Download Adrian Gault Chief Economist, Committee on Climate Change

Adrian Gault
Chief Economist,
Committee on Climate Change
The climate change
challenge for freight
Meeting Carbon Budgets: the climate
change challenge for freight
Adrian Gault, Chief Economist
([email protected])
13 May 2015
Structure of Presentation
• The Climate Change Act
• Performance against existing targets
• The challenge for transport and freight
• Next steps
The Climate Change Act
The Climate Change Act 2008
• A statutory 2050 target for emissions reduction
• Legally-binding 5-year ‘carbon budgets’
• Requirement to develop policies and proposals to meet budgets
• Establishes the CCC as independent advisor
The Committee on Climate Change
• How fast? Level of 2050 target and carbon budgets
• How? Sectoral contributions, technologies and policy options
• Progress? Monitoring: are we on track to meet budgets? Annual progress report to
Parliament
• Who? Advice for UK as well as specific consideration of Scotland, Wales and
Northern Ireland – including reporting to their governments and carrying out work
specific to them
• Adaptation Sub-Committee
Process: Committee of eminent economists and scientists weighs the evidence
Structure of Presentation
• The Climate Change Act
• Performance against existing targets
• The challenge for transport and freight
• Next steps
The 2050 Challenge
628 MtCO2e
International aviation & shipping*
UK non-CO2 GHGs
Other CO2
Industry (heat & industrial processes)
75% cut
(= 80% vs.
1990)
Residential & Commercial heat
Domestic transport
160 MtCO2e
Electricity Generation
* bunker fuels basis
2010 emissions
2050 objective
8
Cost effective path to 2027 has
been agreed in line with 2050
target
Greenhouse gas emissions
(includes aviation and shipping)
Further action likely to be
needed to meet 4th Carbon
budget, and 2050 target
Today
4th carbon
budget
Climate Change Act:
“It is the duty of the Secretary of State to
ensure that the net UK carbon account for
the year 2050 is at least 80% lower than
then 1990 baseline.”
Note: figure is non-traded sector only, statutory duty covers trade and non-traded. DEC central scenario based on CCC modelling of DECC evidence, uncertainty around CCC scenario based on DECC uncertainty
analysis.
Structure of Presentation
• The Climate Change Act
• Performance against existing targets
• The challenge for transport and freight
• Next steps
4th Carbon Budget scenario for the transport
sector
Central scenario in 2030
Cars
Vans
HGVs
•
New car efficiency = 80gCO2/km.
•
EVs = 60% of new cars (c.30% of stock).
•
Smarter Choices reduce car km by 5%.
•
New van efficiency = 120gCO2/km.
•
EVs = 60% of new vans (c.25% of stock).
•
New HGV efficiency improvement of c.30%.
•
Improved logistics and eco-driving to reduce fuel
consumption.
•
Conventional new bus efficiency improvement of
c.25%.
•
Hydrogen = 50% of new buses in 2030.
Buses
Bio-fuels •
Limited use of sustainable biofuels – c.8% in 2020.
Freight demand-side measures in the 4th
Carbon Budget
• By 2030, a 6.5% reduction in vehicle-kms from:
• More efficient routing / use of consolidation and distribution
centres.
• Better vehicle utilisation / improved lading / reduction of empty
running.
• Double-deck / high cube trailers.
• Off-peak travel to avoid congestion.
• A shift to less carbon-intensive travel modes such as rail.
• Also a fuel saving of 4% due to eco-driving.
• We have commissioned a new research project with Centre
for Sustainable Road Freight to improve the evidence base
in this area and make policy recommendations.
CfSRF project methodology
• Department for Transport Road Freight Statistics used to
establish a baseline:
• Mix of vehicle types and sectors
• Kilometres travelled
• Industry consultation, workshops and literature review to
establish uptake of efficiency measures:
• Vehicle fuel efficiency
• Current uptake of measures (logistics measures and technology
solutions)
• Future potential uptake of measures
• Future emissions reduction modelled by considering:
• Commercial decision making and payback period (capital costs vs
fuel savings)
• Low, medium and high uptake scenarios
• Non-financial barriers to uptake within the sector
Emerging recommendations – Key themes
• The project is ongoing and recommendations are yet to be
finalised, but a few key themes have emerged:
• Data: Improving the availability of logistics relevant data should help
to facilitate collaboration and improved planning
• Competition law: It would be helpful to clarify permissible forms of
collaboration in the context of competition law
• Longer, heavier vehicles: Use of longer, heavier vehicles would help
to reduce emissions but concerns over safety need to be fully
addressed
• Land use: Land use planning policy should have some consideration
of the benefits of urban consolidation centres
• This list is not exhaustive and specific recommendations have
not been finalised.
Structure of Presentation
• The Climate Change Act
• Performance against existing targets
• The challenge for transport and freight
• Next steps
Key statutory reports from the
Committee in 2015
• Statutory Progress to Parliament (end June):
• progress made to meet the existing carbon budgets and the
2050 target
• what further progress is needed
• Fifth Carbon Budget advice (by end December):
• Recommended level of 5th carbon budget (2028-32)
• Extensive engagement and analysis ongoing: direct links
into industry, workshops (business, science, power,
scenarios), call for evidence, commissioned research, peer
review, engagement with Departments
• Publications in Autumn leading up to final advice
• June 2016: deadline for legislation on 5th Carbon budget
Logistics Carbon Reduction
Conference 2015