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Advanced Review The challenges of building cosmopolitan climate expertise: the case of Germany Silke Beck∗ By generating intense public scrutiny of international climate science, the ‘climategate’ controversy has paradoxically underlined the authoritative status accorded to scientific knowledge in policy decision making on climate change. In contrast to the universalizing discourse of international climate science (as presented by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC)), notable differences exist between countries with regard to the degree of public trust in its expertise. Focusing on the German case, this article explores how and why countries vary when it comes to interpreting and validating ‘universally valid’ expertise. It argues that differences in the way climate change are addressed in national research and decision making cannot be explained solely by the quality of scientific knowledge available, because it is the same body of knowledge (produced by the IPCC) that provides the common point of reference. The reception of scientific evidence for climate change by publics and policy makers depends additionally on the ways in which scientific claims are validated and rendered authoritative for public use and on prior criteria of what counts as scientifically valid and policy-relevant knowledge. This article then discusses the implications entailed by these national differences in terms of interpreting expertise on matters of global relevance. It shows why the task of producing policy-relevant knowledge ‘under the public microscope’ requires new forms of interdisciplinary scientific judgment and justification toward wider publics. It reviews recent initiatives set up to respond to ‘climategate’ and discusses the alternatives offered by a wide range of efforts to promote a differentiated, reflexive, and culturally sensitive ‘cosmopolitan’ approach. 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. How to cite this article: WIREs Clim Change 2012, 3:1–17. doi: 10.1002/wcc.151 INTRODUCTION A t first sight, Annex I countries all share major epistemic, technological, and political characteristics which generally reflect their common constitution as market economies and democratic systems. They also have in common the fact that scientists have played and continue to play a crucial and ever increasing role in decision making on climate change.1–3 Countries such as the United States, the UK, and Germany in particular are engaged in considerable efforts to build up climate research programs, and ∗ Correspondence to: [email protected] Department of Environmental Politics, UFZ—Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany Volume 3, January/February 2012 they also make major contributions to the work of the IPCC. However, the countries grouped under the Annex I umbrella differ significantly in the ways scientific expertise provided by the IPCC is received and validated. Even if not openly addressed, notable differences can be seen to underlie recent controversies over IPCC reform, particularly when it comes to negotiating common rules of procedure governing the assessment process. Controversies over the IPCC’s ‘conflict of interest’ policies reveal that not only the policies per se but also the underlying criteria for what counts as valid policy-relevant knowledge have become contested. Symptomatic of these controversies is the German government’s appointment of an IPCC representative from Greenpeace, which appears 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 1 wires.wiley.com/climatechange Advanced Review deeply biased and suspect—if not to say corrupt—to representatives from other nations where there is a strict insistence on separating science and politics.4–7 This article reviews the challenges to science and decision making in a globalizing world (section Challenges for Science Policy in a Globalizing World). Section Precaution and ‘Catastrophism’—The German Case reconstructs the German response to climate change and illustrates how public trust in scientific expertise forms a major foundation of climate policies. This article concludes with reflections on what changes are needed if trust in scientific expertise is to be maintained among various global publics and robust knowledge is to be available for processes of decision making on climate change (section Challenges for Building Cosmopolitan Expertise). CHALLENGES FOR SCIENCE POLICY IN A GLOBALIZING WORLD ‘One-Size-Fits-All’? The IPCC has the formal mandate to provide policyrelevant information to decision makers involved in the Conferences of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). Since being set up in 1988, the IPCC has produced four extremely wide-ranging assessment reports. The publication of the latest IPCC report in 2007 (AR4) demonstrates that the scientific evidence for global warming is now overwhelming, even if scientific predictions of future climatic changes remain shrouded in uncertainty. Climate change thus appears to rest on a robust consensus among scientists.8–10 The primary role of the IPCC in politics is not to compel or determine political action, as suggested by the linear model of expertise, but to develop and spread heuristic knowledge about global climate change and to inform policy makers about the general extent and structure of the problem.11 In this respect, the IPCC holds a remarkable degree of definitional power. The IPCC has indeed been instrumental in issuing warnings, setting agendas, and turning climate change from a scientific into a political problem. It has played a key role not only in defining the issues related to climate change and attributing and detecting causes but also in establishing the very terms and framework conditions of negotiation for coping with climate change. The IPCC has thus contributed toward raising awareness and fostering a common understanding of climate change as a single, global and all encompassing risk that requires a united, multilateral solution.12 With its First Assessment Report (AR1), the IPCC became the forum for political negotiations on climate change and established a 2 skeleton agreement for the FCCC. Its second report helped to catalyze the negotiations that finally resulted in the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. In 2007, climate change became a priority political issue in many industrialized countries, and the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded jointly to the IPCC and former US vice president Al Gore for their efforts in consolidating and disseminating greater knowledge about humaninduced climate change. Thus the IPCC has provided impetus and input to international negotiation processes, which may not directly have triggered climate policies but may nonetheless have made decision making more politically relevant. As a result, many countries and organizations have delegated considerable authority to the IPCC to identify, define, and evaluate issues of policy concern.13,14 To maintain the political authority of international climate science in a highly politicized context, the IPCC decided to speak ‘with one voice’ on behalf of the global scientific community and to come up with a single, unitary international authoritative assessment. It conducted one of the most complex and inclusive exercises in international scientific consensus building ever undertaken. This strategy indicates that the formal mandate bestowed upon the IPCC did not, in and of itself, generate among politicians an immediate acceptance of its statements as authoritative. Instead, the IPCC sought to enhance its authority by introducing procedural innovations. Its attempt to restrict the range of knowledge admitted into the policy process represents an effort to control debate in the broader political arena. This is one way of avoiding a repeat of the experience with the issue of nuclear power, when contradictory expert views paralyzed the policy debate. This strategy has not precluded other bodies working on the issue, but it did help to establish the IPCC as a privileged authority and discursive trendsetter to whom all others would henceforth have to refer. Confronted by demands for political relevance and universal representation, the IPCC responded by trying to broaden and deepen the foundations of its knowledge claims both internally and externally. The active and ongoing consultation process launched by the IPCC has done much to iron out differences and to marginalize opposition.13,15 The IPCC not only synthesizes knowledge but also validates the scientific evidence for knowledge claims. In doing so, it has operated in largely uncharted territory and with no shared, prearticulated commitments or rules of procedure. The IPCC thus has to invent its own processes, procedural rules, and governance structures. It also has to make numerous choices in terms of selecting and organizing scientific advice, establishing criteria for 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Volume 3, January/February 2012 WIREs Climate Change The challenges of building cosmopolitan climate expertise the legitimation of scientific evidence and for selecting experts, organizing review procedures, and specifying its own mandate.16 In this way, the IPCC has become a pioneer in the globalization of science policies. This is remarkable insofar as science policy has traditionally been a domain of decision making in which nation states strongly defend their national sovereignty.17–19 The IPCC has also succeeded in becoming the exclusive authority for setting standards for the production and validation of policy-relevant knowledge used in international climate policy. Following the linear model of expertise, it is thus supposed to provide a blueprint for expertise that applies to everyone everywhere. As international organizations, the IPCC and the FCCC are designed to promote transnational convergence and uniformity by expanding the base of shared knowledge about climate change and by setting standards.20 There are constant interactions between Annex I states both at governmental level and at the level of working relationships regarding climate science assessment. This ongoing exchange of ideas, tools for scientific assessment and appraisal, and techniques for improving the scientific basis of decision making suggests that a good deal of mutual learning is already occurring. These trends all point toward a convergence on similar understandings of climate science and similar actions regarding climate policy.21 The Paradoxical Nature of Political Authority Even if the IPCC claims to be neutral and ‘not prescriptive’, its findings are received in a highly politicized political context, where almost every scientific finding can have far-reaching implications for the stakeholders concerned. By characterizing global warming as a major problem, scientific claims may challenge vested interests, disrupt longstanding social relations, and question deeply ingrained lifestyles. As soon as lobby groups from the oil and car industries (mainly in the United States) realized the relevance of IPCC’s findings to their own business strategies, they began to attack the IPCC and to discredit its findings, subsequently dubbed the ‘inconvenient truth’.22,23 One indirect and indeed paradoxical indication of the IPCC’s authority in policy-making circles is the fact that many lobby groups have invested a remarkable amount of resources in attacking and discrediting the IPCC’s findings. The strategy of these ‘merchants of doubt’ appears to be that of undermining the scientific evidence used to inform far-reaching policy to mitigate climate change. The strategy ‘doubt is our product’ led to the politicization of the scientific debate on global Volume 3, January/February 2012 warming. Scientific controversies over the evidence for climate change have thus become a proxy for political battles over whether and how to react to climate change.24 The irony, of course, is that both sides of the climate controversy—climate change advocates and skeptics alike—act as if climate policy will be decided by science alone. Thus challenges to the authority of the IPCC turn out to be part of a struggle to gain power and authority in global climate politics.18 The attacks on the IPCC, paradoxically, have not contributed to a loss of epistemic or political authority but—quite the contrary—to attracting more attention and attributing greater significance to the IPCC reports than the latter would have otherwise enjoyed. The events surrounding ‘climategate’ reveal the paradoxical nature of the authority ascribed to the IPCC in relation to international climate policy. ‘Climategate’ began with the controversial publication of stolen professional correspondence between a small number of leading climate scientists from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, UK. It continued with the discovery of errors and distortions in the supposedly authoritative 2007 IPCC report.25 The content of the stolen emails and the discovery of errors in the IPCC report were immediately taken up by the mass media and led to heated discussions within the virtual community of global publics. What started as a ‘battle over truth’ has thus turned into a ‘war over public opinion’.26 As these events indicate, the IPCC has been faced with growing public scrutiny and demands for public accountability. Since being widely accepted as the most neutral and authoritative source of expertise on climate change, the IPCC has become a victim of its own success and has strayed into the line of fire. Events such as the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC and Al Gore have raised public awareness of climate change and forced policy makers to consider options for responding to it.27 This official seal of recognition has contributed to putting the IPCC onto the world stage. The IPCC has thus become a prime target of critical public and political attention.25 The stolen emails appear to have contributed to a public mood of ‘suspicion’. It has been argued that the publication of these emails shows that some areas of climate science are plagued by intense antagonism, a (politically motivated) ‘witch hunt’, and a combination of groupthink, political advocacy, and alarmism.28 The slow and inadequate responses of the IPCC leadership have arguably served to exacerbate the problems. It attests to the fact that the IPCC has fallen well short of its mandate to function as a credible and legitimate advisory body. The controversial publication of climate scientists’ emails and errors in the IPCC reports fed into larger concerns about the 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 3 wires.wiley.com/climatechange Advanced Review reliability of the IPCC and about the trust placed in it: could politicians and the public still rely on the IPCC to provide a sound assessment of scientific knowledge on climate change and still trust the IPCC’s key messages?29 The media uptake following ‘climategate’ also indicates that the authority of the IPCC was at stake. Thus ‘climategate’ turned out to be not only a question of the technical integrity of science but also one of public confidence: ‘Telling people ‘‘Hey, trust me—I’m an expert’’ is just no longer enough’.5,30 Last but not least, there is a growing gap between the IPCC establishment and the expectations expressed by some blogging scientists and others within the global public sphere. The latter are demanding greater accountability and transparency in climate research and assessment, calling for open and accountable forms of knowledge production rather than the IPCC’s authoritarian and exclusive ones.28 ‘Climategate’ thus reveals the kind of challenges that international expert panels need to address. These include building consensus within the relevant disciplinary communities while at the same time gaining public acceptance for claims that may challenge established social relations and ways of living—and all this in the context of a heightened demand for public accountability. PRECAUTION AND ‘CATASTROPHISM’—THE GERMAN CASE In this section, the focus is on the German perception of the global expertise on climate change as provided by IPCC. The concepts developed in comparative studies of national science and regulatory policies31–34 are taken as a point of departure for reconstructing the German case. The concept of ‘civic epistemology’ offers a promising way of systematically addressing problems of public trust and credibility in a comparative perspective. It refers to publicly accepted and procedurally sanctioned ways of accounting for the epistemic basis of decision making.33 Rather than adhering to an impact or outcome-oriented approach, it follows a process-oriented approach. Thus it takes account of the ways in which scientific knowledge is validated and made authoritative for public use rather than focusing on the content and substance of the science itself. The concept of ‘civic epistemology’ is used here as a heuristic tool for reconstructing the German response to climate change in a systematic way. Two case studies on climate change35–40 are taken as points of reference for exploring whether or not the German response to climate change conforms to the conventional national pattern of civic epistemology. 4 The German ‘Climate Catastrophe’ What is striking in the German case—especially in the light of the U.S. case—is the virtual absence of scientific or political conflict over the reality of man-made climate change itself. In Germany, it was a group of elite scientists who were instrumental in putting global climate change on the national public and political agenda in 1986. A subgroup of the German Physical Society (Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft), the Study Group on Energy, published their ‘Warning of an Impending Climate Catastrophe’. They framed the ‘CO2 problem’ as a ‘climate catastrophe’. Scientists (and nuclear lobby groups) have used climate change to promote nuclear energy as a clean, CO2 -free source of energy and have thus linked it to the question of future energy policy, one of the most polarized controversies in German policy making today. ‘Climate catastrophe’ subsequently became the dominant national way of framing the issue.41 Since the late 1980s there has been a solid national consensus on the climate catastrophe that has remained stable to this day.35–38,40 After the Chernobyl accident of 1986, the German public was particularly sensitive to environmental risks and felt directly vulnerable to them. This risk consciousness—German ‘angst’—can be seen as part of a wider concern about the catastrophic potential of technological risks, perceived as the unintended side effects of scientific progress, and technological ingenuity and resulting in irresponsible actions and unmanageable dangers.37–40 Expert Commission as a Microcosm of German Society One key mechanism for generating expertise as a foundation for national decision making in Germany is the parliamentary inquiry commission (EnqueteKommission). This was the mechanism chosen to translate the IPCC assessment into the national context. The first inquiry commission, appointed in 1987, convened under the heading ‘Preventive Measures to Protect the Earth’s Atmosphere’ (Vorsorge zum Schutz der Erdatmosphäre). In 1991, a second inquiry commission, ‘Protection of the Earth’s Atmosphere’ (Schutz der Erdatmosphäre), succeeded the first one.37 It is important to note that, in the German context, virtually no public debate has ever taken place about the strength of the scientific evidence on climate change. German scientists have thus seldom been subjected to critical scrutiny and have rarely had the status of their knowledge politicized.22,23 In the United States, in contrast, expert deliberation on the scientific evidence for climate change has been open to public scrutiny and has been additionally amplified by 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Volume 3, January/February 2012 WIREs Climate Change The challenges of building cosmopolitan climate expertise immense media attention, thereby fueling the climate change debate even further.11,42–46 The remarkable German confidence in climate science is due largely to the efforts of the first inquiry commission. One of its major achievements was to maintain the status of scientific expertise as the primary resource for legitimating regulatory decisions. The inquiry commission was trusted because the way in which it worked conforms to the key features of Germany’s national civic epistemology: • The inquiry commission is a hybrid organization that enables the joint participation of legislators and technical experts and combines scientific expertise and political representation within a single advisory body. Experts are selected by a political body, the Bundestag, rather than through scientific bodies, as in the United States. This appointment practice fits with the national style of public accountability which is a key criterion of the national civic epistemology. Commissions often include experts with broader and less specialized expertise, such as representatives of associations (Verbände), industry, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The aim of this strategy is to neutralize opposition and to enhance the political effectiveness of the commission’s recommendations. The assessment process used by the second commission, however, demonstrates the pitfalls of this setting. The conservative coalition government, which had a parliamentary majority at the time, used its power to select experts to ensure it had control over the commission. As soon as associations, politicians and lobby groups realized the political influence of the first commission, they tried to influence it and use it as a forum for political bargaining. The conservative coalition began to recruit experts from industry and interest groups such as the industrial federation, the chemical industry, the automobile industry, and the nuclear industry. • Trustworthiness is traditionally a product of institutional affiliation in Germany.33 Both commissions embodied a broad and inclusive form of institutional representation. The participants represented a wide range of institutions, from nuclear power companies to Greenpeace. A commission’s expertise is expected to be binding, because the group as a whole is capable of speaking for the wider community it represents. Commissions are thus thought to be a microcosm of the society that will be affected by its policy advice. The first commission initiated a Volume 3, January/February 2012 research program that integrated a large number of German research institutes (including the skeptical ones) into the assessment process and forced mainstream German science to provide a consensual assessment of the state of knowledge. Both the breadth and inclusiveness of the research program and the consensual style of formulating outcomes resonate with the German style of expertise which are also a feature of the national ‘civic epistemology’.33,47,48 Knowledge produced in such settings is objective not only by virtue of the participants’ individual qualifications but, even more so, as a result of incorporating all the relevant viewpoints into the outcomes produced. As its title indicates, the first commission adopted in 1987 the precautionary principle to inform the national response to climate change. The choice of the precautionary principle as opposed to riskbased standards of regulation signals a change from earlier practice. Whereas in the early years, German scientists had followed the same pattern as in the United States—calling for ‘sound’ science and pursuing a ‘wait-and-see’ approach—they later turned the issue into a political problem that had to be made the subject of regulatory policy. This choice has had enormous implications for the evaluation of the scientific basis of public policy.49 It is now institutional support rather than ‘sound science’ that counts as the ultimate foundation of political legitimacy in Germany. The first inquiry commission was instrumental in orchestrating that kind of support. Political Closure The first commission was instrumental not only in forcing scientific and political closure but also in accelerating decision making by encouraging close communication between the Bundestag and the ministries, especially the Federal Ministry for the Environment, headed by Klaus Toepfer. Its findings were translated into parliamentary decision making and set the stage for a short phase of lively political activity in the early 1990s which resulted in the declaration of ambitious national reduction targets in many European countries. Even before the commission published its own policy recommendations in June 1990, including the national reduction target for CO2 emissions, the German government adopted the precautionary principle as the overarching national response to climate change and finalized the target of a 25% reduction in CO2 emissions nationwide.50 In this sense, the work of the first commission was highly successful in terms of political effectiveness. Almost every German government, regardless of its composition, has declared 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 5 wires.wiley.com/climatechange Advanced Review a high-level commitment to far-reaching targets for climate mitigation and has adopted a forerunner role in international negotiations. Not surprisingly, German debates—after the enactment of far-reaching regulations—have remained resolutely focused on political rather than factual issues. In the international arena, in contrast, the politics of climate change are represented as proxy debates on the scientific evidence of global warming. Resistance and public controversies arise in Germany when it comes to implementing far-reaching mitigation targets rather than facing the ‘reality’ of human-induced climate change itself. While the existence of global warming and the urgent need for mitigation policies has never been openly contested in Germany, almost every German government has faced problems in enforcing implementation and compliance beyond ‘end-of-pipe’ measures.51 Both inquiry commissions—in 1987 and in 1991—had to resolve controversies that reflected conflicts over the distribution of power and resources as well as deeper political conflicts concerning the boundaries of state intervention, and they both led to contradictory outcomes. The nature of these conflicts was reflected in the ambiguity of the second commission’s recommendations, which ranged between the extremes of calling for comprehensive regulation on one hand and postponing its implementation on the other.37–40 In Germany, then, expert decision making has retreated to the relatively invisible sphere of public administration, where lobby groups can directly influence processes of legislation and implementation. Backed up by the neocorporatist structure of the political system, a coalition of industrial lobby groups and conservative politicians has succeeded in dominating the assessment and regulatory processes. This way of insulating the implementation process from the public gaze is in keeping with established national styles of accountability, forms of demonstrating the objectivity of expert knowledge claims which can be seen as part of the national civic epistemology. While the first commission was quite successful in terms of political effectiveness, the working processes of both commissions lacked public transparency and accountability. The corporatist closure of assessment and decision-making processes in Germany has led to factual asymmetries of power with regard to which views are presented in public debate and what access exists to the resources necessary to express those views through the conduct of scientific assessments. NGOs and other civil society organizations have virtually been excluded from these assessment processes. This feature resonates with the German style of public knowledge making and visibility: in contrast to the 6 United States, there is no further need for accountability to a wider, potentially excluded and potentially ‘irrational’ public in Germany.33 Triggered by international media coverage, ‘climategate’ was also reported in German newspapers around February 2010.35,36 Even if controversies have been highlighted in the German media and more attention has been given to climate skeptics in the aftermath of ‘climategate’, there is still no public backing off from the consensus position on the need for emissions reductions.52 There are also growing concerns at Germany’s Ministry of Education and Research, which is spending EUR 250 million ($338 million) to support climate science this year.53 In response to ‘climategate’, the Federal Ministry of Education and Research has organized internal meetings involving scientists who represent the country’s most important research institutions. Similar to the Study Group on Energy in 1986, the governing coalition under Chancellor Angela Merkel tried to take advantage of strong public concerns about the climate ‘catastrophe’ to reintroduce nuclear power in late 2010. It triggered outspoken public criticism and nationwide resistance, and contributed to the remarkable rise in popularity of the Green Party in 2010. This example points to a specific feature of the German political landscape: while the reality of climate change has never been in doubt in Germany, nuclear power now faces a remarkable degree of opposition. The use of nuclear power as a so-called ‘bridging technology’ in the national energy mix and the implementation of new technologies (such as, carbon capture and sequestration) have turned into sites of resistance and of the repoliticization of the climate debate. As in the 1980s, resistance to nuclear power has turned into a wider issue of trust in the institutions of this representative democracy and expertise. In the aftermath of the accident at the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan in March 2011, Chancellor Merkel made an astonishing political Uturn. She went from being an enthusiastic supporter of nuclear energy to arguing for phasing it out as soon as possible.54 As an immediate response, Merkel has set up two expert bodies, one for technical aspects and one for ethical questions.55 It appears that she has set up hybrid and inclusive expert commissions to generate consensus on contested issues, thus offering protection from a growing risk awareness and resistance among the general public.5 This strategy reveals similarities to the setting up of inquiry commissions on climate change in 1986 and indicates the path dependence involved in drawing on inclusive expertise for building trust in German decision making. 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Volume 3, January/February 2012 WIREs Climate Change The challenges of building cosmopolitan climate expertise In summary, the work of the inquiry commissions reflected specific aspects of a national civic epistemology, in particular the inclusion of all voices and actors affected, the drive for consensus accompanied by a desire to keep conflict out of science, and the creation of an expert body to anticipate and legitimize legislative action.37 The experts’ practices conformed to a national tradition of expertise that requires ‘univocal’ expert statements and disapproves of open polarization among experts. In this way, the inquiry commissions were instrumental in building trust in climate science and providing the necessary expert justification for far-reaching mitigation policies. One of the most striking features of German political culture is its consensual style.47,48 Influential scientific organizations, the Bundestag, the government, and even industry, have all tried to speak as if ‘with one voice’. German lobby groups have not openly joined international or U.S. lobby groups such as the Global Climate Coalition, as criticizing climate science and resisting climate protection would immediately lead to a loss of credibility. This can be read as a symptom of Germany’s strongly consensus-oriented political culture.a CHALLENGES FOR BUILDING COSMOPOLITAN EXPERTISE One of the main lessons learnt from the German case is that a ‘one-size-fits-all’ model of expertise cannot work because the most appropriate ways of producing, using, and validating scientific expertise can vary from case to case, from context to context and from culture to culture. The German case provides a compelling example of lingering divergence rather than growing convergence in the reception of scientific expertise on climate change. Even if climate change has been identified by a scientific community speaking globally as if with one voice, the uptake of scientific findings in policy arenas has been highly uneven and selective, and public assent has not been readily forthcoming.9,20,56 This is particularly the case when it comes to questions of trust and credibility. There is plentiful evidence that the backlash against climate science and mistrust of climate scientists has been much stronger in the United States than in Germany. The national responses to ‘climategate’ also recall deeper historical and cultural patterns and reflect certain key features of a national civic epistemology: the hybrid and inclusive expert commissions set up to represent a ‘microcosm of society’ were instrumental in providing a form of broad and consensual expertise that is trusted in Germany. In contrast to a onesize-fits-all model, the ways in which policy-relevant Volume 3, January/February 2012 knowledge is used and validated in different contexts and settings do not converge but rather still vary substantially from one country to another in almost ideal–typical fashion: hybrid and inclusive consensus building processes carry more weight in Germany than pure, disciplinary norms uncontaminated by overt interests.5,31–34 These differences also explain why the IPCC faces more resistance in the United States, for instance, than in Germany. While the IPCC’s procedures for seeking peer review conform to German forms of public accountability and styles of expertise, they fail to respond adequately to different traditions of achieving knowledge closure that do not share the hybrid, consensual, and closed approach to expertise. Mistrust of the IPCC can be explained partly by a resistance to international organizations and the underlying assumption that policy, like scientific knowledge, has to be coordinated by a single authority at the global level (multilateralism). These forms of cultural divergence indicate that the relationship between scientific expertise, policy making, and public trust is neither uniform nor linear nor deterministic.5,13,57–62 The very fact that national differences still exist signals a need for the role of science in future climate policies to be rethought. The question remains: if nation states such as Germany and the United States can diverge so greatly, how can credibility be established across international public arenas? The Official Reaction: Trust Through Internal Transparency This section discusses how current initiatives seek to cope with these challenges. In response to ‘climategate’, the InterAcademy Council (IAC) was set up under a UN mandate to review the IPCC’s processes and procedures.63 In August 2010, the IAC devised a set of recommendations aimed at strengthening the IPCC’s processes and procedures so as to be better able to respond to future challenges and ensure the ongoing quality of its reports. At its 32nd plenary session in October 2010, the IPCC initiated intergovernmental negotiations on how to implement the IAC recommendations. These negotiations were continued at the 33rd plenary session in May 2011.64 Both the IAC and the IPCC focused on improving internal processes, procedures and structures for peer review, quality control, and communication rather than on the substantive content of IPCC reports. The IAC recognizes that the IPCC is operating ‘under the public microscope’ and has concluded that ‘accountability and transparency must be considered as a growing obligation’.27 The IPCC has dealt with the recommendations in a particular way: it has made internal 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 7 wires.wiley.com/climatechange Advanced Review procedures more transparent to scientific peers and governments. However, this emphasis on making IPCC procedures more internally accountable, inclusive, and transparent actually diverts attention away from the public arena and fails to render the IPCC more democratically accountable, a point already made often by Brian Wynne in relation to other controversies over risk. In key respects, the prevailing reformist discourse can be seen to act by default as a cover—a legitimizer—of the existing structures and concepts driving the assessments.65 This narrow framing of the reform process can be read as an attempt to keep the reform debate away from the political ‘whirl’. It accords with the IPCC’s self-description as neutral ‘but not prescriptive’.59,66 It holds that information is produced prior to and independent of policy making and can thus be universally provided. The self-description thus mirrors and reinforces the onesize-fits-all model of expertise that—as this example indicates—continues to dominate perceptions among climate scientists, policy makers, and advisors to some extent.14,15,20,24,62,67–69 Even as it reforms its internal procedures and management structures, the IPCC is reluctant to openly address challenges like the demand for public accountability. Although the IPCC does not conduct traditional research but rather produces policyrelevant knowledge, the IPCC establishment still proceeds as if the panel produces primary ‘scientific knowledge’ generated by traditional scientific research. Even if the widely inclusive, extremely intensive peer review process has already opened up the debate about climate change to a far wider range of actors than is usually consulted in science,70 it still rest on traditions of scientific quality control and accountability. As a result, the reform discourse does not challenge but rather reinforces the underlying ideal of ‘sound’, neutral disciplinary science. The IPCC has reduced the question of how to inspire public trust to the technical question of efficient communication. The communication strategy adopted by the IPCC in May 2011 remains linear, one way, hierarchical, top-down, and paternalistic. Designed to secure public acquiescence in advance, it is prescriptive and repeats the elitist and paternalistic mantra ‘we know what is best for you’. It is set up to provide a context in which the Panel’s leadership can maintain its exclusive authority over the translation and interpretation of its findings and thus to defend its privileged position as the gate keeper of scientific truth.71 As a result, the ‘public’ is reduced to an illiterate and passive resource to be drawn on for support in battles ‘over the public truth’. The main problem with the IPCC’s communication strategy lies 8 in the fact that it is based on the deficit model of public understanding of science.72,73 The communication strategy is still based on the assumption that public doubts and the lack of political action are caused by the politicization of science by powerful corporate interests,10 the media’s misrepresentation of dissent9 and poorly informed public opinion.11,42–46,70,74 According to this model, mistrust can be countered simply by transferring knowledge and engaging in top-down communication.73,75,76 In short, more and better science and communication will trigger political action and public consent. The alarmism (or ‘climate porn’) promoted by some climate advocates (including IPCC chairman Pachauri) and certain media outlets also follows this line of argumentation.75,77–79 The limitations of this approach, however, have become increasingly obvious. By using its communication strategy as a means of controlling the interpretation of its outcomes, the IPCC is exacerbating rather than solving the problem of public trust.40,80–82 More and better information and communication are not enough to resolve the problems facing climate experts with regard to public misgivings. ‘Climategate’ also demonstrates that trust in science does not depend on the strength of internal consensus among scientists alone as many scientists may have hoped, given that the latest IPCC report signaled that controversies over the existence of global warming have finally been settled.5,40 Indeed, many scientists have become frustrated that the evidence they have already provided has not prompted political action and public trust.83 Given these challenges, the IPCC reform efforts are too narrowly focused on regaining public trust in its findings and procedures. The main problem remains, namely, that the assessment processes are still conducted behind ‘closed doors’ and thus protected from rather than opened up to public scrutiny by broader audiences such as observer organizations, NGOs, and the wider public. The IPCC leadership is still seeking to control the reform process and is delaying the introduction of farreaching procedural innovations that may undermine its own power. In this sense, the reformist discourse is being instrumentalized as a ‘cover’ for the existing processes and concepts that guide the assessments. ‘Public witnessing’ is still confined to experts and government representatives who already participate in the IPCC’s review and approval processes. As a result, the procedures and institutional arrangements for providing public accountability are still lacking—even though the need for them today is more critical than ever. Despite being intergovernmental in name and 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Volume 3, January/February 2012 WIREs Climate Change The challenges of building cosmopolitan climate expertise gaining greater political influence, the IPCC is subject to none of the legal political requirements that constrain, but also legitimize, national expert committees. These reform efforts are necessary but not sufficient to build trust: they may satisfy many scientists but do not meet growing public expectations for public accountability.84 The IPCC is not able to demonstrate to the wider public (like bloggers) that experts are not conspiring to dupe them. The IPCC establishment appears reluctant to implement already adopted principles, like its own conflict of interest policy, and in some cases is delaying their implementation until the next assessment cycle in 2014. This lack of compliance and the reluctance to implement the IAC’s recommendations serves neither to improve the organization’s performance nor to rebuild trust. The Cosmopolitan Alternative As we have shown, the history of the climate controversy illustrates the limitations of the one-size-fits-all model of expertise and demonstrates the need for a more productive and trusted role for the scientific community in contributing to the information needs of decision makers.85 Perhaps, the most promising alternative to the IPCC’s model of expertise is to be found among the wide range of efforts to promote a ‘cosmopolitan’ approach to climate politics. As Sheila Jasanoff,86 Mike Hulme,18 Antony Giddens,51 and David Held87 have argued, climate change is not just an environmental problem or a policy problem that requires a single, global top-down solution determined by scientific consensus. Instead, it is a site of contestation and reconfiguration of ways of thinking and making decisions about climate change. Despite emerging from different theoretical backgrounds and exhibiting considerable differences, what these cosmopolitan concepts have in common is that they call for a more differentiated, reflexive, and more culturally sensitive approach to scientific expertise in the more complex, contingent, contested, and ‘nested’ settings of global politics. The following section summarizes how these scholars frame and address the challenges of providing expertise in a globalizing world. Moving Beyond the Boundary Between Facts and Values The IPCC’s reluctance to ‘get its hands dirty’ by openly addressing its public accountability reveals the schizophrenic position of having an awareness of the context while at the same time ignoring it. This selfunderstanding may explain why reflections on the Volume 3, January/February 2012 IPCC’s political and public role are systematically excluded in the current reform debate. It allows IPCC experts to act in an overtly political manner while simultaneously claiming to be disengaged from politics. Climate science and policy, however, cannot be strictly separated, as the linear model of expertise implies. As a matter of fact, the boundary between facts and values or invariably becomes fuzzy and science and policy become inextricably intertwined in controversies over climate change.88–90 Empirical findings confirm the ever greater interpenetration of knowledge and values.91 As indicated above, at the international level, scientific controversies over the evidence for climate change have become a proxy for political battles over whether and how to react to climate change.24 In this way, scientific controversies about the causes of climate change are closely linked to political arguments about questions of causation, the attribution of responsibilities and the distribution of costs and benefits.5,17,33,92–94 The problematic implications of this schizophrenic position are generally not recognized. Rather than arguing about the political interests and values which motivated the political controversy in the first place, all the parties become embroiled in a controversy over the scientific foundations on which their views are based. The larger difficulty lies in the way the problem is framed: scientific evidence counts as the sole foundation of political authority. As a result, policy commitment and public consent are reduced merely to a question of whether the science is right or wrong. Ignoring the political context in which the IPCC operates is, paradoxically enough, instrumental in exaggerating the politicization of science rather than keeping problems away from the ‘political whirl’. Scientific and political statements become inseparable: it has become difficult to disentangle political arguments about climate policies from scientific arguments about the evidence for human-induced climate change. The quality of both political debate and scientific practice suffers as a consequence. ‘Stealth advocacy’ (Pielke)—the use of allegedly neutral climate science to justify a particular policy option—does not solve but contributes to the current loss of trust. Cosmopolitan approaches highlight the fact that disagreement expressed in disputes about scientific evidence is often rooted in more fundamental differences over epistemology, values, and the sources of well-being, or about the role of science in policy making as demonstrated by the German case.95 Even when scientists, politicians, and publics agree on the basic principles and most robust findings of climate science, there is still plenty of room for disagreement 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 9 wires.wiley.com/climatechange Advanced Review about what the implications of that science are for action. Even if not openly addressed, there are remarkable cultural differences underlying the recent controversy over the IPCC reform, particularly with regard to negotiating common criteria for evaluating assessments and establishing rules of procedure and governance structures for global assessments. These divergent national traditions present additional hurdles for producing and validating global expertise. The IPCC thus inevitably functions as a site of contestation among competing models of expertise and underlying criteria regarding how to govern and evaluate expertise. Indeed, the IPCC’s self-description as ‘neutral’ is a political choice in itself. These political choices inside science cannot be ignored but have to be acknowledged and dealt with reflexively. Rather than assuming that disputes and disagreements are solely scientific, the issues at stake have to be treated more honestly as political and economical matters that need to be solved by political decision making and by public deliberation. If the many factors and criteria that go into a policy commitment are recognized, scientific authority can no longer be the sole foundation of political authority.67,88,96 The political choices and moral dimensions entailed by expert practices call for openness and accountability when offering scientific advice. Performance and Credibility Cosmopolitan approaches call for moving beyond the ‘artificial’ separation between scientific issues and those of public credibility and accountability. They argue that public transparency and accountability do not necessarily undermine but, on the contrary, help to create public trust in climate experts. They follow a line of argumentation opposed to the one espoused by the IPCC. Even if there is a remarkable degree of scientific consensus, as the IPCC’s 2007 report indicates, its public acceptance cannot be taken for granted. As shown by the German expert commissions, trust in science cannot be reduced to a question of scientific purity. In the case of the IPCC, trust is given neither by any formal authority (such as a UN mandate) nor by the strength of the scientific evidence alone. Even though—or rather, precisely because—the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, its authority was challenged. These examples also indicate that trust is a matter of the performance and persuasive power of the people and institutions who speak for science. As mentioned above, in order to maintain its political authority, the IPCC tries to speak with one voice. Its statements are obviously for political consumption: 10 the IPCC plays down differences because it believes that consensual statements coming from a scientific arena carry more clout in the political arena than do many disparate voices expressing conflicting views. Consensual outcomes, it holds, enjoy greater authority in the international arena, a view which anticipates and mirrors the consensual UN mode of decision making and its respective governance structure in the ‘shadow of hierarchy’. Cosmopolitan approaches, however, share the assumption that what matters are not consensual statements per se but the ongoing relationships between experts and the public and a willingness on the part of responsible experts and institutions to demonstrate why the public should trust them rather than their consensual orchestration.5,40 Public trust thus depends on the ways in which policy-relevant knowledge is validated and made authoritative for public use. As an example, the reluctant responses of the IPCC establishment and its poor performance contributed toward exacerbating the problem of trust, although the scientific quality of the IPCC reports was seriously challenged. Not just scientific consensus but also the Panel’s relationship with the public—the way they communicate and interact with one another—is crucial. As science studies, scholars have shown over the years, the credibility of knowledge claims and trust in ‘abstract’ experts relates to long-established, culturally situated practices of interpretation and reasoning.33,97 As demonstrated by the German case, however, ways to maintain public trust vary significantly. Coping with Pluralism and Diversity The technocratic notion that better science will settle these differences ignores their roots in political, national, organizational, and intellectual culture. The value of science is necessarily restricted when expert bodies are thought of as forcing consensus but are condemned to fail because they cannot solve underlying conflicts over values. This results in inaction and fosters political gridlock. It renders both policy and its supporting science vulnerable to the dogmatic amplification of doubt.96,98,99 Scientists can play a more constructive role in politics if, instead of discrediting rivals’ expertise, they acknowledge political and cultural differences and do not expect them to be resolved by science.66,100–102 Rather than forming an expert consensus about universally valid policy options, an alternative approach has to recognize the diversity of knowledge sources and the plurality of values in a polycentered world. This cosmopolitan reframing also encourages discussion around alternative (nonscientific) representations of climate change and may 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Volume 3, January/February 2012 WIREs Climate Change The challenges of building cosmopolitan climate expertise open up discussion of paths not previously identified and options not previously considered.96,98,100,103 What are the implications of a cosmopolitan perspective on the issue of science and decision making? These deep-seated cultural differences and the nature of policy-relevant uncertainties and disagreement require further explanation and a deeper understanding.15,67 One of the major challenges is how to cope with the variety and diversity of scientific approaches, knowledge sources, framings and options, and underlying values. Hybrid expert bodies like the IPCC are forced to find a common approach to conceptualizing climate change. Their task is to develop appropriate procedures that bridge culturally divergent styles and legitimize the expression of plurality in the world system. From this perspective, the establishment of consensus can no longer be considered as important as engaging in a full exploration of the implications of diversity and uncertainty for decision making.104 However, what are the implications of such an approach? Does such a perspective lead to endless debates not only about the scientific evidence but also about the legitimacy of the competing sets of criteria for what counts as scientifically credible and politically legitimate knowledge?5 Or are there mechanisms, procedures, and institutional arrangements available for dealing with these challenges in a scientifically credible and politically legitimate and trustworthy way? ‘Think Globally, Act Locally’ ‘Think globally, act locally’ has become the motto for environmental politics at the local level and points to the continued importance of local knowledge and bottom-up, place-based identity formation in designing and implementing climate policies.93 NGOs and other civil society organizations, however, have faced particular problems in reconciling the global, systemic perspective of scientists with the practical needs of local politics. While the IPCC fits neatly into the UN’s multilateralist order, one of the future challenges it is likely to face is how to respond and adjust to a changing order of governance. The indications are that the current order will be replaced by a more fragmented, polycentered order of governance with pluralistic, nested political decision-making structures. It is critical to take into account the interplay of different levels and the nested institutional landscape of decision making. This political–institutional nestedness requires actors in the different rule structures to coordinate their actions in order to reach a political decision and implement it.105 These changing political framework Volume 3, January/February 2012 conditions will contribute to amplify the diversity of knowledge sources and the plurality of values. Processes of Mediation and Translation The one-size-fits-all model of expertise tends to abstract information from local contexts and cultures and to decouple it from systems of experience and understanding.86 Following this model, the IPCC, for instance, obscures the local and situated characteristics of knowledge.106,107 Since scientific knowledge is situated and context dependent, it also has to be ‘translated’ and communicated into relevant languages across scales in order to inform policy at different levels. The need to open up debate on climate science thus calls for stronger processes of mediation and translation. Adaptation to climate change can be seen as a site of relocalizing climate change in local cultures and linking it to more personal scales of meaning and experience which are central to understanding both the credibility of and resistance to the knowledge claims of the IPCC.62,86,106 Re-embedding climate change in local cultures also implies a shift from abstract, top-down approaches to expertise to placebased, bottom-up ones involving local and regional jurisdictions and citizens. The growing public scrutiny of the IPCC and its particular task of producing policy-relevant knowledge demands new forms of interdisciplinary expert judgment and public justification that have more to do with public accountability in the democratic political sense than with the quality of the science being assessed by scientific peers.84 The calls to render scientific expertise more transparent demands a responsiveness to the scrutiny of an educated public.28 Deliberative approaches not only require designing expert bodies to be more transparent and accountable to the public but also opening up processes of deliberation for interested actors. As an alternative to top-down, paternalistic communication processes in response to ‘climategate’, cosmopolitan scholars promote a more distributed and participatory approach, one that engages scientists, governments, and publics in a shared process of mutual understanding and genuine dialog.108,109,87 Trust can also be rebuilt by opening up different forms of public and policy engagement in understanding the processes and practices of experts, as much as explaining the substance of that knowledge. Cosmopolitan approaches strongly emphasize the value of engaging different parties in a common dialog. Deliberations thus should not be restricted to interpretations of scientific findings. They should also be opened up to the ways in which the assessments are organized, reports 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 11 wires.wiley.com/climatechange Advanced Review are produced and reviewed, and to how the expert body is governed. These forms of opening up expertise are thought to be instrumental to both improving the quality of the assessment and ensuring the legitimacy of the process.110 Rather than undermining trust in science, this would actually allow the public to place their trust more discerningly in the various types of knowledge that scientists can offer.28 Hybrid, inclusive procedures akin to the German inquiry commissions—although criticized as being too ‘politicizing’—hold more promise than approaches that stress the integrity of experts and disciplines to the detriment of plurality of opinion.5 It is an empirically open question whether or not public scrutiny and the demand for public accountability made by some sections of the blogosphere and civil society will lead to different outcomes than those of the campaigns started by ‘merchants of doubt’. Such questions point to the need to open up the debate on the ‘democratization’ of global expertise. They also require that a distinction be made between different forms of the politicization of science and depoliticization of politics and their implications for democratic politics. As the IPCC demonstrates, scrutiny enacted by the ‘merchants of doubt’ does not necessarily lead to the ‘democratization of science’; instead, it may lead to proxy debates on scientific evidence that do not challenge but rather reinforce elements of ‘technocracy’. Even if the rivals in these prevailing controversies are pursuing different political agendas, they all are committed to idealized, naive, and oversimplified notions of what ‘sound’ science is. ‘Democratization of Democracy’ Trust in abstract experts is dependent not so much on the democratization of expertise111 but on what Giddens has called the ‘democratisation of democracy’.51 The one-size-fits-all model leaves little room for robust democratic debate and choice with respect to institutional arrangements and policies. Although the IAC and IPCC reform efforts focus on questions of governance, they are reluctant to openly address IPCC’s role in climate policy.18 The ‘delegated’ decision-making authority and empowering function exercised by the IPCC in global policies, however, raise questions of political legitimacy and democratic representation.58,92,112–114 Although the role of expertise in democratic societies has been subject to extensive scholarly debate in recent years, the discussion on how to democratize global expertise seems to play a marginal role. Empirical 12 studies focus on the epistemic and political closure of debates that results in single, technical ‘silver bullet’ solutions, such as global emissions markets, and on their path dependency in global environmental governance. What is lacking is a discussion of alternatives, of which democratic ideals are invoked in this debate, and of the implications for our understanding (and evaluation) of scientific accountability and legitimacy. Deliberative Concepts of Democracy Deliberative concepts of democracy offer a complementary approach to science studies and science policy studies.111 The heightened demand for public accountability mirrors the structural problems inherent in the existing system of global climate governance.87 Deliberative approaches advocate that democracy should become a learning process in and through which people come to terms with the range of issues they need to understand in order to hold defensible positions. Uncertainties associated with climate change demand a wide range of experience, expertise, and consultation and thus offer opportunities for deliberative processes that can lead to new and innovative ideas about public policy and about how democracy might work. To remodel climate politics around deliberative democracy is thus to create an opening for a change in the way democracies address climate change.87 The interest in trust has not been matched, however, by an analysis of the context of existing institutional frameworks and governance structures. This is not only a question of trust and accountability but also one of democratic delegation and representation.82,115,116 The authority of scientific experts in hybrid forms of governance is insufficiently understood, particularly when it comes to broader implications for our understanding of democratic legitimacy and accountability.117 This also requires that we look more closely at how to create flexible, reflexive, and accountable institutions of representative democracy that can track the emergence of issues and are imbued with regulatory authority to respond proportionately as new information develops. As soon as we recognize that science cannot compel public policy, the need to develop effective institutional arrangements for it to inform public policy in an appropriate way becomes greater than ever.117 CONCLUSION While the IPCC has been able to provide a common knowledge base for international climate policies, its credibility in the eyes of citizens and policy makers 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Volume 3, January/February 2012 WIREs Climate Change The challenges of building cosmopolitan climate expertise around the world still varies significantly. As shown in this article, these differences are due mainly to different approaches and underlying criteria for interpreting and validating policy-relevant knowledge for decision making. The hybrid and consensual approach was highly effective in terms of achieving closure in the scientific and political debate and in accelerating political decision making in Germany. Two German expert inquiry commissions were instrumental in providing broad institutional support for far-reaching mitigation policies and enjoyed a remarkable degree of trust. Different national styles of public knowledge making and expertise also explain why the IPCC faces more resistance in the United States than in Germany. The IPCC’s procedures fail to respond adequately to U.S. traditions of achieving knowledge closure. These observations have consequences of global significance for expertise: the IPCC’s task of producing policy-relevant knowledge ‘under the public microscope’ requires new forms of public justification that still vary significantly across contexts and cultures. Given these challenges, recent initiatives aimed at responding to ‘climategate’ are too narrowly focused on improving the quality and transparency of the science. Even if there is still a remarkable degree of scientific consensus, its public acceptance and credibility can not be taken for granted. Taking transparency and accountability seriously ‘as an obligation’ requires that it be addressed openly. Procedural and institutional arrangements for novel forms of expert judgment, quality control, and public disclosure of politically relevant knowledge are entirely lacking at the global level. The question of public accountability and trust in global expertise requires further explication and research. It also calls for a dialog to be started up between different social science traditions such as science and technology studies, social psychology, and deliberative theory. NOTE a This feature of German political culture is partly grounded in the legal tradition of ‘The Rule of Law’ (Rechtsstaat), which requires unambiguous and unequivocal statements. It is mirrored in the structure of the political system: the principles of coalition government and cooperative federalism also reinforce the preference for consensual solutions. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author would like to thank the anonymous reviewers, Mike Hulme, Myanna Lahsen, and Kathleen Cross for their constructive comments on earlier versions of this article. This article is part of the project ‘Nested Network’, funded by the German Ministry for Education and Research, Funding Initiative ‘Research on the Relationship between Science, Politics, and Society’. REFERENCES 1. Harrison NE, Bryner GC. Science and Politics in the International Environment. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers; 2004. 2. Hecht AD, Tirpak D. Framework agreement on climate change. A scientific and policy history. Clim Change 1995, 29:371–402. 3. Lövbrand E. Co-producing European climate science and policy. A cautionary note on the making of useful knowledge. Sci Public Policy 2011, 38:225–236. 4. McIntyre S. CC WG3 and the Greenpeace Karaoke. Available at: http://climateaudit.org/2011/06/14/ipccwg3-and-the-greenpeace-karaoke/. (Accessed November 8, 2011). 5. Jasanoff S. 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Dryzek J, Norgaard R, Schlossberg D, eds. The Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 2011. Jasanoff S. A new climate for society. Theory Culture Society 2010, 27: 233–253. Lentsch J, Weingart P, eds. The Politics of Scientific Advice: Institutional Design for Quality Assurance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2011. Volume 3, January/February 2012 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 17