* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download here - UC Center Sacramento
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Views on the Kyoto Protocol wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in New Zealand wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on Australia wikipedia , lookup
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Business action on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate, Water, and California Agriculture: From Research to Policy Louise Jackson, Professor and Extension Specialist Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, UC Davis California Climate Change Scoping Plan: The Role of Agriculture UC Center Sacramento May 26, 2016 This presentation • Climate change challenges facing California agriculture • Interdisciplinary case study on how climate change will affect agriculture in Yolo County (top-down, regional) • Agroecological research on specific practices and strategies for short- and long-term resilience (bottom-up, local) Temperature projections for this century • 1950-present: hottest period in last 600 years • Modelled increase in mean annual temperature: – 2.5°- 5.5°F (2041-2070) – 3.5°- 9.5°F (2070-2099) • Uncertainty ahead! GlobalChange.gov; Data from Scripps Snow projections for this century • Snow water equivalent for ‘Business-As-Usual’ (BAU scenario=A2) decreases • Earlier timing of spring snowmelt and decreases in total runoff from snowmelt • Lower precipitation in late 21st Century, especially in southern California • Implication: reduced moisture and reservoir water storage from Sierra Nevada snowmelt GlobalChange.gov; Data from Scripps Safeguarding California: California Natural Resources Agency • 2014 and 2015: greatest ever reduction in water availability due to low stream flows and low reservoir levels • In 2015, 542,000 acres estimated to have been fallowed – Losses to all economic sectors: $2.74 billion and 20,000 total jobs (Howitt et al., 2015) • During times of drought, groundwater is more heavily relied upon – Depletion of the water available to future generations – Aquifer collapse and subsidence with permanent loss of water storage • “This is directly opposed to agricultural adaptation to climate change and leaves the industry less resilient to future water scarcity.” http://resources.ca.gov/climate/safeguarding/ Greenhouse gas emissions in California 433 MMT CO2e in 1990 http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/graph/graph.htm (CA Air Resources Board) California agricultural production • Highest agricultural crop value in USA for >50 consecutive years • ≈25 million acres in some type of agricultural production – Half of the fruits, nuts and vegetables in the USA – $54 billion as income to farmers and ranches in 2014 • Only state producing commercial quantities of almonds, artichokes, clingstone peaches, figs, raisins, walnuts, pistachios, nectarines, olives, dates, and prunes • Without climate change adaptation, is urban conversion more likely? If so, – – – – Much higher GHG emissions per acre Decrease in food security Loss of rural livelihoods Loss of open space, biodiversity, and environmental quality Video ‘When a Town Runs Dry’ on Stratford, CA, released by The Atlantic this week http://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/483120/when-a-town-runs-dry/ Hot issues: Climate and working lands Agricultural responses to climate change • Mitigation – Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions • Nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane – AB 32: 1990 emissions in 2020 • Agriculture has small role in its cap and trade policy • Offset potential for trade; now not in the cap • Funds available for mitigation (+ its co-benefits) – SB 375: connect land use planning with implementation of AB 32 • Higher GHG emissions from urbanized than ag land • Adaptation – Acting to tolerate higher GHG, warming, drought and extreme weather – Newer emphasis in CA state agencies – ‘Climate Smart Agriculture’ • Mitigation + adaptation + long-term resilience Relevant recent policy Governor Brown released his May revised budget ($115 million for agriculture of $2 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF)): • Healthy Soils Initiative: $20 million • State Water Efficiency and Enhancement Program (SWEEP): $20 million • Sustainable Agricultural Lands Conservation Program: $40 million • Dairy Methane: $35 million • SGMA (Sustainable Groundwater Management Act) – Groundwater basin planning, replenishment, BMPs This presentation • Climate change challenges facing California agriculture • Interdisciplinary case study on how climate change will affect agriculture in Yolo County (top-down, regional) • Agroecological research on specific practices and strategies for short- and long-term resilience (bottom-up, local) Case study on how climate change will affect agriculture in Yolo County • Crop management, production & agrobiodiversity • Econometric analysis of past and future impacts of climate on agricultural acreage • Hydrologic model for water supply and demand for local irrigation district • Inventory of county’s agricultural GHG emissions • Survey of farmer views on climate change impacts and local responses • Model of local urban growth scenarios and GHG emissions Jackson et al. 2012. Adaptation Strategies for Agricultural Sustainability in Yolo Co., California. CEC-500-2012-031. Outreach approach for the Yolo case study (2008-2015) • Steering committee of many types of stakeholders and agencies • Outreach from project’s initiation – Conversations and presentations to county agencies, UC Coop. Ext., Farm Bureau, CDFA, DWR, NRCS, SACOG etc. – Conference presentations on research questions and framework – Work in progress as a theme • Cooperation with NGOs – Consultations to find out viewpoints and recommendations – Speakers at hearings and NGO meetings • NGOs took the lead translating research into actual policy, e.g., – CalCAN (California Climate and Agriculture Network – American Farmland Trust Yolo Ag Commissioner; Farm Bureau President and Executive Director; County Administrator’s Climate Change Coordinator; UC Farm Advisor; UCD professor, staff researcher, postdoc, grad student http://agadapt.ucdavis.edu/ This presentation • Climate change challenges facing California agriculture • Interdisciplinary case study on how climate change will affect agriculture in Yolo County (top-down, regional) • Agroecological research on specific practices and strategies for short- and long-term resilience (bottom-up, local) Example: traits to improve fresh market tomatoes under water deficit • On-farm research on traits conferring water use efficiency (WUE) – Merced Co.: Conventional mature green production • Total marketable yield: 45,007 lbs/acre • WUE: 1,601 lbs/inch of water • Water applied: 28 inches – Yolo Co.: Organic heirloom ripe pole production • Total marketable yield: 56,192 lbs/acre • WUE: 923 lbs/inch of water • Water applied: 59 inches – Santa Cruz Co.: Dry-farmed ripe production • Total marketable yield: 80,695 lbs/acre • WUE: 29,343 lbs/inch of water • Water applied: 2.75 inches • No one-size-fits-all strategy: Different varieties, growing season length, pest control strategies Funded by USDA/CDFA Specialty Crop Block Grant Example: ‘farmscaping’ on an organic farm • 108 acre farm – – – – – – – Tomato, safflower, oat Cover crops and compost Riparian corridor and hedgerows Runoff ditches and tailwater pond Sediment traps Returned water used or stored Reservoir, groundwater and aqueduct water • Tradeoffs – – – – – – ↑ Labor and timing needs = Yield/acre ↓ Farmed land ↑ Water quality ↓ GHG emission ↑ Biodiversity and wildlife habitat Smukler et al. 2010; 2012 hedgerows fields tailwater pond riparian ditch Tomato and grain fields, riparian, hedgerow, drainage ditch and pond habitats at Rominger organic farm in Yolo County, CA Tracking biota, carbon and nutrients Example: carbon stocks across a landscape • Vineyard / Woodland landscape, Mendocino Co. – Soil pits, vegetation sampling and GIS on 6 ranches • Woodlands: 126 Mg C/ha • Vineyards: 87 Mg C/ha • Most of the carbon was in soil Williams et al. 2011 Conclusions • Agriculture is key to ↓GHG emissions in CA • Resilient farms and ranches will limit sprawl and VMT • Climate Smart Agriculture = GHG mitigation + Adaptation for Food Security + Long-term Resilience • Scientific research now provides the basis for CA metrics to: – Showcase agricultural practices for combining mitigation and adaptation to climate stress – Promote novel technologies for energy-efficiency that also benefit production and environmental quality – Document rates of change from typical baselines to facilitate adoption pathways and policy support for ag • Multi-stakeholder interactions crucial for developing agriculture solutions and engaging the general public Thanks to many postdocs and graduate students for their work over the years! Sean Smukler Felipe Barrios Masias Steve Culman Annie Young-Mathews Martin Potthoff Dan Ruzicka Ryan Haden Amanda Hodson Sara Sanchez Moreno Tim Bowles Tim Cavagnaro Eli Carlisle Climate Smart Agriculture: UC Davis World Food Center • Global Science CSA Conference in Davis in 2013 – 300 participants from 35 countries • Global Alliance for Climate Smart Agriculture (one of a few academic institutions) • Global research agenda for CSA interwoven into our California agenda and policy • Policy Forum (Feb 11 in Davis): Leveraging Research to Inform Climate Scoping Plan Update – Main outcome: Much new data now exists for mitigation and adaptation strategies for California agriculture Survey of Yolo Co. farmers: Are they concerned about climate change, extreme events and how to adapt? Jackson et al. 2012. CEC-500-2012-031; Haden et al. 2012. PLoS One. Greenhouse gas mitigation through farmland preservation Land-Use Category Rangeland Cropland Urban • • • • Yolo Co. Land Area 1990 2008 ----- acres ----131,945 135,717 344,335 324,654 22,471 29,881 Average GHG Emissions Rate 1990 2008 --- MT CO2e acre-1 yr-1 --0.28 0.32 0.87 0.80 61.50 -- *Countywide urban emissions for 2008 were not available GHG emissions 70 times higher per acre on urban land than cropland Calculations and constants for each crop made publically available 40-60 times higher elsewhere (2015 study by American Farmland Trust) Policy relevance: preserve agricultural land from development to stabilize and reduce GHG emissions…….. How would this information be implemented? Yolo Co. Climate Action Plan 2011; Jackson et al. 2012. CEC-500-2012-031; Haden et al. 2012. Env. Planning & Mgmt. Sources of new urban GHG emissions in 2050 • – – – – • High emissions (IPCC A2) Storylines for A2 (high GHG emissions) and B1 (low GHG emissions) scenarios designed during the project with stakeholders, e.g., Transportation in high vs. low density locations Household energy use Electricity sources Improvements in energy efficiency These published calculations are now being used by jurisdictions, e.g. for proposals to SALCP for farmland preservation A2 High GHG Emissions Scenario Transportation Residential B1 Low GHG Emissions Total Transportation Residential Total ---------- MT of CO2e yr-1 increase compared to 2008---------Level of urbanization plus level of energy use 671,047 310,361 981,408 254,243 144,932 Cropland in 2008: 259,723 MT CO2e yr-1 Urban land in 2008: approx. 1,837,681 MT CO2e yr-1 Jackson et al. 2012. CEC-500-2012-031; Wheeler et al. 2013. J. of Urbanism 399,175 Climate responses of a watershed Water Evaluation and Planning Model from Stockholm Environment Institute Cache and Putah Creek Watersheds Calibrated with historical climate, crop, reservoir and stream data Model run using two future climate projections (2010-2100) 600 WEAP projection of irrigation demand A2=blue; B1=green; historical= dark blue 500 400 300 2091 2081 2071 2061 2051 Year 2041 2031 2021 2011 2001 1991 1981 200 1971 Irrigation Demand (TAF) • • • • Warming increases demand 30% by 2100 using current crops and practices (A2) Indian Valley Reservoir Clear Lake Lake Berryessa Cache Creek Irrigation District Putah Creek Mehta et al., 2013 Impact of modeled adaptation scenarios Low global GHG emissions (less warm) High global GHG emissions (warmer) Water-saving technology with diversified mix of crops • New technology for efficient water use + diversified crops with low water demand would decrease future irrigation demand to average historic levels (1971-2008) Mehta et al., 2013 Carbon and GHG emissions on this farm • Riparian: 10% of the farm’s C • Fields: ≈0.3% soil C increase in 10 yrs • Mean N2O emissions <5 g N ha-1 day-1 (0.004 lb N acre-1 day-1) – Very low compared to synthetic fertilizer studies – 0.5 kg N ha-1 season-1 Smukler et al. 2010; 2012 Figure from Shcherbak et al. 2014