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Past Abrupt Changes in Climate and Terrestrial Ecosystems Jack Williams University of Wisconsin-Madison Kevin Burke University of Wisconsin-Madison Matt McGlone Landcare Research, New Zealand Barry Carlsen @IceAgeEcologist HiRes Workshop, June 1-3, 2015 Rapid Rates of Climate & Ecological Change: Two distinct sets of risk Species Rate of Response >> Climate Change à Adaptive lags; heightened extinction risk, may require management intervention Species Rate of Response >> Rate of Climate Change à Tipping points, regime shifts, ecological surprises Even slowest IPCC scenario is faster than anything in history of human civilization Holocene annual(?) temperature trends Holocene: ~0.8ºC cooling RCP2.6 (low): 0.7-1.7ºC Marcott et al. 2013 Science IPCC 2013 AR5 WGI Chap. 12 Fig. 12.5 Projected changes in global mean temperature by 2100AD How do we manage ecosystems experiencing rates of change we’ve never seen? Can species keep up? Species movement capabilities vs. climate velocities IPCC 2013 AR5 WG2 Fig. SPM Complex systems may have tipping points, alternative stable states, rapid regime shifts Mean annual rainfall (mm) Scheffer & Carpenter 2003 TREE; Staver et al. 2011 Science Abrupt Changes Common in the Past PETM Last deglaciation PLEISTOCENE || HOLOCENE Zachos et al. 2005 Science, Rahmstorf 2003 GRL, Grootes et al. 1993 Nature, Booth et al. 2012 Ecology DO Events Holocene tree collapses Causes of past abrupt ecological changes 1) Strong extrinsic forcing (hammers), 2) Tipping points, thresholds, and other feedbacks intrinsic to ecological systems (canoes) 3) Feedbacks with other earth system components (loops) Precipitation Rates Tropical Tree Density Photo: The Destruction Company http://www.luxuo.com/membership/ the-destruction-company.html Transpiration Rates Each lets us answer different questions: How quickly can ecological systems respond to rapid climate change? Where are the tipping points and tipping elements in ecological systems? Can we develop early warning signals? What are the relative contributions of extrinsic and intrinsic processes to past abrupt changes? Photo: The Destruction Company http://www.luxuo.com/membership/ the-destruction-company.html Extrinsic Forcing Case Study: Vegetation Responses to Last Deglaciation Temperature Variations Since the LGM Large Climatic Forcing: • Global temperature: rose ~5ºC • Abrupt regional change: 9-15ºC in 5-60 yrs PLEISTOCENE || HOLOCENE Large Biotic Responses: (Grootes et al. 1993 Nature) • Species ranges shift by 102 to 103km • Reshuffle into no-analog communities 21,000 15,000 11,000 7,000 Modern Spruce Pollen % Ice Ice % Ice % % No Data Williams et al. (2004) Ecological Monographs How fast did tree species respond? Gerzensee, Allerød warming Pinus arrives (800 years) Juniper expands (<8-16years) Ammann et al. 2013 P-Cubed Meerfelder Maar, YD cooling Windiness increases & Tundra expands: (no lag) YD onset at Greenland Rach et al. 2014 Nat. Geo. Kråkenes Lake, Holocene warming Betula arrives: (700 years) Heath expands (250 years) Artic flora collapse & Salix ↑ (no lag) Birks 2015 Holocene Intrinsic Tipping Points: Vegetation Responses to Holocene Aridification North Africa: • Aridification between 9ka and 5ka • Grassland ->Desert • Abrupt and time-transgressive local changes North American Great Plains: • Aridification between 11ka and 6ka • Forest->Prairie, Dunes activate, etc. • Abrupt and time-transgressive local changes Hoeltzmann et al. 1998 GBC Photo credit: Joe Mason North Africa • • • • Gradual insolation forcing Regional aridification 9ka to 5ka Locally abrupt changes Time-transgressive & rapid local declines in rainfall • Differential & rapid collapses of species within sites Time-transgressive changes in hydrology Shanahan et al. 2014 Nature Geo. North Africa • • • • Lake Yoa Gradual insolation forcing Regional aridification 9ka to 5ka Locally abrupt changes Time-transgressive responses across sites • Differential timing among taxa within sites Kropelin et al. 2008 Science Great Plains: Similar to North Africa • Gradual insolation forcing • Regional aridification 11ka to 6ka • Multiple System Responses: • Dunes activate, • C4->C3 grasslands, • Forest->Prairie, • Lake levels drop • Locally rapid and time-transgressive Time-transgressive changes in forest->prairie shifts Shanahan et al. 2014 Nature Geo. Summary 1. Two distinct risks for ecological systems during rapid 21stcentury climate change: A. Failure of species to keep up with rapid climate change B. Tipping points and ecological rates of response much faster than environmental forcing 2. Many past abrupt events, caused by rapid extrinsic forcing, intrinsic tipping points, and vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks 3. Last deglaciation: Fast and slow vegetation responses to abrupt climate change: near-zero to centuries 4. Holocene aridification: regionally slow, locally abrupt. Caused by ecological tipping points? Can we model this? 5. Need more study of paired high-resolution studies of abrupt climatic & ecological change Thanks & Acknowledgments Ma# McGlone & Kevin Data Contributors Brigi#a Ammann, Hilary Birks, Achim Brauer, André Lo#er, Oliver Rach, Tim Shanahan, Willy Tinner, and Willem van der Knaap Funding and Infrastructure: NSF Neotoma Paleoecology DB Bryson Climate, People, & Environment Program Further Reading: Williams, J.W., Blois, J.L., & Shuman, B.N. (2011) Extrinsic and intrinsic forcing of abrupt ecological change: Case studies from the late Quaternary. Journal of Ecology, 99, 664-677. Williams, J.W. & Burke, K. (in press). Past abrupt changes in climate and terrestrial ecosystems. In Climate Change and Biodiversity (eds T. Lovejoy & L. Hannah). Species ranges already shifting • 16.9 km/year (Chen et al. 2011) Chen et al. 2011 Science We live in a rapidly changing world RCP8.5 (high) 2.6-4.8ºC by AD 2100 RCP6.0 1.4-3.1ºC by AD 2100 RCP4.5 1.1-2.6ºC by AD 2100 RCP2.6 (low) 0.7-1.7ºC by AD 2100 IPCC 2013 AR5 WGI Chap. 12 Fig. 12.5 Projected changes in global mean temperature by 2100AD How quickly can species adapt to abrupt climate change? Where are the tipping points and tipping elements? In a rapidly changing world, we must: • Slow the rates of processes harmful to species of concern, ecosystem health, and ecosystem services • Accelerate adaptive processes • Buy time for species to adapt We live in a rapidly changing world http://www.igbp.net/globalchange/greatacceleration