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Assessing American and Chinese Citizen Support for Joining an International Climate Change Treaty
Students: Brittany Flaherty, Hunter Hermes, Joy Larson, Shawn Peterson, Greg Sikowski & Helue Vazquez Valverde
Faculty Mentor: Dr. Eric Jamelske, Dr. James Boulter & Dr. Won Jang
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire: Chippewa Valley Center for Economic Research & Development and Watershed Institute for Collaborative Environmental Studies
Introduction
International Policy Questions
Climate change could be the single most important issue of our time. China and the United States
share the highest importance related to potential climate change mitigation policies because they are
the world’s two largest greenhouse gas (GHG) polluters and the two largest economies.
We asked two questions about joining an international treaty. The first question
was unconditional while the second was conditional on the other country not
participating.
Efforts to address climate change through international cooperation have largely taken place through
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). These negotiations have
been highlighted by tensions between developed and developing countries regarding what actions to
take and who should bear the costs.
Should the United States join an international commitment to address
climate change/global warming?
中国应当加入应对气候变化/全球变暖的国际承诺吗？
The Kyoto Protocol, passed in 1997 and entered into force by ratifying countries in 2005, did not call
for GHG reductions by developing countries (non-annex I), thus placing the burden of change on
developed nations (annex I). The fact that China was not required to reduce emissions under Kyoto
was cited as an important determinant in the United States decision to not ratify this treaty.
Despite some successes, the Kyoto Protocol has largely failed as a result of the differential treatment
of developed and developing nations and the lack of United States and Chinese involvement. In fact,
the relationship between China and the United States with respect to climate negotiations can best be
described as somewhat adversarial.
Because meaningful climate change action will require the cooperation and participation of both China
and the United States, it is increasingly important to understand what Chinese and American citizens
think about this issue. Thus, a better understanding of public support for climate policy action in both
countries is of great interest.
Figures 1 & 2: Graphical Analysis Results
o No 否
o Yes 是
o I am not sure 不清楚
Should the United States join an international treaty to address climate
change/global warming even if China does not also join?
即使美国不加入应对气候变化/全球变暖的国际承诺，中国仍然要加入应对气候变
化/全球变暖的国际承诺吗？
o No 否
o Yes 是
o I am not sure 不清楚
Results from these questions are presented graphically in Figures 1 and 2.
Figures 1 and 2 show significant differences in support for joining an international climate change
treaty between Chinese and American respondents.
• Chinese respondents show a greater unconditional support for joining an international treaty.
• There is significant unconditional support in United States for joining an international treaty.
• Support for joining an international treaty declines in both countries conditional on the other country
not participating.
• United States respondents show a greater uncertainty about joining an international treaty.
Table 2 presents the results from
our regression model examining
what factors influence support for
joining an international climate
change treaty.
Method
We conducted face-to-face surveys of Chinese adults and online surveys of Chinese college
students between September and November 2013. The Chinese sample consists of 2,047 adults
from four provinces (Beijing, Guangdong, Shaanxi and Sichuan) and 1,670 college students from five
provinces (Beijing, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Shanghai and Sichuan) totaling 3,717 respondents.
Table 1: Descriptive Statistics
The response rates for the Chinese adult and college student samples were approximately 40% and
67% respectively.
Table 2: Regression Analysis Results
• Respondents in the Unites States
show less support for joining an
international treaty.
• Saying climate change is
happening, seeing a scientific
consensus on anthropogenic
climate change and being
concerned about climate change
are all positively correlated with
support for joining an international
treaty in both countries.
We also conducted online surveys of adults and college students in the United States over the same
period. The United States sample consists of 1,306 adults from four states (CA, NE, RI and WI) and
2,335 college students from seven states (CA, CO, MD, NE, RI, SC and WI) totaling 3,641
respondents.
The response rates for the United States adult and college student samples were approximately 9%
and 67% respectively.
• Selecting the environment as the
most important issue leads to more
support for joining an international
treaty in both countries.
Table 1 presents descriptive statistics for selected variables generated from survey responses for
both samples. Sample sizes differ across variables because not everyone answered each survey
question.
• In the United States, both Liberals
and Moderates exhibit greater
support for joining an international
treaty compared to Conservatives.
The average age of respondents was just over 30 years old in both samples with a higher
percentage of college students (64.1%) in the United States compared to China (44.9%). In the
United States sample, 50.9% of respondents were male whereas 51.3% of Chinese respondents
were male. Additionally, a larger percentage of respondents in the United States (16.2%) identified as
a minority population compared to Chinese respondents (5.5%). Finally, a lower percentage of
Chinese respondents (33%) had a bachelor’s degree compared to American respondents (63%).
Conclusion
A general overview of our survey results show many significant differences between respondents in
China and the United States.
• Chinese respondents place a greater importance on the environment.
• Chinese respondents show a greater belief that climate change is happening.
Overview of Survey Results
• United States respondents show a lower likelihood of seeing scientific consensus on anthropogenic
climate change.
Our survey included questions about if climate change was happening and what was causing it as
well as how concerned people were. Additionally, we asked questions about people’s perception
of scientific consensus on climate change and its causes.
• United States respondents show a higher likelihood of being unconcerned about climate change.
Overall, we conclude that compared to Americans, Chinese respondents are more accepting of the
scientific consensus on the realities of human-caused climate change.
Results from these questions show several striking differences between Chinese and American
responses. (see Table 1).
• Chinese respondents place a greater importance on the environment.
• Chinese respondents show a greater belief that climate change is happening.
• United States respondents show a lower likelihood of seeing scientific consensus on
anthropogenic climate change.
• United States respondents show a higher likelihood of being unconcerned about climate
change.
Our research question in this poster is, do these differences in climate change views
translate into differing opinions regarding climate change policy?
Regression Analysis Model
To better understand what factors influence public support for joining an
international climate change treaty in China and the United States we use
regression analysis.
Probit Regression Model
• Discrete choice dependent variable, join =1 / otherwise = 0
• The parameters β are estimated by maximum likelihood
We asked respondents in both countries about international climate change policy in terms
of the level of public support for joining an international climate treaty.
Table 2 presents the results from this regression model.
In this poster we have shown that greater acceptance of climate change realities and a higher level of
concern among Chinese respondents translates into greater support for joining an international climate
change treaty compared to respondents in the United States.
We have also shown that environmental and climate change awareness variables are positively
correlated with support for joining an international climate change treaty in both countries.
Finally we have shown that there are political differences in the United States with both Liberals and
Moderates showing greater support for joining an international treaty compared to Conservatives.
Our next research question examines how the differences found here impact the willingness-to-pay for
climate change mitigation policy action among citizens in both China and the United States.
Please see our second poster titled Using Contingent Valuation to Assess Public Willingness-toPay for Climate Change Mitigation in China and the United States for a presentation of the results
from this extended research.
Funding for this project was provided by the UWEC Blugold Commitment and International Fellows Program, UWEC Foundation, Xcel Energy-Eau Claire, and Northwestern Bank-Chippewa Falls