surrounding rural areas of Andhra Pradesh (Smith et al., 2007). Those areas in Andhra Pradesh that are already drought-prone will become especially vulnerable in the years to come (Lal, 2009) and the need for irrigation increases. For example, depleting water levels of the Godavari in combination with the failure of irrigation authorities to augment the water supply has recently upset the farmers. They are worried that newly planted crops fall dry if the water supply stops for more than a week (Times of India, 23 Jan 09). Ch.V. Rao of the Energy Conservation Commission sets a note of caution to the current cultivation practices when he remarks in an interview that the production of 1 kg of rice needs 2000 litres of water. Without irrigation, new water harvesting systems or alternatives to, e.g., groundnuts and other crops, dry land farmers in Andhra Pradesh are highly vulnerable to climate change (Lal, 2009). Another secondary effect is the potential increase in crop diseases, which is likely when the plants level of heat-tolerance is exceeded. The IPCC (2001) notes that a “damage from diseases may be more serious because heat-stress conditions will weaken the disease-resistance of host-plants and provide pathogenic bacteria with more favorable growth conditions”. As an answer, new seeds and varieties need to be developed to suit the future weather conditions, says environmental scientist R. Pachauri in a public lecture in Hyderabad (The Hindu, 3 Feb 2009). Figure 2-15 summarizes the impacts of climate change on health and food production. 42 relevant climate dependent physical variables global radiation balance relevant climate variables emissions global aerosol emissions global atmospheric & oceanic circulation global greenhouse gas emissions extreme rainfall events total monsoon rainfall heat waves urban heat island effect drainage soilwater content river regulation Hyderabad aerosol emissions Hyderabad greenhouse gas emissions Direct exposure effect ● Contamination of drinking water w/ bacteria/industrial waste ● Crops destroyed ● Food stock destroyed ● Contamination of irrigation water ● Public health infrastructure damaged ● flooding freshwater supply from reservoirs exposure Direct exposure ● Occupational health effect ● HEALTH effects ● Diseases related to water contamination (diarrhoea, cholera, respiratory infection) ● Increase of vector-borne diseases (Malaria, Dengue, Chikungunya) ● Long-term health problem due to exposure to chemical/microbiological/heavy metal load in water/food ● Health security (infrastructure damaged) ● Injuries/drowning ● Heat shock/ short-term mortality increase ● Well-being disturbed during heat averaged seasonal temperature groundwater refill Insecure freshwater supply ● Rainfed agriculture: aridity, crop diseases ● ● Wells contaminated (groundwater draw-down) ● Heat-tolerance of crop varieties exceeded ● Increased cooling demand ● Favourable conditions for disease vectors (breeding, transmission window) . FOOD security Shorter growing season Less availability of food ● Higher prices ● Insecure drinking water ● Decreased food quality ● ● Figure 2-15: Climate impacts, health and food production. Source: own work 43 2.4.6 Discussion, limitation and further research needs There are shortcomings with respect to some of the methods of analysis used and their ability to profoundly contribute to the study. Limitations have mainly been encountered with the online analysis of the newspaper The Hindu and the interviews. The number of news for Hyderabad is remarkably smaller in the earlier issues of The Hindu archive. Thus, it is assumed that only a part of the print version was made available to online readers at that time. A special section for the city is only available from 7 Jan 2004 onwards, before that date a Southern States section included news on Hyderabad. Therefore, the time period of news easily accessible for analysis was limited. News can be used as a source of information on facts as well as a source of knowledge about how topics are discussed. Particularly for the former issue the newspaper analysis is important. With it, we want to find out what the very impacts of climatic events in Hyderabad are. News in an archive reflects the particular situation on and shortly after the day of a specific event. In contrast, statements made by interviewees about a past event are always a recall of memories and influenced by personal feelings and oblivion. However, it has to be kept in mind that news often represent political opinions and might be biased or hold neglects. The Indian press is generally considered to be free and pluralist, but it is clearly taking up the principles of a market-driven economy in recent days, which results in lower journalistic standard (Sonwalkar, 2002). News has therefore to be taken with caution. Another shortcoming of the news analysis is the limitation to English language newspapers, which are written for and read by a small and (potentially) nonrepresentative part of the population, the middle and upper class households. The news of one Indian newspaper published in English is still addressing a narrow part of readership and a specific range of social classes. It can therefore only reflect a limited prospect. Anyhow, English newspapers had already the highest daily-to-people ratio in 1987 (Jeffrey, 1987) and “reflect the opinions of the most powerful segments of the Indian population: the political, intellectual and business elite” (Haque and Narag, 1983). Attempts are made to get newspaper articles translated from Hindi or the local Urdu language (joint work with WP2.1). After having gained a comprehensive picture of the impacts of rain, we also want to include news after heat events, and use other sources of information (e.g. in situ, by stakeholders and interviewees) to still deepen our knowledge to 44 the impacts of climate on transport, built infrastructures, energy, health, food security and water. Other shortcomings relate to the interviews with local stakeholders, although they significantly enhanced our understanding of the situation in Hyderabad obtained from newspaper analysis. Due to time and organisational constraints, only 14 stakeholder interviews were conducted. Although the best effort has been made to capture the broadest spectre of interests, the selection of the interviewees cannot be considered as representative and further work will be needed to fill the gaps, particularly in obtaining expert opinion from local practitioners. A significant limitation of the stakeholder interview method in assessing climate change impacts in Hyderabad is the difference in approaches to the definition of impacts between the interviewers and stakeholders as well as among stakeholders themselves. The local actors find it sometimes difficult to place the impacts of climate change into a broader framework of sustainable urban development, while predominantly focusing on rather localised events such as droughts and floods, without clearly distinguishing between climate-caused impacts or those produced by infrastructure failures. Further interviews will take this observation into account, particularly by amending the questionnaire design and stakeholder selection. As one of the next project steps we expect to enhance our understanding of climate change impacts in Hyderabad through identification of impact paths for various social groups and classes. While one may assume that no part of the population will be excluded from the impacts, the magnitude and specific character will be very different for, e.g., slum dwellers and IT professionals. This will be thoroughly investigated. Last but not least, we want to note that the climate change components and its impacts on Hyderabad are not isolated from each other but should be assessed together and as an integrated and complex mechanism. Using already identified impacts within various sectors, further work will focus on the development of interconnections and cause-effect relationships between the sectors and their components. The obtained knowledge will then be used to build quantitative and qualitative components of a climate change impact model for Hyderabad and to ultimately design a viable Sustainable Development Framework for this vibrant and challenging megacity. 45 2.5 Summary to the impacts and statistical reprocessing of climate change news As first observation we note that the total number of news after a certain rain event does not highly correlated with rain intensity (Appendix III), although a slight trend exists. However, there was one outlier that received a lot of news, although, according to the weather records, this event was not the highest. Furthermore, the total number of online news to a certain precipitation event is increasing over time, which means that also the news with interest to our survey increase over time. Whether this is a trend in reporting about events or a trend in the severity of the event itself can, for the moment, not be stated with certainty. As mentioned in the methods section, 20 precipitation events and their according news in Hyderabad were analyzed in total (Appendix III). The major topic, apart from generally talking about the weather and the rain, is the traffic and the problems that arise with its disturbance. In 15 out of the 20 events problems with the traffic flow in the city are mentioned in the news. In 12 events the inundation of houses and roads, often in low-lying areas, are noted. In 11 events, the state of reservoirs and their inflow was discussed. In about half of the events, drains and problems with them is a topic. Also that lives had been claimed and serious injuries have happened as well as the fact that emergency cells have been started to operate and control rooms have been opened is noted likewise. The latter often include a list with telephone numbers. Power failure, destroyed roads and damaged or collapsed houses have been reported in one third of the events. In 7 events the first reaction of the news to the rain was positive. Further, the disturbance of normal life, evacuations and relief camps as well as relief measures, problems with the water supply, disturbance of railway connections or tracks and plans about modernization measures (mainly of water use) are a topic in a quarter of the events. Looking at the health sector, also disease prevention and a higher alert was discussed during 5 events. In two of these cases chlorination of water was mentioned. A lack of preparedness or inadequate crisis management and coordination was criticized less frequent. The fact that impacts on health and food are less discussed than problems with infrastructure brings us back to the question whom the news are written for. Slum dwellers that suffer from these problems will not read the news. The reader is more interested in his or her problems, which, for example, are traffic problems. There is the assumption that topics are discussed differently in the local newspaper and the local language. A further analysis of the news is planned and will entail a deeper insight into the subject matter. Table 2-5 summarises the information given in former chapters along the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework, which was developed by EEA, UNEP and FOEN and adapted to our approach. 46 Table 2-5: Summary to the impacts of climate change on the urban system in Hyderabad Driver Pressure State Impact Response Extreme Drainage Flooding Contamination of water Residential and public rainfall infrastructure development resources with bacteria/ River regulation events industrial waste Changes in land use Destruction of crops and food stocks policies Traffic route changes Infrastructure damage Traffic interruption Injuries / drowning Heat waves Urban heat island effect Exposure to high temperatures Increased heat stress and mortality Increased water demand Increased energy demand Increased cooling demand for cooling, water Spreading of diseases through extraction and transportation A/C Drop in agricultural production Drop in energy generation Reduced groundwater recharge Reduced drinking water availability 47 Infrastructure damage Reduced transport efficiency Total monsoon rainfall Runoff Freshwater Soil water content supply from reservoirs Groundwater refill Insecure freshwater supply Need for long distance water transport Reduced groundwater recharge Development of alternative water supply routes (long distance water transport, development of additional infrastructure) Variability in agricultural production Reduced drinking water availability Intermittent water supply Averaged seasonal temperature Soil water content Groundwater refill Favourable conditions for disease vectors and food poisoning Distribution of medicines Increased energy demand for cooling and water extraction Increased cooling demand for public buildings and transport Development of additional Reduced water availability for water supply infrastructure drinking and irrigation Changes in land use purposes patterns Contamination of wells 48 Drop in energy generation Drop in agricultural production Source: own work 49 50 2.6 List of References 3iNetwork (Infrastructure Development Finance Company; Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad; Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur) (2006): India Infrastructure Report 2006 – Urban Infrastructure, Oxford University Press, New Delhi, http://www.iitk.ac.in/3inetwork/html/reports/IIR2006/iir2006.html, Access: 10.05.2009. 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Mann, eds, Urbanisation and Governance in India, Delhi, pp.127–50 57 Table of Contents Analysis and Action for Sustainable Development of Hyderabad .............. 2 1 Outline, Aims of the task, Deliverable1 PIK: WP1 ....................................... 4 2 Introduction .................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Climate Change in India .......................................................................... 4 2.2 Introduction to Hyderabad and its urban subsystems.............................. 8 2.2.1 Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh/ India) ................................................. 8 2.2.2 State of the transport sector in Hyderabad: supply and demand....... 9 2.2.3 State of the water sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand, (in)security 12 2.2.4 State of the energy sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand, (in)security .................................................................................................... 14 2.2.5 State of the health sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand, (in)security .................................................................................................... 15 2.2.6 State of the food sector in Hyderabad: supply, demand, (in)security 17 2.3 Methods ................................................................................................. 20 2.3.1 Literature ......................................................................................... 21 2.3.2 Indian News..................................................................................... 21 2.3.3 Interviews ........................................................................................ 22 2.4 Results ................................................................................................... 22 2.4.1 Impacts of climate change on the transport sector in Hyderabad ... 23 2.4.2 Impact of climate change on the energy sector in Hyderabad ........ 28 2.4.3 Impact of climate change on water, energy and industries in Hyderabad..................................................................................................... 31 2.4.4 Impact of climate change on the health sector in Hyderabad ......... 35 2.4.5 Impact of climate change on food production in Hyderabad .......... 40 2.4.6 Discussion, limitation and further research needs .......................... 44 2.5 Summary to the impacts and statistical reprocessing of climate change news 46 2.6 List of References .................................................................................. 50 Table of Contents ................................................................................................ 57 2.7 List of Abbreviations ............................................................................. 58 2.8 List of Tables ......................................................................................... 59 2.9 List of Figures ........................................................................................ 60 2.10 List of Appendices .......................................................................... 61 1 Appendix I .................................................................................................... 62 2 Appendix II ................................................................................................... 64 3 Appendix III ................................................................................................. 66 58 2.7 List of Abbreviations AC AFDC AFPRO APGENCO APPCB APSRTC BSL CATHY CCC ESCI CDIAC CESS CNG DEFRA EEA FAO FOEN GHG GHMC HMWSSB HUA HUDA ICRISAT MCH MMTS NEERI NERI PM UNEP WHO Air conditioning Addagutta Founder’s & Development Committee, Hyderabad Action for Food Production, India Andhra Pradesh Power Generation Corporation Limited Andhra Pradesh Pollution Control Board Andhra Pradesh State Road Transport Corporation below sea level Climate Assessment Tool for Hyderabad Climate Change Centre, Engineering staff College of India Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center Center for Economic and Social Studies, India Compressed Natural Gas Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK European Environment Agency Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (German: BAFU) Greenhouse Gas Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation Hyderabad Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board Hyderabad Urban Agglomeration Hyderabad Urban Development Authority International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics Municipal Corporation for Hyderabad Multi-Modal Transport System National Environmental Engineering Research Institute, India National Environment Research Institute, Denmark Prime Minister United Nations Environment Programme World Health Organization 59 2.8 List of Tables Table 2-1: External water supply sources for Hyderabad ................................... 12 Table 2-2: Renewable energy potential and achievements in India ................... 15 Table 2-3: Basic infrastructure in Slums ............................................................. 17 Table 2-4: Per capita consumption expenditure in urban areas .......................... 18 Table 2-5: Summary to the impacts of climate change on the urban system in Hyderabad ........................................................................................................... 47 60 2.9 List of Figures Figure 2-1: Carbon Emissions in USA, EU, China and India, 2005 and 2030..... 5 Figure 2-2: Total CO2 Emissions by country, in 2000 ......................................... 6 Figure 2-3: Geographical distribution of vulnerability in 2050 with and without mitigation along an SRES A2 emissions scenario with a climate sensitivity of 5.5°C; vulnerability with a static representation of current adaptive capacity ..... 6 Figure 2-4: Estimated death attributed to climate change in the year 2000 compared to baseline climate 1961-1990, by subregion ....................................... 7 Figure 2-5: Sale of cars and two-wheelers, 1993-2001 (in thousand) .................. 9 Figure 2-6: Percentage Growth in Population and Vehicles (1981-2001) in selected metro cities ............................................................................................ 10 Figure 2-7: Share of two-wheelers in total registered vehicles, 31 March 2003 10 Figure 2-8: Projected mode share of vehicular trips per day .............................. 11 Figure 2-9: Food consumption pattern in the peri-urban Uppal area.................. 19 Figure 2-10: Proportion of crops grown in Hyderabad urban area ..................... 19 Figure 2-11: Integrated Assessment framework for the local and regional level20 Figure 2-12: Daily precipitation records in Begumpet/Hyderabad..................... 22 Figure 2-13: Climate Impacts on transport and infrastructures. ......................... 27 Figure 2-14: Climate impact on water, energy, industry. ................................... 35 Figure 2-15: Climate impacts, health and food production. ............................... 43 61 2.10 List of Appendices Analysis and Action for Sustainable Development of Hyderabad .............. 2 1 Appendix I .................................................................................................... 62 2 Appendix II ................................................................................................... 64 3 Appendix III ................................................................................................. 66 62 1 Appendix I Interview Guideline Organizational background: Could you please give us a short overview of the work your organization is doing (major tasks, aims and objectives, institutional criteria, partners, for whom you work)? Please tell us, which (regulatory-) instruments you have at hand undertaking your work, e.g. like information campaigns, and/or education? Introduction of PIK (Interviewer) and short description of the project Introduction to the subject climate change: What do you know about climate change? What do you think are the major causes of climate change (anthropogenic)? On which sources/media do you base your knowledge with respect to climate change? If you think climate change is man made, who are the main contributors? Impacts What are the most important impacts and consequences for Hyderabad, e.g. with respect to the following sectoral aspects: Transport systems, Water management and supply, Health, Electricity generation and supply, Food supply, settlements and built urban environment? Why? Where/which areas in the city will be most affected/most vulnerable. Who is most affected/most vulnerable (the middle (8.000 bis 38.000 Rs) and upper class (38.000 Rs), the poor (> 8.000 Rs)? Why? How about your organization? Will it be affected, too? If yes, why and how? Lifestyle: Are there trends and lifestyles in the city that are particularly alarming with respect to the causes of climate change? If yes, please explain why and how? Reduction of the magnitude of climate change (mitigation)? What could be done? Who is responsible to act? How about your organization? What is your organization currently doing? What could your organization do? Are there any future plans from side of your organization to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide and limit climate change? (material available?) How do you think about current measures and strategies for mitigation? Do you think they are sufficient? What problems and obstacles appear implementing mitigation measures (conflicting interests, administrative problems, lack of 63 funds, knowledge, information, competence)? What has to be done to avoid such problems and obstacles? Adaptation to the impacts of climate change: What could be done? Who is responsible to act? How about your organization? What is your organization currently doing? What could your organization do? Are there future plans from side of your organization to conduct projects or measures of adaptation? (material available?) How do you think about current measures and strategies for adaptation? Do you think they are sufficient? What problems and obstacles appear with respect to measures and strategies to adapt to the impacts of climate change (conflicting interests, administrative problems, lack of funds, knowledge, information, competence)? What has to be done to avoid such problems and obstacles? Link between adaptation and mitigation Have you ever heard of the „Hyderabad City Development Plan“ and what do you think about it. Do you think it is an adequate answer to the problems of the city especially with respect to mitigation and adaptation? Why? What do you think about the relation between adaptation and mitigation? Which approach is more important for the city of Hyderabad? [For the interviewees: It should follow a short reflection on the interview afterwards to check possible inconsistencies and to evaluate the quality of the interview. For instance – it should be discussed shortly, whether the interviewee has understood the problem of the discussion, and whether he gave contradictory explanations?] 64 2 Appendix II Interviewee list 27.01.09 Where: Hyderabad/at Mr C.V. Rao’s home Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Christian Kimmich (RESS), Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK), Kai Rommel (RESS) Meeting with: Er. Ch. Venkateswara Rao (Energy Conservation Mission, The Institutions of Engineers), Capt. J. Rama Rao (Energy Conservation Mission, The Institutions of Engineers) 29.01.09 Where: Hyderabad/STP Amberpet Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK) Meeting with: Mr. B. Mukesh (General manager, Sewage Treatment Plant (STP) Amberpet/Hyderabad) Where: Hyderabad/Greenpeace Office, Panjagutta Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK) Meeting with: Ms. Poonam Pandit (Greenpeace) 30.01.09 Where: Hyderabad/The Hindu offices Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Christian Kimmich (RESS), Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK) Meeting with: Mr. V. Venkateshwarlu (Editor of the Environment-‘section’ in the newspaper “The Hindu”, Dy. Chief of Bureau) Where: Hyderabad/Café Minerva Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Christian Kimmich (RESS), Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK) Meeting with: Raghavendra & Rajitha (Hyderabad Unplug, not registered = not yet an NGO) 31.01.09 Where: Hyderabad/Tarnaka Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Georg Kern (PTV), Christian Kimmich (RESS), Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK), Tanja Schäfer (PTV) Meeting with: Mr. Dr. Rao Chelikani (Head of Residential Welfare Association (RWA) Tarnaka) and other members of RWA 65 02.02.09 Where: Hyderabad/ESCI Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK) Meeting with: Dr. Shalini Sharma, Convener – Center for Climate Change, Engineering Staff College of India (ESCI) 03.02.09 Where: Hyderabad/SpringsInn Who: Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK) Meeting with: Dr. Sherifuddin Sheriff Sheikh (General Doctor, Tarnaka) Where: Hyderabad/Chacha Nehru Park, Banjara Hills Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK), Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Diana Reckien (PIK), Christian Kimmich (RESS) Meeting with: Mr. Vikram Aditya (Hyderabad Climate Alliance) 04.02.09 Where: Hyderabad/SpringsInn Who: Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Ulrike Anders (PIK) Meeting with: Mrs. Kanthimathi Kannan (The Right to Walk Foundation) Where: Hyderabad/ Eenadu newspaper Who: Ulrike Anders (PIK) Meeting with: Mr. N. Rahul Kumar (Associate Editor at the Eenadu daily newspaper) Where: Hyderabad/Office of Forum for a better Hyderabad within the premises of Oxford Grammar School, Himayat Nagar Who: Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Christian Kimmich (RESS) Meeting with: Mr. Vedakumar (Forum for a better Hyderabad) 05.02.09 Where: Hyderabad/Addagutta at the office of the Addagutta Founder’s & Development Committee Who: Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Ulrike Anders (PIK) Meeting with: Mr. Krem Kumar G. Kali (Owner of Kali Builders and Developers) Where: Hyderabad/Addagutta at the office of the Addagutta Founder’s & Development Committee Who: Lutz Meyer-Ohlendorf (PIK), Ulrike Anders (PIK) Meeting with: Mr. S. Yadgiri (Addagutta Founder’s & Development Committee) 66 3 Appendix III News list date during monsoon (June-Sept) no news mm weather reservoirs (inflow, Hussainsaga r) drains inundation (houses/ roads) traffic 08.08.08 110 38 y x x 26.07.06 47+111 9 y x x x x injuries / lifes claimed x x x 10.06.01 115 2 y x 23.08.00 73+214 15 y x x 09.09.07 58+51 3 y 24.08.07 68 2 y 15.09.06 86 5 y 04.08.06 96 14 y x x x x x x 28.10.05 78 10 n x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 15.07.05 62 11 y x x x x x x 08.07.05 61+82 13 y x x x x x x 04.09.04 83 2 y x x x x x 01.07.04 55 2 y x x x 20.10.03 59+63 2 y 05.07.03 67 1 y x x 09.08.01 86 1 y 03.06.01 70 0 y 30.06.00 62 3 y x x x 11.06.00 76 2 y x x x x x x 25.02.00 76 0 n 15 15 12 11 10 9 houses power failure damaged/ / power use collapsed roads destroyed date 08.08.08 x 26.07.06 x x x normal life (shopping, election) positive reaction x x moderisation / water water supply use plans evacua-tion / relief camp railway x x x x 10.06.01 23.08.00 x x 09.09.07 x x 04.08.06 x x 28.10.05 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 24.08.07 15.09.06 x 15.07.05 08.07.05 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 04.09.04 x x 01.07.04 20.10.03 x 05.07.03 09.08.01 x x x 03.06.01 30.06.00 x x x 11.06.00 25.02.00 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 67 lack of preparedness /bad overall situation (of roads) date crisis management coordination inade-quate 08.08.08 x 26.07.06 x disease alerted / preventing disease visit by politicians (or agricul-ture / remember not) crop damage old event x x x x x x chlorina-tion of water /chlorine tablet distribution rumours politi-cising flood x x 10.06.01 23.08.00 x 09.09.07 x x x x x x 24.08.07 15.09.06 04.08.06 x x 28.10.05 x x 15.07.05 x x x 08.07.05 x x x x 4 3 3 x 04.09.04 01.07.04 20.10.03 05.07.03 09.08.01 03.06.01 30.06.00 11.06.00 25.02.00 4 prepare for evacuation date 4 compare to Mumbai 08.08.08 4 ground-water recharge lake flooded religion fly swarms 3 national news 2 chemical explosion 2 state aid x 26.07.06 x 10.06.01 x x 23.08.00 x x x 1 1 1 09.09.07 24.08.07 15.09.06 x 04.08.06 x 28.10.05 15.07.05 08.07.05 x x 1 1 04.09.04 01.07.04 20.10.03 05.07.03 09.08.01 03.06.01 30.06.00 11.06.00 25.02.00 2 2 1 1 68 daily wage telecommuni new housing earners in cation subsidy trouble date 08.08.08 benefit to flooding hydro-power prevented x x x 1 1 1 26.07.06 10.06.01 23.08.00 x x 1 1 09.09.07 24.08.07 15.09.06 04.08.06 28.10.05 15.07.05 08.07.05 04.09.04 01.07.04 20.10.03 05.07.03 09.08.01 03.06.01 30.06.00 11.06.00 25.02.00