Download Eliezer Yudkowsky Singularity Institute for AI

The Human Importance of the
Intelligence Explosion
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
singinst.org
"Intelligence explosion:"
• Concept invented by I. J. Good (famous
name in Bayesian statistics) in 1965.
• Hypothesis: The smarter you are, the
more creativity you can apply to the task of
making yourself even smarter.
• Prediction: Positive feedback cycle rapidly
leading to superintelligence.
(Good, I. J. 1965. Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine.
Pp. 31-88 in Advances in Computers, 6, F. L. Alt and M. Rubinoff, eds. New
York: Academic Press.)
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
Intelligence explosion hypothesis
does not imply, nor require:
• More change occurred from 1970 to 2000
than from 1940 to 1970.
• Technological progress follows a
predictable curve.
• Does not even require that "Real AI" is
possible! (An intelligence explosion could
happen with augmented humans.)
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
"Book smarts" vs. cognition:
"Book smarts" evokes
images of:
Other stuff that happens
in the brain:
• Calculus
• Chess
• Good recall of facts
•
•
•
•
•
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Social persuasion
Enthusiasm
Reading faces
Rationality
Strategic ability
Singularity Institute for AI
The scale of intelligent minds:
a parochial view.
Village idiot
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Einstein
Singularity Institute for AI
The scale of intelligent minds:
a parochial view.
Village idiot
Einstein
A more cosmopolitan view:
Mouse Village idiot
Chimp Einstein
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
The power of intelligence:
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•
•
•
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•
Fire
Language
Nuclear weapons
Skyscrapers
Spaceships
Money
Science
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
One of these things
is not like the other...
• Space travel
• Extended lifespans
Eliezer Yudkowsky
• Artificial Intelligence
• Nanofactories
Singularity Institute for AI
Intelligence:
• The most powerful force in the known
universe - see effects every day
• Most confusing question in today's science
- ask ten scientists, get ten answers
• Not complete mystery – huge library of
knowledge about mind / brain / cognition –
but scattered across dozens of different
fields!
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
If I am ignorant about a phenomenon,
this is a fact about my state of mind,
not a fact about the phenomenon.
Confusion exists in the mind, not in reality.
There are mysterious questions.
Never mysterious answers.
(Inspired by Jaynes, E.T. 2003. Probability Theory: The Logic of Science.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.)
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
For more about intelligence:
• Go to http://singinst.org/
(Or google "Singularity Institute")
• Click on "Summit Notes"
• Lecture video, book chapters
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
The brain's biological bottleneck:
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•
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Neurons run at 100Hz
No read access
No write access
No new neurons
Existing code not human-readable
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
Relative difficulty:
• Build a Boeing
747 from scratch.
Eliezer Yudkowsky
• Starting with a bird,
• Modify the design to
create a 747-sized bird,
• That actually flies,
• As fast as a 747,
• Then migrate actual living
bird to new design,
• Without killing the bird or
making it very unhappy.
Singularity Institute for AI
The AI Advantage
(for self-improvement)
• Total read/write access to own state
• Absorb more hardware
(possibly orders of magnitude more!)
• Understandable code
• Modular design
• Clean internal environment
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
Biological bottleneck
(for serial speed)
• Lightspeed >106 times faster than axons,
dendrites.
• Synaptic spike dissipates >106 minimum
heat (though transistors do worse)
• Transistor clock speed >>106 times faster
than neuron spiking frequency
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
Mouse Village idiot
Chimp Einstein
• Physically possible to build brain at least
1,000,000 times as fast as human brain
• Even without shrinking brain, lowering
temperature, quantum computing, etc...
• Drexler's Nanosystems says sensorimotor
speedup of >>106 also possible
• 1 year → 31 seconds
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
10,000 years to nanotech?
(for superintelligence)
• Solve chosen special case of protein folding
• Order custom proteins from online labs with
72-hour turnaround time
• Proteins self-assemble to primitive device
that takes acoustic instructions
• Use to build 2nd-stage nanotech, 3rd-stage
nanotech, etc.
• Total time: 10,000 years ~ 4 days
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
Respect the power of creativity
and be careful what you call
"impossible".
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
Huntergatherers
Ancient
Greeks
Agriculture
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Industrial
Revolution
Renaissance
Nuclear, Space,
Computer, Biotech,
Internet Revolutions
Electrical
Revolution
Molecular
nanotechnology
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Huntergatherers
Ancient
Greeks
Agriculture
Industrial
Revolution
Renaissance
Nuclear, Space,
Computer, Biotech,
Internet Revolutions
Electrical
Revolution
Molecular
nanotechnology
vs.
Bees
Hunter-gatherers
Chimps Internet
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
Can an intelligence explosion
be avoided?
• Self-amplifying once it starts to tip over
• Very difficult to avoid in the long run
• But many possible short-term delays
• Argument: A human-level civilization
occupies an unstable state; will eventually
wander into a superintelligent region or an
extinct region.
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
Fallacy of the Giant Cheesecake
• Major premise: A superintelligence could
create a mile-high cheesecake.
• Minor premise: Someone will create a
recursively self-improving AI.
• Conclusion: The future will be full of giant
cheesecakes.
Power does not imply motive.
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
Fallacy of the Giant Cheesecake
• Major premise: A superintelligence could
create a mile-high cheesecake.
• Minor premise: Someone will create a
recursively self-improving AI.
• Conclusion: The future will be full of giant
cheesecakes.
Power does not imply motive.
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
Spot the missing premise:
• A sufficiently powerful
AI could wipe out
humanity.
• Therefore we should
not build AI.
Eliezer Yudkowsky
• A sufficiently powerful
AI could develop new
medical technologies
and save millions of
lives.
• Therefore, build AI.
Singularity Institute for AI
Spot the missing premise:
• A sufficiently powerful
AI could wipe out
humanity.
• [And the AI would
decide to do so.]
• Therefore we should
not build AI.
Eliezer Yudkowsky
• A sufficiently powerful
AI could develop new
medical technologies
and save millions of
lives.
• [And the AI would
decide to do so.]
• Therefore, build AI.
Singularity Institute for AI
Design space of
minds-in-general
Bipping AIs
Freepy AIs
Gloopy AIs
All human minds
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
AI isn't a prediction problem,
it's an engineering problem.
We have to reach into mind design
space, and pull out a mind such that
we're glad we created it...
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
AI isn't a prediction problem,
it's an engineering problem.
We have to reach into mind design
space, and pull out a mind such that
we're glad we created it...
Challenge is difficult and technical!
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
"Do not propose solutions until the problem has been
discussed as thoroughly as possible without
suggesting any."
-- Norman R. F. Maier
"I have often used this edict with groups I have led particularly when they face a very tough problem,
which is when group members are most apt to
propose solutions immediately."
-- Robyn Dawes
(Dawes, R.M. 1988. Rational Choice in an Uncertain World.
San Diego, CA: Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich.)
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
What kind of AI do we want to see?
Much easier to describe AIs
we don't want to see...
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
"Friendly AI"...
(the challenge of creating an AI
that, e.g., cures cancer, rather
than wiping out humanity)
...looks possible but very difficult.
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
The intelligence explosion:
Enough power to...
make the world a better place?
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
Someday,
the human species
has to grow up.
Why not sooner
rather than later?
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
In a hundred million years,
no one's going to care
who won the World Series,
but they'll remember the first AI.
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Singularity Institute for AI
For more information, please
visit the Singularity Institute at
http://singinst.org/