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Technological Singularity Jane-Valeriane Kimberly Boua When Machines and Man Will become One Math 89S Duke University January 2016 Boua 2 INTRODUCTION Technological singularity seems to be a theory of science ficition. A movie released in 2014, featuring Johnny Depp, tackles the idea of technological singularity, a situation in which man and robot become one. In the film, Dr. Will Caster, a renowned researcher played by Johnny Depp, is working on a quantum computer, PINN, (Physically Independent Neural Network) that functions in the same way as a human brain. In the film, Dr. Will Caster is shot with a bullet laced with a radioactive element, and is given 1 month to live. In a plight to save her husbands life, Dr. Caster’s wife, Evelyn, “uploads” her husband’s consciousness to the machine. The film raises many philosophical questions such as, what does it mean to be self- aware, and can a machine ever reach self-awareness? The film attempts to address many issues that are involved in defining self-awareness by creating a scenario in which singularity is reached. PINN creates a disastrous climate on earth. The machine initially appears to be contained within the consciousness of Dr. Will Caster, but soon, the computer expands globally, as it aims at gaining more power, until the “computer” controls all walks of life, including humans, water, animals, viruses, to the point where it occupies the consciousness of other human beings. The computer becomes so intelligent, that it can create new human beings, cure any illness, and fix practically any problem. Science fiction novels and films have attempted to explain the many possibilities, often times catastrophic, that can result from artificial intelligence (AI). A quote by I.J. Good, a cryptologist and mathematician, who coined the term singularity, defines what a super intelligent machine could mean for the future of the human race. “Thus the first ultra intelligent machine is the last invention that man need make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.”(Good). The quote also presents a paradox. How are we supposed to Boua 3 keep an ultra intelligent machine under control, if it has been created to be more intelligent than us? It it even possible to create an ultra intelligent machine? MOORE’S LAW Moore’s law was a prediction made by co-founder of Intel, Gordon Moore, that said that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit will double approximately every two years for a few decades. A transistor is used in modern day technology such as radios, calculators, and computers. The inventors of the transistor were even given a Nobel Prize (Nobel Media). The exponential increase as predicated by Gordon Moore has held true for the past few years. In 1965, when he first made the prediction, a micro chip had 64 transistors. The latest chip that had been released by Intel at the time of the article had 28 million transistors (Mann). Many predicted the end of Moore’s Law in 2000, yet it has held steady. In fact, the iPhone 6S’s A8 chip has 2 billion transistors (Apple). Moore’s law is trivial to the advancement of technology today. Manufacturers used Moore’s law to set goals for the industry as to make predictions as to where they should be in terms of the processing power of chips. The end of Moore’s law seems to be far off, but when is stops being true, it’s seems the exponential increase in the power of technology that is predicted by scientist will be far off. Moore’s Law has been used used countless times to predict the ever increasing power of technology and singularity. THE HISTORY OF TECHONOLOGY SINGULARITY Many theorists believe that technological singularity is coming sooner than society may be prepared for. Technological singularity has been theorized as early as the 18th century. One of the earliest contenders of technological singularity is Marquis de Condorcet, an 18th century French Mathematician. He states, “Nature has set no term to the perfection of human faculties; that the perfectibility of man is indefinite; and that the progress of this perfectibility…. has no Boua 4 other limit than the duration of the globe upon which nature has cast us.” (Mission). In the 19th century, an editor by the name of Richard Thornton made the following comments on the scholarly deficits of the use of a calculator,” …by turning a crank, grind out the solution of a problem without the fatigue of mental application, would by its introduction in to schools, do incalculable injury.” But who knows that such machines when brought to greater perfection, may not think of a plan to remedy all their own defects and then grind out ideas beyond the ken of mortal mind!” Countless theorist have touched upon the fast acceleration of technology up until the 1950’s and 1960’s when singularity theories really began to take leverage. An individual by the name of Alan Turing was a strong proponent of technological singularity. He is best known for having broken the Nazi enigma code that won the Allies WWII. He wrote an essay titled “Intelligent Machinery, A Heretical Theory” and in it he states, “once the machine thinking method had started, it would not take long to outstrip our feeble powers.” (Turing). Many individuals have taken these ideas from individuals like Turing and have formed institutions around this idea. SINGULARITY UNIVERSITY Singularity University is a corporation in Silicon Valley that initially started as a summer program, but grew into a “think tank” that offers educational programs and focuses on the scientific progress of exponential technologies. The mission of Singularity University is to “educate, inspire, and empower leaders to apply exponential technologies to address humanity’s grand challenges.” (Singularity). The institution was based off of Ray Kurzweil’s theory of technological singularity. His theory states that by the year 2045, we will have achieved technological singularity. Kurzweil believes that by the year 2020, we will have a machine that Boua 5 mimics the objective processes of the human brain and by the year 2045, we will have machines that mimic the subjective experiences of the human brain and will be “self-aware”. The institution has meetings for many programs for entrepreneurs, executives, future leaders, and technologists around the world. It appears that the university enlists many different individuals from multiple different faucets of academia including Neuroscience, Design, Energy, and Policy, Law, and Ethics. Singularity University is preparing society for the advantages that could result from Artificial Intelligence. EFFORTS TO CREATE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Experts say that the first artificial intelligence and singularity with be achieved in the year before 2045. An article written recently by Wall Street Journal highlights the possibilities that it may be achieved with Artificial Intelligence with an IQ of 150 (0.01% of the population will have this score) that could be downloaded like an app is in the process of being developed. “[Artificial Intelligence] will read your email and write responses, awaiting your nod to send them. They will escort your tax return… They will murmur (from your collar maybe) that the sidewalk is icier than it looks, a friend is approaching across the street, your gait is slightly odd – have you hurt your back…. They will answer your phone and tactfully pass on messages, adding any reminders that might help.” (Gelernter). In recent news, a computer program named AlphaGo defeated longtime champion of the game Go, Lee Sedol in a match (Yu). Go is a game more complicated than chess, that involves two players placing tiles on a 19x19 board. Lee Sedol is a reigning champion of Go, with 18 international titles (Yu). The computer software, AlphaGo, was developed by Google, has defeated multiple human opponents, but hadn’t beat an opponent of Sedol’s caliber. The intelligence of AlphaGo is a prime example of the infinite possibilities that come with such Boua 6 powerful technology. AlphaGo and technology of the like may have to capabilities to take tasks and jobs we do today and complete them more efficiently than we could ever imagine. The problem with AlphaGo is that it’s task is highly specialized. It was designed for this sole purpose. Creating technology more versatile will be a challenge. A new, eerily realistic, robot named Sophia was presented at SXSW in Austin, Texas this past week. The robot can mimic 62 human facial expressions, has voice recognition, and cameras in her eyes so that she can recognize faces, as well as remember encounters. The hope is that over time, she will become more and more intelligent. Her creator, David Hanson, CEO of Hanson Robotics, has been working on human like robots for decades, and predicts that in the near future, robots like Sophia will walk freely among us, help us, talk to us, and be our friends. In a video (linked below) in which David Hanson demonstrates Sophia’s capabilities, he explains that he develops extremely life like robots that would be used in health care, therapy, education and customer service opportunities. There are many societal benefits of human-like artificial intelligence. The possibilities of artificial technology seem endless. TURING TEST The Turing Test was a test developed by Alan Turing in the 1950’s that could be used to test a machines ability to show intelligent behavior. The test suggests that, in effect, the machine can be indistinguishable from a human. Turing proposes that a human evaluator would judge the conversation between a human and a machine that generates human-like responses. The evaluator is aware that one is a machine and one is a human, but the evaluator is separated from the machine and the human involved in the conversation. The channel in which the conversation is evaluated would be limited to channel in which the conversation would be read on a computer screen, so that the evaluator would not be able to identify which is human and which is the Boua 7 machine, by the sound of the text. If the evaluator cannot distinguish between the machine and the human, then the machine has passed the test. Turing has suggested in the past that if human incorrectly identifies the machine as the human 70% of the time in 5 minutes, then the machine has passed the test. In June, 2014, it had been rumored that a machine named Eugene Goostman that simulates a 13-year-old Ukrainian boy had passed the test fooling 10 out of the 30 judges into believing that the simulation was actually a boy. Critics argue that Eugene did not pass the Turing Test, since the Turing Test was supposed to predict whether or not a machine is “thinking”. Critics argue that Eugene was not thinking, simply anticipating the responses that would ensue, and commenting based on what they were. The software was simply able to predict the responses of the judges very well. The definition of thinking, or the behavior humans use to conduct a conversation has been fuzzy. It seems Turing was not trying to define “thinking” or “intelligence” rather predict whether or not the patterns in human behavior could be simulated by a machine. WHAT THE FUTURE COULD LOOK LIKE Ray Kurzweil, a leading investigator in artificial intelligence, has famously made many bold predictions about what the future will look like in some of his best selling books including, “The Age of Intelligent Machines” released in 1990, “The Age of Spiritual Machines” published in 1999, “The Singularity is Near” published in 2005. Many of the predictions made are somewhat accurate to what has actual happened in the advancement of technology. In his first book released in 1990, he predicted machines that would be capable of answering questions by accessing information wirelessly. He also predicts that between 2020 and 2050, we will have 3 dimensional holograms in conversation, and that there will be a New World government, and Boua 8 that a machine will have passed the Turing Test. Many skeptics criticize Kurzweil’s predictions claiming the predictions lack scientific sustenance. Various meetings and conferences have been held by individuals to discuss the possibility of artificial intelligence. In February 2009, a meeting was held under the purview of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence. During the conference, they discussed the possibility of robots becoming selfsufficient and making autonomous decisions. It appears that almost all leaders in artificial intelligence can agree that the future will be radically different that it is today. WHAT ARE THE CRITICS SAYING? Many are skeptic about those who believe singularity is coming soon. Martin Ford, who wrote a book titled “The Lights of the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future.”, is skeptical about the development of artificial technology. In it, he states that singularity will not be reached until automated tasks that are performed by humans today are replaced by machines, which would cause a massive escalation in unemployment. Joan Slonczewki and Adam Gopnik argue that singularity will be very gradual, not the rapid exponential change we are expecting. They argue that over time, machines will take tasks and abilities we currently do, and once they do, we will begin to define them as inhumane, tasks that only machines operate. Until, overtime, there is little that defines what a human does. Otherwise known as Mitochondrial Singularity, over time the “human being” may only exist to turn the machine on. Others believe that the rate of technological advance has ceased to rise and is even declining, although Moore’s law continues to hold steady. In 2011, Paul Allen wrote an article criticizing futurist like Ray Kurzweil who believe that technological singularity is near. Allen claims that it is highly unlikely that singularity will arrive by 2045, which is based on the Boua 9 continuing exponential growth in the change of technology. The exponential change in technology is predicted by Kurzweil in his analysis “The Law of Accelerating Returns” (Allen). It seems that the skeptics back their evidence with scientific reasoning as opposed to than with the individuals who predict that artificial intelligence will come during our lifetime. Progress is being made constantly on the mechanisms that make of the human brain. It will be a long time before these mechanisms can be mimicked. SUMMARY Technological Singularity has been studied in discussed in academia for centuries. Countless mathematicians and engineers has seriously discussed the coming singularity. Moore’s law, which was created by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, predicted the rapid rise in the power of technology that we see today. As early as the 17th century, theorists have been predicting the exponential increase in technology that is being experienced to the point where a “University” or think tank in Silicon Valley was created on these theories. Technological singularity, appears to want to use AI technology to solve some the worlds biggest problems in education, food, and health. There are countless innovators who are aiming at creating artificial intelligence. For instance, AlphaGo, which was developed by innovators at Google to play a chess like game named Go, defeated a reigning champion, Lee Sedol, in a match. Developers at Hanson Robotics has created countless hyper realistic robots, most recently Sophia, in hopes that she will become smarter over time. Also, many predictions have been made as to where this technology could go. Countless innovations claiming to have created the next artificial intelligence, and Turing’s Test is designed to test if a machine is truly intelligent. Claims of a machine having passed the Turing Test, like Eugene Goostman, have quickly been shot down, as critics argue that Eugene was not an “intelligent” machine. There are countless critics who are Boua 10 skeptical of this type of technology and how quickly theorists are predicting that it will come, but it seems like it is coming very fast. CONCLUSION Many people believe that technological singularity is coming fast. The likelihood of ever creating such technology, appears to be slim, at least in our lifetime. Achieving such a complex machine is way more complicated than many of technological singularities proponents make it out to be. The current efforts at creating technology that can think and feel is very far fetched. Society has not yet scratch the surface as to what makes us human, what our consciousness is, or what it means to be “self-aware”, to let alone mimic. If technology of the nature that some theorists are suggesting, it would be very beneficial to mankind, as innovators at Technological Singularity hope. It does not seem plausible that this sort of technology would be available in homes and used in every day life any time soon. Maybe not even in our life times. Martin Ford, a critic of some theories of Artificial Intelligence, claims that artificial intelligence of the caliber individuals like Ray Kurzweil are claiming will be created by 2045, is far-fetched. The type of artificial technology that is depicted in science fiction films such as Transcendence will be a while before it is reached. Will Technological singularity mark the beginning of a new era? As a society, we cannot rule out this possibility. Will artificial intelligence change the way the world operates in the next 20 years? It seems almost certain that it will. Boua 11 WORKS CITED Allen, Paul. "Paul Allen: The Singularity Isn't Near." MIT Technology Review. 12 Oct. 2011. Web. 26 Mar. 2016. "Apple’s A8 SoC Analyzed: The IPhone 6 Chip Is a 2-billion-transistor 20nm Monster | ExtremeTech." ExtremeTech. Web. 26 Mar. 2016. "Defeated Go Champion Lee Sedol Wants a Rematch against Alpha Go." The Independent. Independent Digital News and Media. Web. 28 Mar. 2016. Fedde, Corey. "Robot Sophia Could Be a Glimpse into the Future ( Video)." The Christian Science Monitor. The Christian Science Monitor, 23 Mar. 2016. Web. 28 Mar. 2016. Gelernter, David. "Machines That Think and Feel." Machines That Think and Feel. Wall Street Journal. Web. 20 Mar. 2016. Good, Irving John. "Speculations concerning the first ultraintelligent machine." Advances in computers 6.99 (1965): 31-83. Mann, Charles C. "The End of Moore's Law?" MIT Technology Review. MIT, 1 May 2000. Web. 18 Mar. 2016. "Mission." Singularity Summit Australia RSS. Singularity Summit Australia. Web. 20 Mar. 2016. The Nobel Prize in Physics 1956". Nobelprize.org. Nobel Media AB 2014. Web. 18 Mar 2016. http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/physics/laureates/1956/ Machinery, Computing. "Computing machinery and intelligence-AM Turing." Mind 59.236 (1950): 433. "So, What Is SU? - Singularity University." Singularity University. Web. 27 Mar. 2016. Turing, A. M. "Intelligent Machinery, A Heretical Theory*." Philosophia Mathematica 4.3 (1996): 256-60. Web. 20 Mar. 2016. Boua 12 Yu, Howard. "What AlphaGo's Win Means for Your Job." Fortune What AlphaGos Win Means for Your Job Comments. Fortune, 21 Mar. 2016. Web. 28 Mar. 2016. (Link to Video on Singularity ft. Elon Musk) http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2015/09/10/elon-musk-artificialintelligence.cnnmoney/index.html?sr=fbmoney032316elon-musk-artificialintelligence0620PMVideoVideo&linkId=22592816 (Link to Video on Sophia) https://www.youtubce.com/watch?v=W0_DPi0PmF0