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1 Russia Environment Agency Structure The Russian entities involved in UNFCCC negotiations on a follow up to the Kyoto Protocol are the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. The Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) of the Russian Federation is charged with “state policy formulation and normative and legal regulation in the sphere of the study, renewal, and conservation of natural resources.” http://www.mnr.gov.ru/part/?pid=398 The MNR participates in international agreements related to the use and conservation of natural resources. http://enc.ex.ru/cgi-bin/n1firm.pl?lang=2&f=1245 The Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) [http://www.meteorf.ru/en_rgm2d.aspx?RgmFolderID=4bbde91d-93ab4c38-bf62-95efa0622796&RgmDocID= 68b7c2eb-d3fe-47d0-b51a-3eedf6411631] is considered to be Russia’s “national focal point” as a UNFCCC party. http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/country.pl?country=RU Roshydromet conducts hydrological and meteorological research and disseminates forecasts and other information to the public. It also represents Russia in its participation in international organizations and in reaching agreements with other countries. http://www.meteorf.ru/en_rgm2d.aspx?RgmFolderID=4bbde91d-93ab-4c38-bf6295efa0622796&RgmDocID= 68b7c2eb-d3fe-47d0-b51a-3eedf6411631 Discussion of Global Warming Efforts The tax, banking, labor and land codes, during President Putin’s first administration, were improved upon through a number of important reforms. These reforms soon attracted investors and Russia’s foreign direct investment jumped during the period of 2005-2007 from $14.6 billion to $45 billion.i Still, issues such as a commodity driven economy, inflation, and a widening gap between the rich and poor plague the Russian economy. The mineral rich Ural Mountains, oil, gas, coal and timber reserves in the Far East, leave Russia with a wealth of natural resources.ii However, many of the resources are located in remote areas. Obstacles such as climate and terrain hinder the country’s ability to extract their resources.iii Despite these obstacles, oil, natural gas, metals and timber account for over 80% of Russia’s exports and more than 30% of government revenue.iv This leaves Russia vulnerable to swings in commodity pricing. Impact of Climate Change Air pollution from heavy industrialization, coal-fired plant emissions, and the increase in transportation use, coupled with industrial water pollution, deforestation, soil 2 erosion, and improper waste management, has resulted in significant climate change trends.v Siberia, will be shorter by 15-27 A 2-3°C temperature rise in past 90 days. Maximum ice cover will be years thinner by 20-40%. Heat waves in May 2005 broke a 22 The northern hemisphere mountain year record tree line has shifted to higher Increasing heavy rains in western elevations. Russia and decreasing rains in Arctic and sub-arctic ecosystems Siberia resulted in a 50 to 70% above permafrost may become a increase in surface runoff in Siberia. carbon sink. 5% annual increase of river flow Northern wetland methane emissions (winter increase of 25-90%) due to increased by 10% to 63% based on increased melting and thawing of Northern Siberian estimates alone permafrost. Thaw lakes and mires are expanding Increase in frequency of catastrophic in response to warming. floods (0.5 to 1%) in the last year due to earlier breakup of river-ice Increase of fires in Siberian and heavy rain. peatlands resulted in the burning of 20 million hectors in 2003. An ecosystem shift in the northern Bering Sea is attributed to regional Polar bears face a high risk of climate warming and trends in the extinction with warming of 2.8°C Arctic Oscillation. above pre-industrial rates.vi Comparing 2010-2015 with the control period 1950-1979 the duration of ice cover, on rivers in Climate Change Initiatives The Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) is the governmental body charged with researching hydrological and meteorological issues and disseminating results and other information to the public.vii Roshydromet also has several Research Institutions that collect data and conduct research on climate change issues.viii Roshydromet recently released “For the Period of Up to 2010-2015 Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy: Strategic Prediction” which outlined climate change effects and predicted continuing impacts.ix Roshydromet is the national ministry representative for UNFCCC discussions. This governmental agency heads Russia’s research initiatives in relation to climate change. Pre-Kyoto Position and Ratification Three years before Russia’s ratification of Kyoto, the US refused to ratify leaving the treaty dependent on Russian ratification. President Putin announced his desire to ratify the convention in May of 1994. At the time of ratification, Russia accounted for 17% of world emissions due to industrialization.x Many aids and government officials met the decision with reluctance. The chief economic adviser, Andrei Illarionov, 3 believed the treaty would stifle economic growth.xi Government economists questioned how Russia could reduce greenhouse gas emissions during an industrial revival.xii While top Russian scientists advised against ratification, claiming there was no evidence linking greenhouse gas emissions to climate change.xiii Despite internal resistance, Russia ratified Kyoto in November of 2004 and the Climate Change Convention in December of the same year.xiv Russia’s deciding factor may have been the political benefits, as the European Union alluded that they would support Russia's bid to join the World Trade Organization, in response to its ratification of the treaty.xv Post-Kyoto Position Russia’s recent submission to the UNFCCC for the Poznan Conference provided a detailed outline of the nation’s current stance on building a post-Kyoto framework.xvi The Russian Federation is reluctant to accept definitive emission reduction commitments labeling the G8 goal of 50% reduction by 2050 as inspirational and the 25-40% reduction by 2020 unreasonable.xvii However, Russia is on board for developing some flexible standards for a post-Kyoto regime. Russia will only accept new legally binding commitments under the following conditions: “the regime should not be punitive and enforceable; it should envisage the effective incentives for the participants to fulfill their commitments; it should contain procedures and mechanisms allowing, if necessary, to adjust these commitments in a course of their implementation.”xviii It is important that the post 2012 Protocol be revised to reflect national conditions and circumstances as well as the potential of countries to act.xix A collective reduction of emissions for a country group is unreasonable. Russia suggests restructuring the current grouping of countries under the Kyoto. Terms such as Annex I and non-Annex I are obsolete and irrelevant when dealing with present day realities.xx The base starting points for the setting of commitments and the assessment of implementation of the commitments under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol should be preserved.xxi Market approaches are ineffective in tackling climate change and are not a reliable mechanism for regulation due to the instability of the global market.xxii The participants themselves can divide national commitments according to governmental sector, subject to international verification.xxiii Finally, every country’s participation is necessary for effectiveness. As an incentive for participation, countries should be rewarded for emissions reduction and for adopting voluntary commitments.xxiv 4 ENDNOTES i See CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY, THE 2008 WORLD FACTBOOK, (Jan. 14, 2009), at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html. ii Id. iii Id. iv Id. v Id. vi See ALCAMO MORENO ET AL., EUROPE. CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY. CONTRIBUTION OF WORKING GROUP II TO THE FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE 544566 (Cambridge University Press 2007), http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm. vii Id. viii See Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet), For the Period Up to 2010-2015 of Climate Change Expected in Russia and its Impact on Sectors of the Russian National Economy Strategic Prediction, http://www.meteorf.ru/en_default.aspx. ix Id. x See Russia Backs Kyoto Climate Treaty, BBC NEWS, Sep. 30, 2004, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3702640.stm xi Id. xii Id. xiii Id. 5 xiv See U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, Russian Federation, http://maindb.unfccc.int/public/country.pl?country=RU xv Id. at 10. xvi See U.N. FCCC, 4th Sess. at 84-85, U.N. Doc. FCCC/AWGLCA/2008/MISC.5 (Oct. 27, 2008). xvii Id. xviii Id. xix Id. xx Id. xxi Id. xxii Id. xxiii Id. xxiv Id.