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Final Report - Country-Fact-Sheets Climate Change Scenarios for the Congo Basin Fact-Sheet - Hydrology and Energy - Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)- Zone 3 Maps of projected changes - Maps show the projection of changes in mean flow (a), high flow (Q95) (b) and low flow (Q10) (c) for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000 for the “High” emission scenario. Flows are calculated using the VIC model in combination with three different climate models. (a) (b) (c) List of projected changes - The table shows the projection of changes in mean run-off (rounded values). Note that current land use is used in this study for all assessed time periods. Consequently all changes are caused by climate change alone. Mean run-off Run-off in mm/year or mm/season Today Projected changes Low emission scenario High emission scenario 2000 till 2050 till 2100 till 2050 till 2100 YEAR 766 +72 +124 +94 +309 DJF MAM JJA SON 146 193 156 270 +9 +4 +11 +49 +18 +20 +20 +67 -4 +3 +19 +66 +43 +52 +60 +145 Key adaptation options: • Improving preparedness for extreme weather events and floods through for example (improved) early warning systems. • Development of additional (micro)hydropower facilities where possible. • Diversifying energy supply to prevent dependence on a single energy source. • Existing and future hydropower facilities should be developed and managed in such a way that they can cope with more variable flow patterns including more frequent and severe extremes. Definition of Zone 3 - The map below indicates the position of Zone 3 (red rectangle), representing the central regions with the mainly tropical rainforest climates and mainly a bimodal rain-regime. All values presented in this fact-sheet are changes spatially averaged over the whole zone. Zone 3: 6.0 S to 5.0 N As the northern 18.5 to 32.0 E and central parts of DRC fall within Zone 3, projected changes for this zone are assumed to be representative for these parts of the country. Data and method - Climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Congo basin were assessed using the VIC macroscale hydrological model. For this analyses we used climate change projections from three different global climate models and for two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: the “Low“ scenario based upon the SRES B1 (IPCC-AR4) scenario; the “High“ scenario based upon the SRES A2 (IPCC-AR4) scenario. Here we present the results in terms of changes in run-off and river flows. First the relative changes in average flow are presented. If the average flow is decreasing it indicates that in the future less water is available for different users. Then we present the change in high flows. For this we use the Q95 indicator (flow is only this high 5% of the time). If Q95 is increasing, it indicates that your flood risks are increasing. For low flow we used the Q10 indicator (flow is only this low 10% of the time). If Q10 is reducing it indicates that drought risks are increasing. Key findings for Zone 3: • The hydrological cycle will intensify resulting in more frequent floods and maybe more droughts. • Especially peak flows will increase in this zone probably resulting in more frequent and more severe floods. • On average hydropower potential will probably increase but due to more variable run-off patterns hydropower production could become less reliable. • Hydropower facilities should be aware of more frequent high flow events which could possible cause severe damages. Further details can be found in the “Impacts Report“ and the “Adaptation Report“ in the report section of the final project document - also available online under www.giz.de and www.comifac.org Final Report - Country-Fact-Sheets Climate Change Scenarios for the Congo Basin Fact-Sheet - Hydrology and Energy - Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)- Zone 4 Maps of projected changes - Maps show the projection of changes in mean flow (a), high flow (Q95) (b) and low flow (Q10) (c) for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000 for the “High” emission scenario. Flows are calculated using the VIC model in combination with three different climate models. (a) (b) (c) List of projected changes - The table shows the projection of changes in mean run-off (rounded values). Note that current land use is used in this study for all assessed time periods. Consequently all changes are caused by climate change alone. Mean run-off Run-off in mm/year or mm/season Today Projected changes Low emission scenario High emission scenario 2000 till 2050 till 2100 till 2050 till 2100 YEAR 1233 45 256 180 386 DJF MAM JJA SON 325 433 45 429 -3 7 3 39 76 75 8 98 32 56 14 79 115 102 22 148 Key adaptation options: • Improving preparedness for extreme weather events and floods through for example (improved) early warning systems. • Development of additional (micro)hydropower facilities where possible. • Adaptation of river systems so they can manage much higher flows and more extremes. • Diversifying energy supply to prevent dependence on a single energy source. Definition of Zone 4 - The map below indicates the position of Zone 4 (red rectangle), representing the regions north of the equator with predominantly tropical wet and dry climates with a dedicated rainy season. All values presented in this fact-sheet are Zone 4: changes spatial9.0 S to 2.0 N (West) 9.0 S to 6.0 S (East) ly averaged over 8.0 to 18.5 E (North) the whole zone. 8.0 to 21.5 E (South) As the western part of DRC falls within Zone 4, projected changes for this zone are assumed to be representative for this part of the country. Data and method - Climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Congo basin were assessed using the VIC macroscale hydrological model. For this analyses we used climate change projections from three different global climate models and for two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: the “Low“ scenario based upon the SRES B1 (IPCC-AR4) scenario; the “High“ scenario based upon the SRES A2 (IPCC-AR4) scenario. Here we present the results in terms of changes in run-off and river flows. First the relative changes in average flow are presented. If the average flow is decreasing it indicates that in the future less water is available for different users. Then we present the change in high flows. For this we use the Q95 indicator (flow is only this high 5% of the time). If Q95 is increasing, it indicates that your flood risks are increasing. For low flow we used the Q10 indicator (flow is only this low 10% of the time). If Q10 is reducing it indicates that drought risks are increasing. Key findings for Zone 4: • The hydrological cycle will intensify resulting in more frequent floods and possibly more droughts. • Both average and peak flows could severely increase in this zone probably resulting in more frequent and more severe floods. • Hydropower potential will probably increase but due to more variable run-off patterns hydropower production could become less reliable. • In the future, hydropower facilities will be faced with more frequent and more severe high flow events this could potentially cause severe damages. Further details can be found in the “Impacts Report“ and the “Adaptation Report“ in the report section of the final project document - also available online under www.giz.de and www.comifac.org Final Report - Country-Fact-Sheets Climate Change Scenarios for the Congo Basin Fact-Sheet - Hydrology and Energy - Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)- Zone 5 Maps of projected changes - Maps show the projection of changes in mean flow (a), high flow (Q95) (b) and low flow (Q10) (c) for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000 for the “High” emission scenario. Flows are calculated using the VIC model in combination with three different climate models. Definition of Zone 5 - The map below indicates the position of Zone 5 (red rectangle), representing the subtropical regions in the south of central Africa. All values presented in this fact-sheet are changes spatially averaged over the whole zone. As the southern part of DRC falls within Zone 5, projected changes for this zone are assumed to be representative for this part Zone 5: of the country. 14.0 to 6.0 S 21.5 to 32.0 E (a) (c) List of projected changes - The table shows the projection of changes in mean run-off (rounded values). Note that current land use is used in this study for all assessed time periods. Consequently all changes are caused by climate change alone. Mean run-off Run-off in mm/year or mm/season Today Projected changes Low emission scenario High emission scenario 2000 till 2050 till 2100 till 2050 till 2100 YEAR 531 24 52 60 140 DJF MAM JJA SON 327 140 1 64 15 11 0 -2 29 16 0 6 32 23 0 5 84 47 0 9 Data and method - Climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Congo basin were assessed using the VIC macroscale hydrological model. For this analyses we used climate change projections from three different global climate models and for two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: the “Low“ scenario based upon the SRES B1 (IPCC-AR4) scenario; the “High“ scenario based upon the SRES A2 (IPCC-AR4) scenario. Here we present the results in terms of changes in run-off and river flows. First the relative changes in average flow are presented. If the average flow is decreasing it indicates that in the future less water is available for different users. Then we present the change in high flows. For this we use the Q95 indicator (flow is only this high 5% of the time). If Q95 is increasing, it indicates that your flood risks are increasing. For low flow we used the Q10 indicator (flow is only this low 10% of the time). If Q10 is reducing it indicates that drought risks are increasing. Key findings for Zone 5: early warning systems. • The hydrological cycle will intensify resulting in more frequent floods and maybe more droughts. • Especially peak flows will increase in this zone probably resulting in more frequent and more severe floods. • On average hydropower potential will probably increase but due to more variable run-off patterns hydropower production could become less reliable. • Hydropower facilities should be aware of more frequent high flow events which might cause severe damages. way that they can cope with more variable flow patterns including more frequent and severe extremes. • Adaptation of river systems to manage higher flows and more extremes. • Improving water storage facilities to guarantee sufficient water supply during droughts. Further details can be found in the “Impacts Report“ and the “Adaptation Report“ in the report section of the final project document - also available online under www.giz.de Key adaptation options: • Improving preparedness for extreme weather events and floods through e.g. (improved) • Development of additional (micro)hydropower facilities where possible. • Diversifying energy supply to prevent dependence on a single energy source. • Existing and future hydropower facilities should be developed and managed in such a and www.comifac.org