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Technological Singularity
Jane-Valeriane Kimberly Boua
When Machines and Man Will become One
Math 89S Duke University
January 2016
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INTRODUCTION
Technological singularity seems to be a theory of science ficition. A movie released in
2014, featuring Johnny Depp, tackles the idea of technological singularity, a situation in which
man and robot become one. In the film, Dr. Will Caster, a renowned researcher played by Johnny
Depp, is working on a quantum computer, PINN, (Physically Independent Neural Network) that
functions in the same way as a human brain. In the film, Dr. Will Caster is shot with a bullet
laced with a radioactive element, and is given 1 month to live. In a plight to save her husbands
life, Dr. Caster’s wife, Evelyn, “uploads” her husband’s consciousness to the machine. The film
raises many philosophical questions such as, what does it mean to be self- aware, and can a
machine ever reach self-awareness? The film attempts to address many issues that are involved
in defining self-awareness by creating a scenario in which singularity is reached. PINN creates a
disastrous climate on earth. The machine initially appears to be contained within the
consciousness of Dr. Will Caster, but soon, the computer expands globally, as it aims at gaining
more power, until the “computer” controls all walks of life, including humans, water, animals,
viruses, to the point where it occupies the consciousness of other human beings. The computer
becomes so intelligent, that it can create new human beings, cure any illness, and fix practically
any problem.
Science fiction novels and films have attempted to explain the many possibilities, often
times catastrophic, that can result from artificial intelligence (AI). A quote by I.J. Good, a
cryptologist and mathematician, who coined the term singularity, defines what a super intelligent
machine could mean for the future of the human race. “Thus the first ultra intelligent machine is
the last invention that man need make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how
to keep it under control.”(Good). The quote also presents a paradox. How are we supposed to
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keep an ultra intelligent machine under control, if it has been created to be more intelligent than
us? It it even possible to create an ultra intelligent machine?
MOORE’S LAW
Moore’s law was a prediction made by co-founder of Intel, Gordon Moore, that said that
the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit will double approximately every two years
for a few decades. A transistor is used in modern day technology such as radios, calculators, and
computers. The inventors of the transistor were even given a Nobel Prize (Nobel Media). The
exponential increase as predicated by Gordon Moore has held true for the past few years. In
1965, when he first made the prediction, a micro chip had 64 transistors. The latest chip that had
been released by Intel at the time of the article had 28 million transistors (Mann). Many
predicted the end of Moore’s Law in 2000, yet it has held steady. In fact, the iPhone 6S’s A8
chip has 2 billion transistors (Apple). Moore’s law is trivial to the advancement of technology
today. Manufacturers used Moore’s law to set goals for the industry as to make predictions as to
where they should be in terms of the processing power of chips. The end of Moore’s law seems
to be far off, but when is stops being true, it’s seems the exponential increase in the power of
technology that is predicted by scientist will be far off. Moore’s Law has been used used
countless times to predict the ever increasing power of technology and singularity.
THE HISTORY OF TECHONOLOGY SINGULARITY
Many theorists believe that technological singularity is coming sooner than society may
be prepared for. Technological singularity has been theorized as early as the 18th century. One of
the earliest contenders of technological singularity is Marquis de Condorcet, an 18th century
French Mathematician. He states, “Nature has set no term to the perfection of human faculties;
that the perfectibility of man is indefinite; and that the progress of this perfectibility…. has no
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other limit than the duration of the globe upon which nature has cast us.” (Mission). In the 19th
century, an editor by the name of Richard Thornton made the following comments on the
scholarly deficits of the use of a calculator,” …by turning a crank, grind out the solution of a
problem without the fatigue of mental application, would by its introduction in to schools, do
incalculable injury.” But who knows that such machines when brought to greater perfection, may
not think of a plan to remedy all their own defects and then grind out ideas beyond the ken of
mortal mind!” Countless theorist have touched upon the fast acceleration of technology up until
the 1950’s and 1960’s when singularity theories really began to take leverage. An individual by
the name of Alan Turing was a strong proponent of technological singularity. He is best known
for having broken the Nazi enigma code that won the Allies WWII. He wrote an essay titled
“Intelligent Machinery, A Heretical Theory” and in it he states, “once the machine thinking
method had started, it would not take long to outstrip our feeble powers.” (Turing). Many
individuals have taken these ideas from individuals like Turing and have formed institutions
around this idea.
SINGULARITY UNIVERSITY
Singularity University is a corporation in Silicon Valley that initially started as a summer
program, but grew into a “think tank” that offers educational programs and focuses on the
scientific progress of exponential technologies. The mission of Singularity University is to
“educate, inspire, and empower leaders to apply exponential technologies to address humanity’s
grand challenges.” (Singularity). The institution was based off of Ray Kurzweil’s theory of
technological singularity. His theory states that by the year 2045, we will have achieved
technological singularity. Kurzweil believes that by the year 2020, we will have a machine that
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mimics the objective processes of the human brain and by the year 2045, we will have machines
that mimic the subjective experiences of the human brain and will be “self-aware”.
The institution has meetings for many programs for entrepreneurs, executives, future
leaders, and technologists around the world. It appears that the university enlists many different
individuals from multiple different faucets of academia including Neuroscience, Design, Energy,
and Policy, Law, and Ethics. Singularity University is preparing society for the advantages that
could result from Artificial Intelligence.
EFFORTS TO CREATE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Experts say that the first artificial intelligence and singularity with be achieved in the year
before 2045. An article written recently by Wall Street Journal highlights the possibilities that it
may be achieved with Artificial Intelligence with an IQ of 150 (0.01% of the population will
have this score) that could be downloaded like an app is in the process of being developed.
“[Artificial Intelligence] will read your email and write responses, awaiting your nod to send
them. They will escort your tax return… They will murmur (from your collar maybe) that the
sidewalk is icier than it looks, a friend is approaching across the street, your gait is slightly odd –
have you hurt your back…. They will answer your phone and tactfully pass on messages, adding
any reminders that might help.” (Gelernter).
In recent news, a computer program named AlphaGo defeated longtime champion of the
game Go, Lee Sedol in a match (Yu). Go is a game more complicated than chess, that involves
two players placing tiles on a 19x19 board. Lee Sedol is a reigning champion of Go, with 18
international titles (Yu). The computer software, AlphaGo, was developed by Google, has
defeated multiple human opponents, but hadn’t beat an opponent of Sedol’s caliber. The
intelligence of AlphaGo is a prime example of the infinite possibilities that come with such
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powerful technology. AlphaGo and technology of the like may have to capabilities to take tasks
and jobs we do today and complete them more efficiently than we could ever imagine. The
problem with AlphaGo is that it’s task is highly specialized. It was designed for this sole
purpose. Creating technology more versatile will be a challenge.
A new, eerily realistic, robot named Sophia was presented at SXSW in Austin, Texas this
past week. The robot can mimic 62 human facial expressions, has voice recognition, and cameras
in her eyes so that she can recognize faces, as well as remember encounters. The hope is that
over time, she will become more and more intelligent. Her creator, David Hanson, CEO of
Hanson Robotics, has been working on human like robots for decades, and predicts that in the
near future, robots like Sophia will walk freely among us, help us, talk to us, and be our friends.
In a video (linked below) in which David Hanson demonstrates Sophia’s capabilities, he explains
that he develops extremely life like robots that would be used in health care, therapy, education
and customer service opportunities. There are many societal benefits of human-like artificial
intelligence. The possibilities of artificial technology seem endless.
TURING TEST
The Turing Test was a test developed by Alan Turing in the 1950’s that could be used to
test a machines ability to show intelligent behavior. The test suggests that, in effect, the machine
can be indistinguishable from a human. Turing proposes that a human evaluator would judge the
conversation between a human and a machine that generates human-like responses. The
evaluator is aware that one is a machine and one is a human, but the evaluator is separated from
the machine and the human involved in the conversation. The channel in which the conversation
is evaluated would be limited to channel in which the conversation would be read on a computer
screen, so that the evaluator would not be able to identify which is human and which is the
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machine, by the sound of the text. If the evaluator cannot distinguish between the machine and
the human, then the machine has passed the test. Turing has suggested in the past that if human
incorrectly identifies the machine as the human 70% of the time in 5 minutes, then the machine
has passed the test.
In June, 2014, it had been rumored that a machine named Eugene Goostman that
simulates a 13-year-old Ukrainian boy had passed the test fooling 10 out of the 30 judges into
believing that the simulation was actually a boy. Critics argue that Eugene did not pass the
Turing Test, since the Turing Test was supposed to predict whether or not a machine is
“thinking”. Critics argue that Eugene was not thinking, simply anticipating the responses that
would ensue, and commenting based on what they were. The software was simply able to predict
the responses of the judges very well. The definition of thinking, or the behavior humans use to
conduct a conversation has been fuzzy. It seems Turing was not trying to define “thinking” or
“intelligence” rather predict whether or not the patterns in human behavior could be simulated by
a machine.
WHAT THE FUTURE COULD LOOK LIKE
Ray Kurzweil, a leading investigator in artificial intelligence, has famously made many
bold predictions about what the future will look like in some of his best selling books including,
“The Age of Intelligent Machines” released in 1990, “The Age of Spiritual Machines” published
in 1999, “The Singularity is Near” published in 2005. Many of the predictions made are
somewhat accurate to what has actual happened in the advancement of technology. In his first
book released in 1990, he predicted machines that would be capable of answering questions by
accessing information wirelessly. He also predicts that between 2020 and 2050, we will have 3
dimensional holograms in conversation, and that there will be a New World government, and
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that a machine will have passed the Turing Test. Many skeptics criticize Kurzweil’s predictions
claiming the predictions lack scientific sustenance. Various meetings and conferences have been
held by individuals to discuss the possibility of artificial intelligence. In February 2009, a
meeting was held under the purview of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial
Intelligence. During the conference, they discussed the possibility of robots becoming selfsufficient and making autonomous decisions. It appears that almost all leaders in artificial
intelligence can agree that the future will be radically different that it is today.
WHAT ARE THE CRITICS SAYING?
Many are skeptic about those who believe singularity is coming soon. Martin Ford, who
wrote a book titled “The Lights of the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the
Economy of the Future.”, is skeptical about the development of artificial technology. In it, he
states that singularity will not be reached until automated tasks that are performed by humans
today are replaced by machines, which would cause a massive escalation in unemployment. Joan
Slonczewki and Adam Gopnik argue that singularity will be very gradual, not the rapid
exponential change we are expecting. They argue that over time, machines will take tasks and
abilities we currently do, and once they do, we will begin to define them as inhumane, tasks that
only machines operate. Until, overtime, there is little that defines what a human does. Otherwise
known as Mitochondrial Singularity, over time the “human being” may only exist to turn the
machine on.
Others believe that the rate of technological advance has ceased to rise and is even
declining, although Moore’s law continues to hold steady. In 2011, Paul Allen wrote an article
criticizing futurist like Ray Kurzweil who believe that technological singularity is near. Allen
claims that it is highly unlikely that singularity will arrive by 2045, which is based on the
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continuing exponential growth in the change of technology. The exponential change in
technology is predicted by Kurzweil in his analysis “The Law of Accelerating Returns” (Allen).
It seems that the skeptics back their evidence with scientific reasoning as opposed to than with
the individuals who predict that artificial intelligence will come during our lifetime. Progress is
being made constantly on the mechanisms that make of the human brain. It will be a long time
before these mechanisms can be mimicked.
SUMMARY
Technological Singularity has been studied in discussed in academia for centuries.
Countless mathematicians and engineers has seriously discussed the coming singularity.
Moore’s law, which was created by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, predicted the rapid rise
in the power of technology that we see today. As early as the 17th century, theorists have been
predicting the exponential increase in technology that is being experienced to the point where a
“University” or think tank in Silicon Valley was created on these theories. Technological
singularity, appears to want to use AI technology to solve some the worlds biggest problems in
education, food, and health. There are countless innovators who are aiming at creating artificial
intelligence. For instance, AlphaGo, which was developed by innovators at Google to play a
chess like game named Go, defeated a reigning champion, Lee Sedol, in a match. Developers at
Hanson Robotics has created countless hyper realistic robots, most recently Sophia, in hopes that
she will become smarter over time. Also, many predictions have been made as to where this
technology could go. Countless innovations claiming to have created the next artificial
intelligence, and Turing’s Test is designed to test if a machine is truly intelligent. Claims of a
machine having passed the Turing Test, like Eugene Goostman, have quickly been shot down, as
critics argue that Eugene was not an “intelligent” machine. There are countless critics who are
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skeptical of this type of technology and how quickly theorists are predicting that it will come, but
it seems like it is coming very fast.
CONCLUSION
Many people believe that technological singularity is coming fast. The likelihood of ever
creating such technology, appears to be slim, at least in our lifetime. Achieving such a complex
machine is way more complicated than many of technological singularities proponents make it
out to be. The current efforts at creating technology that can think and feel is very far fetched.
Society has not yet scratch the surface as to what makes us human, what our consciousness is, or
what it means to be “self-aware”, to let alone mimic. If technology of the nature that some
theorists are suggesting, it would be very beneficial to mankind, as innovators at Technological
Singularity hope. It does not seem plausible that this sort of technology would be available in
homes and used in every day life any time soon. Maybe not even in our life times. Martin Ford, a
critic of some theories of Artificial Intelligence, claims that artificial intelligence of the caliber
individuals like Ray Kurzweil are claiming will be created by 2045, is far-fetched. The type of
artificial technology that is depicted in science fiction films such as Transcendence will be a
while before it is reached.
Will Technological singularity mark the beginning of a new era? As a society, we cannot
rule out this possibility. Will artificial intelligence change the way the world operates in the next
20 years? It seems almost certain that it will.
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WORKS CITED
Allen, Paul. "Paul Allen: The Singularity Isn't Near." MIT Technology Review. 12 Oct. 2011.
Web. 26 Mar. 2016.
"Apple’s A8 SoC Analyzed: The IPhone 6 Chip Is a 2-billion-transistor 20nm Monster |
ExtremeTech." ExtremeTech. Web. 26 Mar. 2016.
"Defeated Go Champion Lee Sedol Wants a Rematch against Alpha Go." The Independent.
Independent Digital News and Media. Web. 28 Mar. 2016.
Fedde, Corey. "Robot Sophia Could Be a Glimpse into the Future ( Video)." The Christian
Science Monitor. The Christian Science Monitor, 23 Mar. 2016. Web. 28 Mar. 2016.
Gelernter, David. "Machines That Think and Feel." Machines That Think and Feel. Wall Street
Journal. Web. 20 Mar. 2016.
Good, Irving John. "Speculations concerning the first ultraintelligent machine." Advances in
computers 6.99 (1965): 31-83.
Mann, Charles C. "The End of Moore's Law?" MIT Technology Review. MIT, 1 May 2000. Web.
18 Mar. 2016.
"Mission." Singularity Summit Australia RSS. Singularity Summit Australia. Web. 20 Mar. 2016.
The Nobel Prize in Physics 1956". Nobelprize.org. Nobel Media AB 2014. Web. 18 Mar 2016.
http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/physics/laureates/1956/
Machinery, Computing. "Computing machinery and intelligence-AM Turing." Mind 59.236
(1950): 433.
"So, What Is SU? - Singularity University." Singularity University. Web. 27 Mar. 2016.
Turing, A. M. "Intelligent Machinery, A Heretical Theory*." Philosophia Mathematica 4.3
(1996): 256-60. Web. 20 Mar. 2016.
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Yu, Howard. "What AlphaGo's Win Means for Your Job." Fortune What AlphaGos Win Means
for Your Job Comments. Fortune, 21 Mar. 2016. Web. 28 Mar. 2016.
(Link to Video on Singularity ft. Elon Musk)
http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2015/09/10/elon-musk-artificialintelligence.cnnmoney/index.html?sr=fbmoney032316elon-musk-artificialintelligence0620PMVideoVideo&linkId=22592816
(Link to Video on Sophia)
https://www.youtubce.com/watch?v=W0_DPi0PmF0