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HEALTH PROFESSIONALS FOR CLEAN AIR January 20, 2016 Please mute phones while not speaking to minimize background noise. Thank you! 1 AGENDA Panel Discussion: Next Steps for California’s Climate Leadership Martha Guzman-Aceves, Deputy Legislative Secretary Governor’s office Linda Rudolph, MD, MPH, Co-Director Public Health Institute’s Center for Climate Change and Health Abby Young, Climate Protection Manager Bay Area Air Quality Management District Lawrence Cooper, Legislative Director Senator Ricardo Lara 2 Air District Climate Protection Program Update Health Professionals for Clean Air January 20, 2016 Abby Young Manager, Climate Protection Program Climate Protection Resolution Air District Board Resolution 2013-11: • Reduce Bay Area GHG emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 • Develop a Regional Climate Protection Strategy to be included in the Clean Air Plan Update • Develop a work program to guide and document the Air District climate protection work in the near-term - 10-point climate work program adopted April 2014 2 Regional Climate Protection Strategy Strategy contents: • Bay Area GHG inventory & forecast • Consumption-based GHG inventory • Climate change impacts to the Bay Area • Economic sector-based analysis of GHGs • GHG emission reduction measures focusing on the Air District’s added value 5 Bay Area 2015 GHG Emissions 5 Bay Area GHG Projection to 2050 6 Goals and Focus What: How: DEVELOP RULES Efficiency Electrification WORK W/ LOCAL GOVTS PERMITS REGIONAL CLIMATE PROTECTION STRATEGY Decarbonize energy Reduce nonenergy GHGs PLAN & COLLABORATE RESEARCH & SCIENCE GRANTS 4 Initial Proposed GHG Rule-making 9 The Pathway to 2050 Develop Rules Grants •Reduce black carbon Research & Science •Improve methane, BC inventory •Methane monitoring •Consumption-based inventory •Cap & trade backstop •Limit methane •Limit black carbon Work w/ local gov’ts •Improve building efficiency •PACE, other financing •Implement, track local CAPs Permits •Limit GHG via New Source Review Plan & Collaborate •Support strong Plan Bay Area •Expand VMT reduction programs • Urban heat island mitigation 28 Regulation 6, Rule 3 Wood Smoke Reduction Strategy (NO ACTION TODAY) District Incentive Program • $3 Million Program Funding Device Type Allocation • Electric Heat Pump • Natural Gas/ Propane Device • No incentives for wood burning devices Enhanced Funding Allocation • Low-Income Household (full funding) • Exempt Household • High Wood Smoke Impacted Area 11 Abby Young [email protected] 415-749-4754 Regulation 6, Rule 3 Wood Smoke Reduction Strategies Public Education and Outreach Long Term / Short Term Reduction Measures Enforcement Wood Smoke Reduction Strategies Model Ordinance Incentive Program 10 Stationary Sources 8 Transportation 12 Transportation Reduce Demand for Driving Consistent with Plan Bay Area (SCS): - Regional bus and rail service improvements - Safe Routes to School and Transit - Bicycle access, pedestrian facilities - Parking strategies (cash-out, pricing policies, real-time technologies) - Congestion pricing - Indirect Source Review Commuter Benefit Program Transportation Fund for Clean Air grants Freight Movement Grants & incentives to accelerate deployment of fuel efficient trucks, advanced technology drive trains, electric battery and hydrogen fuel cell technology Green Ports incentive program Monitor health risks in local communities 13 Buildings 2015 Bay Area GHG Emissions (S2) Buildings (18 MMT CO2eq) Residential Natural Gas Commercial Natural Gas 21.6% 34.1% Other Commercial/ Residential Fuel Usage Commercial Electricity Residential Electricity 23.8% 17.0% 3.4% 17 Buildings Increase Energy Efficiency Promote model ordinances: - exceeding Title 24 - requiring cool roofs - requiring cool paving in parking lots Challenge private sector to reduce energy use in existing buildings Work with electricity providers to target least efficient buildings Switch to Electricity and Renewable Energy Require new construction to be EV ready Potential rule-making to limit sale of natural gas space and water heaters Support community choice aggregation Facilitate PACE financing by covering transaction costs Explore local carbon fees Work with KyotoUSA to develop solar plans for schools 18 Energy 16 Energy Decarbonize Electricity Production Engage with PG&E, municipal utilities, CCAs to maximize renewable energy (RE) Increase use of biomass in electricity production Support combined heat and power (CHP) Expedite permitting for RE generation, biofuel, & high-efficiency CHP facilities Develop incentive programs to facilitate new technologies, such as energy storage Decrease Electricity Demand Promote state & local energy efficiency (EE) programs to permitted sources Incorporate messaging on EE programs & financing into existing outreach programs Develop messaging to decrease peak electricity demand Work with partners to track electricity use 17 Waste Management 2015 Bay Area GHG Emissions (S2) Waste Management (2 MMT CO2eq) 2.4% Landfills Composting and Other Waste Mgmt. 97.6% 18 Waste Management Reduce and Divert Waste Assist local jurisdictions achieve their zero waste goals Develop model policies to reduce/divert green waste going to landfill Explore rule-making requiring large food retailers to compost food waste Track and participate in state working groups on waste reduction Reduce Emissions from Waste Facilities Review Air District Rule 8-34 to increase standards for landfill gas collection and reduce methane leaks Expand Rule 8-34 to include smaller and/or older landfills 19 Water 2015 Bay Area GHG Emissions (S2) Water (1 MMT CO2eq) Wastewater Treatment Electricity 45.7% 54.3% 20 Water Reduce Water Use Assist local jurisdictions achieve state’s 20% water conservation goal Develop and promote best practices, model ordinances Incorporate water conservation messaging into outreach and education programs Reduce Emissions from POTWs Improve GHG inventory methods for POTWs Collaborate with POTWs on streamlining Air District permitting that may prohibit biogas recovery Work with POTWs, broader water community, PG&E, CPUC to remove barriers to pipeline injection of biogas 21 Short-lived Climate Pollutants 22 Short-lived Climate Pollutants Reduce Black Carbon Further limits on residential wood-burning Provide grants & incentives to reduce PM & BC from heavy-duty vehicles Adopt rule to reduce BC emissions from back-up diesel generators Reduce Fluorinated Gases Continue collaborating with ARB on reducing HFC leaks in refrigeration Work with ARB and/or US EPA to strengthen requirements on mobile air conditioning HFC disposal Track progress in developing and encourage eventual use of HFC substitutes Reduce Methane Implement fixed- and mobile-site methane monitoring system Improve understanding of and inventory methods for methane Control measures addressing landfills, POTWs, animal facilities, oil and gas wells and 23 pipelines 24 Agriculture 25 Agriculture Guidance & Leadership Set interim GHG reduction goal for Bay Area Ag sector Research, track and facilitate applications for Cap & Trade $$ Collect & compile data on the region’s Ag operations to foster partnerships and achieve economies of scale Participate in all state working groups Livestock Emissions Work with dairy farms to explore feasibility & implementation of biogas recovery/anaerobic digester systems Explore rule-making for smaller-sized confined animal facilities Work with dairy farmers to facilitate lower-methane-yielding diets 26 Natural & Working Lands Rangelands Work with the Marin Carbon Project to promote carbon soil sequestration on rangelands Develop local climate action plan guidance and best practices for low carbon soil management Urban Forests Develop model ordinances for tree planting to reduce urban heat islands Explore rule-making limiting non-native vegetation Wetlands Develop local action plan guidance on estimating GHG sequestration associated with wetlands restoration and protection Collaborate with Bay Conservation & Development Commission to protection, restore and enhance local wetlands 27 COP 21 Paris 2015 Outcomes and Future Prospects My thoughts and hopes Larry F Greene Executive Director Sac Metro AQMD COP 15 Copenhage n 2009 Hope for a new agreement for the world COP 17 Durban 2011 The journey to a new agreement COP 15 Copenhagen 2009 Hope for a new agreement for the world Context: The Evolving Climate Regime Paris was the result of a structured four year set of negotiations. - Paris is the latest in the UN’s climate change work, which began in 1992 with the adoption of the Framework Convention - 2009 Copenhagen and 2010 Cancun Agreements established the idea of a bottom-up framework - 2011 the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action called for a new legal instrument to apply from 2020 - 2013 Warsaw called on parties to submit Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) - COP Meetings are multifaceted with much more going on than just the UN delegates meeting. Paris Scale • 150 heads of state • 196 countries at the final Plenary (consensus approval of agreement) • Non-State Actors pledges: 11,000 commitments from 2,250 cities, 150 regions, 2,025 companies, 424 investors, 235 civil society organizations. • International Solar Alliance: 120 countries led by India and France • Compact of Mayors: 360 cities…pledge to deliver over half of potential urban emissions by 2020 • Under 2 MOU The Agreement - Unanimous agreement 195 UN members - Keep upper limit below 2 degrees centigrade, try to keep it below 1.5 degrees - Asked all nations to commit to a national reduction number for pollution (Current commitments will keep temperature rise this century to around 3 degrees centigrade) - Established a process to develop rules on how to measure and track nations efforts - Agreed to continue and increase funding for poorer nations - Agreed that nations would reset their goals every five years The Big Picture 50 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 NOx VOC O3 Design Value (ppb) 8-hour O3 Design Value: SFNA (1990-2014) 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Year Peak Design Value 2008 Ozone NAAQS (75 ppb) TARGET YEARS 2017 – 85 ppb standard 2027 – 75 ppb standard 2030+ 70? ppb standard - PM 2.5 - Black Carbon - NOx PM2.5 Design Value (µg/m3) 24-hour PM2.5 Design Value: SFNA (2002-2014) Implementation of Rules 417 & 421 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year Peak Design Value 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS (35 microgram/m3) Pollution Reduction Public Health Questions? Backup Slides Key Ideas in the Paris Agreement - Legal Character Differentiation Long-Term Goal Mitigation Successive NDC’s Transparency - Implementation/Compliance Finance Adaptation Loss and Damage Next Steps Paris is a hybrid: Bottom-up flexibility to achieve broad participation/Top-down rules for accountability and ambition. What’s in the Paris Agreement A global goal and national targets: • Reaffirm goal of limiting global temperature increase to 2 degrees while urging efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees • Establish binding commitments by all parties to make Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and to pursue domestic measures aimed at achieving them. • Commit all countries to report regularly on their progress and to undergo international review. • Commit all countries to submit new INDCs every five years with a clear expectation that they will represent a progression beyond previous ones Paris Agreement (continued) Finance • Reaffirm the binding obligations of developed countries to support developing countries • For the first time encourage voluntary contributions by developing countries • Extend the goal of mobilizing $100 billion a year in support by 2020 through 2025 with a new higher goal to be set after 2025 • Extend a mechanism to address “loss and damage” resulting from climate change, which explicitly will not “involve or provide a basis for any liability or compensation.” Other • Require parties engaging in international trading to avoid “double counting”. • Call for a new mechanism enabling emission reductions in one country to be counted in another. Some Final Thoughts • This was a big deal. 196 Countries agreed to something…consensus • The agreement moves forward in many key areas • California matters. Not in total emissions but in execution and proof of concept. The state is positioned and widely recognized as a key international leader. • Sub-nationals (states, provinces, cities, counties, regions) matter • Both mitigation and adaptation are important • A notional goal of 1.5 degrees was a surprise and received significant support at COP 21. • It will take 55 countries covering 55% of global emissions to ratify. DISCUSSION: KEY ACTION STEPS FOR HEALTH PROFESSIONALS FOR 2016 • Supporting Strong Air/Climate Policies in 2016 • Defend Federal Clean Air Act • AB 32 Scoping Plan Update • Short Lived Climate Pollutants • Cap and Trade Investments • Zero Emission Vehicle policies • Cleaner Freight • Smart Growth • Educate on Climate/Health Link to Support Local Action • Meet with elected officials • Blog/social media • Climate action resolutions 75 KEY CLEAN AIR GOALS FOR CA 2030 • 50% Black Carbon Short Lived • 40% Methane Climate Pollutants • 40% F-Gases 76 $2 TOBACCO TAX INCREASE IN 2016 77 Launched January, 2015 Follow us on social media #DocsforClimateHealth @californialung 78 32 DOCTORS FOR CLIMATE HEALTH 79 80 DOCTORS FOR CLIMATE HEALTH DIGNITY HEALTH 81 82 DOCTORS FOR CLIMATE HEALTH FRESNO MADERA MEDICAL SOCIETY RESOLUTION – JAN 18, 2016 RESOLVED: The Fresno-Madera Medical Society recognizes that climate change threatens the health and well-being of the patients we serve. Therefore, we: 1) support efforts to educate our patients and the medical community regarding the potential adverse health effects of global climate change. 2) encourage our health care institutions to review and improve their carbon footprint and that of their supply chain, and also encourage them to prepare for climate impacts. 3) support efforts to communicate with our local, state, and national legislators, and request that they take action to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change. 83 ZERO EMISSION VEHICLES = KEY 84 ZERO EMISSION FUTURE = A HEALTHY FUTURE NEW RESEARCH PROJECT ON HEALTH + SOCIETAL BENEFITS OF ZEVS • California ZEV policy targets approximately 15% ZEV sales in 2025 • Policy in place in 9 additional “ZEV States” • ZEV Policy under review in 2016-17 ZEVs (Gov. Brown Exec. Order) 1.5m ZEVs 15% Sales 2050 1m 2025 2020 • California goals: 100% ZEV sales 85 AMBITIOUS BY NECESSARY AIR QUALITY AND CLIMATE GOALS DEMAND ZERO EMISSIONS ZEV States have lined up for strong ZEV push – all but Maine and New Jersey have set strong joint targets 86 2016 STUDY DESIGN MOVING THE ZEV PROGRAM BEYOND 2025 – A ZERO EMISSION FUTURE Scope: All 10 “ZEV States” Preliminary Scenarios • Baseline: ~15% ZEV Program to 2025 • No Policy Scenario • 100% ZEV to 2040-2050 timeframe • Heavy Duty Electrification Study 87 PROJECT DETAILS • Expected Completion • June 2016 • Expected Results – benefits of zero emission vehicles • Avoided health costs, and asthma attacks, heart attacks, hospitalizations, lost work and premature death • Avoided climate costs to society • Avoided oil dependency costs to society • Partners • California and Northeast Lung Association chapters • NESCAUM (Northeast States) • TetraTech consulting 88 RESULTS PRESENTED IN PAST RESEARCH Petroleum’s Health and Societal Premium $19.57 in Damages Caused by the Average Tank of Gasoline Under Prior CA Vehicle Standards The Road to Clean Air, May 2011 89 Road To Clean Air II Annual Health Impacts Avoided by a 100% CA ZEV Fleet • • • • 510 premature deaths avoided 545 ER visits/hospitalizations avoided 10,200 asthma attacks and lower respiratory symptoms avoided 48,200 lost work and school days avoided Road to Clean Air II – A Zero Emission Future January 2012 90 Contacts: Bonnie Holmes-Gen [email protected] Will Barrett [email protected] Jenny Bard [email protected] 91