Download 2. Products - Dragoness - Nansen Environmental and Remote

Specific Support Action
Specific Support Action
DRAGONESS
DRAGONESS
DRAGON in support of harmonizing European and Chinese marine
monitoring for Environment and Security System
Making an inventory of Chinese and European capacities of marine monitoring for environment
and security including routine use of Earth observation data.
D4.2: 2nd Report on assessment of current status on the Ocean and
coastal information products and services in China
DRAGONESS_D4.2.doc
Project No. 030902
Sixth Framework Programme
Priority GMES: Aeronautics and Space
Start date of project: 01.09.07
Duration: 36 months
Document Release Sheet
Book captain:
Name (Company)
Sign
Date
Approval
Task Manager (Company)
Sign
Date
Endorsement:
Coordinator (NERSC)
Sign
Date
Distribution:
All DRAGONESS
consortium, or
Sub-task members,
or
Selected partners
Change Record
Issue/
Rev
1.0
Date
Page(s)
18/09/2009 all
Description of Change
Author
Creation of the document
X. Song
Q.Liu
L. Wan
Y. Li
C.Zhao
M. Fang
Y.Gao
Z. Wang
J. Zhu
H. Etienne
Table of Contents
1. Publishable Executive Summary.................................................................. 6
2. Products ..................................................................................................... 7
Ocean Forecasting ..................................................................................................... 7
2.1.1.
Products elements.......................................................................................... 7
2.1.2.
Forecast methods and models ......................................................................... 7
2.1.2.1. Sea Temperature ........................................................................................... 7
2.1.2.2. Ocean Wave ................................................................................................. 8
2.1.2.3. Storm Surge .................................................................................................. 9
2.1.2.4. Sea Ice ......................................................................................................... 9
2.1.2.5. Harmful Red tide ......................................................................................... 10
2.1.2.6. Tide and Tidal Current ................................................................................. 10
2.1.2.7. Oil Spill ..................................................................................................... 11
2.1.3.
Out of the subjectTime scales ....................................................................... 11
2.2. Ocean monitoring .................................................................................................... 11
2.2.1.
Marine hydrography and meteorology ........................................................... 11
2.2.2.
Storm Surge ................................................................................................ 12
2.2.3.
Sea Ice ....................................................................................................... 12
2.2.4.
Red tide and Eco-Monitoring ........................................................................ 13
2.3. Data collecting ........................................................................................................ 13
2.3.1.
Marine Data Research .................................................................................. 13
2.3.2.
China Argo Data Center ............................................................................... 14
2.3.3.
China Delayed-mode Database for NEAR-GOOS ........................................... 14
2.3.4.
Other data ................................................................................................... 14
2.1.
3. Service and users ...................................................................................... 14
Services : ................................................................................................................ 14
3.1.1.
Forecasting service: ..................................................................................... 14
3.1.2.
Monitoring service ...................................................................................... 15
3.1.3.
Downloading service ................................................................................... 16
3.2. Users : .................................................................................................................... 16
3.2.1.
Public......................................................................................................... 16
3.2.2.
Government ................................................................................................ 16
3.2.3.
Special ....................................................................................................... 17
3.1.
4. Comparison between China and Europe .................................................... 18
4.1.1.
4.1.2.
4.1.3.
Existing problems compared with European ocean wave forecasting products ... 18
The main characteristics of the European ocean forecasting systems ................. 19
Main differences between China and Europe .................................................. 23
5. Glossary: .................................................................................................. 23
Table of Figures and tables
Figure 1 Argo data flow chart
Figure 2 Coverage examples of Mercator Project
Figure 3 Global Coverage of the Measurements for validation in European operational ocean
forecasting systems
Table 1 Service to users
1. Publishable Executive Summary
The major task for this second period was to evaluate the potential use and sustainability of
products and service for ocean environmental monitoring and security by using spaceborne, in-situ
observing data and modelling, especially for those that can be transferred from current GMES and
GEOSS services. This has been achieved by a report corresponding to deliverable D4.2 as was
scheduled by delivery plan.
This report describes the detail production include types, ocean variables, and performance indices.
Services include added values, monitoring and warning.
China has established national standards for the Marine environment forecast. One of them is the
"Storm tide, Ocean waves, Tsunami and Sea Ice Disaster Emergency Plans". The other one is the
"Marine forecasting And Warning Announcement". The Wave forecast and warning announcement
(GB/T19721) has been implemented officially in 2006.
Finally, this report presents the following project to construct the future European Marine Core
Service.
2. Products
2.1.
2.1.1.
Ocean Forecasting
Products elements
China Part:
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC) is in charge of collecting and
disseminating the real-time data from world and national observation, performing marine
environmental forecast, pre-warning of marine disaster and providing service and technical supports
for marine economy, marine management and national safety. The main products include ocean
wave, storm surge, tsunami, harmful alga bloom (red tide), sea ice, sea current, sea temperature and
salinity, El Niño, beach forecast, oil-spill forecast, sea surface height and marine weather of China
seas.
Three forecasting centers of the three Branch of the State Oceanic Administration in charge of their
seas forecast different domain, including North Sea Branch forecasting center, East Sea Branch
forecasting center and South Sea Branch forecasting center.
The National Marine Data and Information Service (NMDIS) manage the tide data recorded from
the tidal stations along Chinese coasts and is in charge of the tidal prediction and tidal current
analysis. NMDIS is also responsible for publishing "Chinese Sea level Bulletin" every year.
Other forecasting centers in province and cities focus on typical forecast elements, mainly including
storm surge, wave, sea temperature, tides and marine disaster warning information.
Europe Part:
The operational systems that combine available observations to produce analysis and forecasts of
ocean conditions (currents, temperature, salinity, etc...) for the global ocean and regional seas of
Europe. User product applications describing how the data and information produced by the
operational systems is used in practical marine applications : offshore industry support, ship
routing, improved wave forecasts, oil spills, ecosystems.Data search is the main portal to access and
download data and model output from the system.
2.1.2.
Forecast methods and models
2.1.2.1. Sea Temperature
Sea Temperature forecasting methods include the empirical forecasting method, the mathematicalstatistical method and the numerical forecasting method. The SST empirical forecasting is based on
SST’s continuity, periodic, similarity and its relationship to other parameters.
Statistic forecast method is mainly used on sea temperature trend forecast. If the numerical weather
forecast could not predict correct and provide atmospheric forcing fields for a long time scale, the
method is useful to forecast like weekly, ten-day, monthly, etc.
The present numerical system including global, Pacific, Northwest Pacific, China Seas, Bohai Sea,
South China Seas and small port is based on global models like MOM4, regional ocean models, like
HYCOM, POM, FVCOM, ROMS, etc.
The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC) has established ocean current
numerical model based on MOM model for the global ocean, HYCOM for the Pacific. The regional
numerical models are POM model for China Seas and FVCOM model for lianyungang port.
During the last two years (2008-2009), Institude of Atmospheric Physics(IAP) has developed a
preoperational ocean data assimilation forecasting system for Chinese Waters.
The model is the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), with a horizontal resolution of 1/8
degree and 22 vertical layers. The model domain covers the South China Sea (SCS), East China
Sea, Yellow Sea and Japan Sea. The boundary conditions are provided by a coarser, larger domain
HYCOM simulation.
The assimilation scheme is an ensemble optimal interpolation is developed for the system. The
GHRSST Sea surface temperature products and the Jason-1 along track SLA observations can be
assimilated into the model.
2.1.2.2. Ocean Wave
The ocean wave forecasting service was started in the late-1980s in China., The forecasting services
in China seas and the northwest Pacific Ocean are broadcasted in television and stations everyday.
The ocean wave system has been established in NMEFC, which includes the ocean wave
information acquisition system, the ocean wave analysis, the forecasting system and the wave
forecast service
In the fields of the global ocean wave operational forecasting system, China is still at the
preliminary stage. Some forecasting centres have carried out the global ocean wave forecasting
experiment based on the WaveWatch.
Ocean wave real-time analysis and short-term forecasting service covers the china seas and the
northwest Pacific. Numerical forecast includes wind wave, swell, period, main wave direction,
intensity and motive directions by using WAM4 model and SWAN model. The products are
provided through the internet and pre-warning information are released on CCTV and are daily
supplied directly to the users. All these have bring an obvious social and economic benefit.
2.1.2.3. Storm Surge
NMEFC has developed a high resolution typhoon storm surge numerical model with nesting
techniques. The main improvement lies in model horizontal resolution and the grid nesting
techniques which avoid the boundary extraneous wave and enhance the model stability. The model
has a 3.7 km resolution and was running operationally from 2003. More than 15 typhoon surges had
been already simulated. The relative error is less than 30% at the 70% of the observation stations.
Concerning the storm surge early-warning and forecasting, the Shanghai Marine Environment
Forecasting Station has established the strong storm surge forecasting workstation, especially
paying much more attention to the typhoon surge forecasting which includes three sub-modules,
i.e., the expert reasoning subsystem, the statistical empirical forecasting subsystem and the
numerical modeling subsystem. The average errors for high water level in 24hr and 48hr are 17cm
and 23cm respectively, and the time difference for high water level is 9min which appears to be of
the same accuracy as the international forecasting systems.
2.1.2.4. Sea Ice
Several institutions in China are carrying out the research on the sea ice, such as NMEFC, the
National Satellite Ocean Application Service (NSOAS), the National Marine Environment
Monitoring Center (NMEMC) in Dalian, Tianjin Univ., Dalian Univ. of Science and Technology
and etc. NMEFC is in charge of sea ice forecasting service; NMEMC owns the in situ sea ice
observations and the sea ice mechanics testing facilities; Tianjin Univ. and Dalian Univ. of Science
and Technology are carrying out some studies mainly in the sea ice mechanics and the
Qinhuangdao central ocean station of the North Sea Branch of SOA owns the capability of the sea
ice in situ observation and the sea ice mechanics experiment facilities.
The sea ice forecasting mainly include the extra long-range forecasting, the ice growth, the ice
ablation and the ice flow. The sea ice extra long-range forecasting is mainly related to the solar
activity, ENSO and its relation to the sea ice in Bohai Sea.NMEFC has developed its own sea ice
forecasting numerical model.
2.1.2.5. Harmful Red tide
The red tide forecasting techniques may be divided into the empirical analysis method, the
statistical method and the eco-dynamic numerical model method based on the forecasting theory
which is considered to be the most prospective method in red tide forecasting.
The empirical analysis forecasting method is mainly based on the variations of the environment
factors during the red tide process to forecast its occurrence. The environment factors include the
meteorological conditions (wind, rainfall, temperature, illumination and etc.), the physical
oceanography parameters (tide, ocean current, front, temperature and etc.), as well as the ecology
factors (nutritive elements such as nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon and etc., red tide ecology
characteristics like photoaxis, hastens and etc.). The probability statistics forecasting model includes
multi-variation regression statistical model and nonlinear model. The multi-variation statistical
method is to analyze the variations of the environment factors during red tide processes, and finds
the main environment factors controlling the red tides to create certain discrimination equations for
forecasting red tides. The nonlinear method includes neural network models The dynamical
numerical model is mainly based on the mechanism of red tide occurrence, while the model
simulates red tide occurrence, development, withering processes by using the physical - chemistry biology coupling eco-dynamic numerical model.
2.1.2.6. Tide and Tidal Current
NMDIS manages the tide data recorded from the stations along Chinese coast and is in charge of
the tidal prediction and tidal current analysis. NMDIS is also responsible for publishing the yearly
"Chinese Sea level Bulletin" every year.
The tidal current numerical model was mainly two-dimensional before 1986. Fang Guohong (1986)
calculated the tidal current in China Seas; Zhao Baoren et al. (1994) simulated the tidal current in
Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and the East China Sea; Zhou Huamin et al. (2005) calculated the tidal wave
systems in Bohai Sea after considering the different tidal constituent interaction and sea bottom
friction influenceThe result showed a good agreement with in situ data. The North Sea forecasting
center of State Oceanic Administration has developed a three dimensional ocean current numerical
model and the forecasting system for the Bohai Sea tidal current (Zhang Yongmei et al, 2005).
2.1.2.7. Oil Spill
The pollution caused by oceanic oil exploitation and transportation is an important problem and
needs to be urgently solved. An emergency forecasting system for the drift and diffusion of oil spill
at sea has been established in NMEFC. More in formations: which currents? From where? What
kind of drifting model? Who can use it?
2.1.3.
Out of the subjectTime scales
All the marine environment elements have 24-72 hours as the forecasting aging, which after a 24 hour analysis. Marine disasters like ocean wave and storm surge have emergency warning every 3
hours. Tsunami warning has no time restrict. Once it occurs, NMEFC will provide warning as soon
as possible. Sea temperature, sea ice and other elements have weekly and monthly forecasting
products. Sea ice has longer scale products. The time scales are based on different elements and
users’ demands.
2.2.
2.2.1.
Ocean monitoring
Marine hydrography and meteorology
The study and development of automatic shore-based observation technology in marine make it
possible for monitoring instruments to be manufactured as a complete sensor series to devices and
systems. For example, a study on a high-accuracy Conductivity Temperature Depth (CTD) profiler
technology can lead to the development of a self-contained CTD profiler and direct-reading CTD
with a maximum designed sampling depth of 6.000 meters (the actual maximum sampling depth is
more than 5.000 meters.) The accuracy of a temperature-measuring thermistor is within 0.003゜C.
The accuracy of conductivity with a three-electrode cell reaches 0.003 square meters per centimeter.
In addition, a CTD sealing and testing laboratory can be set up, with a temperature fluctuation field
and an uniform constant temperature within 0.0003C.
High-frequency ground wave radar measurement technology on sea surface dynamic environmental
has been developed these years. Tests at tlxed points in the sea were carried out by applying the
single or double-radar samples, with the distribution pattern of the radial current vectors during a
storm plotted. The maximum measuring distance by a medium-range radar is 200 kilometers for sea
current and direction of wind and 150 kilometers for wave height and wind velocity, among which
the measuring error for the current velocity is three to six centimeters per second with the error for
current direction at 20゜.
The maximum measuring distance by a long-distance range radar is more than 370 kilometers for
sea current and wind direction and more than 180 kilometers for wind velocity and wave height.
The measuring error for velocity is 12 to 20 centimeters per second and is 20 ゜ for current
direction.
2.2.2.
Storm Surge
The National Center of Ocean Technology in Tianjin has finished the project entitled “The research
of coastal wind storm surge real-time monitoring and forecasting and application” , which achieved
five main results:
1 development of the tide and wind speed / direction real-time monitoring facilities. This system
can operate automatically.
2 Establishment of the wireless data transmission network at ultra-short waveband.
3 Establishment of the system for the monitoring data transmission and real-time service data
updating. The whole system monitors the hydro-meteorological parameters along Tianjin coast in
real time.
4 Development of the real-time monitoring software, the network operation software, the
visualization software, the tidal analysis and forecasting software, the short-term storm surge
analysis and forecasting software, and all kinds of graphs drawing software. This project had also
established an information service system which can carry out data sampling, data processing,
astronomical tide prediction and storm surge forecasting.
2.2.3.
Sea Ice
Sea ice monitoring uses two main different methods: the aviation and the satellite monitoring. The
aviation monitoring usescamera, microwave radiometer, side-looking radar, usually operated by the
aviation group that belongs to the North Sea Branch of SOA. The satellite remote sensing
monitoring uses the NOAA and the HY-1 satellite data to determine sea ice parameters such as sea
ice scope, drift velocity, ice category etc.
2.2.4.
Red tide and Eco-Monitoring
Concerning the red tide monitor and the forecast by satellite remote sensing, Huang Weigen et
al.(2004), from the Second Institute of oceanography of SOA, monitored the Zhejiang sea area red
tides by using water color and SST variations and tracked the red tide process. Wang Qimao et al
(2004), from the National satellite ocean application service of SOA, proposed to use the ratio of
CCD channel 2 and channel 1 to monitor red tides in Bohai Sea and it showed the capability of the
HY-1 data in red tide monitoring.
The study of Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD)-measuring technology is mainly focused on the
development of COD-measuring techniques for the flow injection method of potassium
permanganate and the method by gas phase ozone. For this, two types of instruments were
developed. One instrument uses potassium permanganate as a strong oxidation agent based upon the
chemiluminescence’s principle when the interaction between the gases phases ozone and the
organic pollutants into the water samples. The other instrument was developed to measure the
photoluminescence spectra of organic material and to identify the property and content of the
pollutants. Thus, the COD value of the water sample can subsequently be determined, with a
detection limit of 0.5 milligrams per liter with no additional chemical reagents needed.
2.3.
Data collecting
The NMDIS is responsible for the centralized management of national marine basic data, and
establishment, maintenance and management of the marine basic databases; collection, processing
and management of marine data both at home and abroad, and the international data exchange,
carrying out the researches on the processing technologies of marine data, working on marine data
standards and specifications, making marine data products, building and developing the marine
environmental data and information system. It takes charge of the business of World Data
Center(WDC) for Oceanography Tianjin of China and the China Argo Data Center. It can provide
the analysis and assessment service with respect to all kinds of marine data products and the marine
environmental condition.
2.3.1.
Marine Data Research
The Marine Data Research Division is the center for the collection, processing, analysis, archiving,
maintenance and service of comprehensive marine data which include marine hydrology, marine
meteorology, marine geology, geophysics, marine biology, marine chemistry, pollution and so on.
The Division takes charge of collecting all kinds of Chinese and foreign marine data, conducting the
quality control, standardization and archiving of these data, establishing and maintaining various
marine data bases and producing all kinds of marine data products. It also provides services for the
users at home and abroad. In addition, the division is engaged in the organization and coordination
for the formulation of the standards and specifications of Chinese marine data.
2.3.2.
China Argo Data Center
The China Argo Data Center was set up in NMDIS. It is responsible for collecting, processing,
managing and distributing Argo data, and for Argo data international cooperation and exchange.
Until now, the operational system has been established and has been servicing in the Website.
ARGO operational system consists of Argo data receiving and distributing subsystem, quality
control, database management and network service subsystems.
2.3.3.
China Delayed-mode Database for NEAR-GOOS
The China NEAR-GOOS delayed-mode database has been established. It contains data on
temperature and salinity, wave, buoy from Chinese marine stations, GTS and VOS..
2.3.4.
Other data
NMDIS acts as a national representative and coordinator for International Oceanographic Data and
Information System(IODE). It has established marine data exchange relations with many countries
like ASEAN Regional Oceanographic Data and ODAS/JCOMM Metadata Management
3. Service and users
3.1.
Services :
Most of the services are provided on website of each center.
3.1.1.
Forecasting service:
Continous sea forecasts are directly provided to the users such as governments, industries and
public. These products are broadcast on TV, internet or send by fax, mobile messages and other
methods.
On website, we provide numerical, analyzed and warning products. The user can search products
matching one or several of the following criteria:
 Product name.
 Type (numerical, analyzed, warning ).
 Parameters (category and name).
 Geographical scale (different regions).
 Vertical profils and sections ( different depth).
We have three TV shows in different channels.
 CCTV (China Central TV), daily marine conditions of different coast cities and weekly
products of china seas.
 CETV-1(China Education TV)， vacation area marine environmental forecasting
 TCTV( the travel Chanel) , beach of 16 cities marine environmental forecasting
3.1.2.
Monitoring service
The identification system of oil spill pollution was another important achievement made by the
NMEMC. Infrared spectrum, fluorescent spectrum were tested in situ in Dalian Port Surveillance
for two years. 20 difficult and complicated cases of ship spilled-oil are treated. It had more
environmental, economical and social effects in identification of ship oil pollution sources and
provided scientific basis for law-enforcement management of sea surface oil spill, which filled the
blank in this research field in China.
The comprehensive investigation on coastal and marine resources of Liaoning Province involving
marine hydrology, chemistry, geology, geomorphology and environmental pollution was carried out
in the coastal area shallower than 15-20m over an area of 160,000 km2. The investigation lasted
four years and the comprehensive surveys on seabed geomorphology and sediments were carried
out. The geomorphologic field survey , the indoor analysis of substance structure and composition,
the systematic understanding where used for the development of processes and changes of coastal,
estuary and geological landforms, especially on the Liaoning Province coastal area. PB210 is the
leading method to determin the modern rate of sedimentation. It filled many blanks in coastal
research.
3.1.3.
Downloading service
The services to the users at home and abroad deal with environmental analysis and assessment such
as ocean waves, temperature and salinity, sea current, meteorology, pollution etc.
The division possesses such advanced data processing devices as
1 Sun1000 Server，1 Sun20 Workstation，1 Sun5 Workstation，1 SGI Workstation，8
PC(586) ，8 other PC，Magnetic tape drivers and CD-ROM drivers，Digitizer, scanner,
laser printer, plotter, etc.
Figure 1 Argo data flow chart
3.2.
3.2.1.
Users :
Public
Daily, weekly and monthly forecast on web site and TV shows are provide to public. Marine
disasters directly influence the economy and every persons living near the china seas. Travelling
products like best swimming time and wave will benefit to the people who want to take holidays.
3.2.2.
Government
Pre-warning products and disaster evaluation are important for government. For exemple, storm
surge, tsunami, dangerous wave and dangerous iceberg have to be pre-warning to help the
government decision
Information Centre of Ministry of Water Resources (the former Hydrometeorological and Water
Resources Dispatching Centre) cooperates with Shanghai Computing Agency to make forecast
using one years’ observing tide level data, harmonic analytical method and 139 tidal component.
Department of Guarantee of Navigation of Navy and Maritime Safety Department of the
Headquarters of the People’s Liberation Army began to publish tidal tables with naval ports as the
main part since the beginning of 1950s. They made forecast of 93 ports and stations in the past three
years including 13 stations forecast.
3.2.3.
Special
Marine Environmental forecasting of typical ports, oil spill and ship routing belong to special
products.
Some forecasting system had been funded by some projects. At the end of the research projects,
different forecasting products have been updated.
Table 1 Service to users
Users
Oil
Marine
companies
Security
Storm surge
√
√
√
Sea current
√
√
√
Ocean wave
√
√
√
Tsunami
√
√
√
Sea Ice
√
√
√
√
Oil spill
√
√
Typhoon
√
√
√
√
variables
Fishery Ship
Military
affairs
√
Travels Others
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
Salinity tide
Sea
√
temperature
Weather
√
√
√
√
√
√
Pole research
Red tide
√
√
√
√
√
4. Comparison between China and Europe
4.1.1.
Existing problems compared with European ocean wave forecasting products
Before discussing the existing problems in ocean wave numerical forecasting in China, we give a
brief introduction of ocean wave numerical model used in Europe. Actually in Europe, many
countries use their wave models to forecast ocean wave, e.g, BMO model used in UK, HYPA
model used in Germany, VENICE model in Italy and etc. The 3rd generation wave model WAM,
one of the most popular ocean wave models used in the world, which is running operationally for
more than 10 years in European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The
homepage:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/wavecharts/index.html#forecasts.
ECMWF
wave model operates in global ocean wave model with the grid of 1/4x1/4 degree or in European
waters ocean wave model with the grid of 1/8x1/8 degree. The main parameters are shown in the
following figure and WMO members or registered user can access or download the predicted data.
The output parameters of the ECMWF wave model for global ocean or European waters
Over the past two decades, there have been systematic efforts to improve the original WAM
forecasting system in ECMWF. Key enhancements include the introduction of the assimilation of
altimeter wave height data, the two-way interaction of wind and waves, the effects of unresolved
bathymetry and a new dissipation source function. Furthermore, the spatial resolution was increased
from 330km to 25km for the global ocean. The driving surface wind fields are also much improved
in ECMWF. Now ECMWF wave model is Cycle 3552 with 4-D variables assimilation of all sky
microwave imager data and wave model grid is extended from 81N-90N also. ECMWF wave
model output is verified to in-situ observations even though the in-situ wave data is rather limited.
The significant wave height from Envisat/ALT and Jason-2 are assimilated in the wave model and
SAR wave mode data is also assimilated in the model at the present time.
Compared with European ocean wave forecasting, the bigger gaps are mainly summarized as
follows (Xu Fuxiang 2005).
 The overall development level of ocean wave forecasting in China is relatively low.
 The accuracy of ocean wave numerical models relies entirely on the quality of input
meteorological data, and the research for the forcing wind field is relatively weaker.
 In situ ocean wave monitoring buoy or related equipment is very limited.
 The verification and validation of the wave numerical model required high-precision measured
data which is sparse.
 Compared with ECMWF, no altimeter or other satellite data is assimilated in ocean wave
numerical model at present in China.
 The wave numerical forecasting product and its utilization should be improved.
4.1.2.
The main characteristics of the European ocean forecasting systems
The European countries are now trying to integrating the available ocean forecasting products
through some joint projects, for example, the Myocean project, the Mercator project and Mersea
project. These projects will allows all users to access a catalogue of worldwide and European
regional Ocean Products (real time observations, analysis and forecast) that have been made
available under previous projects step by step. These efforts are gathering all the relevant European
capabilities to ensure that operational systems are maintained at the most advanced level. Most of
the operational forecasting systems are using sophisticated schemes for model parameterizations
and data assimilation.
Sea surface temperature from
the NCOF FOAM 1/9 degree
ocean model. The upper right
box forms the MERSEA NE
Atlantic TEP area
Mediterranean Sea SST as seen by the MFS 1/16°
forecasting system
Arctic Ocean Sea Surface temperature and sea-ice
concentrations
Baltic Sea surface salinity from DMI-BSHCmod
Figure 2 Coverage examples of Mercator Project
In almost all of these operational ocean forecasting systems, the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is playing a very important role in providing (not all but most
of) atmospheric forcing for the models, usually at a frequency of six hours. The atmospheric forcing
needed by the forecasting systems usually include wind stress, evaporation, precipitation, sensible
heat flux, latent heat flux, infrared flux, cloud coverage, surface humidity, air temperature at two
meters, and wind at 10 meters. The availabilities of the atmospheric forcing in Europe have been
making all these operational oceanic forecasting systems possible.
All of the operational oceanic forecasting systems are (or will be) using sophisticated assimilation
schemes to better the forecasts. The optimal interpolation, different forms of Kalman filters and
variational methods are widely used. Satellite data (sea level anomaly, sea surface temperature, sea
surface wind) and in-situ measurements (temperature, salinity and current) are assimilated in most
of the operational systems.
The European oceanic operational forecasting systems usually provide both global/basin scale
coverage forecasts and regional forecasts. The resolutions of the global/basin scale forecasts vary
from ~1/4° to 2°and the resolution of the regional forecast is usually higher than ~1/12°. There are
usually 30~50 vertical levels in the simulation systems. Forecast products include temperature,
salinity, zonal and meridional velocity, free surface elevation, sea ice variables (thickness,
concentration, temperature, zonal and meridional ice velocity, snow thickness on ice, ice heat
content), mixed layer depth (density diagnostic), mass transport by density class through sections
and meridional heat transports.
Data from Argo floats, XBT, CTD, buoys, moorings and some merged satellite data (Mean SLA,
SST)are widely used for the system validation (and data assimilation). Most of the measurements
are freely available to the European model operators. These measurements are widely distributed on
the global oceans while in the China seas only limited areas are covered.
Argo floats, XBT, CTD, Buoys, gliders, Moorings, Others
Figure 3 Global Coverage of the Measurements for validation in European operational ocean
forecasting systems
The ocean environmental forecasting systems and the provided products are introduced in this
report. We take ocean wave forecasting and ocean model simulation as an example to discuss the
main differences of ocean environment numerical forecasting between China and Europe. The main
gaps could be summarized as follows:
 The forcing field and data assimilation availabilities. The wind field with high quality and
accuracy are needed in both ocean wave modeling and ocean numerical modeling. 4-D
variables data assimilation especially with in situ data and satellite data should be much
improved in the future.
 Mechanism of some key physical process studies and parameterization especially in coastal
areas, Air-sea interaction and coupling techniques. Further studies are needed in air-sea
coupling processes including wind storm – wave – tide – current – ice processes, solar radiation
and its scattering processes, and atmosphere – ocean coupling techniques.
 Model products’ verification and validation. Class 1-3 metrics are introduced in ocean
numerical modeling in MERSEA.
 In situ data, satellite data and model forecasting data service should be improved. The model
and related information should be provided accompanying with the model products.
4.1.3.
Main differences between China and Europe
 Area: China’s marine forecasts focus on coastal area, and also develop extended regional
forecast as the basis of coastal forecast. Europe starts from regional and global to coastal areas.
No real operational European coastal products. Downscaling is in preparation.
 Fund: In Europe, research fund is gained from many sources. Take France for example,
research is sponsored by social organizations and oil companies, since the products serve oil
spill、sailing、route ship for transport. While in China, the major sources of research fund are
government and projects.
 Data and assimilation: In Europe, observation data is widely used. All of the operational
oceanic forecasting systems are (or will be) using sophisticated assimilation schemes to better
the forecasts. The optimal interpolation, different forms of Kalman filters, SEEK filter
(ensemble base scheme) and variational methods are widely used. Some are fully multivariate
and multi data schemes. There are weekly to daily analysis and forecast. Satellite data (sea level
anomaly, sea surface temperature, sea surface wind) and in-situ measurements (temperature,
salinity and current) are assimilated in most of the operational systems. In China, assimilation
data consists of volunteer ship data, station data, various buoy data, and satellite remote sensing
data. Assimilation schemes include Nudging, optimal interpolation, 3DVar, and EnOI.
 Forcing field: Forcing fields of Europe marine forecast are provided by ECMWF. It was high
frequency but not good for local. While China’s forcing fields are produced by numerical
forecasting group of NMEFC which makes them advantaged in pertinence and flexibility.
 Service: In Europe, forecasting products access mostly freely via web site. In China, forecasting
products are published by broadcast and TV besides web site.
5. Glossary:
GOOS
Global Ocean Observing System
MERSEA
Marine EnviRonment and Security for the European Area
GMES
Global Monitoring for Environment and Security
NERSC
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
NCOF
National Center for Ocean Forecasting
ECMWF
European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast
SEEK
Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman filter
HYCOM
Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model
SOA
State Ocean Administration of China
NMEFC
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center
NMEMC
National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center
NMDIS
National Marine Data and Information Service
NSOAS
National Satellite Ocean Application Service
CTS
Chinese autonomously established Typhoon Storm surge model
CES
Chinese Extra-tropical Storm surge model
CTTT
China Tsunami Travel Time model
CTSU
China TSUnami model
COMCOT
Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model
FVCOM
Finite Volume Community Ocean Model
MOM4
Coupled Global Climate Model
WRF
Weather Research and Forecasting Model
WAM
Wave Analysis Model
POM
Princeton Ocean Model