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The 2035 modelling challenge for forecasting climate impacts on marine biota and fisheries A collaboration emerging from an international workshop Thomas A. Okey, Anne B. Hollowed, Michael J. Schirripa, Richard J. Beamish CCCC/POC/FIS Workshop , Climate scenarios for ecosystem modeling II PICES annual meeting, Dalian, China, October 2008 Climate Change Impacts on Pacific Marine Ecosystems Coordinated Science, Imaginative Synthesis, & Policy Action Assessment - Known impacts - Vulnerabilities Innovative tools Imaginative synthesis for policy / management solutions for forecasting & strategy identification Science Policy Presentation outline • Introduction • Workshop at Gijon, Spain, May 2008 • Synthesis of modelling approaches & projects • The 2035 modelling challenge • Deliverables Our goal • To improve the forecasting of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and commercial fishery species Our approach • To develop a coordinated international collaboration of interdisciplinary modeling teams Steps toward a collaboration • A first inaugural workshop at the International Symposium on the Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans in Gijon, Spain, May 2008 (completed; Okey et al. 2008); • A regular working group potentially under the auspices of ICES/PICES; • Articulating the 2035 Marine Impacts Modelling Challenge (for submittal to ICES Journal of Marine Science this week); • Assembly of a special journal issue compendium of examples of available approaches resulting from the 2035 modelling challenge; • Development of a more standardized approach to impacts scenario development, while embracing the diversity of approaches; • Incorporation of the results of the modelling into the fifth IPCC report, IPSO reports, and other global reports and syntheses. Gijon workshop: Linking Global Climate Model output to (a) trends in commercial species productivity and (b) changes in broader biological communities in the world’s oceans Gijon workshop goals • Review current progress on integrating climate scenarios into stock forecasting models, ecosystem models, and other assessments • Initiate a coordinated international research effort to forecast climate change impacts; • Communicate and document examples that illustrate the state of the science Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans International Symposium 19-23 May 2008, Gijon, Spain Dharma wheel of forecasting climate impacts on marine fisheries and ecosystems RECLAIM Temperature effects on growth of 0-group flatfish Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp Lorna Teal, Joep de Leeuw, Henk van der Veer Wageningen IMARES / Aquaculture & Fisheries Testing Two Methods of Including Environmental Factors into Stock Assessments Michael J. Schirripa NOAA Fisheries Northwest Fisheries Science Center C. Phillip Goodyear Independent Fisheries Biologist Richard Methot NOAA Fisheries Office of Science and Technology Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans W2 & W3 Linking Global Climate Model output Forecasting climate change impacts on distribution and abundance of jack mackerel around Korean waters Jae-Bong Lee, Anne B. Hollowed, Nicholas A. Bond, James E. Overland, Chang-Ik Zhang, Dong-Woo Lee The Future of North Pacific Ocean Climate from IPCC Model Projections James E. Overland1 Nicholas A. Bond2 and Muyin Wang2 1 NOAA/PMEL 2 University of Washington/JISAO Climate Change and Changing Fisher Behavior in the Bering Sea Pollock Fishery Alan Haynie, PhD Economist, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle National Marine Fisheries Service [email protected] Techniques for forecasting climate-induced variation in the distribution and abundance of chub mackerel in the Northwestern Pacific Sukyung Kang1, Jae Bong Lee1, Anne Hollowed2, Nicholas Bond3, Suam Kim4 1. National Fisheries Research & Development Institute, Busan, Korea 2. Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA, USA 3. Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, USA 4. Pukyong National University, Busan, Korea New Zealand Fisheries and Climate Change Mary Livingston Modeling response of ocean biology to climate warming using an empirical approach J. L. Sarmiento, P. Schultz, M. Hiscock, & S. Henson Princeton University Effects of Climate Change on World’s Oceans – May 18, 2008, Gijon, Spain Towards the integration of biogeochemical and food web models for a comprehensive description of marine ecosystem dynamics Simone Libralato1, Cosimo Solidoro1 & Villy Christensen2 1 Istituto Nazionale di Oceangrafia e di Geofisica Sperimentale - OGS Dept. Oceanography Trieste, Italy 2 University of British Columbia Fisheries Centre Vancouver, Canada ECEM’07 Workshop 26-27 November 2007, Trieste, Italy Biogeochemical processes and fish dynamics in food web models for end-to-end conceptualisation of marine ecosystems. Theory and use of Ecopath with Ecosim. Organized by OGS (Italian National Institute of Oceanography and Geophysics) Fisheries Centre (University of British Columbia) Hosted by Supported also by Endorsed by ICTP (Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics) EUROCEANS European Network of Excellence for Ocean Ecosystems Analysis IES-JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Center IMBER (Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry adn Ecosystem Reserch) GLOBEC (Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics) LOICZ (Land Ocean Interaction Coastal Zone) ISEM (International Society for Ecological Modelling, European Chapter) Dynamic bioclimate envelope model to predict climate-induced changes in distributions of marine fishes and invertebrates William Cheung1 Chris Close1, Vicky Lam1, Jorge Sarmiento2, Kelly Kearney2, Reg Watson1 & Daniel Pauly1 1Sea 2Atmospheric Around Us Project, Fisheries Centre, UBC and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Ocean, Gijon, Spain May 18, 2008 Cheung et al. (2008) Fisheries Centre Research Report 16(3) Example: Small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) Original (static) distribution Distribution after 50 years (Climate projection from NOAA/GFDL CM 2.1) Relative abundance 0 0 Low > > > > > > > > High > Effects of climate change on the northern Benguela ecosystem Sheila JJ Heymans Scottish Association of Marine Science PISCES Workshop 2/3 Gijón, Spain 18 May 2008 Do predictions from vulnerability indices match vulnerability predicted from ecosystem models? Alistair Hobday Thomas Kunz Tom Okey Elvira Poloczanska Anthony Richardson Which forcing factors fit? Investigating the relative influence of fishing and primary production on marine ecosystem dynamics Steven Mackinson, Georgi Daskalov, Sheila Heymans, Sergio Neira, Hugo Arancibia, Manuel Zetina-Rejón, Jiang Hong, Cheng Hequin, Marta Coll, Francisco Arreguin-Sanchez,Kathryn Keeble and Lynne Shannon Predicting the impacts and consequences of climate change on global fish production Dr Manuel Barange Director GLOBEC International Project Office Plymouth Marine Laboratory [email protected] Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Ocean Gijon, Spain 18 May 2008 Future Ecosystem Changes Projected by a 3-D High Resolution Ecosystem Mode Taketo Hashioka1, 2, Takashi T. Sakamoto1, Takeshi Okunishi3 and Yasuhiro Yamanaka1, 2, 4 1. Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) / Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Japan 2. Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST) / Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), Japan 3. Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute / Fisheries Research Agency (FRA), Japan 4. Faculty of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Japan Syntheses of modelling approaches • • • • • • • • Allen (2007) Plagányi (2007) DFO (2008) Hollowed et al (2008) Okey (2008) Okey et al. (2008b, 2008c) Townsend et al. (2008) EUR-OCEANS Model Shopping Tool (MOST) References • • • • • • • • Allen, J. I. 2007. Marine Ecosystem Evolution in a Changing Environment (MEECE). Proposal to the European Commission FP7. DFO. 2008. National Workshop on Modelling Tools for Ecosystem Approaches to Management; 22-25 October 2007. National Workshop on Modelling Tools for Ecosystem Approaches to Management. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Proceed. Ser. 2008/007. Hollowed, A. B., R. J. Beamish, T. A. Okey, and M. J. Schirripa, editors. 2008. Reports of PICES/NPRB Workshops on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish. PICES Scientific Report No. 34, North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES), Sydney, B.C., Canada. Okey, T. A. 2008. Integrating climate change signals with marine ecosystem models: A review of Ecopath with Ecosim examples. Pages 77-80 in E. S. Poloczanska, A. J. Hobday, and A. J. Richardson, editors. In Hot Water: preparing for climate change in Australia’s coastal and marine systems. Proceedings of conference held in Brisbane, 12-14th November 2007, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. Okey, T. A., A. B. Hollowed, and M. J. Schirripa. 2008a. PICES Fishery Science Committee and Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee Workshop in Gijón. PICES Press 16 (2):16-18. Okey, T. A., G. M. Watters, R. Little, P. Lehodey, G. Newton, R. Leaper, and T. Kunz. 2008b. Predicting marine ecosystem impacts of climate change in Australia. Pages 19-23 in E. S. Poloczanska, A. J. Hobday, and A. J. Richardson, editors. In Hot Water: Preparing for Climate Change in Australia’s Coastal and Marine Systems, Brisbane, Australia, 2-14th November 2007. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. Plagányi, É. E. 2007. Models for an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries. FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 477, FAO, Rome. 108 pp. Townsend, H. M., J. S. Link, K. E. Osgood, T. Gedamke, G. M. Watters, J. J. Polovina, P. S. Levin, N. Cyr, and K. Y. Aydin. 2008. Report of the National Ecosystem Modeling Workshop (NEMoW). U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Silver Spring, Md., 93 pp. National Ecosystem Modeling Workshop (NEMoW) August 29-31 2007, NMFS Santa Cruz Review of major ecosystem model classes Éva Plagányi Dept. of Maths & Applied Maths, University of Cape Town With thanks to Doug Butterworth and MARAM Reference: Plagányi 2007. Models for an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries. FAO Fisheries Technical paper 477 Report of Modelling Ecosystem Interactions for Informing an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries: Best Practices in Ecosystem Modeling, Tivoli, July 3-6, 2007 Our synthesis 1. Notable ecosystem modelling and stock assessment approaches to forecasting climate change impacts 2. Notable projects that include marine climate impacts modelling 3. Notable organisations with the capabilities of serving as venues for international collaborations Whole systems approaches Biophysical dynamic system approaches Global predictions from simple ecological theory Bioclimatic envelope approaches Dynamic green ocean models NPZ – fish approaches NPZ approaches Minimally realistic models Extended single species approaches Statistical approaches Water quality and habitat approaches Spatial planning for climate impacts Projects that include marine climate impacts modelling Organisations with capabilities of serving as venues for collaboration The 2035 modelling challenge • An open invitation for research teams to use existing modelling frameworks to simulate the impacts of climate and oceanographic changes on the 2035 biology and ecology of any marine ecosystem or biological component therein, including commercial fishery species. Potential questions to address • • • • • • • • How will the productivity, abundances, or biomasses of important stocks change? How will important fish stocks change their historical spatial distributions or the timing (phenology) of particular life stages or migrations? How will food web structures be re-assembled and otherwise change (e.g. will jellyfish dominate the seas)? How will ‘mis-matched’ life stages and predator-prey relationships further affect biological communities and stocks? Will ocean life experience non-linear thresholds of functional or structural change related to positive feedbacks from these changes, or other instabilities? Can we understand and describe particular mechanisms of these changes (e.g. physical and physiological)? What are the fisheries impacts / implications (e.g. Will current maximum yield and overfishing definitions remain useful?; What other types of approaches will be needed?; Will climate change dictate changes in traditional fishing gears and methods?) Will the need for maintaining the functional and structural resiliency of biological communities in the face of climate change requires that some fisheries ‘stock productivity’ be ‘allocated’ to resiliency, and other Deliverables • Special issue of journal • Contributions to global marine assessments • Contributions to IPCC reporting