Download Wind Energy and Technology Deployment under Climate Change

Briefing paper series
from the Cambridge
Centre for Climate
Change Mitigation
Research
Wind Energy and Technology Deployment under
Climate Change
Summary
Regional changes in wind speed and variability could have implications for the
positioning of new wind turbines, as well as associated infrastructure requirements.
Climate projections from state-of-the-art models can give insights into the likelihood of
change in areas being considered for investment. However, to facilitate the uptake of
such data in decision-making, it is important to consider stakeholders’ own perceptions of
their risk exposure and information needs. Here we present findings from a pilot study
exploring perceptions of climate change impacts on the wind energy sector amongst
industry representatives. Participants represented a cross-section of the wind energy
sector, self-identifying as energy companies, developers of wind farms, suppliers of wind
turbines or equipment, engineering firms, or investors. Participants’ perception of risks
and benefits of climate change on wind energy operations were explored through a
survey, along with their perception of information needs, and perception of institutional
capacity to generate and use information about climate impacts. Responses indicate that a
decision-making tool incorporating climate change data would be beneficial, as current
awareness of climate change impacts on the sector was limited amongst the participants.
However, decision-makers in this sector also face significant uncertainty stemming from
economic and social concerns. As such, in order to be communicated effectively, climate
change information must be presented in the context of this multi-risk landscape.
Potential challenges to the deployment
of wind energy due to investment risk
Introduction
The expansion of renewable energy as part of a transition to a sustainable energy
economy has large potential to mitigate the risks associated with anthropogenic climate
change. In this context, wind power is an important energy resource. Just ∼20% of the
world's wind power potential could satisfy 100% of the world's energy demand. Yet, the
wind power resource base is by its very nature, sensitive to fluctuations in climate. While
climate change is not expected to greatly impact global wind potential, regional changes
are anticipated. Therefore, decision-making about the positioning of future wind turbines
and investment in associated infrastructure may benefit from a strategic approach to
decision-making, which involves setting geographic priorities to manage climate change
risks.
The briefing paper series from
4CMR provides policy makers,
organisations, communities and
citizens with advanced research
on the roles of economic, energy
and environmental strategies for
reducing the risk of climate
change.
However, wind forecasting for energy generation mainly focuses on the shorter
timescales (seconds to days) on which power systems operations occur. Generating
projections of wind energy potential on the longer timescales of climate change (e.g. to
the end of this century), requires different approaches. On this timescale, consideration
must be given not only to how Earth system processes are best represented, but also to
the diverse potential trajectories of global development and their associated greenhouse
gas emissions. As such, long-term climate projections require the use of coupled
Atmosphere-Ocean Circulation Models (AOGCMs). However, these models are subject
to a range of uncertainties, including uncertainty that is not related to the climate system
(e.g. relating to future paths of global development). Such uncertainties may make the
uptake of such data for use in decision-making by non-specialists more challenging.
Methodology
After producing wind energy potentials under climate change, 16 potential expert
respondents were invited to participate in the expert panel; 12 completed the survey.
Stakeholders self-identified as one of the following:
• Energy company: creating, operating and maintaining a wind farm
• Developer: creating a wind farm
• Supplier: providing the wind turbines or other equipment for a wind farm
• Engineering: providing engineering support for the design of a wind farm
• Investor: providing capital (equity or debt) for a wind farm project
Three main question groups were identified and included in the survey instrument:
• Perception of risks and benefits of climate change on wind energy operations.
• Perception of information needs.
• Perception of institutional capacity to (a) generate and/or (b) use information about
climate change.
The survey instrument contained a mix of open and closed questions, to assure a level of
comparability while also encouraging qualitative insight.
Results
Perception of risks and benefits of climate change on wind energy operations
While the majority of respondents perceived that climate change would have no impacts
on their wind energy operations, some specific impacts, both positive and negative, were
also noted (see figure below). Positive impacts perceived were the potential for climate
change policy to stimulate wind power deployment and increased public acceptance for
wind power deployment.
Number of respondents identifying
climate change as producing positive,
negative, no or a balance of effects
Specific negative impacts cited were the potential for storm damage to turbines, and
future changes in wind patterns. Concern about changes in wind energy potential was
reported to be a predominantly long-term issue. Mean changes in wind energy potential
were of less concern than either variability changes alone, or combined mean and
variance effects.
These results suggest that stakeholders have some awareness of potential climate change
impacts on their business, but that the perceived lack of urgency may limit preparedness
to implement adaptation measures
Reported timescales of concern
regarding changes in wind energy
potential
Perception of information needs
Six respondents indicated that some additional information about wind energy potential
under climate change would be useful, though not critical in taking decisions. Needs that
were identified included general climate statistics, such as the mean and variance of
future wind speed, as well as specific data and tools, such as wind rose projections and a
capacity visualisation tool. The need for uncertainty distributions for key climate
parameters was also cited. Ten respondents indicated that they would like to be able to
consult with experts on matters relating to advanced climate data.
Perception of institutional capacity
The majority of respondents (7 out of 12) reported that they currently do not have
strategies in place to cope with shifts in wind energy potential under climate change.
Respondents noted that new turbine designs are increasingly robust against wind
variability, but that they still perceive a modest need for external scientific support in
order to identify and assess strategies for dealing with changes in wind climate, and
monitor climate change as it evolves in the future.
Planning issues were cited as the most significant challenge faced with respect to
decision-making about development sites. Participants identified two non-scientific areas
where better information would be advantageous; improved reliability of government
policy and planning guidelines, and improved information about the social issues that
give rise to community opposition.
Discussion
Community opposition has been reported as a critical issue oin wind energy investment
and development. Such opposition can ultimately lead to the cancellation of wind power
projects. In the UK, approximately 80% of the public indicate that they support wind
energy, yet planning applications for wind power developments have low success rates,
and only a quarter of contracted wind power capacity is actually commissioned, a
phenomenon referred to as the ‘social gap’. The NIMBY (Not-In-My-Backyard) concept
has long been is used to explain such opposition, but has been criticised for failing to
adequately explain the drivers of opposition.
Example of projection estimates provided in the study. This figure uses RCP 2.6 and
projections out to 2100. Mean wind speed is shown, with a later figure showing variance
for the same RCP 2.6 projection.
Opposition cannot be dismissed as the product of ignorance or misinformation. Indeed,
an individual with a positive attitude to wind power in general may oppose a particular
development. Examples in the literature indicate that opposition tends to stem from a
complex combination of concerns. For instance, local opposition to off-shore wind
development in Germany is linked not only to concern about visual impacts, but with
perceptions of the sea as a natural, rather than industrial, space.
Similarly, support for wind energy and for individual developments does not follow a
single narrative, but encompasses a range of discourses. Public support for wind energy
tends to be high where community (co-)ownership is a feature of a development.
Perceptions of fairness in the consultation process, which can be evaluated using
procedural justice principles, have also been shown to influence public support.
Evidently, further research is required in order to understand the social context of wind
energy.
Example of projection estimates provided in the study. This figure uses RCP 2.6 and
projections out to 2100. Variability in wind speed is captured in this figure.
Uncertainty stemming from economic, political and social issues is also a key concern
due to the direct impact such factors can have on investment decision-making. However,
such factors are difficult to include in predictive models of future wind energy capacity
and implementation. While GIS approaches can be used to incorporate current constraints
on development into such models, e.g. by excluding areas with national parks or in close
proximity to a shoreline, it is difficult to predict how such factors may evolve over time,
particularly on the longer timescales of climate change.
The Cambridge Centre for Climate
Change
Mitigation
Re-search
(4CMR) studies the inter-connected
economic,
energy
and
environmental policies at the heart
of climate change policy.
This Briefing Paper was developed
from research conducted by Aideen
Foley and Doug Crawford-Brown
of 4CMR, and Phil Holden of the
Open University, based on NERC
grant. For details, contact Doug
Crawford-Brown at 4CMR.
Conclusions
We have examined perceptions of climate change impacts on decision-making through
stakeholder engagement with a cross-section of the wind energy sector. The research
indicates the complexity of factors that factor in decision-making in this sector, with
climatological, political and social concerns each playing their role. Unlike political and
social systems, the climate system can be mathematically modelled to anticipate future
change. However, in order to be communicated effectively, climate change information
must be presented in the context of the multi-risk landscape faced by decision-makers.
Future research can build upon the findings of this study by exploring the predictors of
community support and identifying complimentary geographical datasets relating to such
social characteristics, that could be integrated with climate data in a GIS framework to
fulfil stakeholders’ information needs.
Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research
Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge
19 Silver Street
Cambridge CB3 9EP
(0)1223 764878
fin
Wind Energy and Technology Deployment under
Climate Change
Summary
The study of the financing of water control discussed here is part of a larger analysis of
water-catchment management that involves collective action by multiple and di-verse
stakeholders with differing aims, resources, authority and responsibility. These
stakeholders also differ in how the finance is structured (debt, equity or grants), the terms
under which fin
Wind Energy and Technology Deployment under
Climate Change
Summary
The study of the financing of water control discussed here is part of a larger analysis of
water-catchment management that involves collective action by multiple and di-verse
stakeholders with differing aims, resources, authority and responsibility. These
stakeholders also differ in how the finance is structured (debt, equity or grants), the terms
under which fin
Wind Energy and Technology Deployment under
Climate Change
Summary
The study of the financing of water control discussed here is part of a larger analysis of
water-catchment management that involves collective action by multiple and di-verse
stakeholders with differing aims, resources, authority and responsibility. These
stakeholders also differ in how the finance is structured (debt, equity or grants), the terms
under which fin
Wind Energy and Technology Deployment under
Climate Change
Summary
The study of the financing of water control discussed here is part of a larger analysis of
water-catchment management that involves collective action by multiple and di-verse
stakeholders with differing aims, resources, authority and responsibility. These
stakeholders also differ in how the finance is structured (debt, equity or grants), the terms
under which fin
The Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR) studies the
inter-connected
economic,
energy
and
environmental
policies at the heart of climate
change policy.
This Briefing Paper was developed from research conducted
by Aideen Foley and Doug
Crawford-Brown of 4CMR, and
Phil Holden of the Open
University, based on NERC
grant. For details, contact Doug
Crawford-Brown at 4CMR.
Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research
Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge
19 Silver Street
Cambridge CB3 9EP
(0)1223 764878