Download Adapting to climate change to protect health * why?

Adapting to climate change to
protect health – a Pacific view
Alistair Woodward
School of Population Health
University of Auckland
Remais & Zhang. EHP 2011;119(7):893-5
Climate change and health: why an extra
degree or two (or 4) matters
• Variability and frequency of extreme events
more important than average conditions
Average temperature, Samoa, 1961-1990 (blue) and 2070-2099 (red)
Russia 2010:
1 month heatwave (38+)
55,000 excess deaths
1 million ha burnt
25% drop in crop yields
US$15 billion loss
'Mega-heatwaves' such as the 2003 and 2010 events broke the 500-yr
long seasonal temperature records over approximately 50% of Europe.
According to regional multi-model experiments, the probability of a
summer experiencing 'mega-heatwaves’ will increase by a factor of 5 to
10 within the next 40 years.
Barriopedro et al Science 21 March 2011
10.1126/science.1201224
Climate change and health: why should an
extra degree or two (or 4) matter?
• Compared with human populations, physical
and ecological systems are relatively open to
environmental change and may be exquisitely
sensitive to temperature rise
Increased sea surface temperatures associated with
coral bleaching and increased rates of ciguatera (fish
poisoning) in SW Pacific
Relation between temperature and development
of the malaria parasite (Extrinsic Incubation
Period)
Patz PNAS 2006;103:5635
Climate change and health: why should an
extra degree or two (or 4) matter?
• Sea level rise, storms, drought and crop failure
may displace millions of people, causing
poverty, conflict and violence
1
1
Geographical distribution of CC-attributable deaths in 2000
Deaths from malaria &
dengue fever, diarrhoea,
malnutrition, flooding, and
(in OECD countries)
heatwaves
WHO regions scaled according to estimated mortality (per million people) in the year
2000, attributable to the climate change that occurred from 1970s to 2000
(Patz, Gibbs, et al, 2007: based on McMichael et al 2004)
Cumulative Emissions of Greenhouse Gases
Kiribati – 0.2 tons CO2 per person per year
Return flight Auckland to Florence (economy) –
36874 km, 8.8 tons CO2 per passenger
Countries scaled according to cumulative emissions (billions of tonnes CO2equivalent) up to 2002.
(Patz, Gibbs, et al, 2007
Geographical distribution of CC-attributable deaths in 2000
Deaths from malaria &
dengue fever, diarrhoea,
malnutrition, flooding, and
(in OECD countries)
heatwaves
WHO regions scaled according to estimated mortality (per million people) in the year
2000, attributable to the climate change that occurred from 1970s to 2000
(Patz, Gibbs, et al, 2007: based on McMichael et al 2004)
Examples of health adaptations
1
7
Adaptation is important, but so is
mitigation
The emissions gap – the difference between where we are heading and where we need to go
Potential gains from
existing technology,
better implemented
Contributions
required from new
technologies
World Development Report 2010
But low carbon economic growth might be
health enhancing
Adapting to climate change to
protect health – a Pacific view
Alistair Woodward
School of Population Health
University of Auckland