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Wadi Environmental Science Centre DEMENA Youth Climate Ambassadors Presenting Egypt's Case Wadi Environmental Science Centre Table of Contents 1. Setting a background for Egypt 2. Sea Level rise 3. Climate change and Food Security 4. Water Resources Agriculture and land usage 5. Ecosystems Imbalance 6. Effects of Climate Change on Public Health 7. Air Quality in Cairo 8. Energy and transportation 9. Policies, regulations & Awareness campaigns Wadi Environmental Science Centre Setting a background for Egypt Egypt is located in the north-eastern corner of the African continent with an area about 1 million square kilometers. It is considered a developing country burdened by the scarcity of natural resources associated with extreme population growth (over 80 million people in total). The coastal zone of Egypt extends for more than 3,500 km and 40% of the population live there. Most of these people live in and around a number of major industrial and commercial cities: Alexandria, Port Said, Damietta, Rosetta, and Suez (El-Raey, 1999). Furthermore, the Nile delta covers the area from Cairo to the shoreline of the Mediterranean Sea, between the cities of Damietta in the east and Rashid in the west. Hot dry summers and mild winters prevail with relatively low, irregular, and unpredictable rainfall The inhabited area of the country constitutes only 4% of the total area of the country which is confined to the narrow strip of the Nile valley,from Aswan in the south to Cairo in the north. Its only source of water -the River Nile- provides more than 95% of all water available to the country. The Nile delta is one of the oldest intensely cultivated areas on earth. It is very densely inhabited, with population densities up to 1,600 inhabitants per square Wadi Environmental Science Centre kilometre; only (2.5%) of Egypt's land area, the Nile delta and the Nile valley, is suitable for intensive agriculture. Most of the 50 km wide land strip along the coast is less than 2 m above sea-level and is protected from flooding by a 1 to 10 km wide coastal sand belt only, shaped by discharge of the Rosetta and Damietta branches of the Nile. This protective sand belt is facing rapid erosion, which has been a serious problem since the construction of the Aswan dam. Rising sea level is expected to destroy weak parts of the sand belt, which is essential for the protection of lakes and the low-lying reclaimed lands. The impacts will be very serious as one third of Egypt's fish catches are made in these lakes. SLR will change the water quality and affect most fresh water fish, flood valuable agricultural land, and salinate essential groundwater resources. Egypt is potentially one of the countries most at risk from the effects of SLR, as will be discussed. Climate Change: Impacts of sea level rise in Egypt Sea level changes are caused by several natural phenomenon; the three primary contributing ones are: 1. Ocean thermal expansion 2. Glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica - in addition to a smaller contribution from other ice sheets3. Change in terrestrial storage. It is predicted that, with global warming, global average sea levels may rise by between 7 and 36 cm by the 2050s, by between 9 and 69 cm by the 2080s and 30–80 cm by 2100. The majority of this change will occur due to the expansion of the warmer ocean water (Roaf, et al., 2005). Since the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets contain enough water to raise the sea level by almost 70 m, people will be directly affected by rising sea levels in several ways. Wadi Environmental Science Centre As seas rise many areas of the coasts will be submerged, with increasingly severe and frequent storms and wave damage, shoreline retreat will be accelerated. In addition to expected disastrous flooding events caused by severe climate events such as heavy flooding, high tides, windstorms in combination with higher seas (Dasgupta, et al., 2007). Developing countries are certainly identified mainly at risk. The consequences of SLR for population location and infrastructure planning in developing countries should definitely be reviewed by the developing world. The research aims to discuss the dilemma which may arise in Egypt with the diverse effects of SLR; environmentally and socio-economically. It will examine a number of environmental features affected; water resources and coastal zones. As well as highlighting the socioeconomic dimensions influenced; population, agriculture, urban areas and gross domestic product (GDP). Since it is necessary to have an in-depth understanding of vulnerability for decision-making with regard to adaptation, we consider the results of vulnerability assessments in 2 case studies. Vulnerability of developing countries to climate change Vulnerability to climate change is considered to be high in developing countries due to social, economic, and environmental conditions that amplify susceptibility to negative impacts and contribute to low capacity to cope with and adapt to climate hazards. Moreover, projected impacts of climate change generally are more adverse for lower latitudes, where most developing countries are located, than for higher latitudes. Because of the high level of vulnerability, there is an urgent need in the developing world to understand the threats from climate change, formulate policies that will lessen the risks and to take action. First: Environmental aspects affected by SLR Water resources Wadi Environmental Science Centre Egypt is one of the African countries that has proved vulnerable to water stress caused by climate change. The water used in 2000 was estimated at about 70 km3 which is already far greater than the available resources. Both water supply and demand are expected to be affected by climate change and SLR. A combination of salt water intrusion due to SLR and increased soil salinity due to increased evaporation are expected to reduce the quality of shallow groundwater supplies in the coastal areas. Rainfall measurements in coastal areas are unpredictable and it is difficult to expect whether rainfall is increasing or decreasing. The demand for water in Egypt is dominated by three major user groups: agricultural irrigation, domestic use, and industry. The agricultural sector consumes about 85% of the annual total water resource. It is therefore likely that any effects of climate change on water supply and demand will be dwarfed by a much larger increase in demand due to population growth. One of the most outstanding impacts of SLR on the water resources is that it will increase the occurrence of saline intrusion with contamination of groundwater resources in the coastal zone. The eastern part of Lake Manzala appears to subside at a rate of 4.5 mm yr–1, faster than any other region along the Nile delta coast. SLR is expected to cause a landward shift of the salt wedge and to increase the rate of saline seepage to the topsoil of the delta. This may have a serious impact on agriculture and drainage conditions, and potentially on available groundwater resources in the upper Nile delta. In addition, the salinity in Lake Manzala may increase because of the stronger influence of tidal flows penetrating the lake. Changes in the salinity conditions of the lake may affect its ecology and fisheries and the accelerated SLR will enhance the increase in salinity. As for the Nile Basin, it was found that there is no clear indication of how the Nile river flow will be affected by SLR, due to uncertainty in projected rainfall patterns in the basin and the influence of complex water management and water governance structures. Wadi Environmental Science Centre Coastal Zones Egypt's coastal zones constitute particularly important regions economically, industrially, socially and culturally. In addition to increased tourism activities, a tremendous move towards building new industrial complexes has always been in progress, particularly in the coastal zones. The coastal zones of Egypt extend for over 3500 km in length along both, the Mediterranean Sea and Red Sea coasts. The Mediterranean shoreline is most vulnerable to SLR due to its relatively low elevation. The coastal zone of Egypt is therefore particularly vulnerable to the impact of SLR, salt water intrusion, the deterioration of coastal tourism and the impact of extreme dust storms. This in turn will directly affect the agricultural productivity and human settlements in coastal zones. During the last decades, after the construction of the High Aswan dam, sediment input in the delta has been strongly reduced. This resulted in serious shore erosion and salt-water intrusion which changed the delta from river- to wavedominated. Currently, the Nile delta experiences erosion waves driven by the currents of the east Mediterranean gyre that sweep across the shallow shelf with speeds up to 1 m/s., Moreover, the construction of human-made waterways for irrigation and transportation has trapped an already depleted sediment supply to the Nile delta. This entrapment of sediment is a key contributor to coastal erosion and land loss occurring in the Nile delta and the Nile’s two projections, Rosetta and Damietta. At present, erosion is a significant environmental problem affecting Damietta city’s coastal zone, which has retreated more than 500m in over 10 years. Erosion along the tip of the Damietta projection has adversely affected homes to the east at Ras El Bar. However, a number of protective structures have been constructed along this projection to reduce shoaling in the river entrance. Continuous SLR is expected to enhance rates of erosion of the northern coast and Nile delta. Second: Socio-economic effects of SLR Wadi Environmental Science Centre The coastal zone of Egypt suffers from a number of serious problems, including rapid demographic growth, land subsidence, excessive erosion rates, water logging, soil salination, land use interference ecosystem pollution and degradation, and lack of appropriate institutional management systems. In turn, this will affect the management and access to archaeological sites; reduce tourism, and result in socio-economic impacts on the inhabitants of these areas. Population Egyptian coastal population are undeniably exposed to the effects of SLR, with its accompanying flooding as the population is expected to double before the year 2050, if the present growth rate is maintained. SLR is expected to affect Egypt in many ways; with just a one-meter rise in the Mediterranean Sea, the Nile delta stands to suffer tremendously; 6.1 million people are predicted to be displaced and 4,500 square kilometres of cropland will be lost. A correspondingly rapid growth in agricultural and industrial output will be required to sustain this population. Loss of beaches will reduce the number of tourists in coastal areas, forcing tourism dependent individuals and communities to abandon their settlements and look for jobs elsewhere. This may probably lead to increased unemployment inducing political and civil unrest. Moreover, increased water logging and salinity may catalyse insect and pest problems causing health problems. Reducing vulnerability to such threats is a major challenge to sustainable development and land use strategies. Coastal defence engineering is costly, while managed coastal retreat implies sacrificing private property and usable natural resources. It was noted in the world bank report that Egypt’s population would be most severely impacted by SLR within the Middle East and North Africa region. With a 1m SLR, approximately 10% of Egypt’s population would be impacted. Most of this impact takes place in the Nile delta which will have 20% of it affected with a 5m SLR Wadi Environmental Science Centre Agriculture and food resources Expected climatic change, population increase, urbanization and industrial development as well as irrigation intensification constantly increase water demand and can intensify the vulnerability of agriculture in Egypt. Also, the increase of temperature and frequency of extreme events will reduce crop yield as well as causing changes in the agricultural distribution of crops. Furthermore, it will negatively affect marginal land and force farmers to abandon them increasing desertification and unemployment associated with loss of income consequently political unrest Urban areas As for the urban areas affected; Egypt is ranked the fifth in the world concerning the biggest impact of SLR on the total urban areas, scientists predict the Mediterranean will rise by a range of 30 centimetres to one meter by the end of the century but still a one-meter rise in the level will possibly submerge Alexandria. This highlights the potentially deadly exposure of its inhabitants, since storm water drainage infrastructure is often outdated and inadequate in such lowincome urban centres. The risks may be particularly severe in poor neighbourhoods and slums, where infrastructure is often nonexistent or poorly designed and ill-maintained. Generally, fundamental and low-lying installations in Alexandria and Port Said are threatened by SLR and the recreational tourism beach facilities are endangered of partial and even full loss. Vulnerability assessment of Alexandria Governorate Alexandria is the second largest city in Egypt. It has the largest harbor in the country, and about 40% of Egypt’s industrial activities are based there. Its waterfront beach is located along the northwestern border of the Nile Delta coast. It extends for over 63 km and is considered the principal seaside summer resort on the Mediterranean. The resident population exceeds 4.0 million, and more than 1 million local summer visitors enjoy the summer season at Alexandria every Wadi Environmental Science Centre year. The city is built on a narrow coastal plain extending from Marakia to the west to Abu Quir to the east and Lake Marioute to the south. Alexandria’s coastal plain is composed of a series of shore-parallel carbonate ridges (about 35 m elevation), which are separated by depressions of shallow lagoons and sabkha. Beach erosion, rip currents, pollution, and SLR are the main problems affecting coastal management at Alexandria (El Raey et al. 1995, Frihy et al. 1996). A multi-band LANDSAT TM image (September 1995) of the city was analyzed to identify and map land use classes. A geographic information system was built in an ARC/INFO environment including layers of city district boundaries, topographic maps, land use classes, population and employment of each district, and archaeological sites (El Raey et al. 1995, 1997). Scenarios of 0.2, 0.5, and 1.0 m SLR over the next century were assumed, taking current land subsidence (2.5 mm yr–1) into consideration. Percentage population and land use areas at risk for each scenario were identified and quantified. Table 1 shows results of the risk of inundation due to each scenario ‘if no action is taken’, over the coastal strip of the waterfront (about 63 km). The first column (SL = 0.0 m) represents the percentage of each sector currently located at an elevation below sea level. These sectors are currently protected from inundation, either naturally or by hard structures. If sea level rises by 0.25 m, the second column of the table shows the percentages of these sectors that will be inundated. In this case, inundation will affect areas above sea level in all sectors since there is no protection; this is also the case for the other amounts of SLR. These results were used to assess potential losses of employment for each sector. Analysis of the results indicate that, if no action is taken, an area representing the difference between SLR = 0.5 m and SL = 0.0 m will at least be lost due to a SLR of 0.5 m. This amounts to 45% of the beaches, 13% of the residential area, 12% of the industrial area. Wadi Environmental Science Centre Table 1. Percentages of the population and the areas of different land use currently existing below sea level (SL = 0.0 m) and percentages that will be affected under different sea level rise (SLR) scenarios for the city of Alexandria (El Raey et al. 1999) Sector SL = 0.0 m 0.25 SLR (m) 1.0 0.5 Population 45 60 67 76 Beaches 1.3 11 47.8 64 Residential 26.2 27.5 39.3 52 Industrial 53.9 56.1 65.9 72.2 Services 45.1 55.2 75.9 82.2 Tourism 28 31 49 62 Restricted area 20 21 25 27 Urban 38 44 56 67 Vegetation 55 59 63 75 Wetland 47 49 58 98 Bare soil 15 24 29 31 Table 2. Area loss, population displaced and loss of employment in each sector due to different SLR scenarios in Alexandria Governorate, assuming a scenario of 1 m SLR by 2100 (El Raey et al. 1997) SLR (cm) 18 (2010) 30 (2025) 50 (2050) Area loss (km2) 11.4 19.0 31.7 252 545 1512 Agriculture 1370 3205 8812 Tourism 5737 12323 33919 Industry 24400 54936 151200 Total loss of 32507 70465 195443 Population displaced (x1000) Loss of Employment Wadi Environmental Science Centre employment 30% of the services, 21% of tourism, and 14% of the bare soil. At least 1.5 million people in addition to their dependants will have to abandon their homeland, 195 000 jobs will be lost, and an economic loss of over US $35.0 billion is expected over the next century. The analysis shown in Table 2 indicates that the most severely affected employment sector will be industry, followed by tourism and agriculture. A detailed assessment of the impact on each district of the city has also been recently carried out (El Raey et al. 1995, 1999). Vulnerability assessment of Port Said Governorate Port Said Governorate is located in the northeastern part of the Nile Delta (30° 50’ N to 31° 00’ N, 32° 00’ E to 32° 30’ E). The Governorate has a total area of about 1351 km2 and is divided into 5 districts: El Shark, El Monakh, El Arab, El Dawahi, and Port Fouad. The population of Port Said Governorate is about 0.5 million, the average population density is 391 persons km–2, and the rate of population growth is 1.45%. The actual cultivated land in Port Said Governorate is about 483 km2. This area supports about 2.38% of Egypt’s agricultural activities. The total reclaimed area for agriculture is about 567 km2. The main income of this Governorate depends on revenue from the Suez Canal, tourism, free trade zones and industrial activities. The industrial activities include food canning, cloth making, carpet weaving, and the leather industry (IDSC 1995). The city assumes strategic importance because of its location on the inlet/outlet of the Suez Canal and because it is the largest economic center close to Sinai on the Mediterranean. The coastal zone of Port Said area is socioeconomically important to most of the population in this area. Tourism is primarily oriented toward swimming and Wadi Environmental Science Centre sunbathing. Therefore, the coast, its slope, and the quality of beach and sea are of prime importance to this industry. Most tourist facilities such as hotels and youth camps are located within 200 to 300 m of the coast. There are also important archaeological sites along the northern part of the Suez Canal. Many environmental problems exist in the coastal zone of Port Said. Of particular importance are problems of beach erosion, pollution, subsidence, and SLR. These are detailed in the following sections. Beach erosion The projections of the Nile Delta, Rosetta and Damietta are currently undergoing extensive change from both natural and anthropogenic pressures. The highest rate of erosion occurs along the outer margins of these projections. This erosion is a result of the combined effects of cut-off of River Nile sediment discharge by the Aswan High Dam and prevailing coastal processes. Erosion along the tip of the Damietta projection has adversely affected homes and condominiums to the east at Ras El Bar, and it has destroyed the old coastal road from Damietta to Port Said and the lighthouse west of the river (Frihy et al. 1996). However, a number of protective structures have been constructed along this projection to reduce shoaling in the river entrance. These structures are described in detail by Fanos et al. (1995). SLR is expected to enhance rates of erosion. Pollution problems The western and southern sectors of Lake Manzala are supplied by drainage water from 7 main sources. Water from these drains enriches the lake with nutrients, including phosphate, nitrate, and silicate. In addition, some of these drains discharge considerable amounts of sewage and industrial wastes directly into the lake. The Ginka subbasin in the southeast sector of the lake is identified as a ‘black spot’. SLR is Wadi Environmental Science Centre expected to enhance diffusion in the coastal area and magnify the adverse effects of this pollution. Subsidence and SLR The eastern part of Lake Manzala (Port Said and the northern part of the Suez Canal) appears to subside at a rate of 4.5 mm yr–1 (e.g. Stanley & Warne 1993), faster than any other region along the Nile Delta coast. SLR is expected to cause a landward shift of the salt wedge and to increase the rate of saline seepage to the topsoil of the delta. This may have a serious impact on agriculture and drainage conditions, and potentially on available groundwater resources in the upper Nile. Delta. In addition, the salinity in Lake Manzala may increase because of a stronger influence of tidal flows penetrating the lake. Changes in the salinity conditions of Lake Manzala may lead to impacts on lake ecology and fisheries. Accelerated SLR will enhance the increase in salinity. Combined with the notion that it is unlikely that the lake will expand inland (as protection measures will be taken), this leads to the general prediction that shallow wetland areas will decrease and that the reed beds will become less abundant (due to higher salinity). Socioeconomic impacts The most serious impact of SLR on Port Said Governorate would be the threat to recreational beach communities as well as to other activities in the coastal zone. Based on the adopted local SLR scenarios of 0.50, 0.75 and 1.25 m, losses of land area, urban areas, industrial areas, vegetation areas, population, and employment were estimated. Estimates of losses were carried out by overlying Bruun’s horizontal retreat distances over land use areas obtained from satellite images and ground surveys (El Raey et al. 1998). Results indicate that beach areas (hence tourism) are most severely affected, followed by urban areas. The agriculture sector is the least affected sector. Percentages as well as expected economic losses for each case are shown in Wadi Environmental Science Centre Table 3, in which the estimates used for an area of 1 km2 are about US $100 million for beach and agricultural areas and US $500 million for industrial areas. Even though the affected beach areas are large, the percentage losses in industrial areas, transportation network, and urban areas are the most serious. It is estimated that the economic loss is over US $2.0 billion for a 0.5 m SLR and may exceed US $4.4 billion for a 1.0 m SLR. About 28 000 to 70 000 people are expected to be displaced, and at least 6700 to 16 700 jobs are expected to be lost for the scenarios adopted. Thesocioeconomic impacts of excessive beach erosion are dramatic. Industry plays an important role for employment income in Port Said Governorate, due to the existence of the Suez Canal. SLR will affect this sector; its loss is about 12.5% in the case of a 0.50 m SLR. COASTAL PROTECTION ACTIVITIES AND CONSIDERATIONS The Egyptian government is taking several actions in cooperation with global communities to protect the risked areas and to decrease the effects of the climate change by serious research work and setting new environmental regulations (Fahmy, 2007). It has been stated that the Egyptian government had been working for the past 30 years on sea erosion reduction and shore protection measures, particularly by constructing dams in the Nile delta. Furthermore, institutional water bodies in Egypt are working to achieve targets by 2017 through the National Improvement Plan which aims to impede some of the negative impacts of SLR on water resources. It has planned to improve water sanitation coverage for urban and rural areas, develop wastewater management, and optimise the use of water resources by improving irrigation efficiency and agriculture drainage-water reuse (Bates, 2008). To develop an adaptation strategy, the current activities and policy of coastal protection should be quantified. Wadi Environmental Science Centre A review of the coastal protection activities in progress, as well as of the durability of structures, design, and costs of implementation along the Nile Delta coast, are presented in this section. 4.1. Recent coastal protection activities Fanos et al. (1995) presented a review for all the protection works along the Nile Delta coast, which can be summarized as follows: (1)West of Alexandria. The new drain at the western Nobariya drain outlet is about 20 km to the west of Alexandria. Two jetties of 65 m length were constructed in 1986 to protect the exit from siltation, and they are functioning effectively. (2) Eastern harbor of Alexandria. A 180 m extension of the existing west breakwater would narrow the gap between the west and central breakwaters from its existing 300 m width to 100 m (Tetratech 1986). This decrease in gap width would reduce wave heights along the critical area of the Corniche. (3) Alexandria beaches. Five beaches, El Shatby, Stanley, Sidi Bishr, El Asafra, and El Mandra, were nourished by medium to coarse sand transported from the desert near Cairo. (4) Abu Quir Bay. The Abu Quir Sea wall was built in 1780 and has been maintained by placement of additional large concrete blocks. This wall was modified and reinforced in 1980 by constructing a sloping face (2:1) and placing 0.5 ton modified cubes as a layer of protection. (5) West of El Gamil regulator and inform of El Fardos village. In 1994, construction of 4 detached breakwaters was begun in the area to protect it from erosion. Each breakwater is 250 m long and is constructed from a bargemounted plant at a water depth of 4 m. The cost of these 4 breakwaters is US $3.5 million (Delft Hydraulics 1991). These are still under construction. (6) El Gamil outlet. Two jetties of 225 and 200 m length on the western and eastern sides of El Gamil outlet, respectively, were constructed to protect this Wadi Environmental Science Centre outlet from siltation and migration. The cost of these 2 jetties was US $0.75 million (Delft Hydraulics 1991). (7) Highway near El Gamil airport. A small bituminous dike, about 4 km in length, was constructed to protect the low parts of the coastal road near the airport from flooding. The cost was US $1.0 million (Delft Hydraulics 1991). Adaptation and short-term protection methods Beach nourishment and groins Beach nourishment includes depositing sand onto the open beach as well as beach scraping, building artificial dunes as storm buffers and beach sand reservoirs, and laying pipes underneath the beach to suck in the water and trap sand. Groins, which are hard structures perpendicular to the coastline, are used with beach nourishment to trap sand. The expense of this option is very low compared to other options. The net benefit (direct and indirect) of this option is good because it forms new beaches for tourism and creates employment. The environmental impact of this option is fair, particularly for the beach. It is good for fishing due to the migration of fish to offshore areas. The flexibility (success in the long term) of this option is good with regard to SLR. The chance of success is judged to be good. This option needs periodic nourishment. The public acceptance (feasibility) of this option is excellent, and the expected environmental impact (fairness) along other coastal areas is excellent, as long as the nourishment is carried out periodically for vulnerable beaches. This option has no effect on fishermen, and it may increase fishing because sand material could constitute a new source of nutrients for fish. Beach nourishment has no adverse effects on farmers, and it protects their land from flooding and saltwater intrusion. Also, this strategy has no adverse effects on the industrial workers, and it protects the factories and workers from flooding. Wadi Environmental Science Centre The best advantage of this strategy is the retainment of the beach for tourism, the protection of hotels, and an increase of jobs in the tourism sector. Breakwaters Breakwaters are hard structures used to reduce the wave energy reaching the shoreline. They can be set up offshore as submerged breakwaters or as riprap along the shore to absorb wave energy. This strategy is relatively very expensive. The net benefit of this option is only along the coastline, not on the social community or ecosystem. The environmental impact of this strategy is fair, but it is considered to be the best available tool for protection of lowland areas. The flexibility is good and so is the chance of success. The feasibility of implementation of this strategy is good. People staying in the coastal area need to protect themselves from coastal erosion. This strategy affects fishing processes, so the fishermen need new tools and modern motor boats for fishing offshore. Breakwaters and dikes are good tools for protecting cultivated land as well as all the infrastructure that is located in the coastal areas; therefore, the farmers, industrial workers and employment in the tourism sector are not affected by this option. An article in the Middle East Times, by Joseph Mayton mentioned that experts warn that Egypt could be on the receiving end of a natural disaster of substantial proportions. Although numerous scenarios are being studied by scientists, two things appear certain in all of them: Alexandria, Egypt's second largest city on the Mediterranean Sea coast is expected to disappear and North Africa will be facing trouble for years ahead. The Egyptian Minister of State for Environmental Affairs, Maged George, stated to a parliamentary committee in Cairo that many of the towns and urban areas in the north of the Nile delta will suffer from a rise in the level of the Mediterranean with effect from 2020, and about 15 percent of delta land is under threat from the rising sea level and its seepage into the ground water. He said that joint studies by his ministry and the United Nations have assessed the situation is urgent, adding that Egypt is planning to start an Wadi Environmental Science Centre international campaign to look for proper solutions (Thomas, 2008b). While a cost assessment for contingency measures has not yet been conducted in Egypt, the 2007 IPCC report advised that adaptation costs for climate change would be much lower than post-event expenses. Finally: Adaptation plans are mainly focusing on increasing the adaptive capacity of the different systems, by changes in processes, practices, or structures to reduce climate risks (Watson,2001). In developing countries, the priority of these plans is the high vulnerable systems to climate change. Therefore, the high vulnerability of the agricultural sector put it on top of the priority list of adaptation plans. Adaptation to climate change in Egypt is a major issue from the perspectives of food production, rural population stabilization, and distribution of water resources. Previous studies have addressed adaptation in a top-down approach, evaluating theoretical options with little relation to current agricultural management. There is a need to incorporate the value of the management knowledge for formulating adaptation measures for agriculture in a bottom-up approach as this is the major sector acutely skewed by SLR. However, to date, there is little evidence that the international community has seriously considered the implications for population location and infrastructure planning as a means of adapting to the impacts of SLR in many developing countries including Egypt (Dasgupta, et al., 2007). Food Security Challenges 1. Dwindling Water Supplies and Food Insecurity Climate change also threatens to upend the precarious balance of water allocation between Egypt and the other states bordering the Nile. Egypt and Sudan currently claim the vast majority of the Nile’s water despite their location down river from the source regions. These claims are made under the Nile Basin Treaty of 1959. The treaty denied the riparian states, which were still under Wadi Environmental Science Centre colonial rule, all but the most minimal allocation of water. Today, states like Ethiopia that already face severe water stress are demanding more water than the treaty allows for. While the variability in models prevent a conclusive determination of whether climate change will mean more or less rain at the Nile’s source waters, it is clear that the increased evaporation due to rising temperatures will result in greater water stress. [ii] Increased scarcity will threaten Egypt’s development plans. Agrawala et al point to this danger, writing that one third of international monetary support for Egypt’s development is for projects involving sectors threatened by climate change. [ii] As the Nile’s waters dwindle, the survival of communities in Ethiopia and other states currently disputing water rights with Egypt will also be placed in jeopardy. Finally, climate change could exacerbate the food security issues that Egypt already faces. Egypt’s report to the UNFCCC states that “climate change may bring about substantial reductions in the national grain production.” [i] Grain is only one of Egypt’s food sources endangered by unmitigated climate change. Even without climate change, by 2020 Egypt is projected to import 300-360 thousand metric tons of fish, which is a third of its projected domestic production. [iv] However, climate change could drastically increase Egypt’s trade imbalance in fish products while simultaneously tightening the global fish market. As the sea level rises, salt water will infiltrate the North Egyptian lakes where 60% of Egypt’s fisheries are located. [ii] As the lake water becomes saltier, the aquatic plants that protect the marine life by filtering the contaminated wastewater from Egypt’s industry will die off. [i] The shallow nature of Egypt’s lakes will provide little protection from temperature increases that could disrupt the marine ecosystems. [ii] As Egypt’s domestic fisheries face increased risks, Egypt will be forced to import more fish from other nations whose own fisheries will be facing decline. Disruptions in Egypt’s food supply could impose starvation and economic stress, likely leading to unrest. Food scarcity has a history of provoking instability in Egypt: according to the Washington Post “the only mass popular uprising in Egypt in the past half-century” occurred in 1977 when there was an attempt to eliminate subsidies for bread. [viii] In 2008, riots broke out in Egypt Wadi Environmental Science Centre over the lack of food. While the riots that occurred last year eventually came to an end, Mubarak was forced to call out the military to distribute and bake bread 2. Food security threatened by falls in production and world price rises Livestock production would suffer due to a deterioration in the quality of rangeland associated with higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and to changes in areas of rangeland as climate boundaries move northwards. In the European Mediterranean, the area of unproductive shrubland is expected to expand, while in North Africa and the Near East, most of the steppe rangeland could give way to desert by 2050 or earlier. Yields of grains and other crops could decrease substantially across the Mediterranean region due to increased frequency of drought. While losses may be partially offset by beneficial effects from carbon dioxide, crop production would be further threatened by increases in competition for water and the prevalence of pests and diseases and land losses through desertification and sea level rise. Climate change effects combined with wider socio-economic factors could cause cereal production over much of southern Europe to become untenable. At Kardista in central Greece, for example, the chance of obtaining current yields of maize could drop to close to zero by 2050, while in Spain, irrigation problems could force maize out of production. In North Africa and the Near East, changes in average climate associated with a doubling of carbon dioxide could cause yield losses of over 20% for wheat, corn and other coarse grains - even before allowance is made for losses through other causes. In coastal areas, large areas of productive land may be lost through flooding, saline intrusion and waterlogging. In Egypt, for example, agricultural production may cease altogether over an area extending 20 km inland. World prices for many key commodities such as wheat, maize, soybean meal and poultry could rise significantly as a result of global climate changes. Not only might Mediterranean countries loose substantially in economic terms, but the Wadi Environmental Science Centre combination of higher prices and crop losses would lead to a deterioration in levels of food security in, particularly, southern countries. Climate Change and Agriculture Agriculture: Major crops in Egypt include wheat, maize, clover, cotton, rice, sugar-cane, fava bean, sorghum and soybean. National wheat and maize production do not meet the current demand for these crops, and each year additional amounts have to be imported. The rapid growth of the country’s population, the economic stress of reliance on food imports, and the limited area for agriculture require Egyptians to findnew ways to increase agriculture productivity. Future climate change scenarios predict a decrease in wheat and maize yields in Egypt threatening national grain production, which is already short of meeting local demand. Conversely, the seed cotton yield is expected to gradually increase. Vulnerability of crops to changes in pest infestation and plant diseases is another potential impact of climate variability. The images below illustrate the damaged caused by blight to potato crops in Giza resulting from little variation in temperature and humidity. Infected Fields Healthy Fields Planting different wheat and maize cultivars, as well as changing crop choices in the Egyptian agricultural product mix are among possible adaptation strategies to climate variability. The following chart provides an estimate of the expected Wadi Environmental Science Centre change in major crop production in Egypt by the year 2050 due to climate change. Expected change in major crop production in Egypt by 2050 In Egypt, several studies have been undertaken to attempt to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the agriculture sector. For wheat and maize production this was evaluated by simulating crop production under different climatic scenarios. The potential impact on cotton was evaluated by analyzing sensitivity to temperature in three main agroclimatological regions: the Central Delta region, represented byn 62 Sakha, the Middle Egypt region represented by Giza, and Upper Egypt represented by Shandaweel. Vulnerability of Agriculture Sector: Because of the uncertainties associated with predicting climate change, researchers commonly use climate change scenarios to estimate how climate affects a system. Scenarios derived from the General Circulation Models (GCMs) and arbitrary sensitive tests (e.g. +2 and +4 C temperature changes, +/- 10 –20% precipitation changes) are recommended to estimate potential future change in yield and other agronomically important variables. Wadi Environmental Science Centre All climate change scenarios considered resulted in simulated decreases in wheat and maize yields in the three sites. Thus, it is possible to conclude that climate change may bring about substantial reductions in the national grain production. As for cotton,it is clear that seed cotton yield will be increased gradually to arrive at its maximum by the year 2050 due to the expected impact of climate change (i.e. when temperatures increase +2C and +4C) under the normal CO2 concentration. If climate change as projected by atmospheric scientists (IPCC 1990, 1992a,b and 1994) adversely affected crop production, Egypt would have to increase its reliance on costly food imports. Early Warnings The recent data on the dangers of climate change reaffirm the early warnings provided by the Climate Institute and others about Egypt’s vulnerability. In the March-April 1992 Climate Alert, the Climate Institute published a story summarizing several reports on vulnerable countries presented at the Climate Institute-sponsored symposium for UN missions and nongovernmental organizations. The presentation on Egypt warned of drops in Nile flow, loss of arable land, and changes in Egypt’s trade balance for critical crops. [ix] In 1995, Dr. Stephen Leatherman, co-chairman of the Climate Institute at the time, was the principal investigator of a 5-year EPA study on the dangers of sea level rise that isolated Egypt as one of the nations that would suffer the most. The study not only predicted the forced migration of 2 million people but also warned of the disastrous effect a rising sea level would have on the Egyptian tourism sector. [x] The evidence and consensus is overwhelming that Egypt will face serious challenges as the climate changes. Egypt's Response: 20% by 2020 While Egypt’s unique geography makes continued climate change extremely dangerous, its geography also provides the potential for a strong renewable energy sector. Egypt is stepping up to take advantage of this potential by Wadi Environmental Science Centre assuming a leadership role in climate change mitigation among Middle Eastern and North African nations. By 2020 Egypt plans to produce 20% of its energy from renewable sources. Egypt has already received 300 million dollars from the World Bank’s Clean Technology Fund [xii] and is planning to implement a feed-in tariff to support the further development and proliferation of renewable energy technologies. [v] Egypt’s geography allows for the development of several sources of renewable energy on a large scale. As part of the 20% goal, Egypt plans to produce 12% of its energy from wind power. Reaching the 12% from wind goal would involve producing 7200 MWs of wind energy by 2020. [v] The New Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) found that Egypt’s Red Sea coast “is one of the windiest places in the world,” [vii] and the Egypt National Report for Plan Bleu estimates that there is the potential for 20,000 MWs of wind power from the Red Sea coast alone. Egypt’s geography provides great advantages for wind power development, and the Global Wind Energy Council is optimistic about Egypt’s potential for wind energy development, noting that there were already 356 MWs of installed capacity in 2008 with several more projects in development. [v] As there are very few population centers along the Red Sea coast, wind development is unlikely to face stiff competition for land. [vi] Moreover, Egypt’s wind resources are not limited to the Red Sea coast. The deserts to either side of the Nile Valley and the Sinai provide more land that could potentially be developed for wind power, [vi] even though the wind speeds are slightly lower there than along the Red Sea coast. Egypt can also mobilize solar power to meet its 20% goal. According to a report by the NREA, Egypt is well endowed in its solar power resources with a yearly average of 1900-2600 Kwh of solar radiation per meter squared. [vii] On average the US only receives 1759 KWh/m2. [xi] Egypt plans to construct a 150 MW solar plant, which generates 30 MWs through solar thermal, and by 2020 Egypt plans to have built two additional solar plants, each with 300 MWs of capacity. [vi] In Wadi Environmental Science Centre addition, Egypt could save a lot of energy through the use of solar water heaters. Egypt’s solar water heater industry began after Egypt imported 1000 solar heaters in 1979. [vi] In 1987, Egypt required that new buildings have solar water heating systems. [vi] Unfortunately, Egypt’s initial foray into the use of solar water heaters was a failure. Poor quality resulted in numerous problems that reduced public confidence in solar water heaters, and builders began to ignore the requirement. The problems in quality were compounded by the difficulty of providing maintenance instruction to the more rural areas. However, the initial failure is not cause to abandon solar water heater use in Egypt. Other states including Israel have successfully implemented regulations requiring the use of solar water heaters. The solar water heaters currently functioning in Egypt already save 290,000 tons of CO2 emissions annually, [vi] and the NREA suggests that the number of people using solar water heaters could be grown by increasing financial incentives, establishing strict production guidelines, and providing instruction on how maintain the systems. Water Resources and Agriculture and Land Usage The Egyptian freshwater supply is dependent upon Nile River flow and underground fresh water sources, such as aquifers, that supply oases, rural regions and farmlands throughout the country. The Nubian Sandstone aquifer is the largest underground fresh water system in Egypt and is highly important as a fresh water source, however, because its waters are fossil waters primarily from the Jurassic period and the contribution groundwater’s allow is so minimal, it is ultimately a non-renewable, finite resource. It is a groundwater system of a complex structure which extends over a large area of 2 million kilometers squared, encompassing Egypt, Sudan, Libya and Chad. The Western Desert lies over the Nubian Sandstone aquifer and is composed of three groundwater units that are related to geographical locations. The NorthWestern Basin contains the Qattara Depression and Siwa Oasis. Ed-Dakhla Basin is the most important in Egypt’s groundwater systems. Beginning in the 1960’s, Wadi Environmental Science Centre known as El Wadi el Gedid project under Nasser, El Kharga, Ed-Dakhla, El-Farafra and El-Bahariya oases became reclaimed and cultivated. Since then the amount of groundwater extracted from the aquifer has doubled and the extraction rate as of 2003 was at 500 million meters cubed annually and the amount estimated for the entire aquifer’s contents lies around 150,000 kilometers cubed. To be more exact, 3 million meters cubed per day are extracted from Siwa Oasis/Qattara Depression, Farafra-Bahariya Despression ranges from 500,000-1 million meters cubed per day and the Kharga-Dakhla Depression extracts 3 million meters cubed per day. It is estimated that if 1.5 meters of this water are to be used for agricultural purposes annually, the water will be used up within fifty years. The ongoing cost of energy to using aquifer and groundwater sources also makes this economically unprofitable in the long run. Over exploitation of the aquifer has already led to salt water intrusion, especially in the Delta from the Mediterranean Sea . Another source of water in Egypt, which is seriously unutilized, is rainwater. Based on a yearly average, Egypt experiences rainfall in the amount of 10 billion meters cubed, leading to an average surface run-off amount of .5-1 billion meters cubed of water. This may double in particularly wet years. This water could be collected by using low earth dams and water saving agricultural methods The Aswan High Dam, completed in 1971, has since controlled Nile water flow in Egypt by creating storage for more than one year in order to accommodate for wet or dry years. The ultimate goal of the Dam is to control water flow through Egypt in order to save approximately 32 billion meters cubed of Nile water from flowing freely into the Mediterranean. Though the original outset of the project was to store and secure a viable and consistent water resource for Egypt’s people and land and protect a growing population from annual flooding, there have undoubtedly been problems associated with this change. In regards to water usage, unexpectedly high water loss has occurred and some experts argue that Egypt has actually lost water rather than gained it. The main sources of water loss are from evaporation and seepage in the storage lake at the dam. The annual loss from this is estimated at 15 billion meters cubed, almost double from the original 7.5 billion meters cubed expected to be gained from the project. There is also Wadi Environmental Science Centre issue from water loss in the discharge system of the Nile from the dam. This is primarily attributed to free access to water from the countryside off of the discharge system and also because hydroelectric power is require from the dam, demanding a release of water when it is not necessary for water supply . There is no agreement on the trend of climate change in terms of precipitation and evaporation. Precipitation is likely to rise within the next decades within almost the entire Nile basin; however, in recent decades a decrease in rainfall was recorded in the Ethiopian highlands that provide about 80% of Nile water. Temperature is also likely to increase and overall evaporation is as well, leading to a reduction of Nile River flow possibly reaching 75% in the most extreme cases. The estimated increase in population in Egypt poses another threat to water resources, especially the Nile. Irrigation potential for foodstuff is not fully or efficiently utilized and creates more of a threat than the issue of arable land. The question here is how the vast irrigation potential will be used to its optimum within the coming decades. With the projected flux in rainfall, yet pressing evaporation factor, it will become ever more important to use water harvesting techniques, such as lakes and dams, to retain the potential increase in efficiency in agricultural waters in order to compensate for the demand for both municipal and industrial water. In regards to water management and agriculture there are four major categories: flood irrigation, seepage, poor network conditions, and water quality. Drip irrigation and land leveling are possible remedies to this problem. Egypt is also the end of the Nile River flow and has experienced problems in public expansion for the amount of water received from the flow. Any environmental disturbance or political discrepancies between Egypt and the source countries could be detrimental. Irrigated agriculture represents the bulk of the demand for the water in Egypt. Under water scarcity, it is the first sector affected and water shortages lead to reduced food production. A multi-disciplinary action (crops, irrigation methods, economic systems) is needed at all levels (national and international .) Land Distribution and Usage: Wadi Environmental Science Centre The 1950’s witnessed major land reforms under Nasser that have led to the evolution of land use issues we see today. Over time, with the regulations of the landowners and the tenants evolving under the land distribution, landowners no longer wanted to make a long term tenancy contract anymore, and preferred to lease the land informally for the year and charge high rates to the tenants at the end of harvest. A law was passed in 1992 by the government which raised rents to close the gap between rents paid and the prices for leased property. The ultimate consequence of this has been that small landholders cannot pay their rent and the land is being turned back over into the hands of the richer populace. The major environmental consequence this has is that land is rented on a yearly basis and continually changes hands of those who farm it, leading to degradation of the land as there is no investment by those farming and no desire for improvement or preservation of soil quality. The largest problems with conducting agriculture today in Egypt is scarcity of arable land and soil degradation via over fertilization and salination from improper irrigation practices . Some programs, organizations and plans have been implemented, as there is an intensive population pressure in the Nile Delta and Nile Valley. Land fertility is deteriorating progressively. Productivity is hindered by combined technical and socio-economic factors. Urbanization and desertification lead to dramatic loss of arable lands. Salt is one of the most prominent pollutants that result from irrigated agriculture. The present agricultural strategy is not based on self sufficiency but on food security, using Egypt’s competitive advantages. Food policy should focus on making the best use of all productive resources, which for agriculture include: land, water, labor, climate and the proximity to vast export markets by growing crops for which it has a comparative advantage. Field irrigation methods and devises should be improved, including field irrigation canals. More night irrigation should be encouraged to save water. Since Nasser Egypt has made great efforts to reclaim desert land and to open new water sources. Approximately 100,000 feddans of land has been reclaimed since 1952. The average yields of cultivation on reclaimed land are relatively low and have high input costs. This makes land reclamation in the desert difficult, Wadi Environmental Science Centre especially under the constricting environmental and economic conditions faced in Egypt. From 1952-1997 the greatest portion of land reclamation was on arable land on the western and eastern sides of the Nile delta. What has since happened and embodies the vision of the future is that the greatest portions will be to peripheral regions in order to enable a population migration out of the Nile valley. This mostly constitutes land in the south-western desert and the north western portion of Sinai, east of the Suez Canal. The land reclamation projects that have actually had a more immediate and visible effect has been done on the outer rims of Cairo. The satellite cities of 6th of October and New Cairo/5th Settlement have developed rapidly as residential and private sector sites. Not only have they served to emigrate the population outside of the city center, but have also allowed for private sector investments and development. Universities and shopping centers have also followed suit and established themselves in the new settlements areas, with the largest shopping mall in the Middle East, Mall of Arabia, well under construction in 6th of October. An issue that is often faced in these settlement areas is reliable access to resources. It is reportedly routine to have water and or electricity shut off for up to days at a time, especially during the summer months, in New Cairo. Efficient and continual access to resources for these expanding satellite settlements places further strain on the government and the environment to support population migrations into the desert region . In the western Nile delta and on the north west Mediterranean coast there is a large push for land reclamation. 27 percent of the total reclaimed land in Egypt was in the governorate of El Beheira as of 2001. The land was originally reclaimed for irrigation using Nile water and then given to small farming projects. In West Nubariya and the Naturn Valley land was originally reclaimed to distribute among graduates as potential plots for agrarian purposes. However, the possession of these reclaimed properties gave way to the wealthy and military personnel who then established larger scale farms and plantations. In the 1990’s a reclamation project was instituted to access and irrigate approximately 400,000 feddans in Egypt north western coastal strip. This constitutes the An-Nasr Canal and the Al Hammam Canal. This region is primarily dependent on brackish groundwater from Wadi Environmental Science Centre the aquifer. The situation of the small farms stretching along this area from Cairo to Alexandria suffers from serious problems. There is a shortage of irrigation water, a permanent increase in the costs of power for water pumps, transportation issues, a general increase in production costs and failure in marketing their products. For example, in 2001, oranges were left unpicked on trees because their resale value was so far under the production costs. We also see in this area absorption of large amounts of land (5,000 feddans+) by the wealthy and governmentally affiliated in order to secure land as an investment and or under governmental privilege. However, it is sited that the main issue these farmers face is irrigation water shortage. This is due to the region but made worse by the water hungry crops often grown, such as oranges and bananas. It has also forced farmers to dig more wells and tap the low quality, hi salinity, aquifer water, thus degrading the soil and destroying orchards and crops Ecosystems Imbalance due to Climate Change: Land and Sea Introduction An ecosystem is a community of plants and animals that interact together and with their abiotic and natural environment. The different ecosystems are differentiated based on the dominant climate, topography, vegetation and other factors. Ecosystems included natural (eg. marine coastal systems, lakes, forests etc.) and human constructed systems (e.g. agro-ecosystems, urban ecosystems, etc.). Humans and their communities are an integral and often dominant component of ecosystems. The World Bank describes Egypt as particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, saying it faces potentially "catastrophic" consequences. The effect of climate change on ecosystems is currently measured using two key features: Wadi Environmental Science Centre 1- Empirical synthesis and modeling of species range shifts and life-cycle processes that coincide with recent evidence of climate change, from which scenarios of ecosystem change are inferred; and 2- Experiments examining plant-soil interactions under simulated warming. Both kinds of assessment offer indisputable evidence that climate change and its effects on ecosystems are ongoing. One major flaw of these approaches is that they don’t consider the feedback and interplay between trophic levels in ecosystems. Ecosystems degradation and imbalance in Egypt is a vital issue, particularly land and water given that more than 95% of the lands are deserts. Moreover, in a report published by the UNDP in 2000, an estimated 35% of the total agricultural land suffers from secondary salination – caused by soil degradation, poor drainage and excessive irrigation. Causes Imbalances in ecosystems have been known to be results of many factors, mostly related to human activities. Some of these factors include: population growth, pollution, industrialization, deforestation, urban land expansion. Among other reasons, agricultural land being lost to urbanization and windblown sands; increasing soil salination below the Aswan High Dam; desertification; oil pollution threatening coral reefs, beaches, and marine habitats; other water pollution from agricultural pesticides, raw sewage, and industrial effluents; limited natural fresh water resources away from the Nile, which is the only perennial water source; and rapid growth in population overstraining the Nile and other natural resources Types of Ecosystems in Egypt Marine The case of mangroves Wadi Environmental Science Centre Mangroves are trees of various species that adapted to living with their roots submerged, which sometimes causes problems in oxygen supply and salt regulation. The most common mangrove species is Avicennia marina. Mangroves are abundant in coastal areas and especially in flood water valleys, which continue to trickle underground water even if the rainy season is short. Mangroves are essential in the coastal ecosystem as they offer protection to and a nursery ground for young shrimps and fish. Drought that extends over many years can cause these ecosystems to dwindle in size, and with their role removal, other dependent species fight for survival. The case of coral reefs Scientists have been observing an on going trend in which coral reefs are bleached due to the increased acidification in the Red Sea, caused by climate change. This bleaching of coral reefs isn’t only an ecosystem imbalance, but it’s a threat to Egypt’s diving and snorkeling tourism industry – which brings in millions of tourists annually. This is dreadful news to a country which, according to a 2009 report by the World Bank, owes 20% of its foreign currency earnings to the tourism industry, which employs 12.6% of the workforce. The case for Lake Nasser and the Aswan Dam The Aswan High Dam, built in the 1960s, created major change in one of the world’s largest and most famous rivers. The dam stopped the annual flooding that provided new fertile soil each year, the basis for agriculture in ancient Egypt. The decrease in water flow below the dam also changed the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Prior to the dam construction, Mediterranean water was less salty than regular sea water because its waters mixed with freshwater from the Nile. Heavy metal pollution in the lake has large implications on the entire lower Nile valley, which in turn poses a high risk for the agricultural production and potential. Wadi Environmental Science Centre The case for the recent shark attacks An Oceanic White Tip Shark attacked tourists in Sharm El Sheikh in five separate incidents this December. In an attempt to address the huge media attention, Egypt’s park authorities captured and killed two sharks – a White Tip and a Mako, both listed as vulnerable in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red list of threatened species. The oceanic white tip shark (Carcharhinus longimanus) is found around the world in deep, open water that has a temperature greater than 18C. Once an abundant species, its numbers dropped by about 70% from 1990 to 2000 as it fell victim to gillnets and longlines in the world's ever-increasing number of fisheries. The incidents highlight a highly unusual and aggressive behavior displayed by the Sharks towards humans. Speculations are varied from suspecting poaching of the fins by Yemeni fishermen to export to Japan, while others suggest that an ecosystem imbalance causing food shortage could have urged the sharks to look for new food sources closer to the reef and the shore. Some blame the behavior of tourists – feeding fish – which would attract fish to the reefs where most tourists are snorkeling/diving and fish can attract their predator (i.e. shark) into the shallow waters where they can run into humans. Another claim with relation to food is that most divers want to see or photograph sharks as part of their Red Sea experience. Land The Nile Delta and Nile Valley are severely being affected by Climate Change. Sea water intrusion into cultivated land, alkalization, salinization and water logging due to mismanagement of lands, soil pollution – are all factors that are causing rapid desertification and a sharp decreased crop yield which in turn affects the country’s food security. Ecosystems Imbalance and its Effect on Public and Livestock Health Wadi Environmental Science Centre The environmental health risks posed to humans and livestock in Egypt are glaring while the causes are not dealt with in the proper means or immediate urgency. Improper ecosystems management and severe agricultural, domestic and industrial contamination are the leading factors. In a report published in 1997 by the WHO on the State of Health and the Environment, it was concluded that the poor environmental quality (and ecosystems) was directly responsible for 25 percent of all diseases that could be classed as preventable (e.g., occupational illnesses, acute respiratory infections, diarrhea, and malaria). The impact of climate change on temperatures and precipitation levels can highly influence vectors and the diseases they carry e.g. Cholera and Malaria. In the case of Cholera, it has been strongly linked to degraded coastal marine ecosystems of warm waters and degraded nutrient rich soil. Effects of Climate Change on Public Health In 2007, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that: “Human beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (for example, more intense and frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in water, air, food quality and quantity, ecosystems, agriculture, and economy. At this early stage the effects are small but are projected to progressively increase in all countries and regions.”1 Throughout the world, the prevalence of some diseases and other threats to human health depend largely on local climate. Extreme temperatures can lead directly to loss of life, while climate-related disturbances in ecological systems, such as changes in the range of infective parasites, can indirectly impact the 1 IPCC Report, http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/index.html Wadi Environmental Science Centre incidence of serious infectious diseases. In addition, warm temperatures can increase air and water pollution, which in turn harm human health.2 Given the complexity of factors that influence human health, assessing health impacts related to climate change poses a difficult challenge. Furthermore, climate change is expected to bring a few benefits to health, including fewer deaths due to exposure to cold. Nonetheless, the IPCC has concluded that, overall (globally), negative climate-related health impacts are expected to outweigh positive health impacts during this century. In spite of the Arab World's relatively small 4.2 percent contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, the Arab Forum for Environmental Development (AFED) report states, the Middle East remains one of the most vulnerable areas in the world to climate change. “Damage associated with climate change is not distributed proportionately according to emissions,” the report notes, pointing out that the regions least responsible for global warming will be hit the hardest.3 And according to the report, entitled, "Egypt's Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): "Egypt is one of the most vulnerable countries to the potential risks and impacts of climate change. Health effects of climate change are expected to be particularly significant for vulnerable populations such as elderly, children, infirm and poor”4 The UN-mandated report prepared by the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA) on the effects of climate change in Egypt also made clear that global warming could introduce new diseases into Egypt and exacerbate existing public health problems. 2 US Environmental Protection Agency, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/health.html Al-Masry Al-Youm, Arab world must brace for climate change, http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/report-arab-world-must-brace-climate-change 3 4 Al-Masry Al-Youm, Egypt faces global warming-related health hazards, http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/egypt-faces-global-warming-related-health-hazards-unclaims Wadi Environmental Science Centre Direct impacts of climate change on human health in Egypt are perceived to include physiological disorders, skin cancer, eye cataracts, damage to public health infrastructure, deaths and injuries, heat strokes and heat related phenomena, etc. Meanwhile, the indirect impacts are perceived to include factors like demographic dislocations, socio-economic disruptions, ecological system impacts, and air pollution impacts. To illustrate, many of the fossil fuel combustion processes that produce CO2 and other greenhouse gases also produce a host of air pollutants such as particulate matter (PM), sulphate, ozone, and other pollutants, all of which have short term adverse effects on public health. Temperature Climate change may directly affect human health through increases in average temperature. Such increases may lead to more extreme heat waves during the summer while producing less extreme cold spells during the winter. Rising average temperatures are predicted to increase the incidence of heat waves and hot extremes. Over a longer time period, increased temperatures have other effects ranging from drought to ecosystem changes that can affect health. Droughts can result in shortages of clean water and may concentrate contaminants that negatively affect the chemistry of surface waters in some areas. Drought may also strain agricultural productivity and could result in increased food prices and food shortages, worsening strain on those affected by hunger and food insecurity. As for Egypt, as water temperature rises it will cause the snail hosts that carry Shistosomiasis, also known as Bilharzia, to extend their range. It is also important to note that extending irrigation networks to compensate for expected global warming-induced water shortages could lead to increased human exposure to the parasite.5 5 The Arab Republic of Egypt: Initial National Communication on Climate Change, http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/egync1.pdf Wadi Environmental Science Centre Extreme Events Extreme weather events can be destructive to human health and well-being. The extent to which climate change may affect the frequency and severity of these events, such as hurricanes and extreme heat and floods, is being investigated by world governments. An increase in the frequency of extreme events may result in more event-related deaths, injuries, infectious diseases, and stress-related disorders. Sea level rise for example increases the risk from extreme weather events in coastal areas, threatening critical infrastructure and worsening immediate and chronic health effects. Salt-water entering freshwater drinking supplies is also a concern for these regions, and increased salt content in soil can hinder agricultural activity in coastal areas.6 In Egypt, the effects of climate change also include an increase in the frequency and severity of sandstorms, and longer periods of drought followed by more intense flooding. This is expected to lead to public health problems, including the spread of epidemics, especially in poorer regions. More generally, national income will decline and will in turn result in the spread of social and political problems. Climate Sensitive Diseases Climate change may increase the risk of some infectious diseases, particularly those diseases that appear in warm areas and are spread by mosquitoes and other insects. These “vector borne” diseases include malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever, and encephalitis. Also, algal blooms could occur more frequently as temperatures warm — particularly in areas with polluted waters — in which case diseases (such as cholera) that tend to accompany algal blooms could become more frequent. Higher temperatures, in combination with favorable rainfall patterns, could prolong disease transmission seasons in some locations where certain diseases 6 Health Effects, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, http://www.cdc.gov/climatechange/effects/default.htm Wadi Environmental Science Centre already exist. In other locations, climate change will decrease transmission via reductions in rainfall or temperatures that are too high for transmission. For example, temperature and humidity levels must be sufficient for certain diseasecarrying vectors, such as ticks that carry Lyme disease, to thrive. And climate change could push temperature and humidity levels either towards or away from optimum conditions for the survival rate of ticks. The IPCC has noted that the global population at risk from vector-borne malaria will increase by between 220 million and 400 million in the next century. While most of the increase is predicted to occur in Africa, some increased risk is projected in Britain, Australia, India and Portugal. As for Egypt in specific, although Egypt has not reported an indigenous case of malaria since 1998, yet global warming may cause Egypt to fall prey to the disease. Not only will global warming "extend the range and growth season" of mosquitoes--which often serve as vehicles for malaria--but it also threatens to accelerate the development of the malaria pathogens in mosquitoes, increasing the efficiency of disease infection. Air Quality Climate change is expected to contribute to some air quality problems. Respiratory disorders may be exacerbated by warming-induced increases in the frequency of smog (ground-level ozone) events and particulate air pollution. Ground-level ozone can damage lung tissue, and is especially harmful for those with asthma and other chronic lung diseases. Sunlight and high temperatures, combined with other pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds, can cause ground-level ozone to increase. Another pollutant of concern is "particulate matter" also known as particle pollution or PM. Particulate matter is a complex mixture of extremely small particles and liquid droplets. When breathed in, these particles can reach the deepest regions of the lungs. Exposure to particle pollution is linked to a variety of significant health problems. Particle pollution also is the main cause of visibility Wadi Environmental Science Centre impairment (haze). Climate change may indirectly affect the concentration of PM pollution in the air by affecting natural or “biogenic” sources of PM such as wildfires and dust from dry soils. Nutrition and Child Development Regional climate change impacts on agricultural yields and production are likely to grow over time, with the most negative effects expected in developing countries. This is expected to increase the number of undernourished people globally and consequently lead to complications in child development.7 Climate change may also contribute to social disruption, economic decline, and displacement of populations in certain regions due to effects on agricultural production, already-scarce water resources, and extreme weather events. These issues are likely to be more severe in developing countries, and may worsen human health and well-being in affected regions. Asthma, Respiratory Allergies, and Airway Diseases8 Respiratory allergies and diseases may become more prevalent because of increased human exposure to pollen (due to altered growing seasons), molds (from extreme or more frequent precipitation), air pollution and aerosolized marine toxins (due to increased temperature, coastal runoff, and humidity) and dust (from droughts). Mitigation and adaptation may significantly reduce these risks. Research should address the relationship between climate change and the composition of air pollutant mixtures (e.g., how altered pollen counts and other effects of climate change affect the severity of asthma) to produce models to identify populations at risk. Such tools support the use of science in understanding disease risks and as such, are an integral component of developing effective risk communication and targeting the messages to vulnerable populations. 7 An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications, http://www.gbn.com/articles/pdfs/Abrupt%20Climate%20Change%20February%202004.pdf 8 A Human Health Perspective on Climate Change, http://www.cdc.gov/climatechange/pubs/HHCC_Final_508.pdf Wadi Environmental Science Centre Cancer Many potential direct effects of climate change on cancer risk, such as increased duration and intensity of ultraviolet (UV) radiation, are well understood; however the potential impact of changes in climate on exposure pathways for chemicals and toxins requires further study. Science should investigate the effects of mitigation and adaptation measures on cancer incidence so that the best strategies can be developed and implemented; for example, research to inform understanding of the benefits of alternative fuels, new battery and voltaic cells, and other technologies, as well as any potential adverse risks from exposure to their components and wastes. Better understanding of climate change impacts on the capacity of ocean and coastal systems to provide cancer curative agents and other health-enhancing products is also needed. In Egypt’s case, Liver Cancer poses as the gravest threat to public health. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Egypt has one of the highest incidences of hepatitis C, one of the main causes of liver cancer, in the world. Infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major global health care problem. WHO estimates that up to 3 percent of the world’s population has been infected with the virus. The infection rate ranges from as low as 0.1 percent in Canada to the extremely high rate of 18.1 percent in Egypt.9 A study by Amal Samy Ibrahim, a professor of epidemiology at Egypt’s National Cancer Institute, said food and water contamination, which is a major cause of liver cancer, is rampant in Egypt. The study also stated that liver cancer will hit even more Egyptians 10 years from now.10 Food and water borne Diseases and Nutrition Climate change may be associated with staple food shortages, malnutrition, and food contamination (of seafood from chemical contaminants, biotoxins, and pathogenic microbes, and of crops by pesticides). Science research needs in this 9 IRIN, humanitarian news and analysis, http://newsite.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportID=89846 Ibid 10 Wadi Environmental Science Centre area include better understanding of how changes in agriculture and fisheries may affect food availability and nutrition, better monitoring for disease-causing agents, and identification and mapping of complex food webs and sentinel species that may be vulnerable to climate change. This research could be used to prepare the public health and health care sectors for new illnesses, changing surveillance needs, and increased incidence of disease, as well as development of more effective outreach to affected communities. As for Egypt, the UNFCC report states that Egypt is at risk of an increase in water-borne and food-borne diseases due to global warming. It predicts the spread of such diseases due to global-warming induced floods "that cause contamination of public water supplies," along with "droughts that encourage unhygienic practices because of water shortages." Such changes could lead to higher incidences of childhood diarrhea, a major cause of death among children worldwide. In regards to nutrition, malnutrition rates in Egypt could skyrocket as a result of climate change since global warming and changes in rainfall patterns will affect water resources and food production capacity, this in turn shall affect agricultural cropping patterns and production, having a severe effect on food intake per capita. Heat-Related Morbidity and Mortality Heat-related illness and deaths are likely to increase in response to climate change but aggressive public health interventions such as heat wave response plans and health alert warning systems can minimize morbidity and mortality. Additional science should be focused on developing and expanding these tools in different geographic regions, specifically by defining environmental risk factors, identifying vulnerable populations, and developing effective risk communication and prevention strategies. Mental Health and Stress-Related Disorders Wadi Environmental Science Centre By causing or contributing to extreme weather events, climate change may result in geographic displacement of populations, damage to property, loss of loved ones, and chronic stress, all of which can negatively affect mental health. And since Egypt’s Nile delta is one of the most vulnerable areas to sea level rise which by default would result in a huge movement of migration, great attention needs to be allocated to identify key mental health effects and vulnerable populations, and develop migration monitoring networks to help ensure the availability of appropriate health care support. Conclusion Despite the great risk climate change poses on Egypt, it might be able to mitigate the worst of these health-related impacts through the improvement of existing vaccination programs and the provision of high-quality health care to vulnerable populations, the spread of communicable diseases related to global warming can be checked. Egypt should develop early-warning systems and control programs for infectious diseases, which would rely on the collaboration between meteorological and health services. Climate change endangers human health, affecting all sectors of society, both domestically and globally. The environmental consequences of climate change, both those already observed and those that are anticipated, such as sea-level rise, changes in precipitation resulting in flooding and drought, heat waves, more intense hurricanes and storms, and degraded air quality, will affect human health both directly and indirectly. Addressing the effects of climate change on human health is especially challenging because both the surrounding environment and the decisions that people make influence health. For example, increases in the frequency and severity of regional heat waves—likely outcomes of climate change—have the potential to harm a lot of people. Certain adverse health effects can probably be avoided if decisions made prior to the heat waves result in such things as identification of vulnerable populations such as children and the elderly and Wadi Environmental Science Centre ensured access to preventive measures such as air conditioning. This is a simplified illustration; in real-life situations a host of other factors also come into play in determining vulnerability including biological susceptibility, socioeconomic status, cultural competence, and the built environment. 11 In a world of myriad “what if” scenarios surrounding climate change, it becomes very complicated to create wise health policies for the future because of the uncertainty of predicting environmental change and human decisions. The need for sound science on which to base such policies becomes more critical than ever. In addition to the research needs identified in the individual research categories, there are crosscutting issues relevant to preventing or avoiding many of the potential health impacts of climate change including identifying susceptible, vulnerable, and displaced populations; enhancing public health and health care infrastructure; developing capacities and skills in modeling and prediction; and improving risk communication and public health education. Such research will lead to more effective early warning systems and greater public awareness of an individual’s or community's health risk from climate change, which should translate into more successful mitigation and adaptation strategies. For example, health communications research is needed to properly implement health alert warning systems for extreme heat events and air pollution that especially affects people with existing conditions such as cardiovascular disease. Such a risk communication pilot project might demonstrate communication practices that are effective in multiple areas, and contribute to a comprehensive strategy for addressing multiple health risks simultaneously. Other tools are needed and should be applied across multiple categories to close the knowledge gaps, including predictive models to improve forecasting and prevention, evaluations of the vulnerability of health care and public health systems and infrastructure, and health impact assessments. Trans-disciplinary development would help to ensure tools such as improved baseline monitoring 11 A Human Health Perspective on Climate Change, http://www.cdc.gov/climatechange/pubs/HHCC_Final_508.pdf Wadi Environmental Science Centre that will be more widely applicable, and thus more efficient and cost effective than those currently available. In fact, many of the identified science needs will require trans-disciplinary responses. For example, to study how heat waves alter ambient air pollution and the resulting combined impact of heat and pollution on human illness and death, will require expertise in atmospheric chemistry, climate patterns, environmental health, epidemiology, medicine, and other science fields. Given the complexity of the science needs and the potential overlap of research questions across disciplines, promoting trans-disciplinary collaboration among and within different agencies would be a logical approach and should be a high priority. Research and science could be improved to provide support for decision and policy making on climate change and human health. Specifically, for a more complete catalogue of climate change health impacts, increasing the power of prediction tools, enhancing integration of climate observation networks with health impact surveillance tools, and improving interactions among stakeholders and decision makers. The next step will be for different agencies to discuss the findings of research with stakeholders, decision makers, and the public as they work to incorporate and prioritize appropriate research needs into their respective science agendas and collaborative research efforts. A coordinated approach will bring the unique skills, capacities, and missions of the various agencies together to maximize the potential for discovery of new information and opportunities for success in providing key information to support responsive and effective decisions on climate change and health. Air Quality Air: The mixture of gases constituting air in its known percentages and natural properties, and in the provisions of this Law, it is the ambient air, air within the work places, and air in closed or semi-closed public places. Wadi Environmental Science Centre Air Pollution: Any change in the properties or specifications of the natural air which causes hazards to human health or to the environment, whether resulting from natural factors or human activities, including noise. What Are the Causes of Air Pollution in Egypt? Since 2002 Egyptians have taken a more serious approach to air pollution. In 2003 an article for The Environmentalist, Profession Nicholas Hopkins of the American University, Cairo, Egypt, says that Arab countries are finally starting to take environmental issues seriously and are setting up government agencies to address them. He says that Egyptians are consumed with problems of sewage, garbage and clean streets and that air, water and noise pollution are of secondary importance. Strangely, Egyptians do not blame global environmental phenomena for pollution but rather blame each other. Air Quality in Cairo The World Health Organization claims that air quality in Cairo, Egypt, is up to 100 times what is considered a safe limit. This, according to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) causes a serious risk of developing serious respiratory disease and cancer from inhaling particulates in the air. There are three main causes of air pollution in Egypt: transportation, industrial and meteorological. 1. Transportation Many Egyptians rely upon extremely old vehicles for transportation. These inefficient vehicles cause the carbon present in fuel to ineffectively react with oxygen during combustion, producing carbon monoxide or condensing to form particles of soot. The hydrocarbons do not combust completely and are released as gaseous hydrocarbons or absorbed by particles, increasing the particulate mass in the air. Wadi Environmental Science Centre 2. Industrial Industrial facilities such as factories and plants emit toxic gases into the atmosphere. Another major source of toxic emissions in Egypt is the widespread open-air burning of trash and waste. Waste landfills also give off methane, which, although not toxic, is highly flammable and can react in the air with other pollutants to become explosive. Major industrial pollutants include sulphur oxides, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. 3. Meteorological The speed at which pollutants disperse in the air is determined by meteorological conditions such as wind, air temperature and rain. Egypt and Cairo, particularly, have a very poor dispersion factor due to lack of rain and the layout of streets and buildings, which are not conducive to air flow. Air pollution in Cairo The greater Cairo area, home to 15 million people, has the worst air pollution in Egypt. Fumes from Cairo's 2.5 million vehicles, combined with suspended particulate matter (including lead) plus sand blown into urban areas from the neighboring Western Desert, create an almost permanent haze over the city. Cairo also has high levels of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide. Air quality in Cairo and throughout Egypt is measured by an every-growing network of monitoring stations (42 stations in 2001) installed with the support of USAID. Air pollution in Egypt comes from a number of sources, including industrial sites, vehicular emissions, and smoke from burned garbage and agricultural detritus. In 2000, fine particulate matter (PM10) was Egypt's largest air quality issue. PM10 is emitted primarily by industrial sources and vehicles and is very dangerous to human health as the fine particles can penetrate deep into people's lungs. NOx and SOx levels were generally within limits proscribed by Egyptian law in 2000, Wadi Environmental Science Centre but in industrial areas or areas with traffic congestion levels, they were sometimes higher than both Egyptian and World Health Organization standards. Finally, lead levels, although still high, decreased 30% between 1999 and 2000. Lead pollution is a serious threat to human health because high lead concentrations in the blood can lead to high blood pressure, kidney problems, infertility, decreased I.Q. levels in children, and disorders to the nervous system. The Cairo Air Improvement Project (CAIP), sponsored by EEAA and USAID has, over the past six years, addressed air pollution in metropolitan Cairo at a number of levels. To address fine particle emissions, CAIP instituted vehicular emissions testing, the first of its kind in Africa. CAIP also has pushed the use of compressed natural gas (CNG) as a fuel for municipal buses, private vehicles, and as energy for power plants throughout greater Cairo. As of 2001, 50 municipal buses were using CNG and multiple CNG fueling stations were set up throughout Cairo. A project cosponsored by the Climate Change Action Fund of Canada and EEAA aims to bring CNG motorcycles to Egypt. This will both lower PM10 and SOx emission from motorcycles and decrease their carbon emissions. To date, there are 50 fueling stations dispensing CNG to the 40,000 CNG vehicles in the Cairo metropolitan area. Finally, CAIP has addressed the high levels of lead in Cairo by promoting the use of environmentally friendly technologies at lead smelting plants and by supporting the removal of such facilities away from populated areas. Four smelting plants have been relocated outside of Cairo, and the new facilities are equipped with advanced pollution-control technology to further reduce their lead emissions. CAIP does not address one major cause of urban air pollution--the burning of garbage. Waste incineration in a large city can be easier and less expensive than treating the refuse, compacting it, or removing it from the city. However, fine particles are released when garbage is burned and can contribute to smog and damage human health. Rather than address this issue as an air pollution problem, Wadi Environmental Science Centre Egypt has moved forward on a comprehensive waste management system that should eliminate the need for burning refuse in major cities. In 2000/2001 Egypt began the Integrated Solid Waste Management program to establish the regulatory framework in which effective waste management can operate. Over the past two years the program has progressed such that at the end of 2002 numerous sites were selected for further testing as potential landfills. Carbon and Energy-Related Emissions Egypt's carbon emissions have risen 34% over the period 1990-2001, to 34.3 million metric tons of carbon. Egypt's carbon emissions were less than 0.5% of global emissions in 2001, and while per capita emissions have been increasing since 1950, they are still significantly lower than in most developed countries. In 2001, Egypt emitted 0.5 metric tons of carbon per person, while the United States emitted 5.5 metric tons of carbon per person and the European Union member states averaged 3.1 metric tons per person. While oil (72%) and coal (3%) make up three-quarters of the country's carbon emissions by fuel source, Egypt's growing market for natural gas, which makes up the other quarter, should help slow the increase in carbon emissions. Energy and Carbon Intensity Egypt's energy intensity should fall as the country implements more energy efficiency and conservation programs. In 1997, USAID entered into a 20-year partnership with Egypt and created the Egyptian Environmental Policy Program. With the help of USAID, Egypt has created a National Energy Efficiency Strategy that focused on three goals: (1) Accelerating the use of natural gas rather than oil. (2) Developing national energy efficiency codes and standards. (3) Promoting private investment in energy efficiency activities. Wadi Environmental Science Centre The EEPP estimates that if Egypt can aggressively adopt energy efficient technologies, there could be an annual drop more than 10% drop in annual CO2 emissions by the end of the program. A reduction in carbon emissions growth, combined with a shift of Egypt's energy mix to more natural gas, should help reduce the country's carbon intensity in coming years. In 2001, Egypt's carbon intensity level was 0.42 metric tons of carbon/thousand $1995. Although this level compares favorably with other countries in the region --it is still several times higher than European averages. As Egypt begins to use more natural gas and hydropower, its carbon intensity should fall, perhaps coming closer to the level of the United States (0.17 metric tons of carbon/thousand $1995) or Turkey (0.26). Air quality in the capital of Egypt "The great Cairo" Cairo is an expanding city, which has led to many environmental problems. The air pollution in Cairo is a matter of serious concern. Greater Cairo's volatile aromatic hydrocarbon levels are higher than many other similar cities.[82] Air quality measurements in Cairo have also been recording dangerous levels of lead, carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide, and suspended particulate matter concentrations due to decades of unregulated vehicle emissions, urban industrial operations, and chaff and trash burning. There are over 4,500,000 cars on the streets of Cairo, 60% of which are over 10 years old, and therefore lack modern emission cutting features like catalytic converters. Cairo has a very poor dispersion factor because of lack of rain and its layout of tall buildings and narrow streets, which create a bowl effect. A mysterious black cloud (as Egyptians refer to it) appears over Cairo every fall and causes serious respiratory diseases and eye irritations for the city's citizens. Tourists who are not familiar with such high levels of pollution must take extra care. Cairo also has many unregistered lead and copper smelters which heavily pollute the city. The results of this has been a permanent haze over the city with Wadi Environmental Science Centre particulate matter in the air reaching over three times normal levels. It is estimated that 10,000 to 25,000 people a year in Cairo die due to air pollutionrelated diseases. Lead has been shown to cause harm to the central nervous system and neurotoxicity particularly in children.[84] In 1995, the first environmental acts were introduced and the situation has seen some improvement with 36 air monitoring stations and emissions tests on cars. 20,000 buses have also been commissioned to the city to improve congestion levels, which are very high. Egypt in the 21st Century Environmental awareness in Egypt is slowly increasing through government programs and policies and high-visibility environmental conferences such as the World Summit on Sustainable Development held in Johannesburg in 2002. Although many of Egypt's environmental programs are just beginning to gain momentum, the government's awareness-raising programs are preparing Egyptians to tackle their environmental challenges. Energy and Transportation in Relation to Climate Change Introduction on Energy Situation in Egypt: Egypt’s demand for energy is growing with rate up to 4% annually in general and up to 9% for electric power consumption annually in particular. Year 2010 in particular saw many electrical shortages in particular during the month of Ramadan. The table below shows the most important electric power indicators in Egypt during 2007-2008 which indicate the increasing total energy production from 114260 (KWh) in 2007 to 125145 (KWh) in 2008 . Wadi Environmental Science Centre Egypt is an oil producer and an emerging natural gas exporter. Though net exports of crude oil and petroleum products have declined in recent years, higher prices on world markets and new gas discoveries have pushed Egypt's oil revenues upward. The country also began exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from its first terminal in January 2005, adding another hard-currency revenue stream. Egypt's main energy resources are oil, natural gas, coal and hydro-power, in addition to good potential in renewable energy resources. Oil reserves are estimated at approximately 3.6 billion barrels, most of which are located in the Gulf of Suez. Natural gas is mainly used as feedstock into the Egyptian petrochemical industry and is now used in households and in public transportation. Hydropower is the third major energy resource in Egypt. Most of the Nile's hydropower potential has already been exploited to generate about 13 TWh of electricity per annum, accounting for about 12% of Egypts consumption Electricity and transport contribute over 70 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions in the country. Introduction to Transportation in Egypt The transport sector is a major consumer of fossil fuels and therefore contributes a significant share of the country's emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In 2003–2004 the transport sector was responsible for 29.2% of overall energy consumption and about 31.6 million tonnes of CO2, representing nearly 26% of the energy-related CO2 emissions (OEP, 2004.) Road is the dominant mode of internal transport in both passenger and freight operations. In 2003–2004 the volume of people transported by road had reached nearly 115.6 billion passenger/km, while freight transport amounted to nearly 43.1 billion tonnes/km (State Information Service, 2006.) Wadi Environmental Science Centre For railways, the policy goal is a revitalization of the sector and the development of better service quality by Egyptian National Railways (ENR), which is stateowned and highly subsidized. While rail has a relatively high share of the domestic passenger market, its share of the freight market is very low (only 8 per cent of the total tonnes/km capacity) Egypt's inland waterways, the River Nile and canals, are severely underutilized for transport. Primarily designed as an irrigation system, being used only for 3% in transport . Currently mobile emissions are one of the major sources of air pollution in the country, producing about 25% of Egypt's energy-related CO2 emissions. This is particularly acute in Cairo with 17 million people As part of the national policy to switch from oil to natural gas in all consuming sectors, the use of natural gas as a transportation fuel was endorsed as a means to improve air quality and public health. In the early 1990s the government recognized that utilizing Egypt's abundant natural gas as a transportation fuel could, in addition to developing a new market for natural gas, make a significant contribution towards improving air quality and protecting public health. Egypt is not a major contributor to Climate change with currently 0.5%, but with a growing population and growing demand for energy it may increase rapidly . Country’s mitigation plans Egypt plans by 2020 that 20% of all of energy would be one form of renewable energy. Solar thermal energy expansion like the plans in Koriamat The expansion of photovoltaic cells particularly in remote areas. Wadi Environmental Science Centre Increasing Wind farms such as the ones at Zaafarana, It aims to realize a 7200 MW wind power capacity. And improving energy efficiency within industries Plans for Desertec project (which will mainly sell electricity to Europe( In Transport Cut vehicle emissions (through improved public transportation) CNG as a transport fuel for all public transport Electrification of railways Cairo Underground metro development and expansion to line 3 and 4 Phase out leaded gasoline UNGEF creating a pilot of electric and hybrid buses Where the Egyptian government stands on Climate Change Challenges and Fields of Priority 1- Sea level rise [SLR] 2- Water resources deficiency 3- Agricultural crops deficiency and extinction Egyptian views towards Climate Change The Egyptian government firmly believes that current and expected climate change derives from industrial activities undertaken by developed countries since the industrial revolution until the present day The Egyptian government adamantly refuses any negotiations that could result in any commitment on developing countries regarding Greenhouse gases reduction according to the United Nations Framework Convention and Kyoto Protocol Wadi Environmental Science Centre Other official positions adopted by the Egyptian government stem from the aforementioned stances, including refusing the Russian proposal regarding voluntary commitment on developing countries to reduce their Greenhouse gases emissions, stressing the importance of the responsibility of developed countries toward reducing their input of Greenhouse gases emissions and providing support, be it financial or technical, to developing countries in their struggle against Greenhouse gases and Climate Change Egyptian efforts in dealing with Climate Change Ratifications Ratification of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC] Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol Legislation and establishment efforts Issuance of Law 4/1994 for the Protection of the Environment Establishment of the Egyptian Designated National Authority for Clean Development Mechanism [The CDM allows emission-reduction projects in developing countries to earn certified emission reduction (CER) credits, each equivalent to one ton of CO2. These CERs can be traded and sold, and used by industrialized countries to a meet a part of their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol. The mechanism stimulates sustainable development and emission reductions, while giving industrialized countries some flexibility in how they meet their emission reduction limitation targets. The CDM is the main source of income for the UNFCCC Adaptation Fund, which was established to finance adaptation projects and programs in developing country Parties to the Kyoto Protocol that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. The Adaptation Fund is financed by a 2% levy on CERs issued by the CDM.]12 12 http://cdm.unfccc.int/about/index.html Wadi Environmental Science Centre Issuance of the Initial National Communication [INN] in 1999 to: - Make an inventory for Greenhouse gases - Found a National Action Plan for Climate Change Restructuring of the National Committee of Climate Change in 2007, as coordinator on the national level related to climate change issues, putting a visionary for needed policies and strategies to deal with it, and suggesting mechanisms required for implementation Ministerial efforts Ministry of Electricity and Energy Establishment of several projects in the field of new and renewable energy [Wind – Solar – Hydro – Bio] and encouraging energy efficiency projects Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation Implementing projects for shore protection [Egyptian Public Authority for Shore Protection], also the establishment of specialized research centers in cooperation with development partners Agriculture Research Center Carrying out some researches about the impact of climate change on crops production and adoption of more heat-tolerant cultivars Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs . Establishing guiding schemes for the private sector to encourage investments in the field of clean energy projects, waste recycling, and forestation . Preparing Egypt’s second national communication, as a base for updating the National Action Plan, and Greenhouse Gases Inventory from different sectors . Providing environmental training targeting: Senior and middle management Environment officials in institutions Wadi Environmental Science Centre Technicians, chemists, and engineers. The topics covered are: Inspection and environmental records Management of environmental crises and disasters Self-monitoring and laboratory measurement Management of hazardous substances Environmental protection. [These trainings begin in 2011] Awareness Programs Bezra Program Bezra program is a joint initiative between the Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs and DANIDA aiming at increasing environmental awareness amongst children, using the “Bezra” cartoon character to relay environmental information through a comprehensive collection of media [Website, magazine and printed material, awareness campaigns, promotional methods, etc.], in order to fulfill the Ministry’s goal of increasing environmental awareness. The target audience for this program is the following: Children aged between 6 and 12 Parents, teachers, and librarians Preschoolers aged between 4 and 6 and their surrounding environment The Green Corner The Green Corner is a project established under the auspices of the Egyptian First Lady Susan Mubarak. The project aims at introducing environmental education and culture to Egyptian children and youth by created green corners in libraries that served the aforementioned purpose. The project started out with 25 libraries and has extended to contain 50 libraries in the different governorates in Egypt. Resources Wadi Environmental Science Centre Elsharkawy H., Rashed H., & Rached I., The impacts of SLR on Egypt, 45th ISOCARP Congress 2009 http://research.fit.edu/sealevelriselibrary/documents/doc_mgr/387/Egypt_Adaptation_to_SLR__Raey_et_al._1999.pdf M. El Raey*, Kh. Dewidar, M. El Hattab Institute of Graduate Studies and Research, University of Alexandria, Alexandria, Egypt http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/egync1.pdf/ http://archive.greenpeace.org/climate/science/reports/desertification.html - http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_are_some_of_the_causes_of_ecological_imbalance - http://www.egyptvoyager.com/redsea_formation_ecosystem.htm - http://www.indexmundi.com/egypt/environment_current_issues.html - Ecosystem Responses to Global Climate Change: Moving beyond Color Mapping by Oswald J. Schmitz, Eric Post, Catherine E. Burns, Kevin M. Johnston, BioScience, Vol. 53, No. 12 (Dec., 2003), pp. 1199-1205. - Imbalance of Ecosystems and Its Effect on Public and Livestock Health by Dr. Kedar Karki M.V.St. http://www.scribd.com/doc/3293025/Imbalance-of-Ecosystems-and-Its-Effect-on-Public-andLivestock-Health1-dockb - There Is No Mother Nature: There Is No Balance of Nature: Culture, Ecology and Conservation - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/03/shark-attacks-sharm-el-sheikh-egypt?INTCMP=SRCH Author(s): Dennis E. Jelinski. Source: Human Ecology, Vol. 33, No. 2 (Apr., 2005), pp. 271-288 - http://www.enn.com/top_stories/article/22263 - http://www.climate.org/topics/international-action/egypt.html - Environment and Natural Resource Management Ecohealth/ Rural Poverty and Environment AgroEcology West of Lake Nasser: Towards a Sustainable Livelihoods Strategy (IDRC project No. 102376) - http://dprbcn.wordpress.com/2010/04/29/manufactured-landscapes-and-the-ecosystem-the-aswandam-toshka-project/ - http://www.greenprophet.com/2010/12/egypt-killed-sharks/ - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-1337507/Sharm-El-Sheikh-shark-attacks-Beach-reopnesdespite-hunt-killer-whitetip.html The Ministry of State for Environmental affairs website: http://www.eeaa.gov.eg/English/main/about.asp Egypt’s policies and Measures for Sustainable Transport http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-132146-201-1DO_TOPIC.html Wadi Environmental Science Centre