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The essence of data in climate change response. Parliamentary Colloquium: Unpacking The COP21 Paris Agreement Implications for the Nation OLD ASSEMBLY CHAMBER: PARLIAMENT 28 October 2016 Mr. Mnikeli Ndabambi South African Weather Service www.weathersa.co.za 1 Content Introduction Purpose Mandate Key Infrastructure Climate change challenges SAWS strategic context SAWS Climate change and Response initiatives Forecasting Services Products and Services Research and Development Development Capacity and Capability Enabling Climate Change response Conclusion 2 PURPOSE To brief the members on:- Data availability. Data usage and value add. Share products derived from weather and climatological data in response to Climate Variability and Change 3 SAWS MANDATE Established as an AGENCY on 15 June 2001 Two distinct Services: Public Good Commercial Funded by Government Grant User-pays principle applies Forecasts & Warnings Tailor made products & services CREATING A WEATHER-SMART NATION VISION “A weather-SMART nation.” SAWS wants to achieve an end-state where citizens, communities and business sectors are weather resilient because they are able to use the information, products and services provided by SAWS optimally. S – Safe M – More informed A – Alert R – Resilient/Ready T – Timeous SAWS PRODUCTS & SERVICES Training Centre Forecasting Research & Develop Satellite Centre of Excellence Aviation services Observation Observation network research Marine services Now & short-term forecasting Climate Services National climate data bank Technical Services Air Quality Met Authority SA Air Quality Info System ICAO Manufacturing compliance & (Oversight) assembling Climate Change General forecasting Global Long-term Climate Atmospheric forecasting information Watch & outlooks SADC specialized Met centre Climate services (NFCS) New product development OBSERVATIONS 1277 Rainfall stations 214 Automatic weather stations 141 Automatic rainfall stations 25 Climate stations 24 Lightning sensors 14 Radars 10 Upper air stations 20 Weather Offices SAWS STRATEGIC CONTEXT South African Weather Services Value Chain – Enabling climate change response Networks Data Collection Strategy Science Processing & Data Management Content Value Add Devices Dissemination • Develop Products and services enabling Government, sectors, industries, communities…… • Develop and facilitate Implementation of National Framework for Climate Services in partnership with various stakeholders • Socio-economic benefits study Capacity Development • • Infrastructure upgrade, expansion and optimisation Improved service delivery to the agricultural sector – adoption of new products and applications Skills Development • National Education Plan 8 DATA AVAILABLITY AND VALUE ADD • SAWS has 154 years historical data (National Climate Data Bank)* • Climatic means (averages) including: – daily, – monthly and – annuals have been established and can be made available if a user needs to compare current values with the long term means • Using the long series of rainfall data, mean dperiods of – onset and – cessation of the rain seasons have been established and the dates of earliest onset and cessations established. i.e. with appropriate standard deviations e.g expect late rainfall onsets with short duration, 9 VALUE ADD-CONTINUES • SAWS is able to give the farmer (user), the risks associated with dry/wet spells of given lengths if he plants early, at time of onset and late onset • This information is of use to plan whether to intercrop. • Whereas most of SAWS’ forecasts indicate terminologies such as – “above Normal, – Below Normal and – Normal” with assistance of the Agrometeorological services, the same may be quantified for use in yield estimation and water management. • SAWS has application which use meteorological and climatological data to monitor crop development. 10 BENEFITS: AGRICULTURAL EXAMPLE 11 Weather Forecasts and Warnings • Synops • Regional (SADC) • Medium range (ECMWF) • Local (SA) • Ensembles (NCEP) • Mesoscale • MOS • Ensembles • LDN • MOS • Radar • SAFFG • Ensembles • MOS • Multi-model Ensembles Coupled: GCM+ Ocean • Ocean Models GCM Ensembles • MOS > 2 Years • Upper Air 30 Days– 2 Years 11- 30 Days Tools • Satellite Global Climate Model Forecast Numerical Weather Prediction Observations 4 -10 Days 24 -72 Hours 0–6 Hours Watches & Warnings: • Severe weather Advisories: • Potential hazardous weather events • Rain and temperature anomalies • Rainfall & temperature anomalies • Agrometeorology advisory service • Rainfall and temperature anomalies • Rainfall and Temperature Tendencies Products 6-24 Hours Outlook: Outlook: • Climate Change • Agro-meteorology advisory service • Build necessary skills in the agro sector that enables better decisions – offering training to farmers and ensuring protection of assets • Maximising the utilisation of existing weather and climate service infrastructure • Improving coordination, and strengthening and building infrastructure where needed – strategically positioning observation network Benefits • Daily weather elements • Reducing the vulnerability of society, crops and livestock to climate-related hazards - air pollution, heat, floods, drought, lightning detection and diseases 12 Weather monitoring: 2015/16 El Niño droughts are associated with an eastward shift of tropical rain bearing clouds from the tropics. At the same time, higher pressures develop over South Africa, with descending warm and dry air at the surface. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 14 DROUGHT MONITORING INDICTORS (DMI) Rainfall Projections 16 National Temperature Scenarios •In the business-as-usual case (i.e. no mitigation), warming continues throughout the 21st century •the inland areas are projected to warm by more than 4°C above the 1986-2005 reference period by 2071-2100 (centered on 2085, right panel) 17 : Web Portal Customised weather-related web portals with security access, provides data and applications via the Internet to support weather sensitive industries to reduce water related challenges – www.hydronet.co.za accessed through the SAWS website Three applications: Weather Stations ̶ At a click of a button - direct access to actual (real-time) and historical rainfall information ̶ SAWS observation network data for planning & reporting purposes ̶ Amount of rainfall at a specific location per hour / per day / per time series RainMap ̶ To optimize the proactive scheduling of weather sensitive activities to manage water resources ̶ Reduce the need for additional rain gauges ̶ Easily accessible information as quality checks improve the data ̶ Personalised dashboards linked to own strategic indicators Weather Forecast ̶ Weather forecasts for specific locations over different time periods ̶ Improves risk related planning ̶ Reduces exposure to possible impacts of forecasted factors 18 POWER OF DATA MANIPULATION-e.g Provincial Scenarios Key Message (Eastern Cape Province) Variable Temperature Message Temperature Under Business-as-usual scenario, warming increases progressively in the 21st century from about 0.9°C [0.6 – 1.5] between 2016-2045 to 2.2°C [1.7 – 3.2] during 2046-2075 and 3.3°C [2.6 – 4.9] towards the end of the century Precipitation Winter precipitation is projected to decrease by up to 15% [4 – 26%] towards the end of the century (2071 – 2100) under the business-as-usual scenario Precipitation Models are uncertain in terms of precipitation, with some models projecting an increase in precipitation and some projecting a decrease Under aggressive mitigation, the average 21st century warming is about 0.7°C [0.4 – 1.7] in all seasons Key Message (Free State Province) Variable Temperature Message Temperature Under Business-as-usual scenario, warming increases progressively in the 21st century from about 1.2°C [0.7 – 1.9] between 2016-2045 to 2.7°C [1.9 – 4.1] during 2046-2075 and 4.2°C [3.2 – 6.2] towards the end of the century Precipitation Winter precipitation is projected to decrease by up to 20% [8 – 28%] towards the end of the century (2071–2100) under the business-as-usual scenario Precipitation The range is very wide during other seasons, with some models projecting an increase in precipitation and some projecting a decrease Under aggressive mitigation, the average 21st century temperature stabilize around 1.5°C [0.5 – 2.3] in all seasons CONCLUSION • Continue to enable Government, sectors, industries, etc • • • • • Provision of sector-specific products and services Provision of advisory services to industry and key decision makers Continued monitoring of drought, water resources and climate change impacts Collaboration with Key sector players Capacity building ̶ ̶ ̶ Train users on Interpretation, usage and pro-active response to weather and climate information Infrastructure operation and maintenance Availability of human capital skilled in specialised fields e.g. meteorology, climatology, agrometeorology, Hydro-meteorology • Infrastructure network expansion and optimisation ̶ ̶ Improved prediction and accuracy Strategic positioning of infrastructure – geo-specific information 22 Thank You! Questions? 23