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GC33A-1055
Introduction: The Impact of Climate
Change on Respiratory Health
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The Impact of Climate Change on Air Quality &
Respiratory Disease: Maryland/DC Metropolitan
Area
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The Cost ($) of Asthma due to Increased Ozone Emissions
Ground level ozone forms smog and becomes harmful to humans by
exacerbating respiratory conditions, primarily asthma (Knowlton et al.
2004).
(1)
As climate change progresses, increased ozone concentrations
emerge as a major public health concern (Gardiner et al. 2011).
Increasing ground level ozone concentrations have been directly
correlated with rising temperatures (Patz et al. 2005).
Those with existing respiratory conditions, children and the elderly, and
those who spend a significant amount of time outdoors are the most
sensitive to ground level ozone pollution (Schlink et al. 2006).
Data & Assumptions
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Alpana Kaushiva ([email protected]), Shadrian Strong, Steven Babin, & Larry Paxton
The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD, United States
In their 2011 “State of the Air” report, the American Lung Association
rated the Washington/Baltimore/Northern Virginia region as one of the
25 most ozone polluted regions nationwide3. This is the motivating
factor for this work.
Acute and chronic asthma prevalence data for adults and children in
MD, DC, and VA was obtained from the CDC’s Behavioral Risk Factor
Surveillance System.
• Acute: defined as an affirmative response to the question “Have
you ever been told by a doctor {nurse or other health professional}
that you have asthma?”
• Chronic: defined as an affirmative response to that question
followed by an affirmative response to the subsequent question “Do
you still have asthma?”2
Ozone concentrations in parts per billion (ppb) were collected from the
EPA’s Air Explorer tool. Query concentrations from the Air Quality
System (AQS), EPA's repository of ambient air quality data, were
recorded for ozone for each county in MD and VA, and DC, and
averaged yearly from 2000-2010 to come up with a regional average.4
(2)
MD: Cost
Year
PPB
(billion $ 2008)
% Increase
in Acute
Asthma
Year
DC: Cost
(billion $ 2008)
PPB
% Increase
in Acute
Asthma
2015
0.2
52.3
--
2015
0.04
48.3
--
2020
0.3
54.7
0.9
2020
0.07
54.6
2
2035
0.8
61.9
2.7
2035
0.2
73.5
6.2
2050
1.3
69.1
2.7
2050
0.3
92.4
6.1
2100
2.9
93.1
9
2100
0.7
155.4
20.5
Figure
4.
Comparison
of
moderate, unhealthy for sensitive,
and unhealthy ozone air quality
days in Maryland, DC, and
Virginia for 2000, 2005, and 2010.
(3)
Year
VA: Cost
PPB
(billion $ 2008)
% Increase
in Acute
Asthma
2015
0.1
49.3
--
2020
0.2
50.5
1.2
2035
0.5
54.1
3.6
2050
0.9
57.7
3.6
2100
1.9
69.7
12
Tables 1, 2, 3
2010 ozone concentration levels for MD, DC, and VA
(ppb) were 49.9, 42, & 48.1, respectively. Information
on acute prevalence was collected from the CDC’s
Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System database.
Cost was determined using the values of health care
costs associated with climate penalty provided in the
recent Union of Concerned Scientists Report.1
2020 (low)
2020
(high)
2050 (low)
2050 (high)
+1 ppb
+2 ppb
+2 ppb
+7 ppb
Occurrence of Acute Symptoms
1.4 M
2.8 M
3.4 M
11.8 M
ER Visits
600
1200
1480
5190
Senior Admission
1840
3680
6850
23940
Infant Admission
710
1420
1660
5680
Lost School Days
0.47 M
0.94 M
1.8 M
4.1 M
Premature Death
260
510
750
2610
Health Impacts
Figure 5. (Non-cumulative effects) Obtained from a recent Union of
Concerned Scientist’s report, this table includes data on various health
impacts from rising ozone levels for low and high emission scenarios in
2020.
Ozone Concentration & Asthma Prevalence in the DC-metro Region
Conclusions
Costs of asthma due to increased ozone emissions was determined
by calculating an increase in ppb of ozone using collected data and
applying a cost per ppb increase for each region as reported by the
Union of Concerned Scientists in 2008 dollars.
Bottom line: We find that the cost of asthma in the near future has
~doubled relative to the costs predicted by the 2008 Union of Concerned
Scientist’s report. While we can replicate their results using 2008 ozone
statistics, we find that the inclusion of 2 additional years (2009, 2010)
results in a significant increase in associated cost.
Child Asthma Prevalence
The impact of ozone on asthma appears to be a nonlinear trend, such that
the addition of two additional years worth of data from the initial study
showed a significant rise in resulting cost.
A
A
Future Directions
C
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We have been awarded a grant from SDI-Innovations in Healthcare
Analytics, an organization that provides healthcare data. This grant will
enable us to examine asthma data on hospital admissions and doctor
office visits in EPA Region 3 in order to gain a better understanding of
asthma prevalence and impacts of increasing air pollution.
•
We aim to further analyze the problem of rising asthma prevalence and
increasing ozone concentration as well as other climate change and public
health issues. We are in contact with Asthmapolis, which has introduced
tools to track asthma, and we are in the process of completing grants for
other possible collaborations.
Acknowledgements
B
Figure 2a,b. Comparing chronic vs. acute asthma
prevalence in children in MD and VA from 2003 to 2009.
Figure 1a, b, c Comparison of trends in
ozone concentration vs. acute asthma
prevalence in MD, VA, and DC, from 20002010. Average daily maximum ozone
concentration values for 2009 are omitted
because they are significant outliers.
D
B
This work has been sponsored under the Global Assimilation of Information
for Action (GAIA, http://gaia.jhuapl.edu) initiative at The Johns Hopkins
University, connecting decision-makers with the research community. See
posters/talks:
1.
Figure 1d. Comparing chronic vs. acute
asthma prevalence in adults in MD, DC,
and VA from 2000-2010.
2.
3.
L. Paxton, PA31A-06. GAIA - a generalizable, extensible structure for integrating games, models and
social networking to support decision makers
S. Strong, IN32B-12. Visualizing the Impact of Climate Change with GAIA
L. Paxton, H52B-08. GAIA - A New Approach To Decision Making on Climate Disruption Issues
References
1
2
3
4
Perera, Elizabeth, and Todd Sanford. Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening
Ozone Pollution. Rep. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2011. Print.
"CDC - Asthma - Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)." Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention. Web. 25 Nov. 2011. <http://www.cdc.gov/asthma/brfss/default.htm>.
Nolen, Janice E. State of the Air 2011. Rep. Washington, D.C.: American Lung Association, 2011. Print.
"Query Concentrations | AirExplorer | US EPA." US Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 25 Nov. 2011.
<http://www.epa.gov/cgi-bin/htmSQL/mxplorer/query_daily.hsql?poll=42101>.