Download Future directions in adaptation research

Future directions in adaptation research?

Supporting the implementation of EU and Irish climate policy
Stefan Gray, EPA Research Fellow – Climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation
EU & Irish adaptation policy: Five research challenges
 Two key policy instruments:

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EU Adaptation Strategy (EU AS)
National Climate Change Adaptation Framework (NCCAF)
 …pose five key challenges
1. Uncertainty
2. Risks and costs
Mitigation
Climate
Change
Impacts
3. Coordination
4. Indicators & metrics
5. Transformation
Responses
Adaptation
Uncertainty
 Substantial uncertainties attend climate adaptation
 Particularly the case at local scales
 Adaptation is held to be a principally local issue
 NCCAF: Local authority County Development plans
must be reviewed to include adaptation by mid-2014
 How can the uncertainties of climate impact
projections be dealt with in local level planning?
 ‘Policy first’ adaptation assessment?
 Low-regret, win-win adaptation options?
 Adaptive (experimental) management?
(Ranger et al 2010)
Risks and costs
 Calculating the cost implications of climate impacts
is an extremely complex and difficult task
 Adaptation cost 2050 = US$75 – 100b/yr?
 SLR impact cost 2100 = US$300 – 90b/yr?
 EU AS: “climate-proof” CAP, CFP, infrastr. standards
 NCCAF: Sectoral adaptation plans to be published by
mid-2014, with a “clear understanding of the
consequences of climate change for each sector”
 How can climate impact cost and adaptation benefit
be evaluated in a pragmatic and tractable way?
 EEA (2013): ROA? RDM? RBR? Untested in Ireland
Coordination
 Adaptive measures adopted by one sector, region or
country may have maladaptive consequences
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Management is traditionally carried out in silos
Water management vs. Energy vs. Transport?
NCCAF: 6 Govt. Departments & 1 State Agency to prepare
12 sectoral adaptation strategies by mid-2014
 How can coordination across sectors, scales and borders
be facilitated?
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EU AS: National adaptation strategies; explicitly
particiaptory adaptation; targeted LIFE funding
Cross-sectoral conceptual modelling?
Communities of practice; oversight via a dedicated
(independent) body?
Indicators and metrics
 Beyond the avoidance of maladaptation, how to judge
what constitutes ‘successful’ adaptation is as yet unclear
 EU AS: Commission to develop an “adaptation
preparedness scoreboard”
 NCCAF: Sectoral adaptation plans to be revised and
updated every five years
 How can meaningful indicators and metrics of
adaptation efficacy be deployed?
 Should indicators be process or outcome based?
Qualitative or quantitative?
 Can existing performance metrics be employed in
adaptation, or must new metrics be developed in
the future?
Transformation
 Adaptation is an iterative process, the limits of which
System
Identity
3
Aims &
Objectives
2
Actions
are increasingly coming to be acknowledged (Dow et al
2013)
 The literature therefore calls for adaptation
management cycles to evolve toward double and
triple loop learning (Moser & Ekstrom 2010)
 NCCAF: Sectoral adaptation plans to be revised and
updated every five years; Local Authority County
Development plans adopted every six years
 What institutional or organisational innovations will
be required to facilitate transformation?
1
 How can adaptation cycles build knowledge and
Outcomes
establish momentum?
 Is anticipatory transformation feasible?
Conclusion
Uncertainty
 These research challenges are interdependent, and
foundational to the success of European and Irish
adaptation
Risks and costs
 They provide real opportunities to influence future
research and policy
Coordination
Indicators and
metrics
Transformation
 Timelines are short, adaptation is already underway
 Thanks for your time and attention!
Contact details:
Stefan Gray
[email protected]