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Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Summary for Policy Makers:
Indonesia Second National
Communication Under The United
Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Jakarta, November 2009
1
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
2
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Summary for Policy Makers:
Indonesia Second National
Communication Under The United
Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Jakarta, November 2009
1
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Adviser
State Minister of Environment
Editor in Chief
Masnellyarti Hilman, Deputy Minister for Nature Conservation Enhancement and
Environmental Destruction Control, Ministry of Environment
Authors
Rizaldi Boer, Sulistyowati, Irsal Las, Farida Zed, Nur Masripatin, Dana Kartasasmita,
Dadang Hilman, Haneda Sri Mulyanto
Acknowledgement:
The State Minister of Environment would like to thank the following for their contribution
to the preparation of the Summary for Policy Makers Indonesia Second National
Communication under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC):
Sunaryo (Ministry of Forestry), Marwansyah Lobo Balia (Ministry of Energy & Mineral
Resources), Wendy Aritenang (Ministry of Transportation) Eddy Effendi Tedjakusuma
(National Development Planning Agency), Subandono Diposaptono (Ministry of Marine
Affairs and Fisheries), Ida Kusuma (Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries), Elly Andriani
Sinaga (Ministry of Transportation), Gatot Irianto (Ministry of Agriculture), Hendradjat N
(Ministry of Agriculture), Yana Anggadireja (Agency For the Assessment and Application
Technology), Sriwono Harijono (BMKG), Ano Herwana (BPS-Statistics Indonesia), Wan
Alkadri (Ministry of Health), Endang Supraptini (The Ministry of Industry), Agus Wahyudi
(The Ministry of Industry), Ghafur Akbar Dharmaputra (Ministry of Foreign Affairs),
Iman Bonila Sombu (Ministry of Home Affairs), Lilih Handayaningrum (The Ministry of
Industry), Saleh Abdurrahman (Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources), Sidik Boedoyo
(Agency For the Assessment and Application Technology), Soendjoto (PU), Agus
Hermawan Atmadilaga (National Coordinating Agency for Survey and Mapping), Thomas
Djamaluddin (National Institute of Aeronautics and Space), Ari Wibowo (Ministry of
Forestry), Suryahadi (Bogor Agriculture University), Retno Gumilang (Bandung Institute of
Technology), Muhammad Ardiansyah (Bogor Agriculture University)), Rini Hidayati (Bogor
Agriculture University), Feril Hariati (Ibnu Khaldun University Bogor), Agus Buono (Bogor
Agriculture University), Prihasto Setyanto (Ministry of Agriculture), Elza Surmaini (Ministry
of Agriculture), Yanuar J. Purwanto (Bogor Agriculture University), Kiki Kartikasari (Bogor
Agriculture University), Arien Heryansyah (Bogor Agriculture University), Idat G. Permana
(Bogor Agriculture University), Adi Rakhman (Bogor Agriculture University).
Support:
The preparation of the Second National Communication has been supported by
the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) with funding from the Global
Environment Facility (GEF).
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Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Preface
Preface
The Second National Communication (SNC) to the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is one of Indonesia’s most significant official position
documents on climate change. As of November 2009, 12 non-Annex I countries have
submitted their Second National Communications, while 67 non-Annex I Parties,
including Indonesia, expect to complete their draft SNCs by the end of 2009.
Indonesia submitted its First National Communication in 1999. In order to improve
and build upon the First National Communication, the SNC development process
has involved intensive stakeholder consultations over the period of two years, and
has also emphasized climate change adaptation issues. Indonesia’s Second National
Communication will be submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat by the end of 2009.
As requested by the UNFCCC, National Communications are a vehicle for nations
to present information on emissions and removals of greenhouse gases (GHGs), and
details of the steps taken to implement the Convention. It is important to note that
National Communications are a continuing process, enabling and encouraging nations
to accommodate the latest data and methodologies. In this respect, we acknowledge
there are still certain sectors such as GHG emissions from Land Use Change and Forestry
(LUCF), where methodologies and available data are continuously being refined and
updated.
Therefore, the Indonesia SNC should be understood as a snapshot of the current
understanding on where Indonesia stands in addressing climate change mitigation and
adaptation challenges. I am pleased to announce that many stakeholders are already
working hard to improve on the SNC in Indonesia’s Third National Communication and
other documents.
Finally, I would like to extend my appreciation to all parties involved in the
preparation of Indonesia’s SNC, which was supported by GEF (Global Environmental
Facility) through its implementing agency UNDP. Contributions, inputs and all the work
put into this document from all institutions, departments, private sector organizations
and NGOs are gratefully acknowledged and appreciated.
Gusti Muhammad Hatta
State Minister for the Environment
Republic of Indonesia
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Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Contents
Contents
Preface
.............................................................. 5
Introduction ....................................................... 5
National Circumstances .................................
5
National GHG inventory ...............................
6
Steps planned to implement
the Convention .............................................. 10
Measures to Facilitate Adequate
Adaptation to Climate Change ................ 12
Measures to Mitigate
Climate Change ............................................... 23
Other Information ........................................... 35
Barriers, and Related Financial,
Technical and Capacity Needs
References
................ 36
........................................................ 40
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Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Introduction
National Circumstances
Introduction
Indonesia continues its efforts and actions towards the implementation of the
commitments as a Non-Annex I Party to the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Indonesia presented the First National Communication
to the UNFCCC in 1999. One of the most important sections was the first National
Greenhouse Gases Emissions Inventory (NGHGEI) for the year 1990 and also the results
of the first studies on the country’s vulnerability to climate change. The Second National
Communication (SNC) presents the National Greenhouse Gases Emissions Inventory
(NGHGEI) for the years 2000 to 2005.
This Communication was supported by the Global Environmental Fund (GEF) through
the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), along with further funding
from the Government of Indonesia. The funds received allowed the improvement of
the emissions inventory, and supported the development of studies on climate change
mitigation and adaptation in Indonesia. On this occasion, the process of planning
the National Communication content included consultations with academics and
representatives from government institutions, private sector and non-governmental
organizations, in order to capture their opinion and points of view about what elements
of the previous communication should be improved in this second assessment. A public
consultation was also held for the same purpose.
As requested, Indonesia’s Second National Communication was prepared in accordance
with the UNFCCC Reporting guidelines on National Communications.
National Circumstances
Indonesia is the fourth most populous nation in the world following China, India and
the United States. The population grew from 119 million in 1971 to 219 million in 2005.
While the growth rate is slowing down from 1.49% (1990–2000) to become 1.34% (2001–
2005), it is projected that Indonesia’s population will reach 300 million in 2030.
Poverty remains a challenge, while unemployment and underemployment are still
relatively high. In the Mid-Term National Development Plan (RPJMN) 2004–2009, it was
targeted that poverty and unemployment would be about 5.1% and 8.2% respectively.
A recent report from BPS stated that the number of unemployment by February 2008
reached 8.46% or about 9.43 million people. However, based on the projection of the
Institute for Development Economics and Finance (Indef), due to current economic
crisis the number of poor and unemployed in 2008 may increase to 9.5% and 16.3%
respectively (Depsos, 2009).
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Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
National Circumstances
National GHG inventory
Indonesia’s GDP is approximately USD 175 billion, in which trade (16.7%), manufacturing
(28%), agriculture (15.4%), and services (10.17%) are the main contributors. Earnings
from exports were about USD 69 billion (primarily oil and gas, textiles, appliances, coal,
copper), while imports accounted for about US$ 44.8 billion (primarily food, chemicals,
capitals and consumer goods). GDP growth has increased steadily since 1998, reaching
6.3% in 2007 thus bringing per capita GDP to around USD 2000.
The role of sectors other than oil and gas has become much more significant in the
Indonesian economy since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), with the oil and gas sectors
experiencing negative growth rates each year since with the exception of 2000. Among
the non-oil and gas sectors, agriculture has continued to play an important role. It is a
sector that was significantly less affected by the AFC, and indeed helped the recovery
of Indonesian economy after the crisis through a substantial increase in exports and its
absorption of unemployed workers in its role as an “employer of last resort” for many
jobseekers (Siregar, 2008).
In line with country’s economic and population development, domestic consumption
of energy has been growing. Current growth rates are around 2.5% per annum, rising
from 496,589 MMBOE (million barrel oil equivalents) in 2000 to 589,668 MMBOE in
2007. The majority of this consumption is accounted by industrial sector, followed by
transportation, and households. In 2007 energy consumption was distributed heavily
in these sectors; industrial sector 47.9%, transportation 30.5%, household 12.8%,
commercial 4%, and others 4.7%. It is projected that energy consumption will remain
dominated by the industry and transportation sectors.
In supplying the domestic final energy demand, Indonesia still relies on fossil fuelbased resources. However, this may shift in the medium term; according the Indonesian
National Energy Policy (KEN), the share of new and renewable energy is targeted to
increase from 4.5% (44.55 MMBOE) in 2003 to 17% (322 MMBOE) in 2025.
National GHG inventory
The National Greenhouse Gases Inventory (NGHGI) was estimated using Tier 1 and Tier 2
of the 2006 IPCC Reporting Guidelines. In 2000, total GHG emissions for the three main
greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) without LULUCF (LUCF and peat fires) reached
594.738 Gg CO2e. With the inclusion of LULUCF, total GHG emissions from Indonesia
increase significantly to about 1,415,988 Gg CO2e (Table 1a and 1b). The GHG emissions
(in CO2 equivalent) were distributed unevenly between the three gases recorded: CO2
totalled 1,162,935 Gg, representing 82% of the total; methane (CH4) totalled 226,104
Gg (CO2e), or 15%; and nitrous oxide (N2O) totalled 26,948 Gg (CO2e), or 2%. The main
contributing sectors were Land Use Change and Forestry, followed by energy and peat
fire related emissions (please see below for further discussion on this issue).
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Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
National GHG inventory
Table 1a. Summary of 2000 GHG emission and removal (in Gg)
Source/Sink
Energy
Industry
Agriculture
Land Use Change and
Forestry
1
Peat Fire
Waste
TOTAL
CO2
emission
305,983
31,938
2,178
CO2
removal
1,060,766
172,000
1,662
411,593
CH4
N2 0
CO2e
1,221
104
2,419
6
0
72
333,540
34,197
75,419
3
0
7,020
8,05
649,254
172,000
151,578
1,415,988
1Note: Emission from peat fire was taken from van der Werf et al (2008). Source: MoE (2009)
Table 1b. Summary of GHG emissions from 2000-2005 from all sectors (in Gg)
Energy
Industry
Agriculture
Waste
LUCF
Peat Fire1
Total with
LULUCF
Total Without
LULUCF
2000
333,540
34,197
75,419
151,578
649,254
172,000
2001
348,331
45,545
77,501
153,299
560,546
194,000
1,415,988 1,379,222
594,734
624,676
2002
354,246
33,076
77,030
154,334
1,287,495
678,000
2004
384,668
36,242
77,863
155,390
617,280
440,000
2005
395,990
37,036
80,179
155,609
N.E
451,000
2,584,181 1,226,191 1,711,443
1,119,814+LUCF
618,686
2003
364,925
35,073
79,829
154,874
345,489
246,000
634,701
654,162
668,814+LUCF
1Note: Emission from peat fire was taken from van der Werf et al (2008). Source: MoE (2009)
The emission estimates in the SNC are lower than those reported by a 2007 PEACE,
World Bank and DFID study, which suggested Indonesia to be the 3rd largest emitter
country. The study estimated that the total emission from Indonesia was about 3,014,000
Gg CO2 where LUCF contributed about 85% or about 2,563,000 Gg CO2 (twice the SNC
estimate above). Indeed, a further study from the World Bank (2008) suggested that
the mean annual CO2 emissions from LUCF reached up to 2,398,000 Gg, assuming 53%
from peat fire, 20% from peat drainage (peat oxidation), 22% from deforestation and
5% from palm oil and timber plantation establishment. Between the SNC and World
Bank estimates, a recent study from NCCC (DNPI) (2009) suggested that the total GHG
emissions from LUCF in 2005 reached 1,880,000 Gg CO2e where about 55% was from
peat emissions. These large differences in Indonesian emissions estimates thus appear to
be mainly due to differences in estimates of LUCF emissions, particularly from peat.
Inter-annual variation of emissions from peat fires is also very high (Figure 1). High
emissions normally occurred in El Nino years (1997, 2002, and 2006). The highest
estimate was from Hooijer et al (2006), which estimated the emission based on a
Borneo hotspot count and a carbon calculation method used by Page et al. (2002),
who estimated emissions from peat fires in 1997 El-Nino. This approach may give an
overestimate as hotspot counts in peat lands are not fully proportional to CO2 emissions,
which are governed by further factors such as the depth and area of burning. Therefore,
this relationship may not also be generally applicable for the whole of Indonesia, and so
the extrapolation of emission estimates over Indonesia based on limited ground checks
in Kalimantan may lead to overestimation.
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Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
National GHG inventory
Heil et al. 2007
Levine 1999
Hooijeretal 2006 Minimum
Hooijeretal 2006 Maximum
Duncan 2003
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
van der Werf et al. 2007
1998
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1997
Emission (CO2 Tg)
Van der Werf et al. (2007) attempted to improve emission estimates from peat fires using
several sources of satellite data with biogeochemical and atmospheric modeling to better
understand and constrain peat fire emissions from Indonesia. This resulted in far lower
estimates. The NGHGI adopted the study of the Van der Werf et al. (2007). In 2000, their
estimated emissions from peat fires were calculated at about 172.000 Gg CO2e, while the
average emission of peat fire (1997-2007) was about 466,000 Gg CO2e.
Figure 1. Estimate of emissions from peat fires from various studies. Note emission estimations of years
beyond the publication date of the reports were made by Aldrian (2008) and Wibowo and
Boer (2009).
Indonesia plans to improve emission estimates, particularly from peat lands in the next
National GHG Inventory. At present, activities undertaken by the Ministry of Forestry and
Ministry of Agriculture to improve emission estimates from peat lands are the following:
1. The Ministry of Agriculture (through National Research Consortium for Climate
Variability and Climate Change) is conducting studies to develop emissions factors
from peat lands under different usage scenarios in Central Kalimantan. The Ministry
of Agriculture will also expand this study to other provinces and request for support
from international agencies. Additional surveys to improve activity data on peat
depth (particularly in Papua) are also being planned. It is expected that the funding
allocated for the 3rd National Communication can provide additional support for the
studies.
2. The Ministry of Forestry is improving the emission sink factors from forests and
emission factors from fire (both in mineral soils and peat land). The programme is
being undertaken through the INCAS (Indonesian National Carbon Accounting
System) project and other relevant research programmes under the MoF and partners.
3. The State Ministry of Environment is conducting a pilot study on Peatland
Management, including calculation of GHG emissions from peat lands in West
Kalimantan and Riau Provinces.
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Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
National GHG inventory
Sector-wise National GHG Inventory
The following paragraphs summarize the contribution and trend of emission from 20002005 for all sectors.
Energy Generation. Total emissions from energy sector in 2000 were about
333,540.98 Gg CO2e, or 23% of Indonesia’s total emissions. About 98% of the total
energy emission was from fuel combustion, and of this about 51.5% was from petroleum
and gas refining, 18.2% from transportation, 12.2% from electricity and heat production,
7.4% from residential, 5.9% from manufacturing industries and construction. In the
period from 2000-2005, GHG emissions from this sector showed an increase from
333,540.98 Gg in 2000 to 395,989.72 Gg CO2e in 2005, which represents a 25% increase,
or 3.74% per year.
Industrial Processes. The main gas emitted in the category of industrial processes
was CO2, which represented 93% of the emissions in this category (31,938.19 CO2 Gg in
2000). In the period 2000-2005, CO2 emissions from this sector were relatively constant.
The main source of CO2 emissions came from cement production (49%), followed by
ammonia production (25%) and lime production (12%).
Solvents. The total emission of Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOCs)
was not estimated in the NGHGI of the SNC.
Agriculture. The main GHG emission from this sector was CH4, which accounted
for about 67% of the total emission of the sector. This was followed by N2O (30%) and
CO2 (3%). Total GHG emission in CO2e from this sector in 2000 was about 75,419.73 Gg.
Between 2000 and 2005, agricultural GHG emissions increased at about 6.3%. The main
sources of CH4 emission from this sector were rice paddy fields (69%) and livestock (28%).
Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). In 2000, the rate of CO2
emission from this sector was higher than rate of CO2 removal. The total CO2 emission
was 1,232,766.22 Gg (including peat fire), while the rate of removal was only 411,592.87
Gg. Thus the net CO2 emission was about 821,173 Gg. The main sources of CO2 emission
were deforestation (59%), soil (including peat oxidation) (18%), peat fire (14%) and wood
harvesting (9%). In the period 2000-2004, the rate of LULUCF emissions fluctuated and
the contribution of each emission source also shifted. For example, the highest CO2
emission was in 2002 at 2,584,181 Gg (see Table 1b), almost double the emissions in
2000. Moreover, the contribution of peat fire in 2002 to the total CO2 emission increased
to about 26.2%; this was because 2002 was an El-Nino year (drought year) where wild fire
occurrences increased significantly.
Waste. The main GHG emission from this sector was CH4, which is accounted for
about 93% of the total emission of the sector. Most of CH4 emission was from industrial
waste water treatment and discharge (84%), followed by unmanaged solid waste disposal
(8%) and domestic waste water treatment and Discharge (7%). Total GHG emission in
9
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Steps planned to implement the Convention
CO2e from this sector in 2000 was about 151,578 Gg and in 2005 it increased slightly to
155,609.49 Gg.
Steps planned to implement the Convention
To effectively implement the UNFCCC, the Government of Indonesia has made a
number of significant steps in mainstreaming climate change issues with other national
development priorities. The first of these was the issuance of National Action Plan
on Climate Change (MoE, 2007a), which describes appropriate actions to reduce
GHG emissions and adaptation activities in Indonesia. This was then followed by the
document, “National Development Planning: Indonesia responses to climate change”.
The National Planning and Development Agency (Bappenas) subsequently developed a
Climate Change Roadmap, meant to bridge the National Action Plan on Climate Change
into the 5 year Mid-Term Development Plan (RPJM) 2010-2014, and to provide inputs
for the subsequent RPJMN until 2030. The process of developing the Climate Change
Roadmap is shown in Figure 2.
POLICIES
&
REGULATIONS
EXISTING
CONDITIONS
PROGRAMME
PROJECT
FINANCING
SCHEMES
Coordination team for policy dialogue
(BAPPENAS)
ROADMAP
CAPACITY
BUILDING
OBJECTIVES
Mainstreaming
Climate Change
Into
Development
Planning
Source: Bappenas, 2008
Figure 2. Process of Development of Climate Change Roadmap
To support and accelerate the implementation of climate change programmes, the
Government of Indonesia established a number of innovative ways to link international
financial resources with national investment strategies. This Indonesian Climate Change
Trust Fund (ICTTF; Bappenas, 2009) aims to be a showcase of alternative financing for
climate change mitigation and adaptation programmes. At this stage, the ICCTF has five
specific objectives namely (i) to facilitate and accelerate investment in renewable energy
and efficiency and simultaneously reduce GHG emissions from the energy sector, (ii) to
reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and stabilize carbon stocks
through sustainable forest and peat land management, (iii) to reduce vulnerability in
coastal zones, agriculture and water sectors, (iv) to bridge the financial gaps necessary to
10
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Steps planned to implement the Convention
address climate change mitigation and adaptation and (v) to increase the effectiveness
and impact of external finance for climate change programmes.
At the initial phase, the ICCTF will be created as an “Innovative Fund”, which involves
grant funding from development partners that will help overcome barriers for early
programme deployment. At the later stages, the ICCTF may advance by establishing a
“transformation fund” mechanism, which would involve all available funding (publicprivate partnerships, loan and world capital market sources). This transformation fund
also aims to assist with market penetration. As such, at the initial phase, the ICCTF will be
dominated by public funding and at the later stages will draw predominantly on private
funds (Figure 3). The ICCTF can be accessed by sectoral ministries and other stakeholders
to support the implementation of climate change programmes. The coordination
mechanism of the ICCTF is presented in Figure 4.
Phase 1
Phase 2
Sectoral
Ministries
Sectoral
Ministries, local
governments,
Privates, NGOs,
Universities
ICCTF
innovation fund
Research &
Development
Harmonized Public
Sector Involvement
(Loan, reflow of
transformation fund,
capital market etc
ICCTF
transformation fund
Early
deployment
Demonstration
2009
Pre Market
Phase 3
2010
Market creation
Private investment
Government Funding
Figure 3. ICCTF Development (Bappenas, 2009)
11
Commercial
Deployment
2012
Market penetration
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change
Advisory Committee on
Coordination of ICCTF
Management Team
Reporting
Donors
Bilateral
Police Guidance
Multilateral
Steering
Committee
Others
(CSR etc)
Technical
Committee
Secretariat
Financial Service
Providers (Trustee)
Recipients
Sectoral
Ministries
Technical Service
Providers (permanent
and on call expert)
NGOs,
Universities,
Communities etc
Flow of Coordination
Flow of Support
Flow of Funds
Figure 4. Coordination Mechanism of ICCTF (Bappenas, 2009)
Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change
Due to its geographical location, topography and socioeconomic aspects, Indonesia is
especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and climate change. The El
Niño and La Niña phenomena (ENSO), as well as extreme meteorological conditions,
have historically resulted in serious damage that affects a wide range of different
socioeconomic sectors. A number of studies suggested that El Niño events have become
more frequent as the global temperature anomalies associated with each El Niño
continue to increase (Hansen et al., 2006; Timmerman et al. 1999). This suggests that
the increasingly high temperatures are exacerbating the extreme regional weather and
climate anomalies associated with El Niño. By assessing historical natural hazard data
from 1907-2007 (OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database 2007), it is clear that the
first climate-natural hazard categorized as global hazard occurred for the first time in
early 1950s; by the 1980s they were occurring more frequently (Figure 5). Over this
entire record, the most frequent hazard has been flooding, followed by landslides and
water or vector borne diseases, wind storms, forest fires, drought, and high tide/storm
surge (Figure 5). Furthermore, the top 20 natural hazards, causing huge economic loss
and adverse human impacts, mostly occurred after the 1980s, suggesting increasing
trend in hazards’ intensity (Figure 6).
12
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
14
120
12
100
27
8
2
e/
S
Ti
d
Dr
ou
g
ht
9
ur
ge
10
W
at
er
Fl
or
oo
Ve
ds
La
ct
or
nd
Bo
sli
rn
de
ed
s
Di
W
se
in
as
d
es
st
or
m
/C
yc
lo
ne
Fo
re
st
Fi
re
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
0
1970
0
1965
20
1960
2
1955
38
40
h
4
60
ig
6
H
8
108
80
Frequency
10
1950
Number of Climate-Related
Hazards
Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change
1,700
750
600
450
300
150
1996 1997 1997
1998 2000
2002 2004
Flood
Flood
Flood
Flood
Wild
Fires
Wild
Fires
Flood
Flood
1972 1987
Drought
1966 1972 1983 1986 1994 1996 1997 2002 2006 2007
0
Drought
Total Damage (Million USD)
Flood
Flood
Flood
Drought
Flood
Wild
Fires
Epidemic
Flood
Flood
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Drought
Number of People
being Affected (Million)
Figure 5. Number of climate hazards by year (left) and by type (right). Source: Boer and Perdinan (2008)
2007
Figure 6. The top 10 climate hazards causing huge economic loss and number of people being affected
(Boer and Perdinan, 2008)
Links between climatic variation and social development
With the increasing trend of climate hazards frequency and intensity, the most affected
group will be the poorest sections of society, which are most exposed and least resilient.
The capacity of this group to adapt to the extreme climate events and future climate
change is limited due by their limited resource availability and access to climate
information and technologies. It is likely, therefore, that their reliance on national and
local public assistance from government will increase in the future. During the 2006/07
El-Nino, many farmers in the Timor district of East Nusa Tenggara Province—one of
the most vulnerable districts to drought--experienced crop failure due to drought. As a
consequence, the major source of income for the poorest came from government aid
(‘bantuan pemerintah’) that year, particularly during dry season (Figure 7).
In addition to aid, many farmers often have to sell their domestic livestock (ternak) or
engage in informal laboring to generate additional income. At Indramayu, the drought
occurrence associated with the 2003 El-Nino caused huge rice production loss. In 2003,
the number of household that could not meet their food basic needs increased by 14%
compare to the normal years (Boer et al., 2006).
13
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change
It is clear, therefore, that improving access to a diversified set of incomes and resources
is a key method for improving climate resilience. This is closely linked with rapid poverty
reduction, which is essential to help poor and vulnerable communities improve their
resilience both to natural climate variability and to the greater stresses of human-induced
climate change in the future.
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Jul 07
Aug 07
Jun 07
Apr 07
May 07
Feb 07
Mar 07
Jan 07
Dec 06
Oct 06
Nov 06
Sep 06
Aug 06
Jul 06
Jun 06
Apr 06
May 06
Mar 06
Jan 06
Feb 06
Dec 05
Nov 05
Oct 05
Sep 05
Aug 05
Jul 05
Jun 05
-
(20,000)
(40,000)
Bantuan Pemerintah
Self Business
Sumbangan
Labor informal
Pegawai
On-Farm
Ternak
Figure 7. Source of income of farmers at Timor of East Nusa Tenggara Provice in 2006/07 El-Nino.
Source: Kieft (2007)
Observed climatic changes and predictions
Analysis of long historical climate data suggests that maximum and minimum
temperature have increased consistently (MoE, 2007). Significant decreases and/or
increases in rainfall have also detected in many part of Indonesian region, with different
significant trends in different areas. Based on data over 300 stations, with length of
records between 20 and 50 years, a significantly decreasing trend in Dec-Jan rainfall was
observed in small part of Java and Papua, and Sumatra and large part of Kalimantan
islands, whereas significant increasing trend were observed in most of Java and Eastern
Indonesia such as Bali, NTB and NTT (Figure 8). For Jun-Aug rainfall, significantly
decreasing trends were observed in most of Indonesian region with exception in
Pandeglang (West Java), Makasar (South Sulawesi), Monokwari, Sorong (Irian Jaya) and
Maluku (Figure 7).
14
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change
Monsoon onset has also changed in many part of Indonesia. Based on analysis of data
from 92 stations spread over Indonesia, monsoon onset has increasingly been delayed
in some part of Indonesia, particularly in Java; similarly, the length of the wet season has
tended to shorten, particularly in South Sumatra, Java and Kalimantan. Other studies
conducted in East Java also suggest that the number of extreme dry months in the
Brantas Catchment area has increased in the last five decades, particularly in areas near
to the coast (Aldrian and Djamil 2006). In such coastal areas, the number of extreme dry
months increased to 4 months in the last ten years and in 2002 it reached 8 months, a
level considered as the longest dry season for the whole five decades. In mountain areas,
the number of dry months is about 1-2 months over the last ten years, with maximum
number of 4 months.
Using 14 General Circulation Models (GCMs), under increasing GHG emission scenarios
(SRESA2), most of models are in agreement that in 2025 the wet seasonal rainfall (DJF)
in Java, Bali, NTB, NTT and Papua will increase, while in other parts will decrease. By
2050 and 2080, most of Indonesian regions will experience higher rainfall than current
condition with exception in northern part of Sumatra and Kalimantan (Figure 8).
Furthermore, dry season rainfall in most part of Java might decrease in 2025, increase
again in 2050, and then decrease in 2080 particularly in West Java and South Sumatra
(Figure 8). Under low emission scenarios (SRESB1), the pattern of change is similar to that
of high emission scenarios but the magnitude of change is slightly lower.
The monsoon onset more generally in Java and Bali may also delay under warming
atmosphere. It is clear that a 30-day delay in monsoon onset is very likely to occur more
frequently in 2050 than it does today and the length of the rainy season will shorten
(Naylor et al., 2007).
14
10
5
6
2
2
-2
-1
-6
-10
-4
-14
-7
-18
-22
-10
-22
-30
95
98
101
104 107
110
113
116
119
122
15
125 128
131
134
137
140
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change
14
10
5
6
2
2
-2
-1
-6
-10
-4
-14
-7
-18
-22
-10
-22
-30
95
98
101
104
107
110 113
116
119
122
125
128
131
134
137
140
mm/v
Figure 7. Trend of seasonal rainfall for Dec-Feb (above) and June-Aug (below) in Indonesia (Source:
Boer et al., 2009a)
Global warming is also very likely to increase sea levels. Historical data shows increasing
trends in mean sea level (MSL) in a number of locations. However, the rate of increase
varies with locations (Table 2). The relative sea level rise accelerates significantly in
areas where coastal erosion is removing material and where the land border has been
subsiding. The increase in MSL has also increased the problem of saltwater intrusion and
salinity.
2025
2050
2080
DJF
1.0
0.9
5
5
5
0
0
0
-5
-5
-5
-10
-10
-10
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
JJA
1.0
0.9
5
5
5
0
0
0
-5
-5
-5
-10
-10
-10
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Figure 8. Trend of wet seasonal (December-February) and dry seasonal (June-August) rainfall under
high emission scenarios (SRESA2). Note: Dark Red (indicator 1) means that all GCM models
are in agreement to suggest the seasonal rainfall will decrease and dark blue (Indicator 0)
means that all models are in agreement to suggest the seasonal rainfall will increase (Boer
et al., 2009a).
16
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change
Table 2. Relative sea level rise in a number of observation stations
Stations Location
Cilacap
Belawan
Jakarta
Semarang
Surabaya
Sumatra
Panjang Lampung
Sea Level Rise (mm/year)
1.30
7.83
4.38
7.00
9.37
5.00
1.00
5.47
4.15
Source
Hadikusuma, 1993
ITB, 1990
ITB, 1990
Based on data from 1984-20061
ITB, 1990
Based on data from 1984-2006
Based on data from 1984-2006
ITB, 1990
P3O-LIPI, 1991
Sector-wise impacts and adaptation measures
Agriculture and Fisheries. Changes in spatial rainfall patterns, the length of the wet
season and inter-seasonal variability will have serious implications for many sectors. In
the agriculture sector, the current cropping pattern may no longer be the most effective
food production system. At present, the pattern used in most of the rice growing areas
of Indonesia is rice-rice. The second planting depends heavily on irrigation water. Under
extreme drought years, the availability of irrigation water is very limited, usually leading
to major rice production losses. Under a changing climate, the occurrence of extreme
climate events (drought) will be more frequent than the current climate and there is
a possibility that the dry season will persist for longer periods. Therefore, keeping this
cropping pattern in the future may expose Indonesian farmers to more frequent crop
failures. Thus, in areas where the pattern of rainfall changes in this direction, farmers
should consider alter their cropping pattern from rice-rice to rice-non rice. If the ricerice pattern is maintained, improvement of water storage and irrigation facilities will be
required for compensating the decreased in June July August rainfall. More efforts to
create new short maturing rice varieties should also be in place to anticipate the shorter
wet season.
Furthermore, analysis of climate change impacts in rice production in Java suggested
that production between 2025 and 2050 is likely to decrease by about 1.8 and 3.6 million
ton from the current production level respectively (Boer et al., 2009b). By including the
impact of rice field conversion to non-agriculture lands in Java, i.e., taking 0.77% of
land out of production per annum, the production loss in 2025 and 2050 will increase
to 5.2 and 13.0 million ton respectively. Thus, the impact of rice field conversion will be
much higher than the impact of climate change. To compensate this loss, new rice areas
of around 1.5 and 3.5 million ha will be needed in 2025 and 2050 respectively outside
Java. Alternatively, the loss can be compensated by increasing rice productivity by about
20% and 50% from the current levels. To achieve this, breeding technology would have
to be able to increase rice productivity by about 1 t/ha and 2.5 t/ha from the current
productivity (~5 t/ha).
1 The derived water levels are a combination of changes in the sea level and the vertical land motion at the location of the gauge. Therefore, the trends
derived are relative MSL trends and can be considered valid only for a region near the gauge with uniform vertical land motion.
17
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change
The increase in temperature and the changes in rainfall pattern and length of seasons
may also trigger the development of crop pests and diseases. For example, BPH (Brown
Plant Hopper) population normally increases when rainfall in the transitional season
increases compared to normal. The changes in cropping patterns as part of adaptation
efforts to climate change may also alter crop pests and diseases problems in the regions.
Moreover, invasion of new species of pests and diseases may well occur in a changing
climate, and the change in temperature and rainfall may also change the domination
of certain crop pest and diseases (Wiyono, 2007). Field observations in a number Java
districts, such as Indramayu, Magelang, Semarang, Boyolali, Kulonprogo, and Ciamis,
provide the evidence of this phenomena (see section 3.3).
A rapid assessment conducted by Parry et al. (1992) in a number of locations in Indonesia
suggested that sea level rise due to global warming will also reduce local rice supply in
Krawang and Subang districts by about 300,000 tons. Similarly, maize output would likely
be reduced by 10,000 tons--about half of this due to inundation. Sea-level rise would also
be likely to affect fish and prawn production. The loss is estimated at over 7000 tons and
4000 tons respectively (valued at over USD 0.5m). In the lower Citarum Basin sea-level rise
could result in the inundation of about 26,000 ha of ponds and 10,000 ha of crop land. This
could result in the loss of 15 000 tons of fish, shrimp and prawns and about 940 000 ton
of rice. Parry et al. stated that the socio-economic implications of this transition in Subang
District alone could be the loss of employment for about 43 000 farm laborers. In addition
more than 81 000 farmers would have to look for other sources of income due to the
inundation of their rice fields or prawn and fish farms due to sea-level rise.
The increase in sea temperature will also cause serious problems for the coral ecosystems.
Wetland International (Burke et al., 2002) reported that the 1997 El-Niño damaged
about 18% of the coral ecosystems in South East Asia. In Indonesia, coral bleaching was
observed in many places such as in the eastern part of Sumatra, Java, Bali, and Lombok.
In ‘thousands islands’ (north of the Jakarta coast), about 90-95% of the corals located 25
m below sea surface have been bleached.
Coastal and Outer Islands. The increase in sea level by about 25 to 50 cm in 2050
and 2100 as projected by many models will inundate many parts of the coastal cities
of Indonesia. Land subsidence will exacerbate this, increasing the total area that will
be inundated permanently. Between 25% and 50% of area in a number of sub-districts
in coastal cities such as Semarang, Surabaya, Jakarta and Medan will be under water
permanently. Figures 9 and 10 illustrate this combined forcing in two coastal cities
(Surabaya and Semarang).
The increase of sea level rise may also inundate the outer islands of the country, and
this will affect the area of Indonesian territory. The analysis suggests that an increase of
sea level of up to 50 cm will not inundate the outer islands of Indonesia permanently.
However, in combination with tidal patterns in the region, about five outer islands will
temporarily inundate. These islands include Alor (next to Timor Leste), Pelampong (next
to Singapura), Senua (next to Malaysia), Simuk and Sinyaunyau (next to India).
18
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change
Water Resources. At present, the water balance in most of Java and the eastern
islands of Indonesia is already in deficit for most of year (Figure 11). With such conditions,
increasing planting in these islands is not possible, further restricting options for
increasing rice production outlined above. Under changing a climate, more districts will
have water scarcity problems (Heriensyah et al., 2009). A key need is the development of
new initiatives to anticipate the scarcity of water due to climate change and increases on
water demand, especially in urban areas where populations are increasing and industrial
activities are taking place. Inter-basin transfer of water may be one of the potential
options to anticipate the scarcity of water in the future. In Indonesia many basins
have surplus water resources, even in the ultimate stage of development, while others
face serious shortages, especially during extreme drought years. Creation of storages
and inter-basin transfer of water from surplus to deficit regions (such as in West Nusa
Tenggara) could therefore be an option for achieving more equitable distribution of
resources and their optimal utilization.
Forests. Decreasing dry season rainfall and shortening length of wet season will
increase the risk of forest fire. Two islands which are very prone to fire are Sumatra and
Kalimantan. Based on hotspot density pattern, two provinces that have very high hotspot
density are Riau Province and Central Kalimantan (Figure 12). Hotspot densities in these
two islands increased rapidly when dry season rainfall decreases or the length of dry
season extends, particularly during El Nino years. Figure 13 shows that hotspot density
increases rapidly as the monthly rainfall during the dry season decreases by more than
50 mm below normal (long term average).
Flooded Area (ha) by subdistrict with sea level rise of
Sub-District
Asemrowo
Benowo
Gunung Anyar
Kenjeran
Krembangan
Mulyorejo
Pabean Cantikan
Rungkut
Semampir
Sukolilo
25
16
4
199
18
38
44
1
120
1
1175
50
21
5
219
22
39
58
1
132
2
1242
Figure 9. Impact of sea level rise of coastal city of Surabaya (Hariati et al., 2009)
19
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change
Rate of land
subsidence
in Semarang
based on
measurement
is between 1-8
cm per year
Flooded Area (ha) by sub-district with
sea level rise of and land subsidence
Sub-District
Genuk
Tugu
Semarang Barat
Semarang Utara
Sayung
District
Semarang
Semarang
Semarang
Semarang
Demak
Total Area
25 cm
251
53
84
123
73
584
LS+25 cm
563
71
171
288
228
850
Figure 10. Impact of sea level rise of coastal city of Semarang (Hariati et al., 2009)
Banda Aceh
Medan
Pontianak
Menado
Jayapura
Padang
Bengkulu
0
Number of water
deficit month
JAKARTA
Ambon
Ujung Pandang
Mataram
12
Kupang
Figure 11. Current status of water balance by River Area Unit (SWS; Heriensyah et al. 2009)
20
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change
120
Hot Spot Density
Hot Spot Density
120
100
80
60
40
20
100
80
Pattern 2 (very
low Hot Spot)
60
40
20
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Agt
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Agt
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
0
Pattern 6
Pattern 3
Hot Spot Density
120
100
80
60
40
20
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Agt
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
0
100
60
40
20
0
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Agt
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
Pattern 5
Hot Spot Density
120
80
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Agt
Sep
Okt
Nov
Des
Pattern 1
Pattern 2
Pattern 3
Pattern 4
Pattern 5
Pattern 6
120
Hot Spot Density
Pattern 4
Pattern 1
Figure 12. Classification of region based hotspot density pattern (Ardiansyah and Boer, 2009)
0.8
Pattern 1
Pattern 2
Pattern 3
Pattern 4
Pattern 5
Pattern 6
0.7
Hot Spot Density
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-250 -200 -150 -100 -50
0
50 100 150 200 250
Rainfall Anomaly (mm)
Figure 13. Relationship between monthly rainfall anomaly and hotspot density (Ardiansyah and Boer, 2009)
21
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change
40
350
35
300
30
250
25
200
20
150
15
100
10
50
5
0
Number of affected
Incidence Rate per 100.000
Health. Extreme weather related to ENSO also contributes to the outbreak of human
diseases such as malaria, dengue, diarrhea, cholera and other vector borne diseases.
Dengue cases were found to increase significantly in La-Niña years (Figure 14) when
seasonal rainfall levels increased above average. A significant upward trend in the
number of dengue cases was also observed in Java, especially in large cities (Figure 15).
In other cities, such as Dhaka (Bangladesh), cholera cases correspond significantly to
local maxima in ENSO, and this climate phenomenon accounts for over 70% of disease
variance (Rodo et al., 2002). In Africa also, malaria disease outbreaks were triggered
by the occurrence of above normal rainfall (Moji et al., 2002). Moreover, the risk of
transmission of dengue and malaria under changing climate may well increase as water
scarcity increases in urban areas (Hidayati et al., 2009).
68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
0
Figure 14. Number of incidence rate of dengue histogram and of affected cities and districts line in
Indonesia (Source: Ministry of Health). Note: 1973, 1988 and 1998 are La-Niña years.
Between -6 and -3
Between -3 and 0
Between 0 and 3
Between 3 and 6
Between 6 and 9
Between 9 and 12
Between 12 and 15
Between 15 and 18
Between 18 and 21
Between 21 and 24
Figure 15. Annual trend of dengue incidence rate in districts in Java (cases/100,000 people/year; MoE, 2007b).
22
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Mitigate Climate Change
Measures to Mitigate Climate Change
The Government of Indonesia has voluntarily committed to actively participate in
undertaking appropriate mitigation actions (NAMA). The President of the Republic of
Indonesia has stated that Indonesia would reduce its emissions by 26% from the baseline
in 2020. Support from developed countries would enable further reductions of up to 41%
by 2050. Projections of emissions under Business as Usual (BAU) scenarios have also been
developed for all sectors.
Energy Sector. There are several versions of national energy supply development
projections presented in official documents. Energy supply projections without any
energy conservation effort (BAU) and with energy conservation policies (RIKEN)
have been estimated by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM). Both
projections have been stated in the Blueprint of National Energy Management (PEN)
2005 and Energy Outlook 2006 – 2030 (Table 3). Projection of energy supply under BAU
in the Energy Outlook 2006-2030 is similar with BAU under the PEN, with the inclusion
of energy conservation, the power plant crash programme, kerosene to LPG substitution,
mandatory biofuel usage. Alternative non-BAU “mitigation” scenarios include the
IGCC, solar energy, waste incinerator, CBM, liquefied coal. The resulting CO2 emission
projection under PEN and Energy outlook 2006-2030 is presented in Figure 16 and 17.
With the above scenarios, Indonesia could reduce the emission from energy sector in
2020 by between 35% and 40% from BAU-PEN.
Table 3. Projection of energy supply under PEN and Energy Outlook 2006-2030 (MMBOE)
PEN
Energy
Outlook
20062030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
BAU
749
961
1397
2034
3221
5103
RIKEN
708
898
1226
1562
2267
3258
PERPRES
708
898
1152
1536
2149
3128
BAU*
772
899
1186
1565
2065
2724
Alternative
772
899
1181
1550
2036
2673
Assumption
Crude oil price
base USD 52/
barrel
Crude oil price
base USD 80/
barrel
A number of mitigation options being considered to be implemented as defined in the
scenarios are presented in Table 4.
23
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Mitigate Climate Change
Liq-Coal
2,500
Millions tCO2
CBM
Coal
2,000
Natural Gas
Oil
1,500
1,000
500
2005
2010
2015
2020
PerpresOPT
RIKEN
BAU
PerpresOPT
RIKEN
BAU
PerpresOPT
RIKEN
BAU
PerpresOPT
RIKEN
BAU
PerpresOPT
RIKEN
BAU
-
2025
Figure 16. Projection of emission under PEN (Dewi et al., 2009a)
2,500
Million Ton CO2
2,000
1,500
Liq-Coal
CBM
1,000
Coal
Natural Gas
500
Oil
BAU ALT
2000
BAU ALT BAU ALT BAU ALT
2005
2010
2015
BAU ALT BAU ALT
2020
2025
Figure 17. Projection of CO2 emission under Energy outlook 2006-2030 (Dewi et al., 2009a)
24
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Mitigate Climate Change
Table 4. Selected mitigation options
Sector
Sub Sector
Mitigation Options
Energy
Supply
Power
generation
a. Include less GHG emission intensive energy systems
not selected in the BAU, such as power from waste
(PLTSA incinerator, landfill gas (LFG), liquid and solid
biomass waste, etc), solar, wind, etc.
b. Increase the share of new-renewable energy that has
been included in BAU but still below the level of
PERPRESS target, such as geothermal and
c. Increase the use of efficient technology in power
plants, i.e circulated coal fluidized bed combustion
(CFBC) coal integrated gasification combined cycle
(IGCC), gas combined cycle, combined heat and power,
d. Develop technology that is appropriated to use with low
GHG emissions,
e. Apply CCS technology for large coal power plants
Oil and gas
production
and refineries
Energy
Transportation
End User
a. Gas flaring and venting reduction
a. Increase biofuel development efforts for personal vehicles
b. Increase the use of compressed natural gas and LPG in
transport
c. Introduce fuel cell and electric cars/motorcycles
d. Promote mass rapid transport (MRT)
e. Introduce traffic management, Intelligent Transport Systems
Industry
a. Increase the use of energy efficient equipment or
technology (more efficient conversion process, more
efficient combustion system, variable speed electric
motors, etc)
b. Use of more efficient material conversion process
c. Use of recycled materials, etc
d. Introduce co-processing or co-firing technology
Residential and
commercial
end uses
The potential for GHG mitigation through energy
conservation and fuel switching have been included in the BAU
and therefore not considered as mitigation options
Source: Dewi et al., (2009a)
25
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Mitigate Climate Change
Forestry. Projection of carbon stock changes in the living biomass from 1990 to 2030
has been developed based on historical trend of deforestation and land rehabilitation
data (Boer, 2001). Without mitigation efforts, the carbon stock in the living biomass will
continue to decrease until 2030. To increase the carbon stock back to a level of 1990,
the rate of land rehabilitation through reforestation, afforestation, timber plantation and
biomass energy plantation, and restoration of production forest through enrichment
planting should be increased by 68% and 35% respectively. Illegal logging should be
reduced by 43% and the rate of shifting cultivation should be reduced by 17% from
historical levels. The land use change pattern and carbon stock change under the two
scenarios are presented in Table 5 and Figure 18.
Table 5. Changes in land use under three scenarios (‘000 ha)
Projection
Timber Plantation
Reforestation
1997-2000
200
2001-2010
2011-2020
Baseline
150
150
2021-2030
110
1
40
(40%)
50
(40%)
100
(80%)
100
(80%)
Afforestation1
126
(70%)
150
(70%)
200
(90%)
250
(90%)
0
250
0
250
0
300
0
350
Biolelectricity
Enhanced Natural Regeneration
Reduced Impact Logging
Transmigration
Agricultural Plantation
Shifting cultivation
Forest Fires
Illegal Logging
Timber Plantation
Reforestation1
0
0
0
0
150
250
235
60
500
100
250
235
120
400
50
300
175
120
300
25
300
120
120
200
Mitigation Scenario
350
390
300
200
40
(40%)
120
(80%)
200
(80%)
200
(80%)
126
(70%)
200
(90%)
250
(90%)
250
(90%)
Biolelectricity
Enhanced Natural Regeneration
Reduced Impact Logging
Transmigration
Agricultural Plantation
Shifting cultivation
Forest Fires
0
250
0
150
250
235
60
50
300
200
100
350
175
90
50
400
50
25
350
130
90
0
600
50
0
350
90
90
Illegal Logging
500
200
100
0
Afforestation1
1Values in parenthesis refer to the survival rate. Source: Boer (2001)
26
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Mitigate Climate Change
2030
2026
2022
2018
2014
2010
2006
2002
1998
1994
1990
Carbon Pool (million ton)
To strengthen the role of the
land use and forestry sector in
19000
Baseline
mitigating climate change, the
Mitigation
Government of Indonesia has set
18500
up ambitious targets for land and
18000
forest rehabilitation programmes.
All forest concession companies
17500
are encouraged to adopt
improved silviculture systems,
17000
such as reduced impact logging
and intensive silviculture
16500
(SILIN). With such an ambitious
16000
programme, Indonesia will turn
into a net GHG sink country in
the next 10 years. However, to
Figure 18. Carbon stock change under baseline and
achieve such ambitious targets,
mitigation scenarios (Boer, 2001). Note: In this
Indonesia will require financial
analysis carbon loss from peat soil was not
support, technology transfer
estimated
and capacity building. The rate
of programme implementation
along with their corresponding CO2 sequestration is presented in Table 6.
Some potential funding sources being targeted by the Government of Indonesia to
achieve such targets include (Wibowo and Boer, 2009):
• REDD Fund. Current progress on pilot activities has shown broad interest from donor
organizations and countries, as well as the private sectors to implement REDD pilots in
some areas of Indonesia (Aceh, Papua, and Kalimantan).
• CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) /Kyoto mechanism. A potential funding source
for Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) in the future.
• Private investment. Favorable conditions are needed to attract private investment from
overseas, and under current conditions more work needs to be done for Indonesia to
attract such investments.
• Grants through bilateral channel such as the Overseas Development Assistance (ODA).
• Grants through multilateral channel: World Bank, ITTO (International Tropical Timber
Organization), GEF (Global Environment Facility), GM (Global Mechanism), FAO (Food
and Agricultural Organization).
• DNS (Debt for Nature Swaps): Under the Tropical Forest Conservation Act of the USA,
Indonesia may apply for debt reduction and use the money for forest conservation
activities.
• Adaptation Fund under the Kyoto mechanism. Developing countries (G77+China)
in the UNFCCC negotiation process have proposed an adaptation fund for forest
rehabilitation and forest conservation.
• GFF (Global Forest Fund). The mechanism has been proposed within UNFF (United
Nations Forum on Forest), and many foresters expect that the mechanism will support
the effort toward Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) in the future.
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Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Mitigate Climate Change
Table 6. Forestry sector programme related to GHG mitigation (Source: Masripatin et al., 2009a;
Masripatin et al., 2009b)
Programme
Cumulative Area (million Ha) and
CO2 Absorbed/Stored (million ton/ha)
2007-2009
2010-2014
2014-2020
2021-2025
2025-2030
HTI
3.6
(105.5)
7.5
(219.75)
8.4
(246.12)
9.3
(272.8)
9.7
(284.2)
HTR
3.6
(105.5)
5.6
(164.1)
7.3
(213.9)
9.0
(263.7)
9.8
(287.1)
HR
2.0
(58.6)
4.6
(134.8)
6.3
(184.6)
8
(234.4)
8
(234.4)
Gerhan
1.68
Intensive
Silviculture
(Silin)
0.25
0.75
1.50
2.00
2.50
Planting of 1
million trees
0.003
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Protection Forest
0.5
(373.5)
1.6
(2347.2)
3.3
(4841.1)
5.0
(7335.0)
7.6
(11149.2)
Conservation
Forest
0,5
(733,5)
2,5
(3667.5)
3.8
(5574.6)
5.0
(7335.0)
6.3
(9242.1)
Sink Enhancement
Forest Plantation
Forest
Rehabilitation
Emission Reduction:
Management and Improvement of Natural Forest
Production
Forest (HPH)
23.12
(3.39)
23.12
(3.39)
23.12
(3.39)
23.12
(3.39)
23.12
(3.39)
Protection Forest
13.39
(19643.1)
15.15
(22225.0)
17.27
(25335.1)
19.39
(28445.1)
21.77
(31936.5)
Conservation
Forest
10.24
(15022.1)
16.16
(23706.7)
18.28
(26816.7)
20.39
(29912.1)
20.64
(30278.8)
Assumptions: (i) Forest Plantation (HTI, HTR, HR) with 10 year rotation, absorbs carbon of about 8 ton/ha/year or ~29,3 ton CO2/ha/
year; (ii) Production forest, store carbon about 200 ton/ha (~736 ton CO2 per ha); (iii) Undisturbed forest in protection forests and
conservation forests, store carbon about 400 ton/ha (~1467 ton CO2 per ha); (iv) Forest Rehabilitation in conservation and protection
forests (n.a for carbon absorbed/stored because trees planted in these area can be scattered or in patches within the defined area and
no data available yet)
In respect of the relationship between REDD and SFM, some countries have made
commitments to support Indonesia. UNREDD and FCPF, for example, have made
commitments to support Indonesia to develop an effective and accountable framework
for REDD, together with other key stakeholders such as Australia, UK, Germany, Japan
and Korea. Table 7 presents some examples of such international for conducting forestry
mitigation projects.
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Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Mitigate Climate Change
Table 7. Select support programmes by international agencies for Indonesia (Wibowo and Boer, 2009)
Title
Cooperation to Support Forest Governance and Multistakeholders
Forestry Programme
Duration
2007-2010
Objective
1. Support governance reforms to reduce and eventually eliminate
illegal logging and its associated timber trade, with a particular
focus on support to negotiation and implementation of the EUGoI FLEGT VPA and other international arrangements;
.2. Through a multistakeholder approach, build capacity of
central and local government and civil society, support
partnerships between government and civil society, promote
policy analysis and development, and support poverty reduction
through more equitable and sustainable management of natural
resources, with a particular focus on the rights and opportunities
through community forestry for disadvantaged and
women’s groups;
3. Explore the opportunities for governance reforms that are
necessary for Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and
Degradation (REDD).
Title
Financial Cooperation for Climate Change and REDD Issue; Title:
Forestry-Climate Change Project in Central and East Kalimantan (FCCP)
Duration
7 years, started 2009
Objective
Overal Objective:
To support Indonesia with the reduction of Green House Gases (GHG)
emission from deforestation and degradation.
Specific Objective:
1. To support policy priorities of Ministry of Forestry in REDD
2. To support the implementation of mechanism related to avoiding
deforestation by development of pilot projects in Indonesia with the
involvement of local communities in sustainable forest management
Title
Technical Cooperation / TC
Supporting implementation of Ministry of Forestry’s strategic plan
Duration
3 years, Started mid 2008
Objective
To implement the Strategic Plan which is integrated and synergized with
other sector planning, in particular provincial and districts programme
Title
Technical Cooperation Forestry Programme in Implementing The Heart
of Borneo Initiative (Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei Darussalam)
Duration
3 years, Started mid 2008
Objective
1. To establish trilateral, national and local (states, provincial, and
district) institutional arrangement to support the implementation
of the HoB Programme
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Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Mitigate Climate Change
2. To develop mechanisms, including inter alia, action plan at all levels,
on the implementation of HoB programme.
3. To strengthen capacity of stakeholders related to the implementation
of HoB programmes.
Title
Kalimantan Forests and Climate Partnership
Duration
2007-2012
Objective
The goal of the programme is to support GOI efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with deforestation in Indonesia, through
action to reduce rates of deforestation, support reforestation and promote sustainable forest management, delivering improvements in rural
livelihoods and environmental benefits.
Title
The United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions
from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (UNREDD Programme)
Duration
2009-2011
Objective
A FAO, UNDP and UNEP collaboration, UN-REDD in Indonesia aims to:
1. Strengthen multi-stakeholder participation and consensus at
national level
2. Successfully demonstrate the establishment of REL, MRV and fair
payment systems based on the national REDD architecture
3. Through demonstration activities and other support, build capacity
to implement REDD at decentralized levels
Title
Korea-Indonesia Joint Programme on Adaptation and Mitigation of
Climate Change in Forestry through A/R CDM and other Related Mechanisms
Duration
2008-2012
Objective
1. Analyze REDD applications and to acquire a framework in carbon
credits by preventing forest conversion as a post-2012 preparative
measure
2. Implement capacity building programmes including expert
exchange and training courses
3. Acquire cost-effective potential A/R CDM sites and to establish
foundation for carbon credits in preparation of post-2012 emission
commitments
30
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Mitigate Climate Change
Agriculture Sector. The main sources of CH4 emissions from the agriculture sector
are rice fields and livestock. Projections of emissions under these two sub-sectors were
developed using a number of assumptions to model the impacts of different policy
options. The assumptions included consideration of historical conditions and population
growth trend.
Rice Paddy1,2
To reduce emissions from the rate under BAU, six mitigation scenarios were proposed as
shown in Table 8 (S1-S6). In the mitigation scenarios, the rice variety used was changed
from Cisadane to IR64. In 2030, total rice paddy area that applied the mitigation
technologies are all less than 30%--namely 21% for S1, 5% for S2, 15% for S3, 14%
for S4, 6% for S5 and 1.6% for S6. Using these assumptions, it was found that total
methane emission in 2030 under BAU and BAU2 would be about 38.8 and 42.4 Tg
CO2e respectively. The most effective mitigation scenario would be the adoption of less
methane-emission varieties (Figure 19). Adoption of new less-methane emitting varieties
would drop the rate of methane emission from BAU by about 20%.
Table 8. Mitigation Scenarios for reducing methane emission from rice paddy
Rate of the technology adoption
Potential
(Percent of potential applicability area)
applicability (%) 2005* 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Scenario
Mitigation Technology
S0
Flooded with inorganic fertilizer
(according to Kepmentan)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
S1
Intermittent irrigation (including
SRI, PTT)
70
3
5
10
20
25
30
100
0
0
1
2
3
5
30
20
25
30
40
45
50
70
3
5
8
10
15
20
30
3
5
8
10
15
20
30
0
0
1
2
4
6
S2
S3
S4
S5
S6
Fertilizer supplement (ZA and
urea brisket)
Adoption of less methane
emitting-varieties*
Intermittent + Fertilizer
Supplement (Combine S1 & S2)
Intermittent + Fertilizer
Supplement (Combine S1, S2
& S2)
S5 + iron meterial/silica
Note: Total rice paddy area was assumed to be about 7.8 million ha. Potential applicability means that total area applicable for the
mitigation technologies. The remaining areas which do not use the mitigation technologies still use the baseline technologies. Less
methane emitting-varieties include Ciherang, Cisantana, Tukad Belian and Way Apo Buru (Setyanto et al., 2009)
1 BAU1: All irrigated rice fields are continuously flooded and applied inorganic fertilizers with Cisadane variety. Area of irrigated rice fields in Java will
not change considering the adoption of the regulation on sustainable agriculture land, although outside Java rice fields may increase at a rate of 50
thousand ha per year. The planting index is assumed to be 2.4 if the source of irrigation is from reservoirs and 1.4 if from other sources. Other assumptions are that the variety being used is Cisadane.
2 BAU2: Similar to BAU1 but the rice paddy area in Java is assumed to be converted to non-rice paddy area with a rate of about 50 thousand ha per
year and outside Java it will increase at a rate of about 150 thousand ha per year.
31
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Mitigate Climate Change
40000
38000
BAU1
BAU1-S1
BAU1-S2
BAU1-S3
BAU1-S4
BAU1-S5
BAU1-S6
42000
Emisi Metan (Gg CO2e
Emisi Metan (Gg CO2e)
42000
36000
34000
32000
30000
2000
2010
2020
2030
40000
38000
36000
BAU2
BAU2-S1
BAU2-S2
BAU2-S3
BAU2-S4
BAU2-S5
BAU2-S6
34000
32000
30000
2000
2010
2020
2030
Figure 19. The projection of methane emissions from rice paddies under the baseline and mitigation
scenarios (Setyanto et al., 2009). See the footnotes on the page above for descriptions of
BAU1 and BAU2.
Livestock
For livestock, the projection of emissions follows the projection of population growth.
The annual livestock population growth was assumed to follow the historical population
growth rate, i.e., beef cattle and dairy cattle 5%, broiler and layer 3%, buffalo, sheep,
goat, pig and local chicken 2%, horse and duck 1%. With this growth rate, the domestic
demand for these animals will not been fully met, meaning that Indonesia may still need
to import meat and milk.
Mitigation technologies that have been identified for this sub-sector are the following:
1. Feeding Quality Improvement. Currently, beef and dairy cattle feeding practices
are less efficient (higher losses of feed energy in form of methane and lesser amounts
of energy stored in animal product). Utilization of low digestible feed, higher
proportion of forage and low quality pasture (eastern part of Indonesia) are some
of the main problems. Increasing conversions of feeds energy to animal product will
not only decrease methane emission but also benefit to the farmer. Feeding quality
improvement programmes of beef and dairy cattle will reduce the methane emission
coefficient by up to 20%. Some possible activities are:
a. Introduction of high quality local feed sources such as legume and high quality
grass as well as utilization of agriculture byproducts.
b. Improvement of low quality byproduct using physical, chemical or biological
pretreatment.
c. Increase concentrate to forage ratio.
d. Increase animal productivity by intensifying production (feeding as required).
The equal amount of animal product will be produced by less animal numbers.
32
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Mitigate Climate Change
2. Supplementation. Supplementation of minerals in form of feed supplement blocks
(FBS) has been tested on a limited scale by smallholder farmers. One study reported
that mineral supplements increased animal productivity, reducing methane formation
by up to 15% (Suryahadi et al., 2007). Mineral supplementation programmes have also
advantages for their simplicity of application and higher achievement (less risk of
failure).
3. Long-term Breeding Programme. Improvement of animal breeding could mitigate
up to 10% of methane emission from livestock. The improvement could be achieved
through appropriate long-term breeding programmes. The animal will be breed for
its adaptation to climate, higher productivity and less methanogenic bacteria/methane
production. A potential breeding programme would need high investment and would
give long-term return rates, thus likely requiring government support.
4. Bio-energy. Utilization of animal sewage as bio-energy is a clear option because of its
relevance to national government programmes. Currently, the Indonesian government
is trying to incentivize the development of renewable and environmentally-friendly
energy sources. Bio-energy from animal sewage could reduce methane emissions
up to 80% compared to untreated sewage. Furthermore, the bi-product sludge of
Table 9. Projected level of adoption of mitigation technology for livestock
No. Mitigation Options
Percentage of animal population applying the option*
1.
Supplementation
Beef cattle 1% and Dairy Cattle 3% of population per year.
2.
Improvement feeding practices Beef cattle 2% and Dairy Cattle 5% of population per year.
3.
Manure management/Biogas
Beef cattle 1% and Dairy Cattle 1% of population per year.
4.
Long term breeding
programme
Dairy Cattle 1% of population per year;
5.
Tree legume introduction
Dairy Cattle 1% of population per year;
the digester can be utilized as
an organic fertilizer, which has high
economic value. This programme has
disadvantages, however, because of
the significant investment needs
from the investments for digester
technology deployment.
Methan Emission (Ton/Year)
1,800
With the adoption of these options (Table
9) the rate of CH4 emission from this subsector would reduce slightly (Figure 20).
1,600
1,400
1,200
BASE LINE
Supplemetation
Improvement feeding practices
Manure management
Breeding programme
Tree legumes introduction
1,000
800
600
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Figure 20. Projection of methane emission from
livestock (Suryahadi et al., 2009)
33
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Measures to Mitigate Climate Change
Other Information
Waste Sector. Municipal solid waste landfill is the most significant GHG emission
source in this sector. Other major sources are domestic waste water (latrine, septic tank,
and centralized off-site plants) and industrial waste water (primarily centralized off-site
waste water plants). Regarding these GHG emission sources, mitigation of GHG emissions
from domestic solid waste could primarily be achieved through waste reduction.
One of the options is 3R (Reduce · Reuse · Recycle) which can reduce waste in large
volumes. Future scenarios of the national strategic plan, developed by the Public Work
Department, estimate that waste can be reduced by 20% in 2010.
In addition to 3R, mitigation options for reducing GHG emissions from municipal solid
waste are to either introduce incinerators in order to replace all open burning systems
or to manage all waste under anaerobic conditions. According to the MDGs target, 80%
of the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) in urban areas and 50% of the MSW in rural areas
should be transported to the final disposal site by 2015.
The Government of Indonesia, through Solid Waste Management Law No 18/2008,
is attempting to improve waste management by converting open dumping areas
to sanitary(controlled) landfills. The development of regional landfills are priority
programmes with national financial support as an initial investment. Reducing GHG
emissions from solid waste through LFG (Landfill Gas) programmes have also been
introduced. At present the implementation of LFGs are all under CDM projects.
Based on these policy options, the level of GHG emissions from the waste sector can be
reduced significantly from the baseline condition (Figure 21).
Rate of emission (t CH4 per year)
14,000
12,000
BAU
10,000
3R Compost
8,000
3R Compost
CDM
6,000
3R Compost
New SWDS
(SWMLaw)
4,000
2,000
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Figure 21. Projection of CH4 emissions from waste sector under BAU and mitigatin scenarios
(Dewi et al., 2009b)
34
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Other Information
Other Information
The role of NGOs is considerable in the implementation of adaptation and mitigation
activities with local communities. At present there are a number of NGOs working in the
area mitigation. From the SGP-GEF UNDP programme and authors’ experiences, it has 18
NGOs have been identified as working on climate change mitigation projects that focus
on energy and waste. Most of the NGOs are working in Java island (Figure 22).
10
Number of NGOs
8
6
4
2
Other Province
Bali
South East Sulawesi
Central Kalimantan
South Sumatera
Riau
North Sulawesi
West Nusa Tenggara
South Kalimantan
West Kalimantan
Papua
Central Sulawesi
South Sulawesi
Lampung, Sumatera
East Kalimantan
East Java
Central Java
West Java
DKI Jakarta, Java
Aceh
0
Province
Figure 22. Number of NGOs working in the area of climate change mitigation activities on energy
and waste sector (Boer et al., 2008)
In general, NGOs can play the role of implementer and facilitator of CDM projects as well
as voluntary carbon projects. Several NGOs, especially those with technical competency,
could act as CDM or voluntary carbon project developers. NGOs who have technical
expertise on digester construction, such as BORDA (Bremen Overseas Research and
Development Association) and its partners BaliFokus and LPTP (Lembaga Pengembangan
Teknologi Pedesaan), or SNV (Dutch NGO) in Nepal, can provide technical assistance for
designing the necessary infrastructure.
NGOs also receive funds from developed countries to implement projects and facilitate
community awareness regarding waste reduction and emissions. Some funds are grants
35
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Barriers, and Related Financial, Technical and Capacity Needs
from the German or Dutch Governments, often distributed through development aid
programmes and INGOs (International NGOs).
Barriers, and Related Financial, Technical and Capacity Needs
The main barriers for the implementation of mitigation measures are the lack of
available technology, low human resource capabilities in providing and operating such
technologies, scarce government budget, and lack of information access. However, there
are various options available to overcome these issues. The abundance of resources for
renewable energy in Indonesia and various government efforts, such as programmes
and policies on the implementation of renewable energy and energy efficiency
programmes, will accelerate the implementation of mitigation activities. In addition, the
emergence and rapid growth of the carbon market may also accelerate the adoption
and implementation of mitigation technologies that are not economically feasible and/
or facing certain barriers. Nevertheless, to upscale the implementation of climate change
programmes additional financial and capacity support will be necessary:
Financial Needs. Bappenas along with sectoral ministries has identified a number
of climate change adaptation and mitigation programmes. There are about 54 climate
change projects (26 adaptation, 18 mitigation and 8 integrated adaptation and
mitigation projects) being proposed for implementation in the next five years (up to
2012). The programmes require about 897 million USD.
Technical and Capacity Needs. The agriculture sector has been considered the most
vulnerable sector to climate change. In order to increase the resilience of this sector to
climate change, a number of programmes are being considered:
• Development and implementation of a comprehensive communications strategy to
increase the capacity of farmers to use climate information in managing their
farming system and agribusiness activities (e.g. climate field school)
• Development and implementation of a comprehensive communications strategy
to raise awareness of climate change impacts and the advantages of early attention to
adaptation, including partnerships with key national professional and interest groups
to develop best practice networks.
• Institutionalize the use of climate (forecast) information in managing current and
future climate risks.
• Develop and promote tools for adaptation planning tailored to user’s requirements
that include:
- Decision-support tools such as methods for assessing the costs and benefits of
adaptation strategies, and guides for risk management;
- methods for understanding social impacts;
36
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Barriers, and Related Financial, Technical and Capacity Needs
- a national ‘one stop shop’ website where decision-makers and their advisers can
access information about climate projections, likely climate change impacts, tools,
guides and approaches to adaptation planning.
To accelerate the development of mitigation and adaptation technologies, the
Government of Indonesia has established the Research Consortium on Climate
Variability and Climate Change. This consortium will play role in (i) coordinating each
sector’s adaptation research resources to more effectively support climate change
decision-making, including by brokering research partnerships and providing a vehicle
to commission new integrated research; (ii) Synergizing research programmes and
activities on climate change and establishing a road map in mitigating and adapting
to climate change, (iii) building the capacity of the Indonesia research community to
generate information relevant to decision-makers; (iv) establishing an interface between
researchers and decision-makers; (v) promoting coordinated programmes of work on
impacts and adaptation across Indonesia, working in collaboration with stakeholders
and other researchers in national, regional and sectoral contexts, (vi) delivering the
information to support climate change adaptation decision-making at the national,
regional and local levels through coordination, integration, synthesis and communication
of research.
The consortium conducts research and development activities on inventories, mitigation
and adaptation which include the following: (i) development of GHG emission and
removal factors and methods for improving activity data, (ii) identification and
development of mitigation technologies with the potential for CDM projects, the
development of baseline and monitoring methodologies as required by the CDM
Executive Board, and (iii) conducting policy research on maintaining food crop self
sufficiency under changing demography, socio-economic, land use and climate (e.g.
mapping vulnerable areas to climate change, strategies for coping with the climate
changes etc)
In the forestry sector, the development of systematic forest and land use monitoring
systems is also crucial to support the implementation of programmes for REDD. The
Government of Indonesia is in the process of establishing Indonesia’s National Carbon
Accounting System (NCASI), based on Australia’s system but tailored to Indonesia’s
unique circumstances. The NCASI will provide a comprehensive and credible compilation
of Indonesia’s land based emissions profile and sink capacity. It will support Indonesia’s
reporting requirements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) and potential post-2012 Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and
Forest Degradation global climate protection regime. Further, the NCASI will contribute
significantly to Indonesia’s carbon accounting, resulting in positive implications both
domestically and internationally. It will allow Indonesia to develop a robust modeling and
projection capacity for land based carbon accounting, and therefore robust emissions
and removal estimates.
37
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Barriers, and Related Financial, Technical and Capacity Needs
The INCAS will pull together information on deforestation, land use change and land use
from Indonesia’s forest lands and other lands (primarily agricultural lands) to:
Support Indonesia’s position in the international development of policy and guidelines
on sink activity and greenhouse gas emissions and their mitigation from land based
systems.
Reduce scientific uncertainties (particularly regarding peat) of emission estimates and
removals of both CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases from land use change.
Provide monitoring capabilities for existing emissions and sinks, and scenario
development and modeling capabilities that support greenhouse gas mitigation and
the sinks development agenda through to 2010 and beyond.
Provide a scientific and technical basis for international negotiations and promote
Indonesia’s national interests in international forums.
Develop a comprehensive GIS that includes digital map-based information such as
soil maps, remotely sensed images covering the whole of Indonesia and climate and
vegetation data.
Support Indonesia’s negotiations on REDD and provide the necessary inputs required
for establishing a credible Reference Emission Level.
In relation to the forestry sector, Indonesia is developing Indonesia’s Forest Resource
Information System (FRIS). FRIS will be a comprehensive and transparent information
management system to support effective planning and forest management decision
making for forest lands in Indonesia. FRIS will allow the Ministry of Forestry to monitor
forest productivity, yield and growth, harvesting rates, age class, species and forest
area among other things. It will also compile critical information on deforestation,
land use and land use change within Indonesia’s forest lands to support a post-Kyoto
climate protection regime that seeks to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest
degradation (REDD). Combining this data within a single system will provide a good
basis for planning and decisions on sustainable forest management.
The lack of reliable information on forest resources has been identified as a major
impediment to sustainable forest management in Indonesia. Such information gaps
are hampering efforts to monitor deforestation and forest degradation, sustainably
manage forest resources, combat illegal logging, protect biodiversity and reduce carbon
emissions from land use change. Improving forest information is crucial in the context
of the emerging need for the Government of Indonesia to document carbon stocks in
forests and greenhouse gas emissions related to land use change and to participate in
carbon markets for avoided deforestation and degradation.
38
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Barriers, and Related Financial, Technical and Capacity Needs
FRIS objectives:
• Provide spatial information on forest extent to support planning, management
and decision making including improved tools for granting, monitoring and
collating information on forest licenses.
• Provide an integrated and comprehensive system connecting data and statistics
on forests with geographic maps and spatial data. The system will link the Ministry
of Forestry with forest departments at the district and provincial level and interface
with databases developed by other government departments, such as the
Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Environment.
• Support transparency and disclosure of forest sector information.
• Support the regular reporting required of the Ministry of Forestry (for the FRA of FAO
and others).
• To provide information that can be used to develop a Reference Emission Level for
REDD.
• To provide estimates of the amount of carbon stored in above ground forest biomass,
forest litter, tree roots and debris.
39
Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
References
References
Aldrian, E. 2008. PEAT Carbon, fire and climate Interactions. Jurnal Hidrosfir Indonesia
3: 23-32
Ardiansyah, M. and R. Boer. 2009. Forestry Sector. In MoE. Technical Report on
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment to Climate Change for Indonesia’s
Second National Communication. Ministry of Environment and United Nations
Development Programme, Jakarta.
Bappenas, 2008. National Development Planning: Indonesia Response to Climate
Change. National Agency for Planning and Development (Bappenas), Republic of
Indonesia
Bappenas. 2009. Blueprint for Indonesia Climate Change Trust Fund (ICCTF). National
Agency for Planning and Development (Bappenas), Republic of Indonesia
Boer, R. 2001. Economic Assessment of Mitigation Options for Enhancing and
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Contact Details:
Unit Asdep Pengendalian Dampak Perubahan Iklim
Kementerian Negara Lingkungan Hidup
Jl. D.I. Panjaitan Kav. 24 Kebon Nanas,
Jatinegara, JAKARTA (13410)
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: 021-8517164
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Website : www.menlh.go.id
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