Download Category 1: Increasingly Severe Weather

TEAM A- Kelly Arnold, Kristin Combs, Guy Duncan, Matthew McClellan?, and
Michael Schoenborn
Spring 2010 ESCI 580- Teaching Middle School Earth System Science
using PBL
Assignment: Cycle A- TEAM Knowledge-Building Assignment Document
Date Due: 02/07/2010
GCC Module/Scenario Team Knowledge-Building Document
Abstract
This document represents our collective team efforts at preliminary
knowledge building regarding the GCC module/scenario.
Each member of the team is learning how to use a Problem-Based
Learning Model to solve a given scenario, with the ultimate goal of giving us the
experience necessary to implement this with a group of learners. This weekly
learning cycle is aimed at giving us some practice actually using the PBL model
as a Team. Prior to putting this document together the Team has (Steps 1-6
adapted from Problem-Based Learning Model):
1. Read and analyzed the GCC Scenario and situation
2. Listed our personal understanding, ideas, or hunches
a) Individually, and
b) By e-mail and chat room postings
3. Listed what is known
a) Based on our current understanding
b) Individually, and
c) By e-mail and chat room postings
d) By inclusion in this document as individuals and team
4. Listed what is unknown
a) We generated a list of questions individually about the scenario
b) We posted them for Team members to review
c) Collectively we contributed what we know or think we know (no
in-depth research at this level)
d) By non-inclusion in this document our unknowns (This document
reflects our original knowns, questions, and by omission our
unknowns)
d) The unknowns or poorly understood aspects of the answers to
our questions will guide our future research
5. Listed what needs to be done
a) We discussed what needs to be done via postings
b) We decided to divide up the GCC Scenario into 5 categories to
guide our future research
6. We developed a Problem Statement
a) Which clearly identifies what the team is trying to solve
b) Which was discussed and posted
Category 1: Increasingly Severe Weather
Introduction
One of the most immediately dramatic affects of Global Climate Change is
severe weather events. Humanity seems to have a short attention span and an
even shorter memory. Forecasting dire events- projected to occur at some
unspecified time period in the future, or even a specified time period, seems to
have little impact on our collective psyches. Severe weather events however, do
seem to grab our attention.
What is the difference between “Weather” and “Climate”?
Weather is a term that applies to events that take place in the atmosphere
over a short period of time. For purposes of this paper, short term means
minutes, days, weeks, and perhaps months but not longer than that. Weather
terms might include sun, precipitation, clouds, temperature, wind, fronts,
pressure and humidity. Weather is the “now” or relatively soon condition of the
atmosphere.
Climate on the other hand, is what you would typically expect to occur in
the atmosphere over a longer time period, over a specific part of the planet. Time
periods here would be discussed in terms of seasons or years and longer.
Human life spans being what they are, could lead one to think that the climate
where they have lived is an unchanging thing, and has always remained a
constant. Climate terms might include hot, temperate, mild, harsh, freezing, wet,
humid, cold, or for those lucky enough to live in San Diego- “perfect”.
Discussions about climate would likely include the use of the word “average”, i.e.
average precipitation or average temperature by season.
Does Climate affect Weather, or the other way around?
Climate and weather are descriptive terms (see above), that describe
events that are not influenced by themselves, but by other factors. These factors
include, but are not limited to; elevation, proximity to a large body of water,
geography, proximity to large forested areas, season, latitude, composition of the
atmosphere, and possibly solar cycles.
What kinds of severe weather are anticipated?
Many scientists predict that there will be a continual average increase in
global temperatures over time. An increase in warming implies an increase in the
amount of energy in a system. Increases in the energy of a hurricane or tornado
for example can be devastating. Precipitation events including even snowstorms
and blizzards could become major destructive events. Wind by itself, if fed by
enough energy does not need to be a hurricane or a tornado to be destructive.
Any severe changes to climate could affect flora and fauna including
agriculture and other human activities.
What are the predicted costs human and otherwise?
More studies are needed to make “better” long term predictions, but costs
are predicted to run into the hundreds of billions of dollars to mitigate the affects
of severe weather events from global climate change for the short term (think
Hurricane Katrina in the U.S.). Greater still, and priceless, are the costs in terms
of loss of human life, human accomplishments, homes (not the structure, but the
home emotionally and historically), history, nature, and wildlife.
What kinds of interventions are possible, and at what cost?
Severe weather events can be predicted to happen, but not when and
where. The vast majority of interventions specific to severe weather events is not
known at this time, and would be post event. One possibility is prevention, but
would have to be addressed on a global scale dealing with climate change. Costs
would be enormous.
What first tipped off scientists that the Climate was changing?
Scientists have used historical records and data to discover that average
global temperatures have increased, and are accelerating in recent decades.
Other anecdotal evidence comes from specific local observations like shrinking
glaciers, and severe weather events.
How does this affect what people know about GCC? How about People’s
opinions about GCC?
Weather changes occur on a seemingly regular basis, and extremes are
always possible, so it is difficult to convince people that these events are the
result of or evidence of large scale change. Climate change occurs over a longer
period of time, so is easily written off as a “not in my lifetime” event. This
presents great challenges for affecting people’s opinions and ideas.
Category 2: Melting and thawing
Introduction
One of the largest potential impacts that global climate change will have
on the earth is rising sea levels. Much of the permafrost and arctic ice that is
found in the coldest regions on earth are melting at an unprecedented rate. This
melting of ice is adding large amounts of water to the earth’s oceans therefore
raising ocean levels on coasts around the globe. How much the ocean levels will
rise depends on where the ice that melts is located and how quickly it melts.
What is it that is melting and thawing?
Antarctica contains 90 percent of the world’s ice. The ice on the continent
of Antarctica is on average 7,000 feet thick. If all of the ice in the Antarctic ice
sheet melted, ocean levels would increase by 200 feet. While we don’t have to
worry about this kind of flooding just quite yet, ocean levels have risen about 6 –
8 inches in the last 100 years. This may not sound like much, but these rising
sea levels are already beginning to erode beaches especially during times of
high tide. The reason for this increase in global ocean levels is that the polar ice
caps are beginning to melt due to increased temperatures. Specifically, not just
the polar ice caps at either end of the earth are melting. Glaciers and snowfields
on numerous mountain ranges are also melting faster than they ever have
before.
Where is the ice melting?
The ice is melting at both ends of the earth in the polar ice caps. Also, as
I stated before, glaciers and snowfields on mountains worldwide are also melting.
The melting glaciers and snowfields pose local impacts, but for the most part do
not increase the global impact of climate change. What has scientists the most
concerned is the Greenland ice sheet. If this melts, it could cause sea levels to
increase a total of 23 feet by the end of the century. Melting on the top of the ice
is causing water to seep down deep into the ice and is casing the whole ice sheet
to move faster on the slicker surface. The north polar ice cap is melting quicker
than Antarctica because it has direct exposure to the sun. The ice there is
melting at a very fast rate and much of the thickest ice has already melted and
been replaced by one-year ice which is much thinner and melts very quickly
when temperatures heat up in the summer. Scientists think in the next couple of
years, the North Pole will be completely ice free during the summer.
What are the immediate and long-term impacts of melting polar ice?
The IPCC says that seas will rise at least 6 inches and at most 20 inches
by 2100 at the current rates of melting. The immediate effect of melting ice
around the world is mostly felt on low-lying coasts. Some coasts are slowly
starting to be eroded away and causing some damage to human structures as
well. Loss of habitat is of course also a concern for animals that live in coastal
regions. Sea levels have risen 6 – 8 inches in the past 100 years and we are
already beginning to see the effects of that. The IPCC determines that if carbon
dioxide emissions continue to increase and the earth’s temperatures continue to
warm, sea levels could rise up to 23 inches by the end of the century. However,
this is not taking into account the Greenland ice sheet which could cause an
additional 23 feet of sea level increase.
Loss of habitat to polar dwelling animals such as polar bears, penguins,
whales, seals and arctic foxes will also be an immediate effect of the melting ice.
Already, researchers have found drowned polar bears because the ice they use
to hunt on is now gone. The polar bears are also moving closer to cities to look
for food and are often times being shot. Penguins are unable to reproduce if they
don’t have enough ice to support their young. The youngest penguins are
beginning to drown because the ice doesn’t stay frozen long enough to allow
them to develop the ability to swim. The decrease in polar animal populations
will ultimately have an impact on arctic peoples as they will have less food to
hunt.
The long-term impacts are far greater and will cause millions of people to
be displaced from coastal areas around the world. Many major cities are located
on coastal property. As sea levels rise, people will be forced to move inland as
the oceans erode the beaches and begin to erode the land and flood low-lying
areas. Many cities are only about 6 feet above sea level, or in the case of New
Orleans, below sea level. These cities will feel the impacts first and people will
have to find new places to live. The impact of this will be felt inland and in
current rural areas that will ultimately become urban. Increased development will
be a by-product of this impact as new homes are constructed for people looking
to move inland.
Arctic ice usually creates cold air masses that are carried southward by
winds. These cold air masses bring cold weather to the central plains and east
coast of the United States. This cold air kills off many insects and keeps their
populations in check. Without certain cold air systems coming down from the
north, the insect will populations will continue to grow and wreak havoc on crops
and forests. Farmers also depend on freezing temperatures to grow winter
wheat in the heartland of America. Without this cold weather, they will not be
able to grow their crops and distribute the product throughout the country. This
could cause local food supplies to decrease.
Is it possible to mitigate the impacts of melting?
Currently, global climate change is happening and will continue to happen
for quite some time even if we were to stop all greenhouse gas emissions today.
The carbon cycle still affects the atmosphere, water, ice and land long after the
carbon is released or stored. Stored carbon in the polar ice caps from centuries
ago is just now being released. Remember that energy can be either created or
destroyed. The carbon has to go somewhere and currently that somewhere is
our atmosphere. If we were to get our emissions back to year 2000 rates, then
global temperature increases will slow down and melting will slow down.
The bottom line is that there is nothing that can be done about the melting
other than slowing the increase in global temperatures. The melting is a byproduct of the rise in temperatures and there is a lag that is associated with rising
temperatures and rate of melting. Reversing or slowing the increase in
temperatures is the only thing that will really help the overall melting process.
At what cost can the melting be mitigated?
The mitigation efforts are already underway as some countries are
imposing taxes on corporations that continue to emit carbon into the atmosphere.
Other countries have made a cap and trade system so that companies can still
emit greenhouse gases however there is a total cap on how much in the country
can emit as a whole. Non-profit agencies sometimes buy up these “carbon
credits” so as to prevent further emissions from being put into the atmosphere.
Large companies are not happy about being taxed because of the emissions
they are producing. Unfortunately, money tends to be a driving force for
businesses to make changes. Governmental policies could help to make
incentives for cleaner fuels and technologies that don’t include greenhouse gas
emissions. Naysayers of global climate change say that the increased taxes on
businesses will force businesses to lay off people and cut back on wages and
benefits. This may be true, but what needs to happen is businesses need to
begin to make changes in the way they produce things. It has to be a global and
national effort to change the way we produce energy and the burning of fossil
fuels needs to be decreased overall. Some countries are already getting better
at reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and looking for renewable sources of
energy such as wind and solar power.
Category 3: Ocean Changes (including rising sea levels &
temperatures)
Introduction
On our watery planet the climate is governed largely by vast oceans. Prior to the
1960s the oceans were viewed as tremendous masses of water whose variation
in temperature could only be seen over a geological timescale. Ideas began to
change at the start of the 1960s. Studies of clay extracted from the seabed,
supported by new theoretical ideas, suggested that ocean current patterns might
shift within mere thousands of years. Other studies began to build a picture of the
complex and surprisingly fragile circulation of the world’s interconnected ocean
system. Mining old data has also proven useful, revealing new insights. One
project burrowed through historical records to transcribe literally millions of
thermometer readings, assembling a database for the most basic of all climate
numbers — the temperatures within the seas. Since the world-ocean absorbs
dozens of times more heat than any other component of the climate system, it
was here if anywhere that a verifiable trend of global climate change should be
visible. The team found that the heat content of the upper oceans rose markedly
in the second half of the 20th century, in a pattern that neatly matched the
‘signature’ that computer modelers predicted from the greenhouse effect. In the
1980s, evidence from Greenland ice cores, supported by crude computer
models, showed that the North Atlantic circulation could switch radically within a
century or two. Fears arose that global warming might trigger such a switch,
which could wreak serious harm. Improved models, however, calculated that this
was unlikely to happen in the 21st century. What was much more certain was
that the oceans were rapidly warming and growing more acidic, exactly as
predicted by the greenhouse gas-driven global climate change theory.
Is coastal flooding the main concern?
Perhaps not the main concern, however it should be noted that with regard to the
Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts during the 20th century, the sea level rose 5 to 6
inches more than the global average. This is because these coastal lands are for
the most part, subsiding. Higher temperatures are expected to further raise sea
level by expanding ocean water, melting mountain glaciers and small ice caps,
and causing portions of Greenland and the polar ice sheets to melt. The
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the global average
sea level will rise between 0.6 and 2 feet (0.18 to 0.59 meters) in the next
century. Rising sea levels inundate wetlands and other low-lying lands, erode
beaches, intensify flooding, and increase the salinity of rivers, bays, and
groundwater tables. Some of these effects may be further compounded by other
effects of a changing climate.
Coastal marshes have generally kept pace with the slow rate of sea level rise
that has characterized the last several thousand yrs. Thus, the area of marsh has
expanded over time as new lands have been inundated. If in the future, sea level
rises faster than the ability of the marsh to keep pace, the marsh area will
contract. Additionally, measures that people take to protect private property from
rising sea level may have adverse effects on the environment and on public uses
of beaches and waterways. Some property owners and state and local
governments are already starting to take measures to prepare for the
consequences of rising sea level, which often result in total loss of marsh.
How does this affect currents in the Pacific Ocean?
El Niño-Southern Oscillation, often called simply ENSO, is a climate pattern that
occurs across the tropical on average every 5 yrs., but over a period which varies
from 3 to 7 yrs. & is therefore, widely & significantly know as “quasi-periodic”.
ENSO is well known for its causal association with floods, droughts, & other
weather disturbances in many regions of the world, including the North American
continent. In North America El Niño creates warmer-than-average winters in the
upper Midwest states and the Northwest, thus reduced snowfall than average
during winter. Meanwhile, central and southern California, northwest Mexico &
the southwestern U.S. become significantly wetter while the northern Gulf of
Mexico states and Southeast states (including tidewater & northeast Mexico) are
wetter and cooler than average during the El Niño phase of the oscillation.
Summer is wetter in the intermountain regions of the U.S. The Pacific Northwest
states, on the other hand, tend to experience dry, mild but foggy winters and
warm, sunny and early springs. El Niño is also associated with increased wavecaused coastal erosion along the United States Pacific Coast, and has been
suggested to be linked with the incidence of north Atlantic tropical cyclones as
well.
The Atlantic?
A mounting body of global climate change evidence has scientists increasingly
concerned about the vulnerability of the Gulf StreamNorth Atlantic current
system to rising temperatures.
Acting like a ‘conveyor belt’, the Gulf StreamNorth Atlantic current transports
warm, surface waters toward the North Pole and cold, deep waters toward the
Equator. These warm surface waters push northward, releasing heat into the
atmosphere & becoming cooler and denser. By taking warm water from the
equatorial Pacific Ocean and carrying it into the colder North Atlantic, the Gulf
Stream warms up the eastern United States & northwestern Europe by about 5
degrees Celsius (roughly 9 degrees Fahrenheit), making those regions much
more hospitable than they would be otherwise. As they do, the waters sink and
then flow in the deep ocean (i.e. underneath the northward current) in the
opposite (i.e. southward) direction. Moreover, the Gulf StreamNorth Atlantic
circulation moves heat toward the Arctic, and this helps moderate wintertime
temperatures in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere.
The main concern arises from the fact that there are a number of mechanisms
that could inject large amounts of freshwater into the Nordic seas @ the precise
region that is critical to the Gulf StreamNorth Atlantic ‘conveyor belt’. These
include:
• pooling and release of glacial meltwater,
• collapse of an ice shelf followed by a surge in glacier movement, or
• lubrication of a glacier's base through increased melting.
As Greenland’s glaciers & icecap melt, large volumes of freshwater will released
into the Nordic seas (i.e. the ocean between Iceland, Greenland & Norway),
which could have a major impact on the Gulf StreamNorth Atlantic ‘conveyor
belt’.
The Gulf of Mexico?
Although not yet proven, many scientist suspect that global climate change may
be linked to a trend of increasing intensification of tropical storms. If this proves
true, this would mean that certain coastal areas, such as the Gulf Coast would
experience an increased frequency & intensity of storm surge, accelerated
erosion of barrier islands, impacts on estuaries, impacts on aquifer lenses,
flooding and storm-associated wind damage.
The Arctic?
Given that the northern Arctic is an intermittently frozen ocean surrounded by
land, significant fluctuations of icepack patterns will likely have far reaching
consequences for highly adapted fauna (e.g. polar bear) & fauna (e.g. marine
algae blooms). The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), an international
project to collect and evaluate knowledge on climate variability, global warming,
and increased UV radiation in the Arctic and their effects on the Arctic region,
reported that the ecosystems & communities of the Arctic region are among the
first to be affected by global warming and would likely continue to experience
greater warming than the rest of the world. Recent evidence has validated these
concerns.
The Arctic continues to warm at a rate about twice as fast as rest of the world.
Scientists, as well as the indigenous people of the Arctic, have noticed dramatic
changes in the Arctic environment that has affected ecosystems and wildlife,
human settlements and infrastructure, and the way of life of indigenous peoples.
Observed impacts in Alaska include the northward migration of treelines,
increased melting of permafrost and the release of carbon dioxide from the
thawing tundra, alterations in timing and extent of caribou migrations, and
changes in competition between species (e.g. arctic & red fox).
Will these changes affect weather?
Yes. See above answers for explanation & specific examples.
Will these changes affect shipping/warships?
Depends upon impact to ports, such as displacement due to storm &/or sea-level
rise damage. Persistent effects upon the weather patterns (e.g. prolonged storm
season &/or expanded storm ranges) could also be problematic to established
shipping lanes & warship deployments.
What are the economic costs of rising sea levels/coastal flooding?
At this pt. it is unknown, but informed speculation would suggest that the events
of the 2005 hurricane season, including the devastation wrought by hurricane
Katrina on New Orleans may turn-out to be an indication of things to come, in
which case the costs to the U.S. economy would be extremely high. Should such
extreme weather events occur frequently enough, this could have crippling
effects on the economy.
Category 4: Rising Temperature of the Atmosphere
Introduction
This section is Matthew McClellan’s, and we are hoping he will be able to
catch up at some point. We have left this spot open for him if he can. If this does
not happen and Jerry lets us know that he will not be in our group/class, our team
will decide how to divide up his part of the assignment for future assignments.
Category 5: Changes in Flora and Fauna (Native and
Agricultural)
Introduction
The survival of the organisms on our planet is largely governed by climatic
conditions. Although it is true that many of Earth’s organisms are endangered by
even small changes in global climate, there are some that seem to benefit from
these changes. Any organism unable to survive its environmental conditions and
incapable of relocating to more favorable ones is in danger of demise. The basic
needs of all organisms (habitat, fresh water, food) are affected by climate change
in varying degrees depending on the species. One well-studied result of global
climate change is that springtime “events” are occurring earlier in the year.
When the changes in seasonal events trickle down, havoc can be created
throughout the ecosystem. The overall effect of global climate change may take
decades to emerge, so the immediate focus is on what is clearly visible at this
point.
What is the threat of GCC to Natural Places?
The changes experienced by natural places will vary by location. Temperate
areas with four seasons are likely to experience more precipitation and a longer
growing season, which in many cases could be a positive impact. Areas which
tend to be more arid are likely to experience even less precipitation with
increased temperatures, causing a reduction in crop production in already
stressed areas.
Ecosystem changes vary greatly depending on the unique characteristics of each
location. Even slight changes could cause the extinction of some species, while
others flourish, adapt, or simply relocate. The most pressing matter is the rapid
pace at which these changes seem to be taking place. Slower evolutionary
changes require a much slower pace to allow the adaptation of species to fit with
environmental changes. Although some species will benefit from the current
global climate changes, a greater number are likely to experience detrimental
effects.
What is the threat of GCC to Agriculture?
The three major aspects of global climate change which could significantly affect
agricultural production are changes in rainfall patterns, temperature, and CO2
levels in the atmosphere. In each of these shifts, the damage or benefit is
relevant to the individual species and the specific location of the event. Even
small variances in the normal climate pattern can affect the natural cycle of an
ecosystem.
Changes in rainfall patterns, although in a few instances may be beneficial, are
likely to interfere with crop production in many areas. The growing of crops can
be more difficult under both circumstances, increased or decreased rainfall;
however, drought situations are typically the most devastating to agriculture.
Another issue that has greatly impacted agriculture in recent years is untimely
rainfall – too wet or dry to plant, too wet to harvest. The timing of these events is
crucial to the agricultural process.
Issues associated with decreased precipitation include situations such as
widespread desertification in some areas, decreased crop production, and even
decreased livestock production. Dry soil conditions, at any time during the
season, can interfere with crop production: reduced germination, poor plant
growth resulting in smaller, weaker plants, and less tolerance to pests. All of
these issues can result in lower yields. Livestock are affected by both a lack of
water and poor grazing conditions which can be caused by reduced rainfall.
Areas with increased rainfall will benefit during the growing season as long as the
increase is not dramatic enough to cause flooding. Obviously, flooding destroys
standing crops, but can also delay planting and harvesting which also can be
detrimental to overall crop yields.
Changes in temperature can affect the length of growing seasons and the variety
of crops which can be grown in an area. The outcome of these changes could
result in famine in some areas, while having little or no negative effects in others.
Areas which are likely to be most subjected to the negative impacts of increased
temperature are those in which summer temperatures already adversely affect
crop production, previously drought-prone areas, and locations in which
increased soil evaporation rates will increase the need for irrigation.
Changes in growing seasons can be beneficial in some instances. Longer
growing seasons in some areas can allow greater crop yields as long as water is
plentiful, either as rainfall or for irrigation. Increased temperatures at higher
latitudes could allow for crop production in new areas where they were previously
unable to grow.
Agriculture is intimately connected to the continuation of recurring weather
patterns; therefore, any changes in weather trends are likely to impact overall
crop production. Even one year of reduced agricultural production can have a
devastating world-wide effect which is not easily compensated for by future
production. The fact that those areas of the globe which seem to be most
impacted by the climate changes are those which can least afford to recuperate
for the lost yields.
How do we mitigate these losses?
Attempts to mitigate the losses of flora/fauna projected to occur as a result of
global climate change vary from improving personal choices to studies in
reducing the methane produced by flatulence in cows and other animals.
Although many of the answers are directed toward the long-term global climate
change scenario, there are a few measures which could have some immediate
impact on ecosystem health.
One way to accommodate for changes in crop production is to increase exports
from areas of increased production to those of reduced production. Although this
sounds like an easy solution, it is apparent after multiple past episodes of
inadequate famine relief in various parts of the world that food transport to the
area of need is more complex than it sounds. In addition, more research into
drought resistant varieties could produce species which can be used to increase
crop yields in drier areas.
Overall losses in flora/fauna must be addressed by mitigation in the causes of
long term global climate change that can be controlled by human actions. The
fact that future disasters may be averted by changing current behaviors is a
compelling argument, but not indisputably proven. If action now will decrease
these changes, the reduction in the use of fossil fuels seems to be the most
logical step. Other global temperature reduction measures, such as using sulfate
particles release by aircraft or hot air balloons to repair the holes in the ozone
layer over the poles may have more negative results than positive over time.
A more immediate method of conserving endangered species would be moving
them to other locations with favorable conditions. The effect on the current
ecosystem must be considered before inserting any new plant or animal.
Invasive species are already a problem for many ecosystems. The Arctic polar
bear provides an example of the thought process behind the movement of
species – if polar bears are relocated to the Antarctic, will they greatly reduce the
population of penguins and other native species?
Who will decide what should be saved and which are to go extinct?
The final decisions on how to act in order to avoid widespread extinctions of
species is likely to be made in the political realms; however, the scientific
community must provide the essential data necessary for making informed
legislative decisions. In a perfect world, decisions on specific plans to save a
species or ecosystem could be made within the nation in which it exists;
however, lack of action in some cultures has proven to be detrimental for many
areas (i.e., the Amazon Rain Forest).
Because political and economic clout are key factors, it is up to citizens to make
clear their beliefs and opinions on such issues in order to pressure elected
officials and companies to make the right environmental choices. It is only logical
to have those with the most expertise to provide guidance when making these
decisions (i.e., you go to a cardiologist for treatment of a heart conditions as
opposed to an ophthalmologist).
Who will decide what should be saved and which are to go extinct?
The decision on which species should be saved and which should be allowed to
go extinct will need to be examined using a variety of criteria including: the
probability that the attempt will be successful, the uniqueness of the species, the
impact the steps taken to save the species will have on other species (i.e. will the
species successfully co-exist in a new location).
Unfortunately, the ultimate goal in many circumstances will only take into account
to impact on humans. Although in some cases, humans have been allowed to
feel a detrimental effect due to conservation efforts, the long term results of
conservation are generally concentrated on species which have a direct impact
on human well-being or financial interests.
What are the economic costs of the loss of agricultural species and
Natural/Native species?
The loss of agricultural species and natural/native species are likely to have the
most pronounced impact on communities which are already environ-mentally
unstable (i.e. greater drought in Northern Africa). Changes in ocean temperature
have already had measurable effects on the fishing industry (fewer fish, higher
prices) and similar effects could be imminent for other agricultural based species.
Decreased crop production would result in higher food prices, seed prices (for
replanting), and animal feed prices. Higher costs of seed and animal feed could
result in a reduction in the number of crop producing farms and therefore an even
higher cost of food.
Economic stress in some countries as a result of decreased crop yields could
directly affect the overall global economy.
Will some species benefit from GCC?
Beneficial effects of GCC for some species include the increase of atmospheric
CO2 and longer growing seasons. An increase in atmospheric CO2 would allow
for greater CO2 uptake in some plant species resulting in more photosynthesis
producing larger, healthier plants in some species. The improved growth of
these plants will also benefit any organism dependent on that plant species for
food. Longer growing seasons and the ability to grow a wider variety of crops in
some areas will have the same beneficial effects.