* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Summary Report CwD Project Profile 2012
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
1 Report Compiled by: Johnson Siamachira: Development Communications Specialist ([email protected]). Cover photograph: (Courtesy of GoZ/UNDP/GEF) Contents Executive Summary 4 Introduction 6 Context, objectives of the report 12 Purpose of the report 13 Overview of Chiredzi District 13 Coping with drought and climate change project 15 Climate projections in Chiredzi District 16 Achievements of the Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project 18 Community-Based Adaptation (CBA) 20 Soil and water conservation activities 28 Livestock Production and Management 38 A weather-based farming model for vulnerable communities 42 Factors enabling success 48 The adaptation model 52 Challenges faced 57 Lessons learnt 58 Conclusions and recommendations 60 Bibliography 63 Annexes 65 2 Acronyms and Abbreviations Agritex Agricultural, Technical and Extension Services, Department of CAMPFIRE Communal Areas Management Programme for Indigenous Resources (Zimbabwe) CBO Community-Based Organization CBNRM Community-Based Natural Resources Management CwDCC Copying with Drought and Climate Change DR&SS Department of Research and Specialist Services EMA Environmental Management Agency FGD Focus Group Discussion GEF Global Environmental Facility GAPs Good Agricultural Practices GoZ Government of Zimbabwe GNP Gonarezhou National Park IPCC Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change IUCN The World Conservation Union (formerly the International Union for the Conservation of Nature MAMID Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanization and Irrigation Development M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NGO Non-governmental Organization OPV Open Pollinated Variety PPCP Private- Public- Community- Partnership SARDC Southern African Research and Documentation Services TOR Terms of Reference UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USAID United States Agency for International Development WWF World Wide Fund for Nature 3 Executive Summary Climate change is already affecting many of the lives and livelihoods in Zimbabwe. It is undermining the nation’s economic development through compromised livelihood outcomes that result from gradual changes in temperature and rainfall patterns combined with increasing frequency and intensity of natural hazards, such as floods and droughts. The poorest communities in Zimbabwe are being hardest hit because they are more dependent on their climate-sensitive natural resources and ecosystems, such as agriculture and fishing; they live in fragile areas that have greater exposure to climate hazards and are less able to respond to climate change because of limited human, financial, and institutional capacity. This summary of achievements report of the Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project reviews impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Chiredzi District of Southeastern Zimbabwe, with the intention of providing a broad overview of the key issues related to climate change facing this particular district, and the country. The profile has been produced through a collaborative initiative involving the Government of Zimbabwe through the Environmental Management Agency (EMA) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) with support from the Global Environment Facility (GEF) under the five year project “Coping with Drought and Climate Change” (CwDCC) in Zimbabwe. The issues presented in this profile of project achievements are drawn from lessons and experiences from the project, related initiatives and stakeholder inputs. It also draws on a set of project literature that were produced by the project, This literature examines climate trends, scenarios and projections for Chiredzi District and draw upon a variety of case studies on this adaptation model. This project profile therefore, highlights the main themes, findings and conclusions arising from these studies and examines their implications for future coping with drought and climate change projects in Zimbabwe, or for the scaling up of the project, and eventually its impact on future research, policy and practice. While its primary relevance is for policy-makers, practitioners and researchers in Zimbabwe, it is anticipated that the general lessons are relevant for a broader set of stakeholders that are dealing with similar environmental, demographic and institutional challenges, particularly in Zimbabwe, and southern Africa. Climate records demonstrate that Zimbabwe is already beginning to experience the effects of climate change, notably rainfall variability and extreme events. These conditions, combined with warming trends, are expected to render land increasingly marginal for agriculture, which poses a major threat to the economy and the livelihoods of the poor due to Zimbabwe’s heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture and climate sensitive resources. It is expected that farmers, who represent approximately 62 per cent of the total population, will bear disproportionate impacts due to their limited adaptive capacity. Consequently, climate change poses a major threat to sustainable development at the micro and macro levels. Climate change is expected to have adverse effects on a variety of socio-economic sectors that are closely linked to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). 4 The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to intensify the existing natural hazard burdens for at-risk populations and damage and destroy infrastructure. In addition, climate change is likely to intensify the gender dimensions of vulnerability, especially among femaleheaded households. In response, a growing number of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and research organisations, including United Nations (UN) agencies, are engaging in adaptation and development activities using a variety of approaches including community-based adaptation (CBA). Many of the projects demonstrate that autonomous strategies that were effective in dealing with past climate variability are becoming increasingly ineffective for coping with emergent climate change. As a result, there is a growing need for accurate and useful climate data to inform adaptation strategies that can anticipate future climate. The CwDCC Project is a case in point. Effective climate governance is also needed to guide coordinated action. Zimbabwe has prepared its Second National Communication for submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Management has begun to develop a national ‘’Climate Change Response Strategy’’ through a consultative process involving other government ministries, civil society organisations, academic institutions, and the private sector. Although climate change is addressed by environmental legislation, it is widely recognised that such policies are insufficient in light of the severity of climate change and the scale and scope of vulnerability. Governance also faces institutional challenges, including limited capacity and poor relations between civil society and the government. Within this policy context, applied research has an important role to play in informing the development of adaptation strategies that respond directly to the needs and vulnerabilities of women and men, in raising climate change as a development policy priority at all levels, and in informing an integrated approach to future climate policy-making. In particular, this profile provides an analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture and examines possible adaptation strategies based on the experiences of the GoZ-UNDP/GEF: Coping with Drought and Climate Change project in Chiredzi District. The profile examines the sensitivity of rainfed maize, sorghum and cotton production to climate change using downscaled best case and worst case climate change scenarios. For livestock, cattle and goats are considered. Main drivers of vulnerability and possible adaptation strategies are identified through participatory techniques involving the vulnerable men and women of the district. The summary report also highlights adaptation strategies implemented on a pilot scale in sections of Chiredzi district to reduce smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to impacts of drought and climate change, whilst maximising on opportunities that might arise. The impacts of the interventions are evaluated in the context of vulnerability reduction. The case study also presents the estimated costs associated with various adaptation strategies implemented by the Coping with Drought and Climate Change project. Finally, some challenges encountered and lessons drawn from the implementation of the pilot adaptation demonstration projects in Chiredzi district are presented. 5 1.0 Introduction Climate variability and change add to the vulnerability, in particular of the poor, including women and children. Even if significant mitigation measures are implemented, there is need for adaptation to the effects of climate change such as periodic shifts in onset of the rains, increased frequency of intra-seasonal dry spells, droughts, floods and extreme weather events. The Southeast Lowveld of Zimbabwe already experiences impacts of climate variability and change such as increasing water scarcity, declining agricultural productivity, health challenges and environmental degradation. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable because of their overdependence on rainfed agriculture, limited adaptive capacity and an inherently variable climate. This summary report examines the achievements of the UNDP/GEF supported “Coping with Drought and Climate Change” pilot project implemented in Chiredzi District over the period 2008-2012 through the Environmental Management Agency (EMA). The project used the Community - Based Adaptation (CBA) approach to address the future impacts of long-term climate change and the adaptive capacity of local and national stakeholders to cope with increased frequency and intensity of drought with a focus on Chiredzi District. 1.1 Observed trends in Zimbabwe’s Climate One of the best ways of understanding how Zimbabwe’s climate may change in future is to examine how it has changed in the past. While it is certainly possible that climate may change in ways we have not yet observed, reconstructions of past climatic fluctuations and evidence of more recent changes, based on available observational records, provide a good first indication of the direction and magnitude of possible future changes. According to the Zimbabwe Meteorological Services, the country is experiencing more hot and fewer cold days and rainfall patterns have undergone significant modifications since meteorological record keeping began in the 1890s. 6 BOX 1: Community views regarding impacts of climate change “The rainfall patterns here have really changed, it's different from the old days when you would be sure of a bumper harvest after the rains,'' says 53-year old Hasani Mukaha (one of the champion farmers in the Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project), in the drought-prone Chikombedzi communal lands in Chiredzi District.. For more than three decades now, life has not been easy for Mukaha and other smallholder farmers in this harsh, semi-arid environment. He says things have become worse now. "There are no good rains to talk about anymore,'' he says bitterly. “It looks like the sun has come closer to us - judging by the sweltering heat,'' he complains, adding: “We are being baked!” Although Mukaha lives in Zimbabwe, his is a common story throughout southern Africa. Observations being made by smallholder farmers like him confirm scientific evidence which shows that climate change exists and is occurring at an alarming rate. Parts of Zimbabwe, Chiredzi - for example, are already experiencing unpredictable weather patterns. "We are no longer sure when to start preparing the land for planting or when to start planting. It’s pretty much gambling with nature," laments Mukaha. He adds: "Sometimes the rains are not enough for crop production, while at other times, they are too much. They flood and destroy the crops. If the situation persists, then most of us, who have small farms, will sink deeper into poverty, because we depend on agriculture for our livelihood.” Temperature There is strong evidence based on instrumental records of minimum and maximum temperatures that Zimbabwe has warmed up by about 0.4-0.6 Degrees Celcius between 1900 and 2010. Chiredzi District has warmed at a faster rate of 0.6 Degrees Celsius between 1966 and 2010. Urban settlements have also warmed up at much higher rates. 7 Figure 1 (Source: IIED Climate Change Working Paper Number 3, December 2012). Rainfall Changes in rainfall are harder to detect as rainfall varies so much in space and time across the country, and even within the same geographic region. Most rural communities do not have consistent rainfall records, making detection of rainfall trends in those regions even harder. Evidence from a number of studies suggests that droughts are becoming more intense and widespread across the country, with the Southeast Lowveld being the worst affected. Figure2: Sesasonal rainfall pecentages 8 1.2 Impacts Climate change will have a significant impact on southern Africa's already vulnerable food security, environmental experts have warned. It already costs southern Africa five to 10 percent of its Gross Domestic Product. This implies a loss of between 10 and 21 billion dollars each year - in a region where nearly half the population is living on less than a dollar a day. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, says one in three people living in Sub-Saharan Africa were chronically hungry in 2007. According to the Inter Press Service (IPS), a development news and features agency, since 2007, erratic rainfall has led to increased food shortages in southern Africa where droughts damaged and destroyed maize crops in Lesotho, Namibia, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zimbabwe and South Africa. As a result, southern Africa faced a shortfall of 2,18 million metric tonnes of maize in 2006. According to researchers of the Southern African Development Community (SADC); people in the region lacked more than four million metric tonnes of maize in 2007/2008. Increasing food shortages have become a trend, warns the Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG), a climatology research group based at the University of Cape Town (UCT) in South Africa. It is estimated that the maize yields in Zimbabwe and South Africa's Limpopo Province will decrease by approximately 20-50 percent between now and 2045. This predicted decline will pose a major problem, as maize is the region's main staple food. Recently, the CSAG investigated the long - term effects of climate change on rain-fed agriculture in southern Africa where the majority of farmers depend on rainfall as a main water source for their crops as they cannot afford irrigation systems. 9 "When rainfall is low, late or early, these people and their dependents are the first ones to be in trouble. (CSAG, 2011). There is a direct link between the projected decrease of maize yields and climatological change, according to the CSAG. The rain seasons, once predictable, have become erratic. The region is expected to get hotter as a result of increasing temperatures; more water will evaporate from the soil at a higher pace. This places stress on crops. But millions of other rural people like Mukaha in the region have already started experiencing the negative impacts of climate change. He also remembers the hot years of 15 years ago, saying this is when the weather started to get warmer. The years 1994-1995 saw many SADC countries hit by droughts, surpassing the effects of the 1991-1992 drought in some parts of the region. Changes in weather patterns have turned agriculture into a gamble with nature for smallholder farmers in districts such as Chiredzi. Prolonged droughts have made the lives of smallholder farmers, who do not have access to irrigation, extremely difficult. In Chiredzi District, where the local economy is largely driven by agriculture, the largely poor, rural population has become even more vulnerable. According to a research by the CSAG, within the next three decades, the rain season in Zimbabwe will start more than a month later, in December instead of in late October. Poor soil fertility, poor infrastructure, lack of access to markets, climate variability and breakdown in social safety nets are major sources of vulnerability. Source: IIED Climate Change Working Paper Number 3, December 2012 10 Drought – the most frequently occurring “hazard” in Zimbabwe Lately, however, there has been a shift in development emphasis. The progressive approach considers that both the hazard and people's vulnerability are the cause of disaster. Emphasis is now focused on "disaster risk reduction'' (DRR) - reducing vulnerability and thereby the risk of disasters - as an integral part of economic development and poverty reduction. And, due to its climate, geology and vegetation, Zimbabwe is prone to a range of natural hazards such as storms, floods, droughts and cyclones. Some of these are seasonal, such as cyclones and floods, others are less predictable. Many areas of Zimbabwe (Matabeleland, Masvingo and southern parts of Manicaland) are naturally dry, some areas experience less than 500 mm of rain in a "normal'' year. Yet attempts are still being made to cultivate crops such as maize, which are illsuited to these conditions. Given the uncertainty of adequate rains, it is not surprising that frequent crop failures occur. For example, most farmers in Chiredzi District argue that they only get one good harvest every five-six years. Disastrous "droughts'' are most frequently the result of the adoption of inappropriate crops coupled with erratic rainfall. As such, they are to some extent man-made disasters. Drought is the most frequently occurring "natural'' hazard in Zimbabwe, made worse by the clear trend, since 1980, of decline in rainfall that the country has received each year. The semi-arid areas have been hardest hit, but the frequency with which other areas are experiencing reduced rainfall is increasing, according to the Meteorological Office of Zimbabwe. The impacts of drought have been widespread, affecting economic performance, social infrastructure and the environmental resource base - and, most importantly, people's livelihoods. 11 Figure 3: Rainfall variability and economic growth in Zimbabwe (IIED Climate Change Working Paper Number 3, December 2012). 2.0 Objective of the report The objective of this documentation is to assist the CwDCC Project to take stock of the progress and impacts that the project has made, while concomitantly catalyzing a national level dialogue on the identification and prioritization of opportunities and challenges currently confronting similar projects nationally. The resulting profile is a snapshot in time providing: A summarized description of the Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project The current scale of the CwDCC effort, quantified to the extent feasible CwDCC impacts captured to the extent possible Lessons learned; and experiences gained The challenges and barriers to further advancement of CwDCC,identified and prioritized Conclusions and recommendations for future climate change adaptation in Chiredzi District. 12 2.1 Purpose of the profile The purpose of the summary report of the key results of the project is to raise the profile of climate change adaptation and the project in particular with government and donors. It is envisaged that the report should contribute towards mainstreaming some of the elements of the “Chiredzi Climate Change Adaptation” model in development programming. The purpose of the assignment was to prepare a comprehensive report summarizing the results and achievements of the GoZ/UNDP/GEF supported project “Coping with Drought and Climate Change” in reducing the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to impacts of drought and future climate change in Chiredzi District, lessons learnt and recommendations for the future of adaptation in Chiredzi District. The report is intended to raise the profile of the project and climate change adaptation among government ministries, donors, civil society and private sector as recommended in the project’s terminal evaluation report. 2.1.2 The Project Background The Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project (CwDCC) is part of a set of four five- year projects (2008-2012) implemented in Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. The projects have similar objectives and are financed through the Special Climate Change Fund of the Global Environmental Facility (GEF). The First National Communication for Zimbabwe (1998) formed an important starting point in project design and site selection. Chiredzi District in the Save River Basin located to the southeast of Zimbabwe was selected for the pilot project. Vulnerability to drought and climate change, and adaptive capacity and social acceptance were the main criteria used to focus the project in the most critical hot spots in Chiredzi District. The Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project was intended to demonstrate and promote adoption of a range of gender sensitive approaches for adaptation to climate change among rural communities currently engaged in agriculture in vulnerable areas of Chiredzi District as a national model for climate change adaptation. The project was essentially organized into four activity components: Climate Risk Assessment Selection, evaluation, prioritization and pilot demonstration of policy oriented adaptation practices Improving climate early warning systems Adaptive learning and replication 13 Project beneficiaries About 2,000 households across the five project sites were expected to benefit directly from the pilot project. Thousands of other smallholder farmers in the dry lands of Zimbabwe vulnerable to the impacts of drought and climate change were also expected to benefit from the knowledge and lessons from the project. Measurable adaptation benefits were primarily in terms of improvements in agricultural yields and household income, and numbers of households benefiting from improved climate information. Secondary beneficiaries include: Policymakers Civil society organizations Donor communities who need evidence to make informed decisions on policy and programming options to climate change adaptation Project approach This project used the Community - Based Adaptation (CBA) approach to assess climate risk and vulnerability, and to develop adaptation strategies for smallholder farmers in Chiredzi District. In Chiredzi, the project worked in wards 7, 8,9,10 and 11 (Figure 4), and followed a five step approach: Assessment of the current and future climate risks and identification of those considered most important by smallholder farmers. Assessment of the vulnerability of livelihood systems. Identification and assessment of locations of vulnerable communities (‘hot-spots’). Participatory identification of priority adaptation strategies. Implementation of pilot projects in ‘hot spots’ for learning by doing. The project identified five types of drought of concern to farmers, including: early season, midseason, terminal, seasonal and extreme drought. This method coupled with a participatory rootcause analysis of livelihood vulnerability informed the identification of priority adaptation strategies by the farmers in response to drought impacts, including: crop failure; lack of water for irrigation; livestock deaths; lack of fodder; loss of income; food shortages; loss of biodiversity; and stress. The results were used to inform the development of planned adaptations (Climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Zimbabwe, IIED Climate Change Working Paper Number 3: December 2012). 14 3.0 Overview of Chiredzi District 3.1 Climate and other socio-economic challenges, opportunities Pilot project site Chiredzi district (Figure 4 ),a vast, semi-arid and drought prone area is downstream of the Save and Runde Catchments with altitude generally below 500m above mean sea level. The District borders Mozambique to the east and South Africa to the south - extending over an area of 17, 629 square kilometres. It has a population of 232, 616,according to the 2002 National Population Censurs. Ninety (90) pecent of these people live in the rural areas of the district. The key features of this district include the Save Conservancy, the Gonarezhou National Park and the Manjinji Pan. The biophysical characteristics of Chiredzi communal area are similar to those of most communal areas of Zimbabwe. It lies largely in Natural Region V - a region that experiences the lowest amount of rainfall (less than 400mm/year in most years). Temperatures are always very high in summer (+ 39⁰C) causing evaporation losses of 10-13mm per day (Lovell, 1998). Figure 4: Location of Chiredzi District and the pilot project sites. 15 Chiredzi’s vegetation cover comprises of annual grasses with scattered shrubs and stunted trees whose density decrease southwards in sympathy with the rainfall distribution of the district. (Unganai L, 2011: Impacts of climate change in agriculture – a case study documentation). Four major rivers, the Save, Runde, Chiredzi and Mwenezi flow through the region from the wetter northern and western Catchment areas. The district is also characterized by strong climatic variations and fluctuations of rainfall that is highly irregular both spatially and temporarily. The spatial distribution of rainfall is highly dependent on elevation and topography. The district displays a relatively steep gradient of decreasing rainfall southwards ranging from slightly above 700 mm in the north to below 500 mm in the south along the Limpopo Valley. Most of the soils of Chiredzi district are heavy clays, 2:1 clay lattice (mountmorillonite), that demand a lot of water before they can release any water for plant growth. The soils form seals when wet and as rainfall comes in heavy short duration storms, most of the rain-water runs away as run-off making most of the rainfall unavailable for crop use. The soils are very difficult to work on when wet as they become sticky and slippery. If farmers aim to utilize all the water that falls on their land they have to prepare their fields before the onset of the rains (Unganai L, 2011). 3.2 Climate projections in Chiredzi District Assessments by the Coping with Drought and Climate Change project show that Chiredzi District is likely to experience moderate, severe and extreme droughts during the January to March subseason in two out of every 10 years. Droughts extending for 3, 6, 12 and 24 months tend to reoccur at 2 to 4 year intervals, whereas 48 month long droughts recur in intervals of 8 to 16 years. Downscaled future climate change projections for the district show an increase in surface annual temperatures of 1.5 to 3.5⁰C by 2046-2065. Rainfall models are less certain, with 7 models suggesting rainfall increases during the first part of the season followed with decreases, and three models suggesting drier conditions (GoZ-UNDP, GEF, 2009). Under the worst case scenario, temperature increases significantly and rainfall declines by 50 per cent by 2020 compared to the 1961-90 baseline. For the best case scenario, temperature increases slightly and rainfall increases. (Climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Zimbabwe, IIED Climate Change Working Paper Number 3: December 2012). 3.3 Livelihood Profile The district is characterized by a north-south stratification of livelihood systems. In the extreme north, the communities practice rain fed agriculture while those in the southernmost practice livestock production. Irrigated agriculture is only feasible near perennial river systems and on flood plains of the few remaining perennial rivers. The scarcity of water is attributed to high evaporative loss associated with high temperatures which may go beyond 40⁰C in certain periods of the year. 16 Although the high temperatures have the advantage of enhancing speedy maturation of crops and extending the season well into winter in some areas, it may also be a challenge in the germination of seeds. In most cases, the moistened seeds are ‘cooked’ before they germinate. Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L), pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum), cowpeas (Vigna unguiculata) and maize (Zea mays L) are the dominant food crops grown in the region. The main cash crops are red sorghum, cotton and groundnuts. Smallholder farmers are in the majority, using traditional farming systems which mix cash - and food crops in the same farming unit. Livestock rearing, which is composed mainly of cattle and goats, forms an important component of livelihoods in the district. As of 2009 the district had about 153,250 cattle, 700,877 goats and 11,497 donkeys owned by about 14,505 households, according to the Livestock Production Department (LPD), the Government’s livestock extension arm. The descriptive analysis of Chiredzi District’s biophysical and socio-economic characteristics serves to highlight the context within which climate change is occurring, and the medium through which climate change may be acutely expressed. Given the varied nature of Zimbabwe’s biophysical setting, the impacts of climate change will vary from region to region, with the lowveld likely to be more adversely affected by climate change than other regions, given its inherently dry climatic conditions and proneness to droughts. Further, the analysis of Chiredzi District’s biophysical setting provides a basis upon which climate change adaptation strategies can be envisaged. 3.4 Vulnerability drivers Smallholder farmers in Chiredzi District face a number of challenges, including climatic conditions. The district consists of communal grazing areas, interspersed with individual family plots for crop production. It is characterized by degraded soils – and falls largely into land classification Region V, defined as land suitable only for semi-extensive livestock production. The district experiences more frequent and severe droughts compared to other parts of the country. In the project sites, rainfall is too low (generally below 400mm) and erratic. Rain fed agriculture is not profitable and is often not a viable option in many locations although most of the communal area inhabitants continue to struggle to grow food crops. Occasionally, the district experiences flash floods. During the 1991/92 rainfall season, the district received a seasonal total rainfall amount of only 127 mm. Most crops were a complete failure and livestock perished in the thousands. This rainfall pattern is projected to become more severe, increasing in variability and extreme events in the future (Mason et al., 1996; IPCC, 2001; IPCC 2007; Aguilar et al, 2009). Even drought tolerant crops such as sorghum and millet can only give marginal yields under the conditions that obtain in Chiredzi. Even worse, the meagre rainfall received in the region is highly variable making future planning by the farmers to reduce the negative impacts difficult. Temperatures in the district have warmed by up to 0.6⁰C between 1966 and 2005 worsening water balance challenges associated with enhanced evaporative water loss (GoZ-UNDP/GEF: Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project, 2009). 17 Farmers face a number of risks in their operations, including: production, marketing, finance, policy and human risk. Inter-annual and intra-seasonal climate variability is the major source of production risks in rainfed agriculture production systems in the semi-arid Chiredzi District. The majority of crop failures are associated with either a lack of, or excess rainfall. Climate variability is also greatly associated with marketing risks. Unanticipated forces, such as inclement weather, drought conditions, crop failure or bumper harvests, or pest or disease outbreak, can lead to dramatic changes in crop and livestock prices. The project did a participatory vulnerability analysis and concluded that the main drivers of vulnerability in the district included: The project’s community discussions found that vulnerability in Chiredzi district is related to: inherent dryness, a high frequency of drought, monocropping (over-dependence on maize), poor farming practices, high incidence of poverty, limited alternative livelihood options outside agriculture, limited access to technology (irrigation, seed) including markets, institutions and infrastructure (poor roads, bridges, modern energy, dams and water conveyance), population pressure, skewed ownership and access to drylands livelihood assets such as livestock and wild-life, lack of drought preparedness plans and limited use of climate early warning systems 4.0 Achievements of the Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project 4.1Responding to climate change – lessons and experiences from practical project activities The previous sections demonstrate that a variety of socio-economic sectors in Zimbabwe are likely to be adversely affected by climate change, with potentially significant costs. In response, a growing number of NGOs and research organisations, including UN agencies, are engaging in a variety of development projects, many of which have strong adaptation components. The UNFCCC (2007) defines adaptation as the process through which societies increase their ability to cope with an uncertain future, which involves taking appropriate action and making the adjustments and changes to reduce the negative impacts of climate change (UNFCCC, 2007). The two main types of adaptation are autonomous (indigenous responses) and planned (conscious policy options or response strategies). Whilst adaptation can focus on changes to infrastructure or behaviour, the majority of the case studies in this section support behavioural changes related to agricultural livelihoods. The activities examine a number of case studies that employ a variety of approaches to climate change adaptation, notably community based adaptation (CBA). The following examples of adaptation activities feature examples of these approaches, which predominately focus on agricultural livelihoods. 18 Most farmers in drylands such as Chiredzi district have experienced several forms of climate variability and risk and confronted them with a diverse range of coping mechanisms. In particular, rural communities already have a good understanding of local climate patterns, including interannual and intra-annual variability, and are accustomed to dealing with them. However, an important consequence of climate change is that the future climate will be less familiar, more uncertain and, possibly, more extreme (Kurukulasuriya, et al., 2006). The implication of this is that current local practices, processes, systems and infrastructure, which have been more or less adapted to current climate variability, could become increasingly unsuitable as the climate changes. This issue is also aggravated by the fact that local perceptions and interpretations of climate variability can be broad and diverse among communities and within different social groups. Based on the root causes analysis, adaptation options were identified for drought-risk reduction. Project components The CwDCC Project is intended to demonstrate and promote adoption of a range of gender sensitive approaches for adaptation to climate change among rural communities currently engaged in agriculture in vulnerable areas of Chiredzi District as a national model for climate change adaptation. To achieve this aim the project identified five outcomes which were jointly expected to develop a cohesive approach to drought management in the district as follows: Developing the capacity of National institutions to improve knowledge base to facilitate climate change adaptation; Pilot demonstration of policy oriented climate change adaptation practices; Building small-holder farmers’ capacity to effectively use climate early warning systems; Adaptive learning and replication; and Project Management and reporting The project developed and piloted a limited range of coping mechanisms and adaptation measures that effectively reduce vulnerability to drought for crop and livestock production at the project sites in four wards. The approach in Chiredzi is a very significant contribution to national strategies and programmes on climate change adaptation. It was noted that at the beginning of the project about 25-44 percent of the farmers depended on one or two crops (sorghum and maize) while a subsequent survey in 2011 determined that a significant number of farmers have now adopted a diversified crop mix including drought tolerant varieties of maize, sorghum, pearl millet, groundnuts and cowpeas integrated with soil moisture management. The high vulnerability of Chiredzi District to climate change makes adaptation a necessity. Adaptation to climate change is not new in Chiredzi. Communities have always been at risk from climate hazards and people have continuously sought ways of adapting. But, variations and extremes regularly exceed coping ranges, resulting in devastating effects. 19 4.2 Community-Based Adaptation as an approach to adaptation In the Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project, Community-Based Adaptation (CBA) strategies were used. CBA is emerging as a key response to the challenges of climate change. Tailored to local cultures and conditions, CBA supports and builds on other adaptation strategies to climate change. The CBA is participatory, involving both local stakeholders and development and disaster risk reduction practitioners. As a result, it builds on existing cultural norms while addressing local development issues that contribute to climate vulnerability. CBA is now gaining ground in many parts of Zimbabwe. Source: IIED Climate Change Working Paper Number 3, December 2012 Choice of adaptation strategies The selection and adoption of various technical options lies at the centre of the Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project’s practical activities. To address the challenges that were identified and prioritized at the community meetings held in 2008 and 2009, and which included inadequate water for crops and vegetables, pest attacks and fencing, new technical options were to be explored and old techniques revived. This section describes the various approaches in which the choice of technologies available to the community members was widened: investigating existing knowledge; exposure visits; training; testing of technologies, farmer-to-farmer dissemination; adoption; and farmer participatory research and experimentation. The section will also present specific examples of potential adaptive strategies for the drylands of Chiredzi District from the project’s pilot demonstration projects implemented between 2009 and 2012.The choice of adaptation strategies followed extensive stakeholder consultations and participatory climate risk-vulnerability analysis and was largely informed by farmers’ indigenous knowledge systems and years of knowledge generated from research and development work in the district(CwDCC 2011, Factsheet). 20 Below are some of the strategies used in the pilot project: 4.3.1 Optimising crop mix and soil and moisture conservation 4.3. 2 Adaptation practices and livelihoods About 40 percent of farmers in the pilot areas adopted a crop mix involving sorghum, pearl millet, cowpeas, drought tolerant maize varieties and groundnuts; about 30 percent of farmers implementing infield rainwater harvesting and soil moisture conservation (although the labour requirements and availability of draught livestock power are a constraint) and dependence on rain fed agriculture as the sole source of livelihood decreased by more than 20 percent, and traditional crops are now complemented by small gardens, livestock production, nature conservation and trading. However among other issues farmers were constrained in the adoption of labour intensive practices such as chopping of Stover in the urea treatment demonstrations, construction of Zia pits and addition of mulching. Ninety-two smallholder farmers(46 males,46 females), from four villages in the Matibi 11 communal lands of Chiredzi District participated in pilot projects to demonstrate the importance of crop-mix diversification and infield rainwater harvesting as an adaptive strategy. The exploration of suitable dryland crop varieties has focused on appropriate seed selection at which the smallholder farmers chose the range of field crop varieties they have grown. This is a key opportunity for the farmers in the community and from the surrounding areas to identify local sources of seed and exchange information on their performance. The farmers have been taking part in seed multiplication. 21 Box 2: Stepping up food security despite the drought As far as she can remember, 40 - year old Tsotsowani Makondo of Ward 11 in Chiredzi District has never rested, and she doubts she ever will. “When I have enough to eat,” she confesses, “I congratulate myself on my success.” Like most smallholder farmers in rural Chiredzi, and despite the low rainfall in the area, she had no alternative but to engage in crop production (maize and groundnuts) season after season and had always been striving for better harvests. Every agricultural season she would harvest on average, two 50kg bags of groundnuts and no maize harvests. This was not enough for her family of nine children. When the CwDCC Project was introduced to the farmers in the area in 2010, she, like other farmers, joined with the hope that this would bring a change to her fortunes. She enthusiastically adopted sorghum as a trial crop. Until then, she has never regretted. For the first time in her life, she harvested two tonnes of sorghum (from the 5kg seed pack she received from the project) - enough for her annual cereal requirements, and got surpluses for sale to a local beer brewing company. With the proceeds, she bought an ox for $300. Her biggest challenge as she said it, was actually warding off wild birds from her fields. “I had literally abandoned the homestead. My field had become the kitchen, the lounge and the dining room for me.” In the same year, other smallholder farmers in her area had planted maize but the crop was a complete writeoff. During the 2011/2012 farming season, she harvested 1,350 tonnes as the land was dry and highly unproductive, again. She said: “Development agencies and the government continue flooding us with maize seed packs in the name of agricultural recovery despite the overwhelming evidence of failure by this crop. Even the local agrodealer seldom stocks sorghum or millet meal, let alone the seed! It’s always maize meal or maize seed, and we had been used to it.” In the 2011/2012 farming season, Makondo’s field, as were those of other participating farmers who took up small grains, were the only evidence of cropping in the area. Elimon Chauke, the agricultural extension worker in the ward, also said of the small grains: “It’s amazing that we have continued to encourage farmers in this region to plant maize despite maize’s disappointing record. We need to promote small grains because what’s the logic of planting maize when it’s evident we struggle to get 400mm of rainfall in any given year?” The small grains will remain a source of hope for the smallholder farmers in Chiredzi District. Despite this life of difficulties and few joys, Makondo keeps on fighting. Hers is a philosophy based on courage and on confidence that she will succeed. “This work is so hard that if anyone thinks of failure before they start, they are sure to fail because they won’t have tried at all!” 22 The farmers are given one sorghum and one millet variety, plus training in seed selection and crop breeding. The aim is to strengthen local seed production and develop local capacity in this area. There have also been trials of a number of different crops and varieties carried out by the smallholder farmers in Chiredzi District, as shown in the tables below. Table 1: Trials of different crops and varieties Yr Rainfall Maize Sorghum P. Millet mm t/ha t/ha t/ha 09/10 447 0.3 0.55 1.05 10/11 468 0.65 1.15 1.2 11/12 242 0 0.4 0.75 23 24 Table 2: Farmers evaluation of various adaptive strategies 4.3.2 Cassava production Cassava was piloted on two village sites. The crop has a number of advantages that make it attractive as a crop to promote under any climate change adaptation strategy for southeast Zimbabwe. It has also been proven that cassava provides an excellent insurance against hunger. Other advantages of the crop are: The crop is not easily affected by dry spells once established. Tubers can be left in the ground (unharvested) for long periods as a food reserve. Well adapted to multispecies agricultural production systems Due to its extensive root system, cassava can grow in impoverished soils to support other crops with yields of fresh tuberous roots up to 5-6 t/ha. Under good management, yields can be as high as 40-60 t/ha. Cassava tubers can be value added to produce a range of products including livestock feed. (Adapted from Goz/UNDP/GEF/CwDCC Fact Sheet). 25 BOX 3: Cassava: the “wonder – crop” of drought hit Chiredzi Cassava is one of the most “disgraced” crops in Africa, of which Zimbabwe is no exception. It is also considered as the poor man’s food. Despite its downgrading nature, it is one of the crops that have made countries like Thailand royal. In fact, as cocoa is to Ghana so is cassava to Thailand as cassava production has fuelled economic growth and economic development. Prominent in its industrial applications is the use of cassava for glue, biscuits, pharmaceutical products, confectionery, noodles, magi cubes, paper-cartons, animal feed, pastries, mosquito coils, confectionaries, ethanol, textile industrial products, dry cell batteries, toothpaste, biodegradable products and, most recently, the brewery industry is using it as alternative or complementary to sorghum, maize starch and barley. Cassava is a crop with very low production cost, extremely resilient, and performs well on marginal lands, such as in Chiredzi District. It is no wonder that the African Union declared cassava as the crop of the decade (2000 – 2010). Despite all these benefits, not enough has been done in Zimbabwe to uplift cassava’s image to its appropriate status. In 2009, 59 year-old Evelyn Hanyani from Ward 11in Chiredzi District said she was happy to be involved in growing cassava under the CWDCC Project. She said: “I got the seed from Agritex and the crop matured well in the first year….this is a new crop to the area and we are all excited about it!” The crop was introduced in the area to help the community manage the risks of climate change. If well cultivated, cassava can be used both as a starch providing a staple food known as sadza in Zimbabwe while its leaves can be cooked as a vegetable. Hanyani also said: “I have since noticed that I made the right decision to venture into cassava production because it has proved to be the right crop for this area that receives little rainfall. “The CwDCC Project also taught us that the plant has other disease free varieties which we are eager to try out.” One challenge the farmers are facing is lack of fencing for their cassava fields as livestock destroy the crop. Daniel Mariga, of the Chiredzi Research Station said the introduction of cassava in the area is good because it is drought tolerant and can survive without fertilizer and yield a good harvest. But people may not be used to this crop. There is need to popularize the crop to enable the people deal with hunger. The opportunities for commercial production of cassava will encourage some youth back into farming. Benefits abound and they include improved access to markets, increased productivity; and improved market information will be made available to farming families involved in this project. However, the cassava pilot demonstration project was a success and had huge potential as an adaptation practice. 26 4.3.3 Introduction of suitable crop varieties Assessments of preliminary impacts of the Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project pilot demonstrations were done in 2010. The table below shows the performance of three white sorghum varieties from a “mother” demonstration site in the project pilot site in Ward 7 of Chiredzi District. From the table, it can be seen that the two improved varieties of Macia and SV4 outperformed the commonly grown local sorghum variety during the 2009-2010 cropping season, which had 400mm of rainfall. Table 3: Yield gains from white Sorghum, variety and tillage treatment in WARD 7, Chiredzi District during the 2009-10 cropping season, from a 10 x 10 m farmer field demonstration plot Yield (Kgs) Sorghum Varieties Tillage Treatment Macia SV4 Local Tied Ridges 50 15 0 Deep Plough Furrows 30 10 0 Conventional Flat 0 0 0 “Zai”pits1 0 0 0 Source: Unganai, L: 2011 – Coping with Drought and Climate Change – a case study documentation. The table also shows the effects of tillage treatment on yield. From the 10 x 10 m demonstration plot, it was possible for the farmer to obtain a yield of 50 kg of Macia and 30 kg of SV4 (this translates to about 0.5t/ha and 0.3t/ha respectively) compared with nil for the local variety from the tied ridge tillage treatment. The next tillage treatment that gave some reasonable yields was the deep plough furrows. No yield was obtained from the conventional flat land preparation and the “zai” pits for all the three varieties. What is also evident from the table is that the tillage treatment could not improve the yields of the local sorghum variety normally grown by the farmers. On the other hand, “Zai” pits which are normally hand dug, are not the solution in this region where the HIV and AIDS pandemic and migration to neighbouring countries, has created a farm labour crisis for households. Heavy rainfall events coupled with a poor soil structure makes it difficult for the 27 farmers to maintain the rainfall harvesting structures. “Zai” pits proved to be the least stable, being destroyed after the first rainfall event. 4.3.4 Soil and water conservation activities Addressing the challenges The uptake of technologies in this area has been widespread. Water conservation in both fields and gardens was identified as the top priority need in the original discussions, and soil and water conservation technologies have, from the beginning, excited the most interest and enthusiasm. Tied ridges continue to be taken up by farmers, encouraged by the positive results of their neighbours. At a visit by Chiredzi Research Station and Agritex staff to the project in 2011,the farmers explained that they found tied ridges hard work but effective in harvesting water and conserving soil and moisture, and that crops planted on the ridges grow faster than those in plots without ridges. The end of the farming season review in 2011 concluded that tied ridges are efficient methods of conserving soil and moisture, and that tied ridges help to minimize the problems of draught power and labour shortage in land preparation. In addition, there is also a positive effect on soil erosion in the area. Figure 5: Tied ridges were one of the most popular techniques for conserving water. 28 Disadvantages of these measures include the heavy labour input; and the danger of water-logging in heavy rains, although the ridges are designed so that the ties can easily be broken to allow access water to flow away. The work required to construct the tied ridges, on the whole, as capital investment, as the levels of maintenance needed are considerably lower than the initial construction work (Murwira, K et al, 2000 in “Beating Hunger, The Chivi Experience - A Community-Based Approach to Food Security in Zimbabwe). 4.3.5 Supporting small-scale irrigation development Technology and agricultural innovations Horticultural crops often provide the first opportunity for cash income for smallholders. They are high value, can be produced on a micro-basis, and have local neighborhood markets as well as national, and export demand potential. However, widespread commercialization at a level that can benefit many small-scale farmers can only be achieved if a reliable supply of water is available. 29 For this reason, the CwDCC Project started working with the community at the five-hecatre Tamuwanyika Irrigation Scheme in Ward 7 in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanization and Irrigation Development (MAMID), and other government agencies to revive small-scale irrigation through the introduction of horticultural crops for both fresh markets and Box 3: Small-scale irrigation transforming Chiredzi smallholder farmers A small-scale irrigation project being run by smallholder farmers in Ward 7 of Chiredzi District, is giving them access to nutritious vegetables and other crops. The aim of the five – hectare Tamuwanyika Project is to reduce malnutrition and enable smallholder farmers generate income through small-scale irrigation. Ultimately, it will act as a buffer to combat hunger in the face of crippling droughts. The project demonstrates the positive impact of affordable technology on food security and nutrition among smallholder farmers. “We are excited about the project,” says 41 year old Elizabeth Gezani, a beneficiary of the project. She is among 100 villagers in the area engaged in the irrigation project. Gezani hails the technological interventions. She says: “Because of the project, nutritional standards have improved and we will be slowly moving away from poverty.” Smallholder farmers will grow three cycles of crops, including at least one cycle of vegetable crops during winter and early maize or bean crop that can be harvested in December. During the dry season, the irrigation scheme resembles an “oasis in the desert “. A formerly waste land is turned into a greenbelt. This type of irrigation by smallholder farmers aims at reducing rural poverty and enhances food security at both the household and community level. Farmers in Zimbabwe often see irrigation as a major strategy to increase vegetable production on their limited lands. A glaring need is for agricultural technologies that are land and labour saving, to ensure sound environmental conservation. They should also be economically profitable but, socially acceptable to the communal farmers. In addition, linkages between research and extension services must be strong so that new technologies generated from research stations to improve food production can be successfully transferred to farmers' land. During a tour of the scheme in December 2012, farmers welcomed the scheme. “The project is useful,” said Gezani. Her garden had a variety of vegetables, and maize. However, there is a need for the smallholders to strengthen their irrigation management committee (IMC) and take the project as a –business. This should be done by accessing training in basic budgeting, record keeping and the use of good agricultural practices. They should also improve on the water capacity of the scheme so that irrigation cycles would be increased and easily managed. 30 processing. Maximizing returns also requires new technologies that ensure high yields, top-quality products, and competitive prices. For example, at Tamuwanyika Irrigation Scheme, the project has invested in rehabiltating the scheme in partnership with 100 housholds. The farmers have already planted mamgo trees, maize, cow peas, and horticultural vegetables. Figure 6: Small-scale irrigation can help transform smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacity. 4.3.6 Community-Based Natural Resources Management (CBNRM) as an adaptation strategy Taming poaching through CBNRM Village vigilantes in Ward 8, in Chibwedziva area of Chiredzi, are slowly curbing poaching, to the benefit of the environment and ultimately, rural development in this vast remote rural area. The 400 households (or 2,000 people),are beneficiaries of a community-based natural resources management(CBNRM) programme,which is complementing efforts of the CwDCC Project in Chiredzi District. “The villagers’ efforts to rein in poachers have been successful because of co-operation among themselves,” said David Tsumele, the chairperson of the Chehondo Communal Areas Management Programme for Indigenous Resources (CAMPFIRE) project at Likulu Wilderness. 31 To survive, the local community in this dryland has to find other sources of accessing income to buy food and other basic requirements. The CAMPFIRE Project is coming in handy to fulfill this need. So far, income from the project has enabled them to buy a grinding mill, open a grocery store, and establish a building fund to contribute towards constructing a school and teachers’ houses. They have also bought a pick-up truck. Village vigilantes And, the Chehondo CAMPFIRE Project activities have far out-paced similar anti-poaching efforts by the police and National Parks rangers. The villagers are helping to enforce natural resource management by-laws gazetted by the Chiredzi Rural District Council. Before the introduction of the programme in the area, the local people lived in fear of, and alienation from, the wildlife of the area which include rhinos, elephants, and buffalos. Poaching was also rife in an area where agriculture meets resistance because of the poor soils and rugged terrain characteristic of most communal lands in Zimbabwe. But now, as a result of community-based natural resources management, they are seeing the animals as a valuable resource, which they are anxious to conserve. Wildlife-based economy Chiredzi Rural District Council’s heavy emphasis on a wildlife-based economy has generated feedback from the Chehondo community. The community says conservation must allow for human development, giving rural people room to prosper. These people have sought a symbiosis between them and their ancient enemies – wild animals. The Likulu Wilderness area, covering about 7,000sq km, and adjacent to the Gonarezhou National Park (GNP), can generate an annual average of at least $10,000 from the hunting of just two elephants. Other benefits come from additional revenue through the sale of other wild-life products, such as hides and meat from wildlife cropping, and from live animal sales. This is one of the drought coping strategies that the community is involved in. According to the CAMPFIRE model (CAMPFIRE Association Annual Report, 2005), sport hunting and ecotourism provide the primary economic and financial basis for implementation of the CAMPFIRE Programme. The revenue earned is distributed to RDCs and communities according to CAMPFIRE guidelines originally developed in 1991 and later revised in 2002(CAMPFIRE Association and WWFSARPO(2003),CAMPFIRE Revenue Manual.WWF-SARPO,Harare). CAMPFIRE Revenue Guidelines The guidelines seek to ensure that producer communities are the primary beneficiaries of the revenue earned. According to the 2002 guidelines, natural resource producer communities must receive not less than 55 percent of gross revenue. RDCs receive a maximum of 26 percent of gross revenue for 32 management activities and maximum of 15 percent of gross revenue as a levy. The CAMPFIRE Association receives 4 percent of gross revenue as a levy. In an interview, the CwDCC Project Manager, Dr Leonard Unganai, said the project compliments the CAMPFIRE initiative because of the work the communities were doing in CBNRM. “What the community is doing in natural resources management compliments our work in terms of both climate change mitigation and adaptation,” he explained. The project helped the community with the sinking of three boreholes to supply water to the wildlife. It also assisted in the training of game guards who take care of any security threats including poaching, fire out breaks and problem animal control (PAC). Apart from the training, the project assisted with the acquisition of uniforms and equipment for firefighting for the game guards. Local problems, local solutions Said Dr Unganai: “Lilkulu is not a protected area. There are many such pieces of land around this area and this community could become a model for the whole country.” However by December 2012, the project had not yet established viable ecotourism and other Private Partnership ventures. Environmental and development model The CAMPFIRE Programme, established nationally in 1989, was conceptually designed to focus on wildlife, woodlands, water, grazing resources, and grasslands. In practice, it focused on wildlife because of the direct monetary benefits which this resource offered to “producer” communities. The CAMPFIRE concept (see Murphree, 1993; Jones and Murphree, 2002) was developed in response to the realization that unless communities living adjacent to national parks can obtain direct value from wildlife, they will not protect the wildlife. These communities, according to the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), would also need to have a much greater say in how those benefits would be derived and utilized. CBNRM refers to natural resource management that is based on common property theory, which suggests that land and natural resources should be managed by the people who live with and depend on them. It also includes the concept of collaborative management which comprises agreement between local communities and conservation authorities for negotiated access to natural resources (Jones and Murphree, 2001). CBNRM logic CBNRM’s logic is that the rights to natural resources should be transferred to local communities to reestablish economic incentives for sustainable management. From this perspective, local communities become the “producer communities” for natural resources (Hulme and Murphree, 2001). The rationale for CBNRM is also based on the premise that local communities that derive direct economic benefit from managing natural resources will protect those resources. Thus CBNRM incorporates an argument in favour of local control that is both normative and instrumental. First, 33 producer communities should be allowed to realize benefits from the product that they produce. Second, if the communities benefit from the product, they will be more likely to continue to manage it, thus contributing towards conservation. 4.3.7 Captive wildlife breeding as an alternative source of livelihood Twenty eight households in Ward 7 (Chilonga) are involved in a wildlife farming project. The households represented the entire membership of the farmers in the 42 ha- Chilonga Community Irrigation Scheme in this Ward. The project was made possible because the farmers were allocated a farm which already had crocodile farming structures. However, the structures needed refurbishment, which the farmers undertook enthusiastically. The project was conceived more or less along the lines of a co-operative – farmers agreed to work together and share equally amongst the members. The scheme started in 2005 as an irrigation project where the members grew various horticultural crops. The farmers used proceeds from the sale of the crops to buy a grinding mill and ventured into piggery in 2008. Figure 7: Although a long -term project, crocodile farming was another way of adapting to climate change for villagers in Ward 7, Chiredzi District. In this crocodile farming project, which was established in 2009, the smallholder farmers pick eggs in the nearby crocodile infested Runde River. Each nest can have 30-60 eggs. The eggs are then carefully transferred to incubators that have been established in the crocodile breeding area. 34 Humidity and temperature are carefully controlled to allow for successful hatching. The incubation period is about 80-85 days. Picking the eggs During the first year of the project, the farmers produced 318 hatchlings out of 359 eggs picked, out of a target of 1,000 hatchlings per year. Since then 276 crocodiles have survived. With the training that the members have continuously received from the CwDCC Project, in collaboration with the Zimbabwe National Parks and Wildlife Management Authority, the survival rate for the crocodiles is expected to improve in the future. However, the farmers agree that this is a long-term project and that returns take time to mature. “I am not worried about how long it takes for the crocodiles to mature. I am more concerned about the future,” said 46 year-old Maria Safuri, a member of the crocodile farming project. “We have other means of survival, such as the grinding mill, so we are eager to wait. The project is an alternative livelihood strategy to cope with drought and climate change effects. 4.3.8 Fisheries Production and Management Trade in fish and fisheries products can play an important role in the development strategies of many developing countries, including Zimbabwe. The CwDCC Project is assisting smallholder framers in Chiredzi District to diversify into fisheries production and management. The farmers have gone into partnership with the Zimbabwe National Parks and Wildlife Management Authority to promote fish farming in Chiredzi. Masukwe Dam in Ward 13 has been identified as suitable for this exercise. Fifty – six farmers have organized themselves to undertake this initiative. They have received training in fishing and basic business management. The potential of this project is high. The investment costs are not very high and the project starts generating revenue from the very beginning thus strengthening its potential. Fishing does not require high skills and with proper management, the project should succeed. In terms of marketing, the project also has an advantage that the market is already available and except for processing, no financial requirements are needed to develop the market. Environmental impacts are minimal since the camps will only house a few individuals. In addition, if optimum harvesting levels are maintained, fishing will not harm the environment. The critical parameter for the project is community organization and participation as well as full collaboration with the Rural District Council (RDC). 35 Figure 8: Fishing does not require high skills and with proper management, the project should succeed. However, nationally, the potential contribution of fisheries to the diet of communities in Zimbabwe’s communal lands is constrained by three major factors: More than 60 percent of the country’s small dams where artisanal fishing takes place are located in commercial farming areas (Chenje et al, 1998) which are privately owned. There is a lack of user rights and tenure security for dams in communal lands; and Most of the small dams dry out completely during the dry season and during droughts, especially in the semi-arid regions where the majority of the rural population resides in communal lands. (Mazambani, D et al, 2010, in “Community-Based Natural Resource Management – Stocktaking Assessment, Zimbabwe Profile”). Given these constraints, there have been concerted efforts aimed at supporting fisheries under various community-focused programmes. The efforts can be divided into three types: Pond-based subsistence aquaculture whereby a household may have one or two fish ponds providing a protein source for domestic consumption; Community reservoirs or dams constructed to store water for community use(irrigation and watering livestock) are stocked with fish which are subsequently harvested as common pool resources; and Support for fishing enterprises in large reservoirs, especially Lake Kariba. The fisheries project in Chiredzi District falls under the second category. Below is a table on natural resources management project plan to strengthen the CwDCC Project. 36 37 4.3.9 Livestock Production and Management The Livestock challenge The CwDCC Project sought to increase the resilience of Chiredzi smallholder farmers to the impacts of drought and climate change through knowledge transfer. Farmers and extension workers were expected to be equipped by the tried and tested techniques for reducing drought risk in livestock production as part of the project’s interventions. Enhancing and optimizing livestock production for draught power and income generation was identified by the farmers involved in the CwDCC Project, as one of the priority areas for coping with drought and climate change adaptation. Under the pilot project, a number of possible drought coping strategies and future climate change adaptation strategies for smallholder livestock producers were explored. Farmers face challenges in accessing adequate feed during the dry season and pastures and water become scarce during a drought. The CwDCC Project is working with smallholder farmers to develop local fodder conservation strategies to keep their livestock in good condition during the dry season and in times of drought. The farmers have also devised ways to see their livestock through drought by feeding them on locally available tuber, locally called “zhombwe”. Such local knowledge systems provide invaluable insights for adaptation. 38 Box 4: Indigenous and modern Knowledge Systems rescue livestock “Domestic animals are our source of wealth,” says Makanani Musiiwa, of Ward 11 in Chikombedzi area of Chiredzi District. The 50 year old mother of five, received para-vet training under the CWDCC Project. “We have to fight animal diseases or else we’ll lose out,” she adds. “Smallholder farmers in this area may gamble with other things, but not with their livestock.” Every week, Musiyiwa meets with other farmers who have different levels of challenges confronting their livestock. All need veterinary support services and information on animal nutrition. The project worked with the Department of Livestock Production and availed basic veterinary equipment. Working with community representatives, the project is providing veterinary support services to smallholder farmers in the ward in vaccinations, dosing, castrations and clipping, as well as animal feeding. One of the immediate impacts of the scheme at the ward level is that kid mortality rates had been reduced significantly. For most of the smallholder farmers in Ward 11, increasing their cattle and goat herds had been a major struggle, with many farmers maintaining goat herds of less than 10. “Many people in the ward are now aware of the need to have their cattle and goats safe from diseases. These diseases are easily preventable through regular check ups, treatment and feeding, yet they claim the lives of hundreds of livestock annually,” said Julius Manyenyeni, a Livestock Extension Worker in the ward. And, during the wet season, rangeland forage is of adequate quality and quantity for livestock to thrive, but grazing declines from April onwards. By August/September, livestock need supplementary feeding to sustain growth rates and prevent loss of summer weight gains. Resources for feeding can be from specially grown pastures or multi-purpose trees. During drought years, when rains are poor, rangeland grasses are scarce and supplementary feeding is required. To boost energy and enhance draught power productivity, animals were fed on a local bulbous plant called zhombwe. The plant was dug out, diced into pieces and dried before being fed to animals. The plant may be toxic when eaten by other animals or human beings. The benefit of this feeding is that the animal gains vigour is de-wormed, attains higher strength and more effective to farm work. The farmers also believe that the plant controls ticks and boosts milk production. Before starting supplementary feeding, Musiiwa lost four cattle due to drought. The remaining eight cattle reproduced poorly, often only producing two calves in a year. She could not sell her few cattle to meet other household needs, such as buying food for the family and paying school fees for her children. Supplementary feeding has resulted in her now owning 15 cattle. The family has enough draught power, too. 39 Figure 9: The CwDCC Project is working with smallholder farmers to develop local fodder conservation strategies to keep their livestock in good condition during the dry season and in times of drought. Evidence from the pilot demonstration projects in Chiredzi District and results from livestock stations suggest that the strategies listed below can see livestock through the dry season and drought events. 40 Table 4: Livestock drought coping mechanisms Dry season coping strategies Drought management strategies Pasture management to allow for carryover from the wet to dry season Invest in developing browse feed sources Invest in local or adapted breed Early weaning of calves Forage production and conservation Develop and use boreholes for watering livestock Forage production and conservation Allow more time for grazing Improved utilization of crop residues Early weaning of cow-calf pairs Destocking, starting with inferior animals Use supplements Diversify livestock types Use of agro-industry by-products and feed from locally available feed sources Use of browse Source: GoZ/UNDP/GEF/CwDCC: Coping with Drought in Livestock Production: A Farmer’s Handbook. However, the communal land-tenure system may be a challenge and complicate sustained implementation of some of the strategies listed above. The main handicap to using supplements and agro-industry by products were identified as cost of purchase and transportation. What is however, emerging from this intervention is that with or without a drought, the most important factor for the successful and sustained livestock production in any climate is grazing management. 41 5.0 A weather-based farming model for vulnerable communities The Issues "We are no longer sure when to start preparing the land for planting or when to start planting. It’s pretty much gambling with nature. In the past, the rainfall pattern was predictable – we had Madzura Chando (winter rains )in June, followed by Gukurahundi rains in August, Bumharutsva rains in September and the Kutemera Gwati rains which signalled the start of the new rain season. These days, sometimes the rains come too early or too late, or are not enough for crop production, while at other times, they are too much. They flood and destroy the crops. If the situation persists, then most of us, who have small farms, will sink deeper into poverty, because we depend on rainfed agriculture for our livelihood,” says 55-year old Estheri Hatlani (one of the lead farmers in the Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project), in Chiredzi District to the southeast of Zimbabwe. It is well known that the productivity of agriculture is highly dependent on climate, particularly rainfall. Climate hazards such as droughts and floods have in the past caused major losses in crop and livestock production, and other sectors of the economy such as energy and health. Communities that are most vulnerable to climate related risks are those in rural areas with limited access to infrastructure, technology, knowledge and financial resources. However, technological opportunities now exist that can assist vulnerable communities cope with agro-climatic risks. The Response One of the strategies used by the Coping with Drought and Climate Change project was to improve the climate knowledge of the local community to enhance their adaptive capacity. Planning, early warning and well prepared response strategies based on locally generated climate information and improved climate early warning systems are critical elements for reducing climate related losses. However, factors that affect agricultural productivity go beyond climate, making the risk management decision making process more complex. 42 Figure 10: Model Village level climate monitoring station. The concept of “seeing is believing, practicing is learning and skill development; and if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it” can be demonstrated by the village level climate monitoring stations established at eight sites in Chiredzi District under the Coping with Drought project. The sites established over instrument gardens measuring 10 m x 10 m each and manned either by resident extension workers, schools or farmers, are equipped with a standard meteorological rain gauge, Stevenson screen with maximum and minimum temperature thermometers, a dry and wet bulb hygrometer for relative humidity and in a few selected sites an evaporation pan. The weather information collected assists farmers to gradually establish weather based rules of thumb for crop and livestock management. The project also used the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to develop a binary forecast model for Chiredzi District which is more skilful than available products. The model estimates the probability of a drought occurring during the October to December and January to March sub-seasons. A drought forecast was found to be more useful to farmers than the usually issued probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal rainfall. Extension workers were also equipped with solar powered laptops with Internet access to enable them to regularly access 10-day precipitation outlooks to help farmers manage climate risks. 43 Figure 11: Farmers getting 10-day outlook from extension worker using a solar powered laptop computer The impact “Within just two years of establishing village level climate monitoring stations and a dissemination system for 10-day and seasonal climate outlooks, the demand for climate information among the farmers has increased tremendously”, says Mr Mushay,i an Extension Supervisor in Ward 11 of Chiredzi District. The farmers mostly use recorded rainfall information coupled with the 10-day outlook and seasonal forecast to make informed decisions about the timing of planting, soil moisture conservation, crop mixes and decisions of the selling of past season harvest. Data from the evaporation pan is used in improving irrigation scheduling for those with gardens or irrigation, whereas temperature and relative humidity data is useful in anticipating and preparing for pests and disease outbreaks. “So far, this is mid-December and we have received only 30 mm of rainfall, which is not enough for us to start planting or even land preparation in this part of Chiredzi”, said Mrs Kasha as she started sharing her experiences on how the village level weather station is helping them make more informed crop management decisions than before. 44 Evidence from this case study suggests that the development of climate risk management consciousness among the farming community can gradually lead to the adoption of more sustainable farming practices in vulnerable regions. However, an important starting point should be the development of infrastructure for climate monitoring by local communities in partnership with the National Weather Service. Manual type instruments were found to be more suitable as they were less complex and relatively inexpensive. Just a few hours of training were sufficient to enable village farmers, both men and women, to be able to take fairly accurate temperature and rainfall readings. As communication technology continues to advance, a number of options for enhancing extension workers and farmers’ access to relevant climate information are increasingly becoming available as shown in this case study. As a pilot effort, the case study has provided a good example of community based adaptation. Such modest infrastructure coupled with improved local level climate forecast systems, if scaled up, have potential to contribute towards climate change adaptation in the context of managing climate risks at a local level. This component introduced a new, reportedly more accurate and effective system of providing weather forecasts and crop planting advice to farmers. This is a significant contribution since the current Met Office forecasts have been shown to be largely unreliable, tending to over-forecast near normal rainfall and usually failing to predict below normal events including droughts. The new method involving locally generated forecasts is an important contribution to agricultural climate change adaptation in southern Africa. The anecdotal information on the pilot testing indicates positive results from these forecasts, but comparative data with the traditional system were not available. Although the project managed to generate interest in a range of climate forecast products among extension workers and farmers’ consistent dissemination and uptake have been constrained by poor communication infrastructure and limited decentralised services from the National Weather Service. 5.1 Adaptive learning and replication A variety of knowledge products, experiences-sharing and learning events have been produced by the project in support of climate change adaptation in Zimbabwe. Awareness raising at both the district and national level was provided through the project. Among others, a website for the project was created alongside, flyers, posters and technical reports that enhance public and farmer understanding of climate change risks and adaptation opportunities. However household replication of emerging adaptation technologies is still limited due to the cost of technology and lack of availability of technical backstopping through extension services. 45 5.1.1 National institutions have capacity to improve knowledge The project completed a series of technical studies and reports that identified the particular climate change risks and vulnerabilities to crop and livestock production systems in Chiredzi District, along with the possible adaptation measures. It has emerged based on the project experiences that departmental budgets are a key aspect of capacity to deliver climate change adaptation, so far relatively limited support was provided by and to the line agencies expected to implement field activities at the community and household level. 5.2. Cost of adaptive strategies Sustainability was a key consideration in the choice of adaptive strategies for pilot projects by the CwDCC Project and beneficiaries. Priority was given to those strategies that were building up on local knowledge, existing initiatives and those that could be easily supported later on by government departments working with the farmers. Establishing strategic partnerships and encouraging farmers to use as much of their own resources as possible was therefore a key sustainability strategy adopted by the project, and this had huge implications on the final resources required for project implementation. The table below highlights these points: 46 Table 5: Costs of production Estimated costs of selected adaptation strategies Area of intervention Adaptive strategy Improvements in water - Large scale irrigation availability for agriculture - Rehabilitation of irrigation scheme - Community garden - Bucket drip irrigation - Drum kit irrigation - Treadle pump - In-field rainwater conservation technologies Improvements in rainfed crop - Optimizing crop mixes production Improvements in livestock - Optimizing breed mix production - Management and conservation locally available fodder for the dry season and drought periods Nature conservation as an - Nature conservation alternative source of (Natural Resources livelihood Management) - Captive crocodile breeding - Aquaculture Climate information - Local level climate monitoring for decision support - Application of medium to long range forecasts Cost $6000/ha $3500/ha $3000/ha $2200/ha $308/ha $100/ha $160/household $765/household $108/household $550/ household $1250/household $250/household $30/household Source: Unganai, L: 2011 47 6.0 Factors enabling success This section briefly describes the various ways in which the choice of technologies available to the communities was widened and used to the benefit of the CwDCC Project in Chiredzi. Understanding existing knowledge. One of the objectives of the CwDCC Project was to build on (and enhance) the traditional knowledge within the communities. In keeping with this objective, and the ethos that people’s knowledge must be respected, it was necessary to find out what the community already knew and to try and extend this knowledge base. Following the needs assessment and prioritization process, the CwDCC Project undertook a survey to audit existing knowledge of both water conservation, growing of suitable crop varieties and livestock production techniques, and early warning systems. In doing this work, the project used the following methods: 1) Semi-structured interviews and discussions with individuals who included traditional leaders like the kraalheads,extension workers, elderly people and other community members 2) Discussions at group meetings 3) Observations in both crop fields and gardens 4) Feedback and sharing meetings with communities 6.1 Exposure visits Often, the solutions to priority needs were found within the community. For example, many of the people in the community wanted to explore other communities’ ways of coping with drought and climate change. When this happened, “exposure visits” were organized to sources of knowledge outside the community, undertaken by community representatives. This meant that rather than the project presenting a single, or even multiple, solutions to the community, its own representatives saw for themselves a range of options, and community members made an informed choice about what type of technologies to pursue. It was anticipated that this would give community ownership of the decision – encouraging both motivation to try out a technical option and the freedom to abandon it if it proved unsuccessful. 48 6.2 Decentralised network of extension workers and research stations These provided a strategic partnership advantage for the project. The understanding of the local context made it easier for the project to work with technologies and farmers that had a good chance of succeeding. Extension workers greatly assisted the project management unit with community mobilization and local project monitoring at no cost. 6.3 Chiredzi Research Station, Masvingo Province At Chiredzi, the farmers saw sub-surface irrigation techniques, such as tied ridges and deep furrows. The farmers liked the tied ridges technique. These tied ridges consist of ploughing and ridging at specific row spacing, followed by an operation to tie the ridges before planting. They are constructed using hand hoes or a single - donkey drawn ridge tie. They impede run-off thereby promoting infiltration. Tied ridges are usually in-situ rainwater harvesting technologies because they harvest rainwater where it falls. They are one of the conventional approaches to soil and water conservation, designed to enhance infiltration of rainwater into the soil. These have been found to be the most productive of the rainwater harvesting technologies in semi-arid areas. They can produce an average maize yield of about 3.6 tonnes per hectare in agro-ecological Regions 4 and 5 (Motsi et al, 2003). 6.4 Training When the technical options had been selected by the community meetings, training was arranged for the groups who were to pilot the process, facilitated by the CwDCC Project. In most cases, the trainings took place in the villages, led in the initial stages by outsiders from the relevant research station or project (later, trainings were led by community members or staff from Agritex).The technologies included sub-surface irrigation, pest management, water harvesting, and crop diversification. Below is the cycle of project implementation that the project used. Cycle of project implementation (Figure 12) 49 6.5 Testing, adaptation and analysis of technologies Following trainings in 2008 and 2009, the farmers started experimenting with the new options. The testing and adaptation technologies by framers themselves aimed to increase their technical capacity and strengthen their ability and confidence to experiment and innovate. Some carried out their own comparative trials, planting, for example, on top of the tied ridges in half the field, and on the other side of the ridge in the other half. Various modifications were made by individual farmers on their own initiative. Mini reviews were held during and at the end of the season to facilitate the sharing of the results of this stage, at which farmers shared their experiences, innovations and analysis with each other. 6.6 Farmer-to-farmer dissemination and seed multiplication Dissemination of appropriate solutions within the project has focused on the process of Farmer Field Schools. This is based on the principle that farmers, both men and women, are best placed to share with each other the results of new ideas and innovations, as they usually share the same values and understanding and have trust in each other’s analysis (Murwira et al, in “Beating Hunger: The Chivi Experience – A Community-Based Approach to Food Security in Zimbabwe, 2000).This process of sharing information takes place irrespective of outside intervention, and in the case of Chiredzi District is evident in the spread of techniques from Chikombedzi to other areas in the project sites via friends and families. Figure 13: Farmers can run their own affairs if they are given the necessary directions through facilitators. 50 But, the CwDCC Project has also attempted to foster dissemination further through various activities. The methods used in both the exposure visits, trainings, CBNRM, early warning systems, where group representatives were responsible for sharing information about new options with fellow members, aimed to encourage farmer-to-farmer exchange. Non-participating farmers were invited to the mini-reviews, to enable them to be exposed directly to the new ideas. The community also adopted the agricultural extension service’s concept of field days and competitions and modified it into a community-led process, whereby officials are invited by the community as judges and given the criteria for judging. The field days enable farmers from the surrounding area to see for themselves the new ideas, and to talk to the farmers who are implementing them. At the same time, the farmers were involved in seed multiplication of Open Pollinated Varieties (OPVs). The idea of OPVs arose out of the challenge of suitable dryland crop varieties for the climate in Chiredzi District. The objective of seed multiplication of OPVs was to improve local availability of seed at reasonable cost. 6.7 Adoption After testing and dissemination, the new techniques and technologies were adopted by farmers. However, this is not a linear process, and adaptation and experimentation did not therefore cease at this point. An iterative process of trial and error, sharing of ideas and modification, continues as part of the food production cycle within the community. Throughout this technology development phase, the agricultural extension service, Agritex, was closely involved, pining in the training sessions, participating in the mini-reviews and learning not only about the technical results but also about the process of participatory technology development and the capacity of the farmers to manage that process themselves. 6.8 Farmer participation in research and experimentation A number of technologies, new to Chiredzi District, but known elsewhere, were adopted when the smallholder farmers returned from their trainings and exposure visits. These, and the indigenous technologies rediscovered through workshops, enabled the project to meet some of its objectives. As well as the dissemination of existing techniques, however, the CwDCC Project also aimed to influence the development of new technologies and genetic resources. Historically, agricultural research and extension policy in Zimbabwe has not encouraged farmer experimentation. Research has generally been based around on-station trials, and the results passed to extension services for dissemination to farmers, usually in the form of blanket recommendations with an insistence on rigid adherence to the message. As a result, adoption rates have been low (Hagmann et al, 1995). Internationally, there is now an increasing recognition that this model of extension is irrelevant, if not contrary, to the needs of resource-poor smallholder farmers (Scoones and Thompson 1994). 51 Part of the aim of the project has been to make and develop links between farmers and researchers to share the results of research more directly with farmers and not just with the extension services, and also to influence the research agenda to make it more responsive to the needs of the smallholder farmers. Research, if it is to be effective, needs to be informed by farmers’ priorities and in particular, their criteria for success. Through exposure visits and training sessions, research staff have been able to make direct contact with some of the farmers in Chiredzi, and a relationship is developing which has the potential to continue beyond the life of the CwDCC Project. The CwDCC Project has been collaborating with the Chiredzi Research Station and Makoholi Research Station to make the case to Agritex and the Department of Research and Specialist Services (DR and SS) for a more participatory approach to research and experimentation. The CwDCC Project is also recommending that Agritex organize district level fora for extension staff to meet with farmers to discuss the research agenda and share findings, rather than the current provincial level meetings were farmers are not represented. The role of the extension worker is also affected by these proposals: they can play a critical role in encouraging experimentation and facilitating the spread of information from farmer to farmer. 7.0 The adaptation model Developing adaptation strategies This section examines the need to develop a dedicated national climate change framework that is able to address the scale and scope of vulnerability in Zimbabwe and coordinate policy-making, investment and implementation, particularly at the local level. The section also examines the potential of climate governance to support these objectives. Strategies for adaptation need to ensure focus on the most important vulnerabilities and the needs of the people most affected. Vulnerability assessments are used to identify who is vulnerable to climate change and to prioritise their vulnerabilities according to risk, severity of potential impacts and expected time horizons (Spanger and Dougherty, 2004). Stakeholder participation is integral to adaptation strategies because to be effective, policies developed and enacted at higher levels need to be aligned with action taken to address risks and priorities identified locally. 52 This requires coordination across scales and negotiation and agreement of roles and responsibilities appropriate to different groups of stakeholders. For example: National and international levels – governments, intergovernmental organisations and international NGOs require knowledge of where vulnerable populations are located at the risks and challenges in risks they are facing – the basis for formulating policy and instruments that target effective responses at vulnerable people. National and regional levels – governments, civil society, business groups and research institutions need to know what their priorities should be in planning support for action to reduce vulnerability. Community level – local communities, NGOs, local government, businesses and vulnerable groups need to come together and participate in identifying what changes they are vulnerable to, where and who is vulnerable, and action needed to reduce their vulnerability. For the most part, it is the vulnerable people themselves who undertake adaptation, based on local hazards, risks, context, traditions and systems of organization. Adaptation therefore, consists mostly of local-scale action that is facilitated and supported by broader-scale policies, instruments and institutions. Development of infrastructure or institutional strategies that are beyond the control and capabilities of local communities take place at higher levels (IUCN – The World Conservation Union,2003) but the primary role of governments and international processes is in developing and implementing policy that is enabling. This must aim to ensure that the required resources, support and services are avaiulable to communities where they are needed most to help build adaptive capacity and strengthen resilience. In contrast to mitigation, which requires globally coordinated action, adaptation to climate change must be rooted located, as in the CwDCC Project where local communities are participating in the planning and implementation of the coping with drought and climate change activities. 53 7.1 Project Theory of Change or Adaptation The following table illustrates the theory of change involving all the relevant stakeholders. Table 6: Theory of change or adaptation 7.3 Adaptation priorities Response measures designed to reduce vulnerabilities have been developed by some nongovernmental organisations. These focus on capacity building, information dissemination, research and knowledge sharing, facilitation and innovation in agriculture and aquaculkture, and development of key services, such as provision of drinking water. 7.4 Integration of adaptation into poverty reduction To facilitate action at local levels, adaptation strategies need to effectively target the vulnerabilities of poor people. Adaptation cannot, therefore, be either top-down and prescriptive, or restricted in practice to discrete, narrowly focused adjustment (Adjer et al, 2003). 54 Adaptation by communities needs to be broad-based and aim to improve risk management and to broaden and deepen the pool of asserts that poor people can utilize in sustaining their livelihoods (D. Mark Smith: Just One Planet - Poverty, Justice and Climate Changte,Practical Action Publishing,2006). Increasing access to livelihood asserts, and reducing the risks of them being degraded or lost, improves the ability of poor people to cope with disruption and change, including climate change. To reduce vulnerability to climate change in communities, supporting policies and logically-based action should be guided by the need to first, build adaptive capacity – developing the capacity to adapt to climate change demands access to information, skills and technology, new finance and infrastructure, and stronger institutions and social equity (Munasinghe and Swart,2005);and second,build resilience – poor people need to have the ability to maintain their livelihoods and make progress in escaping poverty despite new shocks and adverse trends driven by climate change (IUCN-The World Conservation Union,2003) 7.5 Strengthening adaptive capacity Recognition of the nature of adaptation at community-level is vital to ensuring that adaptive capacity is effective. Much vulnerability to future climates will be related to existing vulnerabilities. Community-based vulnerability assessments therefore need to develop and raise awareness of the potential limits of traditional coping mechanisms, and hence identify where there is a risk that they will fail under climate change. However, effective strategies and policies need to be in place at higher levels to ensure that the adoptive capacities needed are locally available to enable change. According to Munasinghe and Swart (2005), attributes of adaptive capacity needed to incorporate climate change adaptation into community-based development include: Availability of information and skills – people can use information about vulnerability and the nature of climate change in devising new risk man agent and livelihood strategies. Effective institutions –communities benefit from access to support and services provided by well-organised institutions with flexible and appropriate policies in place in government, research, education, civil society and the private sector. Access to technology – many adaptation approaches involve use of technologies, such as flood control mfrastructure, early warning systems and crop breeding. Farmers may need new technologies for storing water, improving drainage and conserving soil. Capacity to develop and adapt technologies to local needs increases adaptation options and enables local enterprise development. 55 Economic resources – increasing incomes and improving access to financial resources is likely to give poor people more options for coping with climate change impacts. Ability to adapt is therefore strengthened by, for example, access to microcredit schemes, development of markets and local enterprise development to open new livelihood options that are resilient to climate impacts. The above scenario set the scene for improving the implementation of the CwDCC Project in CHiredzi District. . Figure 12: As the exploration of opportunities continues in Chiredzi District, and beyond, the adaptation model will remain a key challenge for the future. 56 8.0 Challenges faced A major challenge facing adaptation projects in Zimbabwe is the uncertainty associated with climatic variability. Most farmers in drylands such as Chiredzi District have experienced multiple climate risks and have confronted them with a diverse range of coping mechanisms as demonstrated elsewhere in this report. In particular, rural communities already possess good understandings of local climate patterns, including inter-/ intraannual rainfall variability, and are accustomed to coping with them. However, an important consequence of climate change is that future climate will be less familiar, more uncertain and, possibly, more extreme (Kurukulasuriya and Rosenthal, 2003). The implication is that current local practices, processes, systems and infrastructure, which have been more or less adapted to current climate conditions, could become increasingly unsuitable as the climate changes. This situation is worsened by varying local perceptions and interpretations of climate variability, which can be broad and diverse within different social groups and between communities, as demonstrated by the example of the Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project in Chiredzi District. The Chiredzi experience reflects a growing recognition in many parts of the developing world that autonomous adaptation strategies that were effective in the past are increasingly ineffective for coping with emergent climate change. Climatic variability and the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events means that past climate conditions will become decreasingly useful for predicting future climate (IIED Climate Change Working Paper Series Number 3, December 2012)). In addition, despite Africa’s vulnerability, few regional and sub-regional climate change scenarios based on regional climate models or empirical downscaling exist to inform local action (Parnell and Walawege, 2011).The lack of downscaled climate data is particularly problematic in countries like Zimbabwe where climate impacts and vulnerability are highly regionally differentiated. As a result, strengthening national and local capacities to manage climate risks, as they are currently understood, is imperative for dealing with climate risk in the future (Hellmuth et al., 2007). In an interview, CwDCC Project Manager, Dr Leonard Unganai said the Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project had the following challenges: 1. Community mobilization is always a challenge because of the heterogeneity among households. Identifying who to work with was not simple for the project. 2. Screening adaptation options. A number of technologies and practices for adaptation exist. However, some of the interventions require more time with farmers to evaluate efficacy and social acceptance. 3. Low morale among project partners. Poor working conditions among project partner staff has been a challenge in securing maximum input and cooperation 4. Capacity constraints among project partner members. Years of economic challenges has seen a number of government departments lose qualified staff and failing to acquire the necessary equipment. Most partner staff at district level is hardly mobile and could monitor field activities using their own resources. 57 5. The way men and women in the project area perceived climate problems and the needs to address the challenges were different 6. Farmers' circumstances are not homogenous. This has a bearing on their adaptation option preferences 7. Metrics for adaptation require careful consideration for easy monitoring and eventually impact evaluation 8. The project needs a diverse range of technical skills and knowledge to impart on the participating farmers. 9.0 Lessons learnt A common lesson learnt was the importance of local context in developing adaptation strategies that build on local knowledge and cultural norms, practices and value systems. Major lessons that can be drawn from the project are the following: 1. For farmers to effectively participate in the process, considerable time has to be spent establishing a good rapport between them and the project officers. Given the correct environment for dialogue, farmers can draw up the priority areas to be tackled in a project. The Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project conducted extensive biophysical and participatory climate risk and vulnerability assessments before settling on adaptation options for pilot projects. A key lesson emerging from the project is that, understanding and tackling existing vulnerabilities play a key role in the response to climate change. Chiredzi district has very strong traditional value systems. The Shangani inhabitants of this region value wildlife and its behavior and also have a number customs that they religiously follow. For example, they will not till the land before local ancestral guides tell them to do so. This can be counter-intuitive when promoting certain adaptive strategies such as soil moisture management that might require the voice of the extension worker to be more important when it comes to such decisions(Unganai,L,2011) 2. Climate Change adaptation requires an institutionalized national strategic response framework. Observations from Chiredzi district suggest a challenge of local governance around issues of climate change adaptation. On the ground, there are too many actors with no guiding principles and coordination mechanisms to handle climate change issues. Because of lack of capacity, most technocrats in government cannot provide the necessary leadership. For climate change adaptation to continue, a national climate change mitigation and adaptation strategic framework supported by a legal framework and financial resources is required. A national coordination mechanism to provide technical and conceptual guidance on interventions and a monitoring and evaluation framework is necessary to advance climate change response. 3. Policies and legislation that are sensitive to the environmental and economic rights of communities have a positive impact on natural resources management. 58 4. Project could achieve more by focusing on coordination and facilitation roles. Empowering farmers is critical to their effective participation in project activities and to their ability to take a leading role in directing the activities to be undertaken. It is also necessary for extension workers to undergo training in participatory extension approaches. The project could reach out to more people and influence more farmers by focusing on playing coordination and facilitation roles. This implies bringing together the different players who are active in the district so that there is dialogue and documentation of what to do as well as how best to do it. This could be the next logical direction for the project to take. 5. A project should introduce a “basket of goods” addressing the identified priority needs for farmers to choose. In the project, farmers have been exposed to a range of strategies within the crop sector, and also some outside crops. Farmer managed demonstrations are the best way to do this, since it will make it possible to answer important evaluation questions, on: what works, why and under what circumstances? Such information will be policy relevant for up - scaling promising adaptation strategies. The crops pilot demonstration projects clearly showed the importance of farmer managed trials, since it was possible to screen technologies that will not be easily adopted by farmers because of the constraining farmers' circumstances. 6. Farmer-to-farmer extension attained through farmer empowerment can be more effective in extending technologies. Farmers are more confident to adopt a technology that a fellow farmer recommends after carrying out trials on their fields. Farmers have many social occasions that create opportunities for propagating the new technologies. 7. The capacity of farmers to implement good practices should be enhanced throughout the project. Several avenues can achieve this and include interaction with other farmers, visits to centres where good practices area developed and attending relevant courses. 8. Projects should not destroy existing institutions nor build completely new ones. The Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project strengthened existing institutions so that they directed project activities. Working with a small core team of staff, the project used existing structures at the local, district and national level to implement activities. 9. The very poor members of the community may not be able to participate in project activities. Direct efforts to ensure their active participation may be necessary. 10. Post-harvest storage is critical for sustainability of produce. 11. Scaling up requires access to good extension services and microfinance. 59 10.0 Conclusions and recommendations 10.1 Conclusions The project has developed and piloted a limited range of drought coping mechanisms and climate change adaptation measures that effectively reduce vulnerability to drought at the project sites. This approach in Chiredzi is a significant contribution to national strategies and programmes on climate change adaptation. Climate risks and vulnerabilities have been identified but with limited uptake beyond the project. Officials and smallholder farmers have increased awareness of climate change. The crop and income diversification strategies and conservation farming methods are gaining recognition but evidence of institutionalized acceptance and amended programmes for the adaptation measures are not yet apparent. The good agricultural practices (GAPs) and livestock production measures that have been put in place and practiced have measurably increased food security and income diversification and levels, resulting in resilience to climate change. Most of the agricultural adaptation measures are now being regularly adopted by farmers, although planting basins (Zai pits) apparently require too much labour. The other livelihood diversification activities have not been as successful or potentially sustainable. The new, localized seasonal rainfall forecasts are reported (anecdotally) by farmers as providing more accurate information and advice on crop planting decisions. This has also strengthened relations between extension workers and smallholder farmers. Extension staff feel that they have not had enough training and effectiveness of the new method needs to be empirically tested against conventional and indigenous forecasts. The success of certain adaptation measures has gained notable recognition at the project sites, and this may be spilling over to nearby villages. The food security and income effects are likely to drive replication. The project strategy has a profile and support in principle but is not yet integrated into national and district policies or systems (GoZ/UNDP/GEF, Terminal Evaluation of the CwDCC Project, 2012) 60 The project has been well managed given the limited resources and staffing, but the partnership approach has been constrained by the limitations imposed by many individual contractors delivering discrete components and the extensive, dispersed field activities that required greater field monitoring, supervision and facilitation. Prospects for sustainability are mixed. The agricultural productivity and income effects of agricultural measures will support sustainability. However, measures dependent on national/district intervention to advance climate change adaptation may lack the necessary resources and motivation to carry on with the project activities unless additional funding is found. Despite some project design and delivery constraints, the project has effectively achieved a core set of results that provide the national awareness, the initial technical foundation and important field lessons for more comprehensive programmes and projects to address drought and climate change in southern Zimbabwe. During the five- year lifespan of the project, there have been remarkable achievements in coping with drought and climate change adaptation in Chiredzi District. As the pilot phase ends, the project is taking stock of the successes and challenges of the pilot period. This will help the implementing agencies to plot the path for the future. While taking stock and celebrating its many successes, the CwDCC Project is aware that there are still major challenges to be overcome. The project will achieve its targets if the government, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) the private sector and local communities work to gather for a common goal: enhancing efforts in coping with drought and climate change. Showcasing the project remains a significant challenge. Another challenge is mainstreaming coping with drought and climate change work into planning and thinking of the various arms of government. But, these challenges can be overcome through programmes that demonstrate the values of climate change work, and share lessons learnt, and experiences gained. 61 10.2 Recommendations for the adaptation project Based on the analysis in this summary report of project achievements, the case studies presented and the literature cited, the following recommendations offer a way forward for addressing the challenges identified and for taking advantage of the opportunities supported by the Goz/UNDP/GEF/CwDCC Project. The recommendations and the general lessons arising from this summary report are relevant for a broader set of countries that are dealing with similar environmental, demographic and institutional challenges, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. The following are the recommendations on the CwDCC Project: i) To support smallholder farmers to cope with drought and climate change, there is a need to rehabilitate boreholes, dams and irrigation schemes ii) It is important to increase the capacity of the district drought relief committee so that it is pro-active. Capacity building may be in the form of training and resource mobilization. Local level drought risk reduction structures are important to ensure that drought risk reduction initiatives are community driven. There is growing evidence that most topdown drought risk management and response programmes fail to address the specific local needs of vulnerable communities, ignoring the potential of local resources and capacities and may in some cases even increase people’s vulnerabilities. It is therefore necessary to put more emphasis on community-based drought risk reduction programmes. iii) Testing the reliability of locally based early warning systems and building on these may reduce the vulnerability of communities by assisting them to plan, and prepare for droughts. iv) Small grains are more drought resistant than maize which often fails completely in the absence of sufficient rain. Encouraging the cultivation of small grains, should be accompanied by promotional policies that support the growing of these small grains. v) The Government of Zimbabwe has yet to produce an integrated climate change policy and legal framework specifically to address issues of climate change mitigation and adaptation. What coping with drought and climate change stakeholders need to do is, firstly, to engage and support government to formulate and adopt workable policies on climate change. Second, there is need to scale-up ongoing activities by NGOs and CBOs aimed at mitigating and adapting to climate change. vi) In reducing drought risks, it is important to identify and understand which aspects of people’s livelihoods are vulnerable to particular hazards as well as the nature of that vulnerability. 62 vii) Socio-economic factors such as land degradation, climate change/variability, policies and HIV and AIDS, need to be mainstreamed in drought risk reduction interventions since they have been found to exacerbate the impacts of drought and negatively impacted on drought risk reduction initiatives. viii) The RDCs, the Ministry of Local Government and those responsible for implementing the EMA should urgently attend to, and prioritize the establishment and training of the RDC environmental committees. ix) There are numerous fora in Zimbabwe on climate change and many organizations claim to be climate change experts. NGOs should engage the Climate Change Office in the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Management so that climate change issues, messages, and strategies are shared with CBOs, and communities are adequately informed of options and opportunities for climate change adaptation and mitigation. BIBLIOGRAPHY CAMPFIRE Association (2005) Annual Report, CAMPFIRE Association, Harare CAMPFIRE Association (2008) First Report of the Zimbabwe National Community-Based Natural Resources Management, CAMPFIRE Association, Harare Chilld, G.F.T. (1995) Wildlife and People: The Zimbabwe Success. Wisdom Foundation, New York. D. Mark Smith: Just One Planet- Poverty, Justice and Climate Change, Practical Action Publishing, 2006. GoZ/UNDP/GEF. CwDCC Project Document GoZ/UNDP/GEF (2010) Coping with Drought – Lessons and experiences of coping with drought in Zimbabwe Final Report. Harare. GoZ/UNDP/GEF. CwDCC Project Annual Report: 2010-2011 GoZ/UNDP/GEF. Coping with Drought and Climate Change, The Video (27 mins) GoZ/UNDP/GEF. Coping with Drought and Climate Change News, The CwDCC Project Newsletter, Vol 1, No 1, Jan-April 2011 GoZ/UNDP/GEF (2012) Terminal Evaluation Report, Harare GoZ/UNDP/GEF Climate variability and change in Zimbabwe: A Factsheet. Harare 63 GoZ/UNDP/GEF. Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project: A Factsheet. Harare IIED Climate Change Working Paper Number 3, December 2012. UK. Intermediate Technology Development Group (1997) Chivi Food Security Project: A Process Approach. Intermediate Technology, UK. Masendeke, A (2004) SARD Initiative Retrospective Study – Chivi Food Security Project, Masvingo, Zimbabwe, Intermediate Technology Development Group (ITDG), Zimbabwe Maveneke, T. N (1998). CAMPFIRE: a Developmental and Environmental Initiative at Local Level, A Paper presented at the Masvingo Workshop on Co-ordinating Environmental and Development Activities at District Level, Flamboyant Hotel,April20-21,1998. Mazambani,D et al (2010), Community-Based Natural Resource Management Stocktaking Assessment(Zimbabwe Profile), United States Agency for International Development/DAI/WWF Munjoma, L, A: Voices from the Climate Change Frontiers – Can anyone hear us? GOz/UNDP/GEF Murwira, K et al (2000). Beating Hunger- The Chivi Experience: A Community-Based Approach to Food Security in Zimbabwe. Intermediate Technology Publications, UK. Mutekwa V,et al: The Adoption of Rainwater Harvesting Technologies in Zimbabwe, The Case of Chivi Ward in Masvingo,Departmmnet of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Zimbabwe Ndlovu, S (2010), Coping with Drought – Research findings from Bulilima and Mangwe Districts, Matabeleland South, Zimbabwe. Practical Action Southern Africa, Harare. Practical Action Southern Africa: The Livelihoods Centred Approach to Disaster Risk Reduction – Lessons from Matabeleland South, Zimbabwe. SARDC and HBS, 2010. Responding to Climate Change Impacts: Adaptation and mitigation strategies as practiced in the Zambezi River Basin, SARDC and HBS, Harare and Cape Town. Unganai, L (2011). Impacts of climate change on agriculture: a case study documentation. GoZ/UNDP/GEF.Harare. Unganai, L (2012). Coping with Drought in Livestock Production: A Farmer’s Handbook. GoZ/UNDP/GEF.Harare. 64 ANNEX 1 Terms of Reference Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project Terms of Reference To prepare a summary report on project achievements I. Background The Coping with Drought and Climate Change project is a UNDP/GEF supported initiative being implemented through the Environmental Management Agency to assist smallholder farmers in Chiredzi District cope with the impacts of drought and build adaptive capacity to deal with future climate change over the period 2008-2012. One of the project’s components is to support and enhance the outcomes of the project by promoting replication of best practices beyond the project site. Documentation and dissemination of success stories is one of the project’s mechanism used to circulate and promote awareness and understanding of the project outcomes among different stakeholder groups including government, civil society, private sector and donors. The project terminal evaluation report recommended that a summary report that describes the results of the “Chiredzi Climate Change Adaptation” model be prepared to help further raise the profile of the project with government and donors. Rationale for summary project results report The purpose of the summary report of the key results of the project is to raise the profile of climate change adaptation and the project in particular with government and donors. It is envisaged that such a report should contribute towards mainstreaming some of the elements of the “Chiredzi Climate Change Adaptation” model in development programming. Purpose The purpose of the assignment is to prepare a comprehensive report summarizing the results and achievements of the UNDP/GEF supported project “Coping with Drought and Climate Change” in reducing the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to impacts of drought and future climate change in Chiredzi District, lessons learnt and recommendations for the future of adaptation in Chiredzi District. The report is intended to raise the profile of the project and climate change adaptation among government ministries, donors, civil society and private sector as recommended in the project’s terminal evaluation report. 65 II. Duties and Responsibilities The consultant will carry out the consultancy activities as set out in the following sections so as to enable him or her to complete communication products that effectively raise the profile of the project’s achievements as outlined in the Terminal Evaluation Report, beneficiary testimonies and reports of the project management unit. The knowledge and informational products will be aimed at raising the profile of climate change adaptation and the project with government, civil society, private sector and donors as defined in the terminal evaluation report. Specific tasks will include: Undertake a desk review of available project reports, information to prepare and agree on the proposed contents and structure of the report. Undertake field visit to selected pilot sites to capture compelling field stories highlighting project success stories Collect, analyze and present any available quantitative data to demonstrate project impact Prepare draft report and submit for comments Address all received comments in the final report. Submit the final report for acceptance Prepare a PowerPoint presentation and present the report (upon UNDP and/or EMA request) Summary of key functions The Consultant will be required to: Conceptualize; compile relevant data and information, and write-up a concise summary report of project achievements in liaison with the Project Manager. Prepare a Gantt chart timetabling work III. Expected results (or deliverables) The maximum period of the contract will be twenty (20) working days. The key deliverable expected from this work is a comprehensive summary report that should, at least, include the following contents: Brief description of the Coping with Drought and climate change project Context and purpose of the report Overview of Chiredzi district, including livelihoods profile, climate and other socioeconomic challenges, and opportunities. Main barriers to adaptation Achievements of the Coping with Drought project to reduce vulnerability to drought and build adaptive capacity among Chiredzi District smallholder farmers Factors enabling success Presentation of the adaptation model Possible refinements to the adaptation model 66 Lessons learnt from the UNDP/GEF project in Chiredzi District Conclusion and recommendations for future climate change adaptation in Chiredzi District Annexes: TOR, itinerary, field visits, people interviewed, documents reviewed, etc. and references. Total volume of publications without annexes should not exceed 50 pages of a text. IV. Required Skills and Experience Education: University degree and minimum 5 years of experience in development, climate change adaptation, agriculture and food security; Experience: Proven experience with similar work; Knowledge of UNDP/GEF climate change adaptation project development and evaluation. Language Requirements: Proven excellent English writing skills: potential candidates must submit a list of publications and at least one example of published report/articles on the relevant subject. How to apply Qualified candidates are requested to submit a cover letter, brief proposal and CV to the Project Manager, Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project, Environmental Management Agency, Block 1, Makombe Complex, Corner Harare Street/Herbert Chitepo Avenue on email: [email protected] not later than 9 November 2012. Please indicate your ability, availability and daily rate to undertake the terms of reference above. 67 Annex 2 Documentation Inception Report Coping with Drought and Climate Change Project Summary Report on project achievements: Inception Report Compiled by Johnson Siamachira: Development Communications Specialist Date: 27 November 2012 Introduction and Background The summary report will present results of a Coping with Drought and Climate Change profiling exercise which would be conducted under the facilitation of the UNDP/GEF supported initiative being implemented through the Environmental Management Agency to assist smallholder farmers in Chiredzi district cope with the impacts of drought and build capacity to deal with future climate change over the period 2008-2012. The objective of this documentation is to assist the CwDCC Project to take stock of the progress and impacts that the project has made, while concomitantly catalyzing a national level dialogue on the identification and prioritization of opportunities and challenges currently confronting similar projects nationally. The resulting profile will be a snapshot in time providing: A summarized description of the Coping with Drought and climate change project (including context and purpose of the report). The current scale of the CwDCC. effort, quantified to the extent feasible CwDCC's impacts captured to the extent possible Lessons learned; and experiences gained The challenges and barriers to further advancement of CwDCC,identified and prioritized Conclusion and recommendations for future climate change adaptation in Chiredzi district. The documentation exercise is, therefore, not an evaluation nor is it a fault-finding mission. It is designed to create an opportunity for CwD. and climate change practitioners to obtain a synthesis of the CwD and climate change activities in Chiredzi and to reflect on how these activities can be better coordinated to enhance impact and networking. The documentation exercise will provide a foundation for coordinating a comprehensive baseline survey which can furnish direction for scaling up the CwD project activities. Main information sources Information would be collected from scholarly articles and other published literature, workshop reports, annual reports, and technical and evaluation reports. In addition to reviewing CwD and climate change(cc) literature and reports, selected individuals from other institutions will be interviewed: 68 Interviews with two Shangani elders(male and female) presenting a scenario of before and after the project interventions, and historical trends, Natural resources management issues on Non-timber Forest Products(NTFP) use, Two Agritex Officials, Two Irrigation Management Committee representatives(e.g Chilonga Irrigation Scheme), Veterinary officers and smallholder farmers on coping strategies for livestock, Generate and produce three Best Practice case examples Climate Early Warning Systems Experts (one in Chiredzi, one in Masvingo, one in Harare). The Chiredzi Rural District Council CEO The Chiredzi RDC Chairman, EMA Officials (Chiredzi and Masvingo) Three beneficiary farmers testifying on the project. The UNDP/GEF project should also make available many project-specific reports and facilitate a trip to selected project sites in Chiredzi. The field trip should come up with human interest stories on coping with drought and climate change adaptation There should also be a comprehensive collection and analysis of fieldbased data from the project and the local authority. The proposed PowerPoint presentation should also present useful information for documentation of project lessons and impacts, and recommendation for the future. It will be critical to contextualize the methodology within the approach of the entire project documentation: resources for the profiling should be made readily available; there should be three days of field visit and the snapshot exercise should be viewed as an initial attempt at assessing CwD and climate change and providing baseline, district level information. The profile, therefore, should provide a basis for future periodic updates. Profiling/Documentation Methodology The documentation of the profile would be pre-determined by the approach agreed upon by the facilitating and funding agency. The key aspects of the approach, which guided the terms of reference of the consultant, and proposed deliverables, are as follows: 69 Activities Deliverables Review terms of reference with Project Manager Agreement on documentation work Collect key CwD and climate change documents,reports,and digital images with assistance from CwD and cc Project Manager Relevant literature is assembled 26-November – 3 December 2012 Undertake desktop study of key CwD and cc documents and fill in Profile information Draft desktop study report inclusive of bibliography 4 -9 December 2012 Interviews with selected stakeholders to gather additional information on CwD and cc project and the challenges and barriers the project is facing Dates focus of 1. Interview guidelines responses ready and 2. List of interviewees,title and institution 23 November 2012 10-13 December 2012 Field visit to Chiredzi Document stories in the field. Stories ready. 13-15 December 2012 Prepare for, and facilitate a PowerPoint presentation to present findings in the First Draft Profile and to identify and prioritize CwD and cc challenges and barriers via this Working Group Inputs from PMU/Stakeholders 20 December 2012 Compile report, inclusive of recommendations into First Draft and Second draft for review by PMU Members Second draft of CwD and cc Profile 24 December 2012 Prepare Final Draft incorporating inputs from CwD PMU,and submit to UNDP/GEF Final CwD and climate change adaptation Profile 31 December 2012. Annex 3 Monthly rainfall during the 2010-11 cropping season in WARD 11 Chiredzi district, Zimbabwe 70 Annex 4 71 Rainfall Trends: Zimbabwe Data Analysis Method The monthly data was combined into seasonal totals, low-sun seasonal totals (OND) and high-sun seasonal totals (JFM). The series was as far back as 1901 up to 2010. The combination into seasonal totals was done to remove short-term monthly variability in rainfall whereas seasonal totals do give a general overview of the rainfall trends. In this analysis, normal rainfall totals used were the calculated mean rainfall total over the 30 year-period 1961-990 as recommended by the World Meteorological Organization. To isolate long-term trends a common smoothing method using a simple exponential smoothing and a non-parametric regression modelling (LOWESS) available in XLSTAT software was used. The trend was then estimated using non-parametric Mann Kendall Trend Test. Although there are advantages and disadvantages of using each of these methods, the results obtained provide a good overall indication of the underlying trends in the rainfall data for Zimbabwe. Agglomerative hierarchical clustering technique (Ward’s method) was used to divide the standardized rainfall totals for each year into distinct clusters to compare the results with those obtained using trend analysis. Results Seasonal Total s The seasonal rainfall total (October to March) showed no major variability from year to year, with the driest having 321 mm in 1991/92 and wettest season having 1120 mm in 1924/25 which is almost 3 times mores, and happened over half a century earlier. Although the rainfall distribution was almost normally distributed, with no marked difference between mean rainfall total of 634.6mm (SD 164.8mm) and the median rainfall total of 636.5mm (IQR 516.2 -737.8) (see Table 1). Analysis of the percentage departure from the normal indicated that 20% of the years had a rainfall total which was above 25% of normal and 14% of the years had rainfall total which was over 25% below the normal (see Fig 1) Comparison of the low-sun seasonal total (OND) and high-sun seasonal total (JFM) showed that most of the seasonal rainfall was received during the high-sun season and the difference was found to be significantly different (p <0.001) using both parametric and non-parametric tests. The mean for the low-sun seasonal rainfall total was 249.9mm (SD 74.1mm) whilst for the high sun it was 384.8mm(SD 132.1mm) (see Table 1). Although the number of years where the rainfall was above or below 25% of the normal for the low-sun season was not very 72 different from the seasonal total, a marked difference was noted for the high-sun season rainfall whereby 35% of the years had rainfall total above 25% of normal. Trends The smoothed series using Simple Exponential Method and Non-parametric Regression Modelling (LOWESS) as shown in Fig. 2 and Fig 3 showed a gradual declining trend in seasonal rainfall total (October-March) and the declining trend was found to be statistically significant (p<0.001) using the Mann Kendall Trend Test for both smoothing methods (τ = -0.3 and -0.5 respectively) (see Table 2) The smoothed series using Simple Exponential Method and Non-parametric Regression (LOWESS) as shown in Fig. 2 and Fig 3 maintained a significant gradual declining trend (p<0.001, τ =-0.4 and 0.7) during the high-sun season . However for the low-sun season no significant trend was observed using the Exponential smoothing although the LOWESS method showed a significant upward trend (see Table 2). Clustering The results of clustering divided the seasonal rainfall data into three clusters on the dendrogram. Cluster 1 included 30.9% of the years, Cluster 2 included 25.5% and Cluster 3 43.6%. The centroid year for each cluster was 1920, 1953 and 1982 respectively. Comparison of the clusters showed that they were significantly different (p<0.001) using Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric test and also exhibited the declining trend in the seasonal rainfall total. Figure 4 shows the distinction in the clusters as we move across the years. During the Cluster 1 period (1901 to 1940) rainfall variability from normal was between -40% to 40% of normal, for Cluster 2 (1941-1980) it was between 7% to 60% and for Cluster 3 (1980-2010) its between -46% to 40%. However, there was overlap or time lag for some observation years. Discriminant analysis of the clusters confirmed that the rainfall variability for Cluster 1 was similar to Cluster 1 as shown in Figure 5. Similar analysis for OND and JFM showed a corresponding pattern although not so quite distinct as that for the seasonal rainfall total. Table 1: Baseline Characteristics Period from 1901 to 2010 Seasonal Rainfall Total Mean Median Minimum Maximum 634.6mm 636.7mm 321.8mm 1120mm 73 (October-March) (SD 164.8) (IQR 516.2 – 737.8) (1991/92) (1924/25) Low-sun Rainfall Total 249.9mm 246.4mm 102.2mm 462.1mm (October-December) (SD 74.1) (IQR 203.9 – 286.9) (1935) (2007) High-sun Rainfall Total 384.8mm 377.3 109.4mm 706.2mm (SD 132.1) (IQR 280.1-484.5) (2001) (1924) (January-March) Table 2: Trend Test Simple Exponential Smoothing Period (1901-2010) Seasonal Rainfall Total Nonparametric regression (LOWESS) Tau (τ) P-value Tau (τ) P-value -0.323 <0.0001 -0.546 <0.0001 -0.114 0.077 0.391 <0.0001 -0.370 <0.0001 -0.666 <0.0001 (October-March) Low-sun Rainfall Total (October-December) High-sun Rainfall Total (January-March) Figure 1 Rainfall Percent Departure From Normal 74 Figure 2 Smoothed Seasonal Rainfall (Non-Parametric Regression – LOWESS) Figure 3 Smoothed Seasonal Rainfall (Simple Exponential) 75 Figure 4 The Cluster Allocation of the Rainfall Total for each Year 76 Figure 5 Discriminant Analysis of the Clusters from \ to Classification/Misclassification Cluster Cluster Cluster 1 2 3 Total % correct 77 Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Total 0 0 0 0 6 19 7 32 28 9 41 78 34 28 48 110 0.00% 67.86% 85.42% 54.55% 78 Buffalo Range Although the annual rainfall shows upward trend after smoothing, it was not statistically significant. OND and JFM did not show any particular pattern after smoothing using both methods. Assessment of clustering also showed no plausible result as there was too much overlap between the clusters. The most likely explanation for this could be because the period is too short to pick out any trend. 79 Annex 5 Coordinates for Chiredzi Met Stations Station Chilonga Irrigation scheme Station GPS position S 21 deg 14' E 31 deg 38' Tamuwanyika Garden S 21 deg 15' E 31 deg 35' Mhlanguleni High S 21 deg 32' E 31 deg 29' Machindu Primary School S 21 deg 28' E 31 deg 35' Chikombedzi Vet Office S21 deg 40' E 31 deg 19' Mupakati Agr. Offices S 21 deg 15' E 31 deg 45' Agritex Office S21 deg 10' E31 deg 35' Boli Primary School S21 deg 30' E31 deg 30' 80 81