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Tools and Information: what’s already out there, and what more do we need? Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Maps of Observed Change www.wicci.wisc.edu Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Climate Analog Mapper http://www.wicci.wisc.edu/climate-map.php Climate Change Resource Center • Topic pages – Urban Forests – Water Resources – Silviculture – Wildlife – Forest Carbon – Grasslands – Wildland fire • Tools www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc Climate Change Tree Atlas 2070-2100 Low Changes in Suitable Habitat (Sugar Maple) Legend Importance all_spp_current Value fia_802 Current Low 1.000000 1.000001 - 4.000000 4.000001 - 6.000000 6.000001 - 9.000000 9.000001 - 11.000000 2070-2100 High 11.000001 - 14.000000 High 14.000001 - 23.000000 www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/ Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service) NIACS Vulnerability Assessment • Examine a range of future climates • Do not make recommendations • Sources of information: • Models • Published research • Local managers and experts Download: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/46393 Climate Change Projections for Individual Tree Species PCM B1 Scenario (Less Change) Landscape: Northern Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan Generally expected to decrease Substantial Declines: Black spruce Eastern redbud* Mountain maple* Smaller declines: Balsam fir Paper birch Quaking aspen Rock elm* White spruce Wild plum* *Species only modeled by the Tree Atlas (DISTRIB) Note: model results only Little Change Bigtooth aspen Chokecherry* Eastern hophornbeam* Eastern white pine Jack pine Northern red oak Northern white-cedar Pin cherry* Red maple Red pine Striped maple* Sugar maple Swamp white oak* Tamarack* Yellow birch Generally expected to increase Substantial Increases: American beech Bitternut hickory Black ash Black locust* Black oak Black walnut* Black willow* Eastern cottonwood* Hackberry* Red mulberry* River birch+ Shagbark hickory* Silver maple* Slippery elm* New Suitable Habitat (Tree Atlas) Chinkapin oak* Eastern redcedar* Flowering dogwood* Gray birch* Honeylocust* Mockernut hickory* Ohio buckeye* Osage-orange* Pignut hickory* Pin oak* Post oak* Sassafras* Scarlet oak* Shingle oak* Sweet birch* Sycamore* Yellow-poplar* Not sure (Disagreement among models) (Atlas/LANDIS): American basswood (0/++) Balsam poplar (--/0) Black cherry (++/0) Green ash (-/+) Northern pin oak (0/++) Smaller Increases: American elm* American hornbeam* Boxelder* Bur oak Butternut* Eastern hemlock White ash White oak Source: Janowiak, M.K.; et al. 2014 (In press). Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. www.forestadaptation.org. Climate Change Projections for Individual Tree Species GFDL A1FI Scenario (Greater Change) Landscape: Northern Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan Generally expected to decrease Substantial Declines: Balsam fir Black spruce Butternut* Chokecherry* Mountain maple* Paper birch Pin cherry* Quaking aspen White spruce Yellow birch Smaller declines: Black ash Eastern white pine Jack pine Northern white-cedar Striped maple* Sugar maple Tamarack* *Species only modeled by the Tree Atlas (DISTRIB) Note: model results only Little Change Green ash Northern red oak Red pine Generally expected to increase Substantial Increases: American elm* American hornbeam* Bitternut hickory Black locust* Black oak Black walnut* Black willow* Boxelder* Eastern cottonwood* Eastern redbud* Hackberry* Red mulberry* River birch* Shagbark hickory* Silver maple* Slippery elm* White oak Wild plum* Smaller Increases: American basswood American beech Black cherry Bur oak Eastern hophornbeam* Peachleaf willow* Swamp white oak* White ash New Suitable Habitat (Tree Atlas) Black hickory* Blackgum* Blackjack oak* Chestnut oak* Chinkapin oak* Common persimmon* Eastern redcedar* Flowering dogwood* Gray birch* Honeylocust* Mockernut hickory* Northern catalpa* Ohio buckeye* Osage-orange* Pignut hickory* Pin oak* Post oak* Sassafras* Scarlet oak* Shellbark hickory* Shingle oak* Sugarberry* Sweet birch* Sweeygum* Sycamore* Yellow-poplar* Not sure (Disagreement among models) (Atlas/LANDIS): Balsam poplar (0/--) Bigtooth aspen (0/--) Eastern hemlock (0/--) Northern pin oak (0/++) Red maple (-/+) Source: Janowiak, M.K.; et al. 2014 (In press). Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. www.forestadaptation.org. Vulnerability by Forest Type Community Type Potential Impacts Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Upland spruce-fir Negative Moderate-Low High Lowland conifers Negative Moderate-Low High Lowland-riparian hardwoods Moderate-Negative Moderate Moderate-High Aspen-birch Moderate-Negative Moderate-High Moderate-High Red pine Moderate-Negative Moderate-Low Moderate-High Jack pine Moderate-Negative Moderate-High Moderate Northern hardwoods Moderate-Negative Moderate-High Moderate White pine Moderate-Negative High Moderate-Low Oak associations Moderate Moderate-High Moderate- Low Source: Janowiak et al. 2014 DNR Vulnerability Assessment • Same process as NIACS assessment • Includes southern forest communities • Includes northern nonforest communities • Released soon! NED-3 Climate Change Report Report Objective • To provide natural resource managers with information that they can use to better understand and assess the risk of forest stands and properties to climate change, in order to inform their decision making. Prescription Development Identify Goals and Objectives • Involve appropriate stakeholders • Measurable criteria • Collect and analyze data • Modify to fit situation • Specify and implement activities Determine Necessary Conditions Determine Existing Conditions Identify Appropriate Silvicultural System Develop Prescription(s): NED-3 Climate Change Report The NED-3 Climate Change Report utilizes 9 climate-informed metrics (CIM’s) which rely on standard forest inventory data. These climate-informed metrics are a practical way to leverage existing forest inventory data to better understand key climate risks and measure the effectiveness of adaptation actions over time. These include: • Total Stocking • Tree Species Diversity (Richness) • Tree Species Evenness (Richness Distribution) • Large Coarse Woody Debris • Saplings per Acre • Seedlings per Acre Three new metrics provide an assessment of the risk of decline of trees, saplings, and seedlings using data from the Climate Change Tree Atlas: • Climate Risk – Overstory • Climate Risk – Saplings • Climate Risk – Seedlings Questions? 1. What are your informational / tool needs regarding climate change management? a) What would make your life easier? 2. What would help you catch the attention of clients, partners, or peers when incorporating climate change into management? 3. How do you discern between climate change effects and other impacts? 4. What timeframes are most important for your work (e.g. now, +20 yrs., +50 yrs., +100 yrs.? 5. What about “assisted migration”? Is this controversial for your work? Do you already do it?