Download COP21 Presentation 4

COP21
Presentation 4
Prediction for the Future
Ford & Eric
2 Degree Limit
 General goal for climate change is to limit temperature
increase to 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial
temperatures
 Put into writing at Cancun in 2010
 William Nordhaus-1977
 Suggested 2 degree limit keeps Earth within natural range
of fluctuation
 Limits ecological damage because Earth’s temperature has
changed this much before
 Currently predicted that we will exceed 2 degrees
2 Degree Limit
If reaching 2 degree limit, by 2100 predictions of
altered:
 Marine ecosystems
 Sea Level Rise
 Weather patterns
 Extreme storms, drought, wildfires
 Agriculture
 Reduction in yields of wheat, rice and corn in both
tropical and temperate regions
2 Degree Rise Video
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0_gDXqYeQ
On a track for
A One Degree Rise
 Not analyzing the average air temperature, but the
average surface temperature of the earth
 Barely perceptible to human skin – but impactful in
balance of environment
Scary Fact from Ice Core samples:
 In the last million years it has never been more than
one degree Celsius warmer than it is now
Solar Geoengineering
Study how to reduce solar
irradiation
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
 Can we utilize the tech that all
trees use
 We’re not advanced enough yet
 Can plant trees
 But not enough difference
would be made
Solar Geoengineering
Atmospheric Reflection
 In 1991, Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted
in one of the largest volcanic blasts of the 20th
century
 Spat 20 million tons of sulfur into the atmosphere
 Shielding earth from the sun’s rays
 Causing global temperatures to drop by nearly a half
a degree Celsius in a single year
Volcanic Sulfur
 Half a degree Celsius is the same amount the planet
has warmed in the last 50 years
 Scientists have considered replicating the event to
counteract global warming
 Using a fleet of jets to inject sulfate aerosols high into
the atmosphere to block a portion of the sun’s rays
 However, there could be serious unintended
environmental consequences
 Wouldn’t reduce CO2 levels
COP21 Goals
 Legal force – provide consequences for not meeting
targets
 Ensure Green Climate Fund is adequately financed
 Differentiation – set goals for all nations, not just
developed ones
 Focus on adaptation to inevitable climate change
 Let negotiations be transparent
 Attempt to meet our 2 degree goal
COP21 Predictions
 Most experts think that a new international treaty
will be signed
 Update or replacement for Kyoto Protocol
 Only 32% think it will have legally binding authority
 Low confidence in ability to meet 2 degree goal
 Ending of subsidies for fossil fuel companies
important
 Much of the burden will fall on businesses
 Governments pass their goals along to private sector
Climate Change Activism
 About 570,000 in rallies
worldwide
 Urging change and showing
public support
 London: 50,000 in march
from Hyde Park to
Whitehall
 Link to Brandalism
movement
 Reducing the amount of
corporate advertising
 Showing link between
corporate culture and
pollution
Sources
 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-34956825
 http://www.sustainability.com/news/expertsconfident-that-cop21-will-lead-to-an-internationalagreement-predict-that-business-will-be-key-to-itsimplementation-post-2015#.VluX9fnhDtQ
 http://www.theenergycollective.com/falwellp/219
3591/core-issues-paris-climate-talks