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Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Jakarta, November 2009 1 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 2 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Jakarta, November 2009 1 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Adviser State Minister of Environment Editor in Chief Masnellyarti Hilman, Deputy Minister for Nature Conservation Enhancement and Environmental Destruction Control, Ministry of Environment Authors Rizaldi Boer, Sulistyowati, Irsal Las, Farida Zed, Nur Masripatin, Dana Kartasasmita, Dadang Hilman, Haneda Sri Mulyanto Acknowledgement: The State Minister of Environment would like to thank the following for their contribution to the preparation of the Summary for Policy Makers Indonesia Second National Communication under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): Sunaryo (Ministry of Forestry), Marwansyah Lobo Balia (Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources), Wendy Aritenang (Ministry of Transportation) Eddy Effendi Tedjakusuma (National Development Planning Agency), Subandono Diposaptono (Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries), Ida Kusuma (Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries), Elly Andriani Sinaga (Ministry of Transportation), Gatot Irianto (Ministry of Agriculture), Hendradjat N (Ministry of Agriculture), Yana Anggadireja (Agency For the Assessment and Application Technology), Sriwono Harijono (BMKG), Ano Herwana (BPS-Statistics Indonesia), Wan Alkadri (Ministry of Health), Endang Supraptini (The Ministry of Industry), Agus Wahyudi (The Ministry of Industry), Ghafur Akbar Dharmaputra (Ministry of Foreign Affairs), Iman Bonila Sombu (Ministry of Home Affairs), Lilih Handayaningrum (The Ministry of Industry), Saleh Abdurrahman (Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources), Sidik Boedoyo (Agency For the Assessment and Application Technology), Soendjoto (PU), Agus Hermawan Atmadilaga (National Coordinating Agency for Survey and Mapping), Thomas Djamaluddin (National Institute of Aeronautics and Space), Ari Wibowo (Ministry of Forestry), Suryahadi (Bogor Agriculture University), Retno Gumilang (Bandung Institute of Technology), Muhammad Ardiansyah (Bogor Agriculture University)), Rini Hidayati (Bogor Agriculture University), Feril Hariati (Ibnu Khaldun University Bogor), Agus Buono (Bogor Agriculture University), Prihasto Setyanto (Ministry of Agriculture), Elza Surmaini (Ministry of Agriculture), Yanuar J. Purwanto (Bogor Agriculture University), Kiki Kartikasari (Bogor Agriculture University), Arien Heryansyah (Bogor Agriculture University), Idat G. Permana (Bogor Agriculture University), Adi Rakhman (Bogor Agriculture University). Support: The preparation of the Second National Communication has been supported by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) with funding from the Global Environment Facility (GEF). 2 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Preface Preface The Second National Communication (SNC) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is one of Indonesia’s most significant official position documents on climate change. As of November 2009, 12 non-Annex I countries have submitted their Second National Communications, while 67 non-Annex I Parties, including Indonesia, expect to complete their draft SNCs by the end of 2009. Indonesia submitted its First National Communication in 1999. In order to improve and build upon the First National Communication, the SNC development process has involved intensive stakeholder consultations over the period of two years, and has also emphasized climate change adaptation issues. Indonesia’s Second National Communication will be submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat by the end of 2009. As requested by the UNFCCC, National Communications are a vehicle for nations to present information on emissions and removals of greenhouse gases (GHGs), and details of the steps taken to implement the Convention. It is important to note that National Communications are a continuing process, enabling and encouraging nations to accommodate the latest data and methodologies. In this respect, we acknowledge there are still certain sectors such as GHG emissions from Land Use Change and Forestry (LUCF), where methodologies and available data are continuously being refined and updated. Therefore, the Indonesia SNC should be understood as a snapshot of the current understanding on where Indonesia stands in addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation challenges. I am pleased to announce that many stakeholders are already working hard to improve on the SNC in Indonesia’s Third National Communication and other documents. Finally, I would like to extend my appreciation to all parties involved in the preparation of Indonesia’s SNC, which was supported by GEF (Global Environmental Facility) through its implementing agency UNDP. Contributions, inputs and all the work put into this document from all institutions, departments, private sector organizations and NGOs are gratefully acknowledged and appreciated. Gusti Muhammad Hatta State Minister for the Environment Republic of Indonesia 3 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Contents Contents Preface .............................................................. 5 Introduction ....................................................... 5 National Circumstances ................................. 5 National GHG inventory ............................... 6 Steps planned to implement the Convention .............................................. 10 Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change ................ 12 Measures to Mitigate Climate Change ............................................... 23 Other Information ........................................... 35 Barriers, and Related Financial, Technical and Capacity Needs References ................ 36 ........................................................ 40 4 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Introduction National Circumstances Introduction Indonesia continues its efforts and actions towards the implementation of the commitments as a Non-Annex I Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Indonesia presented the First National Communication to the UNFCCC in 1999. One of the most important sections was the first National Greenhouse Gases Emissions Inventory (NGHGEI) for the year 1990 and also the results of the first studies on the country’s vulnerability to climate change. The Second National Communication (SNC) presents the National Greenhouse Gases Emissions Inventory (NGHGEI) for the years 2000 to 2005. This Communication was supported by the Global Environmental Fund (GEF) through the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), along with further funding from the Government of Indonesia. The funds received allowed the improvement of the emissions inventory, and supported the development of studies on climate change mitigation and adaptation in Indonesia. On this occasion, the process of planning the National Communication content included consultations with academics and representatives from government institutions, private sector and non-governmental organizations, in order to capture their opinion and points of view about what elements of the previous communication should be improved in this second assessment. A public consultation was also held for the same purpose. As requested, Indonesia’s Second National Communication was prepared in accordance with the UNFCCC Reporting guidelines on National Communications. National Circumstances Indonesia is the fourth most populous nation in the world following China, India and the United States. The population grew from 119 million in 1971 to 219 million in 2005. While the growth rate is slowing down from 1.49% (1990–2000) to become 1.34% (2001– 2005), it is projected that Indonesia’s population will reach 300 million in 2030. Poverty remains a challenge, while unemployment and underemployment are still relatively high. In the Mid-Term National Development Plan (RPJMN) 2004–2009, it was targeted that poverty and unemployment would be about 5.1% and 8.2% respectively. A recent report from BPS stated that the number of unemployment by February 2008 reached 8.46% or about 9.43 million people. However, based on the projection of the Institute for Development Economics and Finance (Indef), due to current economic crisis the number of poor and unemployed in 2008 may increase to 9.5% and 16.3% respectively (Depsos, 2009). 5 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) National Circumstances National GHG inventory Indonesia’s GDP is approximately USD 175 billion, in which trade (16.7%), manufacturing (28%), agriculture (15.4%), and services (10.17%) are the main contributors. Earnings from exports were about USD 69 billion (primarily oil and gas, textiles, appliances, coal, copper), while imports accounted for about US$ 44.8 billion (primarily food, chemicals, capitals and consumer goods). GDP growth has increased steadily since 1998, reaching 6.3% in 2007 thus bringing per capita GDP to around USD 2000. The role of sectors other than oil and gas has become much more significant in the Indonesian economy since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), with the oil and gas sectors experiencing negative growth rates each year since with the exception of 2000. Among the non-oil and gas sectors, agriculture has continued to play an important role. It is a sector that was significantly less affected by the AFC, and indeed helped the recovery of Indonesian economy after the crisis through a substantial increase in exports and its absorption of unemployed workers in its role as an “employer of last resort” for many jobseekers (Siregar, 2008). In line with country’s economic and population development, domestic consumption of energy has been growing. Current growth rates are around 2.5% per annum, rising from 496,589 MMBOE (million barrel oil equivalents) in 2000 to 589,668 MMBOE in 2007. The majority of this consumption is accounted by industrial sector, followed by transportation, and households. In 2007 energy consumption was distributed heavily in these sectors; industrial sector 47.9%, transportation 30.5%, household 12.8%, commercial 4%, and others 4.7%. It is projected that energy consumption will remain dominated by the industry and transportation sectors. In supplying the domestic final energy demand, Indonesia still relies on fossil fuelbased resources. However, this may shift in the medium term; according the Indonesian National Energy Policy (KEN), the share of new and renewable energy is targeted to increase from 4.5% (44.55 MMBOE) in 2003 to 17% (322 MMBOE) in 2025. National GHG inventory The National Greenhouse Gases Inventory (NGHGI) was estimated using Tier 1 and Tier 2 of the 2006 IPCC Reporting Guidelines. In 2000, total GHG emissions for the three main greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) without LULUCF (LUCF and peat fires) reached 594.738 Gg CO2e. With the inclusion of LULUCF, total GHG emissions from Indonesia increase significantly to about 1,415,988 Gg CO2e (Table 1a and 1b). The GHG emissions (in CO2 equivalent) were distributed unevenly between the three gases recorded: CO2 totalled 1,162,935 Gg, representing 82% of the total; methane (CH4) totalled 226,104 Gg (CO2e), or 15%; and nitrous oxide (N2O) totalled 26,948 Gg (CO2e), or 2%. The main contributing sectors were Land Use Change and Forestry, followed by energy and peat fire related emissions (please see below for further discussion on this issue). 6 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) National GHG inventory Table 1a. Summary of 2000 GHG emission and removal (in Gg) Source/Sink Energy Industry Agriculture Land Use Change and Forestry 1 Peat Fire Waste TOTAL CO2 emission 305,983 31,938 2,178 CO2 removal 1,060,766 172,000 1,662 411,593 CH4 N2 0 CO2e 1,221 104 2,419 6 0 72 333,540 34,197 75,419 3 0 7,020 8,05 649,254 172,000 151,578 1,415,988 1Note: Emission from peat fire was taken from van der Werf et al (2008). Source: MoE (2009) Table 1b. Summary of GHG emissions from 2000-2005 from all sectors (in Gg) Energy Industry Agriculture Waste LUCF Peat Fire1 Total with LULUCF Total Without LULUCF 2000 333,540 34,197 75,419 151,578 649,254 172,000 2001 348,331 45,545 77,501 153,299 560,546 194,000 1,415,988 1,379,222 594,734 624,676 2002 354,246 33,076 77,030 154,334 1,287,495 678,000 2004 384,668 36,242 77,863 155,390 617,280 440,000 2005 395,990 37,036 80,179 155,609 N.E 451,000 2,584,181 1,226,191 1,711,443 1,119,814+LUCF 618,686 2003 364,925 35,073 79,829 154,874 345,489 246,000 634,701 654,162 668,814+LUCF 1Note: Emission from peat fire was taken from van der Werf et al (2008). Source: MoE (2009) The emission estimates in the SNC are lower than those reported by a 2007 PEACE, World Bank and DFID study, which suggested Indonesia to be the 3rd largest emitter country. The study estimated that the total emission from Indonesia was about 3,014,000 Gg CO2 where LUCF contributed about 85% or about 2,563,000 Gg CO2 (twice the SNC estimate above). Indeed, a further study from the World Bank (2008) suggested that the mean annual CO2 emissions from LUCF reached up to 2,398,000 Gg, assuming 53% from peat fire, 20% from peat drainage (peat oxidation), 22% from deforestation and 5% from palm oil and timber plantation establishment. Between the SNC and World Bank estimates, a recent study from NCCC (DNPI) (2009) suggested that the total GHG emissions from LUCF in 2005 reached 1,880,000 Gg CO2e where about 55% was from peat emissions. These large differences in Indonesian emissions estimates thus appear to be mainly due to differences in estimates of LUCF emissions, particularly from peat. Inter-annual variation of emissions from peat fires is also very high (Figure 1). High emissions normally occurred in El Nino years (1997, 2002, and 2006). The highest estimate was from Hooijer et al (2006), which estimated the emission based on a Borneo hotspot count and a carbon calculation method used by Page et al. (2002), who estimated emissions from peat fires in 1997 El-Nino. This approach may give an overestimate as hotspot counts in peat lands are not fully proportional to CO2 emissions, which are governed by further factors such as the depth and area of burning. Therefore, this relationship may not also be generally applicable for the whole of Indonesia, and so the extrapolation of emission estimates over Indonesia based on limited ground checks in Kalimantan may lead to overestimation. 7 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) National GHG inventory Heil et al. 2007 Levine 1999 Hooijeretal 2006 Minimum Hooijeretal 2006 Maximum Duncan 2003 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 van der Werf et al. 2007 1998 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1997 Emission (CO2 Tg) Van der Werf et al. (2007) attempted to improve emission estimates from peat fires using several sources of satellite data with biogeochemical and atmospheric modeling to better understand and constrain peat fire emissions from Indonesia. This resulted in far lower estimates. The NGHGI adopted the study of the Van der Werf et al. (2007). In 2000, their estimated emissions from peat fires were calculated at about 172.000 Gg CO2e, while the average emission of peat fire (1997-2007) was about 466,000 Gg CO2e. Figure 1. Estimate of emissions from peat fires from various studies. Note emission estimations of years beyond the publication date of the reports were made by Aldrian (2008) and Wibowo and Boer (2009). Indonesia plans to improve emission estimates, particularly from peat lands in the next National GHG Inventory. At present, activities undertaken by the Ministry of Forestry and Ministry of Agriculture to improve emission estimates from peat lands are the following: 1. The Ministry of Agriculture (through National Research Consortium for Climate Variability and Climate Change) is conducting studies to develop emissions factors from peat lands under different usage scenarios in Central Kalimantan. The Ministry of Agriculture will also expand this study to other provinces and request for support from international agencies. Additional surveys to improve activity data on peat depth (particularly in Papua) are also being planned. It is expected that the funding allocated for the 3rd National Communication can provide additional support for the studies. 2. The Ministry of Forestry is improving the emission sink factors from forests and emission factors from fire (both in mineral soils and peat land). The programme is being undertaken through the INCAS (Indonesian National Carbon Accounting System) project and other relevant research programmes under the MoF and partners. 3. The State Ministry of Environment is conducting a pilot study on Peatland Management, including calculation of GHG emissions from peat lands in West Kalimantan and Riau Provinces. 8 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) National GHG inventory Sector-wise National GHG Inventory The following paragraphs summarize the contribution and trend of emission from 20002005 for all sectors. Energy Generation. Total emissions from energy sector in 2000 were about 333,540.98 Gg CO2e, or 23% of Indonesia’s total emissions. About 98% of the total energy emission was from fuel combustion, and of this about 51.5% was from petroleum and gas refining, 18.2% from transportation, 12.2% from electricity and heat production, 7.4% from residential, 5.9% from manufacturing industries and construction. In the period from 2000-2005, GHG emissions from this sector showed an increase from 333,540.98 Gg in 2000 to 395,989.72 Gg CO2e in 2005, which represents a 25% increase, or 3.74% per year. Industrial Processes. The main gas emitted in the category of industrial processes was CO2, which represented 93% of the emissions in this category (31,938.19 CO2 Gg in 2000). In the period 2000-2005, CO2 emissions from this sector were relatively constant. The main source of CO2 emissions came from cement production (49%), followed by ammonia production (25%) and lime production (12%). Solvents. The total emission of Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOCs) was not estimated in the NGHGI of the SNC. Agriculture. The main GHG emission from this sector was CH4, which accounted for about 67% of the total emission of the sector. This was followed by N2O (30%) and CO2 (3%). Total GHG emission in CO2e from this sector in 2000 was about 75,419.73 Gg. Between 2000 and 2005, agricultural GHG emissions increased at about 6.3%. The main sources of CH4 emission from this sector were rice paddy fields (69%) and livestock (28%). Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). In 2000, the rate of CO2 emission from this sector was higher than rate of CO2 removal. The total CO2 emission was 1,232,766.22 Gg (including peat fire), while the rate of removal was only 411,592.87 Gg. Thus the net CO2 emission was about 821,173 Gg. The main sources of CO2 emission were deforestation (59%), soil (including peat oxidation) (18%), peat fire (14%) and wood harvesting (9%). In the period 2000-2004, the rate of LULUCF emissions fluctuated and the contribution of each emission source also shifted. For example, the highest CO2 emission was in 2002 at 2,584,181 Gg (see Table 1b), almost double the emissions in 2000. Moreover, the contribution of peat fire in 2002 to the total CO2 emission increased to about 26.2%; this was because 2002 was an El-Nino year (drought year) where wild fire occurrences increased significantly. Waste. The main GHG emission from this sector was CH4, which is accounted for about 93% of the total emission of the sector. Most of CH4 emission was from industrial waste water treatment and discharge (84%), followed by unmanaged solid waste disposal (8%) and domestic waste water treatment and Discharge (7%). Total GHG emission in 9 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Steps planned to implement the Convention CO2e from this sector in 2000 was about 151,578 Gg and in 2005 it increased slightly to 155,609.49 Gg. Steps planned to implement the Convention To effectively implement the UNFCCC, the Government of Indonesia has made a number of significant steps in mainstreaming climate change issues with other national development priorities. The first of these was the issuance of National Action Plan on Climate Change (MoE, 2007a), which describes appropriate actions to reduce GHG emissions and adaptation activities in Indonesia. This was then followed by the document, “National Development Planning: Indonesia responses to climate change”. The National Planning and Development Agency (Bappenas) subsequently developed a Climate Change Roadmap, meant to bridge the National Action Plan on Climate Change into the 5 year Mid-Term Development Plan (RPJM) 2010-2014, and to provide inputs for the subsequent RPJMN until 2030. The process of developing the Climate Change Roadmap is shown in Figure 2. POLICIES & REGULATIONS EXISTING CONDITIONS PROGRAMME PROJECT FINANCING SCHEMES Coordination team for policy dialogue (BAPPENAS) ROADMAP CAPACITY BUILDING OBJECTIVES Mainstreaming Climate Change Into Development Planning Source: Bappenas, 2008 Figure 2. Process of Development of Climate Change Roadmap To support and accelerate the implementation of climate change programmes, the Government of Indonesia established a number of innovative ways to link international financial resources with national investment strategies. This Indonesian Climate Change Trust Fund (ICTTF; Bappenas, 2009) aims to be a showcase of alternative financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation programmes. At this stage, the ICCTF has five specific objectives namely (i) to facilitate and accelerate investment in renewable energy and efficiency and simultaneously reduce GHG emissions from the energy sector, (ii) to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and stabilize carbon stocks through sustainable forest and peat land management, (iii) to reduce vulnerability in coastal zones, agriculture and water sectors, (iv) to bridge the financial gaps necessary to 10 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Steps planned to implement the Convention address climate change mitigation and adaptation and (v) to increase the effectiveness and impact of external finance for climate change programmes. At the initial phase, the ICCTF will be created as an “Innovative Fund”, which involves grant funding from development partners that will help overcome barriers for early programme deployment. At the later stages, the ICCTF may advance by establishing a “transformation fund” mechanism, which would involve all available funding (publicprivate partnerships, loan and world capital market sources). This transformation fund also aims to assist with market penetration. As such, at the initial phase, the ICCTF will be dominated by public funding and at the later stages will draw predominantly on private funds (Figure 3). The ICCTF can be accessed by sectoral ministries and other stakeholders to support the implementation of climate change programmes. The coordination mechanism of the ICCTF is presented in Figure 4. Phase 1 Phase 2 Sectoral Ministries Sectoral Ministries, local governments, Privates, NGOs, Universities ICCTF innovation fund Research & Development Harmonized Public Sector Involvement (Loan, reflow of transformation fund, capital market etc ICCTF transformation fund Early deployment Demonstration 2009 Pre Market Phase 3 2010 Market creation Private investment Government Funding Figure 3. ICCTF Development (Bappenas, 2009) 11 Commercial Deployment 2012 Market penetration Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change Advisory Committee on Coordination of ICCTF Management Team Reporting Donors Bilateral Police Guidance Multilateral Steering Committee Others (CSR etc) Technical Committee Secretariat Financial Service Providers (Trustee) Recipients Sectoral Ministries Technical Service Providers (permanent and on call expert) NGOs, Universities, Communities etc Flow of Coordination Flow of Support Flow of Funds Figure 4. Coordination Mechanism of ICCTF (Bappenas, 2009) Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change Due to its geographical location, topography and socioeconomic aspects, Indonesia is especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and climate change. The El Niño and La Niña phenomena (ENSO), as well as extreme meteorological conditions, have historically resulted in serious damage that affects a wide range of different socioeconomic sectors. A number of studies suggested that El Niño events have become more frequent as the global temperature anomalies associated with each El Niño continue to increase (Hansen et al., 2006; Timmerman et al. 1999). This suggests that the increasingly high temperatures are exacerbating the extreme regional weather and climate anomalies associated with El Niño. By assessing historical natural hazard data from 1907-2007 (OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database 2007), it is clear that the first climate-natural hazard categorized as global hazard occurred for the first time in early 1950s; by the 1980s they were occurring more frequently (Figure 5). Over this entire record, the most frequent hazard has been flooding, followed by landslides and water or vector borne diseases, wind storms, forest fires, drought, and high tide/storm surge (Figure 5). Furthermore, the top 20 natural hazards, causing huge economic loss and adverse human impacts, mostly occurred after the 1980s, suggesting increasing trend in hazards’ intensity (Figure 6). 12 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 14 120 12 100 27 8 2 e/ S Ti d Dr ou g ht 9 ur ge 10 W at er Fl or oo Ve ds La ct or nd Bo sli rn de ed s Di W se in as d es st or m /C yc lo ne Fo re st Fi re 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 0 1970 0 1965 20 1960 2 1955 38 40 h 4 60 ig 6 H 8 108 80 Frequency 10 1950 Number of Climate-Related Hazards Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change 1,700 750 600 450 300 150 1996 1997 1997 1998 2000 2002 2004 Flood Flood Flood Flood Wild Fires Wild Fires Flood Flood 1972 1987 Drought 1966 1972 1983 1986 1994 1996 1997 2002 2006 2007 0 Drought Total Damage (Million USD) Flood Flood Flood Drought Flood Wild Fires Epidemic Flood Flood 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Drought Number of People being Affected (Million) Figure 5. Number of climate hazards by year (left) and by type (right). Source: Boer and Perdinan (2008) 2007 Figure 6. The top 10 climate hazards causing huge economic loss and number of people being affected (Boer and Perdinan, 2008) Links between climatic variation and social development With the increasing trend of climate hazards frequency and intensity, the most affected group will be the poorest sections of society, which are most exposed and least resilient. The capacity of this group to adapt to the extreme climate events and future climate change is limited due by their limited resource availability and access to climate information and technologies. It is likely, therefore, that their reliance on national and local public assistance from government will increase in the future. During the 2006/07 El-Nino, many farmers in the Timor district of East Nusa Tenggara Province—one of the most vulnerable districts to drought--experienced crop failure due to drought. As a consequence, the major source of income for the poorest came from government aid (‘bantuan pemerintah’) that year, particularly during dry season (Figure 7). In addition to aid, many farmers often have to sell their domestic livestock (ternak) or engage in informal laboring to generate additional income. At Indramayu, the drought occurrence associated with the 2003 El-Nino caused huge rice production loss. In 2003, the number of household that could not meet their food basic needs increased by 14% compare to the normal years (Boer et al., 2006). 13 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change It is clear, therefore, that improving access to a diversified set of incomes and resources is a key method for improving climate resilience. This is closely linked with rapid poverty reduction, which is essential to help poor and vulnerable communities improve their resilience both to natural climate variability and to the greater stresses of human-induced climate change in the future. 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Jul 07 Aug 07 Jun 07 Apr 07 May 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Jan 07 Dec 06 Oct 06 Nov 06 Sep 06 Aug 06 Jul 06 Jun 06 Apr 06 May 06 Mar 06 Jan 06 Feb 06 Dec 05 Nov 05 Oct 05 Sep 05 Aug 05 Jul 05 Jun 05 - (20,000) (40,000) Bantuan Pemerintah Self Business Sumbangan Labor informal Pegawai On-Farm Ternak Figure 7. Source of income of farmers at Timor of East Nusa Tenggara Provice in 2006/07 El-Nino. Source: Kieft (2007) Observed climatic changes and predictions Analysis of long historical climate data suggests that maximum and minimum temperature have increased consistently (MoE, 2007). Significant decreases and/or increases in rainfall have also detected in many part of Indonesian region, with different significant trends in different areas. Based on data over 300 stations, with length of records between 20 and 50 years, a significantly decreasing trend in Dec-Jan rainfall was observed in small part of Java and Papua, and Sumatra and large part of Kalimantan islands, whereas significant increasing trend were observed in most of Java and Eastern Indonesia such as Bali, NTB and NTT (Figure 8). For Jun-Aug rainfall, significantly decreasing trends were observed in most of Indonesian region with exception in Pandeglang (West Java), Makasar (South Sulawesi), Monokwari, Sorong (Irian Jaya) and Maluku (Figure 7). 14 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change Monsoon onset has also changed in many part of Indonesia. Based on analysis of data from 92 stations spread over Indonesia, monsoon onset has increasingly been delayed in some part of Indonesia, particularly in Java; similarly, the length of the wet season has tended to shorten, particularly in South Sumatra, Java and Kalimantan. Other studies conducted in East Java also suggest that the number of extreme dry months in the Brantas Catchment area has increased in the last five decades, particularly in areas near to the coast (Aldrian and Djamil 2006). In such coastal areas, the number of extreme dry months increased to 4 months in the last ten years and in 2002 it reached 8 months, a level considered as the longest dry season for the whole five decades. In mountain areas, the number of dry months is about 1-2 months over the last ten years, with maximum number of 4 months. Using 14 General Circulation Models (GCMs), under increasing GHG emission scenarios (SRESA2), most of models are in agreement that in 2025 the wet seasonal rainfall (DJF) in Java, Bali, NTB, NTT and Papua will increase, while in other parts will decrease. By 2050 and 2080, most of Indonesian regions will experience higher rainfall than current condition with exception in northern part of Sumatra and Kalimantan (Figure 8). Furthermore, dry season rainfall in most part of Java might decrease in 2025, increase again in 2050, and then decrease in 2080 particularly in West Java and South Sumatra (Figure 8). Under low emission scenarios (SRESB1), the pattern of change is similar to that of high emission scenarios but the magnitude of change is slightly lower. The monsoon onset more generally in Java and Bali may also delay under warming atmosphere. It is clear that a 30-day delay in monsoon onset is very likely to occur more frequently in 2050 than it does today and the length of the rainy season will shorten (Naylor et al., 2007). 14 10 5 6 2 2 -2 -1 -6 -10 -4 -14 -7 -18 -22 -10 -22 -30 95 98 101 104 107 110 113 116 119 122 15 125 128 131 134 137 140 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change 14 10 5 6 2 2 -2 -1 -6 -10 -4 -14 -7 -18 -22 -10 -22 -30 95 98 101 104 107 110 113 116 119 122 125 128 131 134 137 140 mm/v Figure 7. Trend of seasonal rainfall for Dec-Feb (above) and June-Aug (below) in Indonesia (Source: Boer et al., 2009a) Global warming is also very likely to increase sea levels. Historical data shows increasing trends in mean sea level (MSL) in a number of locations. However, the rate of increase varies with locations (Table 2). The relative sea level rise accelerates significantly in areas where coastal erosion is removing material and where the land border has been subsiding. The increase in MSL has also increased the problem of saltwater intrusion and salinity. 2025 2050 2080 DJF 1.0 0.9 5 5 5 0 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -10 -10 -10 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 JJA 1.0 0.9 5 5 5 0 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -10 -10 -10 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 Figure 8. Trend of wet seasonal (December-February) and dry seasonal (June-August) rainfall under high emission scenarios (SRESA2). Note: Dark Red (indicator 1) means that all GCM models are in agreement to suggest the seasonal rainfall will decrease and dark blue (Indicator 0) means that all models are in agreement to suggest the seasonal rainfall will increase (Boer et al., 2009a). 16 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change Table 2. Relative sea level rise in a number of observation stations Stations Location Cilacap Belawan Jakarta Semarang Surabaya Sumatra Panjang Lampung Sea Level Rise (mm/year) 1.30 7.83 4.38 7.00 9.37 5.00 1.00 5.47 4.15 Source Hadikusuma, 1993 ITB, 1990 ITB, 1990 Based on data from 1984-20061 ITB, 1990 Based on data from 1984-2006 Based on data from 1984-2006 ITB, 1990 P3O-LIPI, 1991 Sector-wise impacts and adaptation measures Agriculture and Fisheries. Changes in spatial rainfall patterns, the length of the wet season and inter-seasonal variability will have serious implications for many sectors. In the agriculture sector, the current cropping pattern may no longer be the most effective food production system. At present, the pattern used in most of the rice growing areas of Indonesia is rice-rice. The second planting depends heavily on irrigation water. Under extreme drought years, the availability of irrigation water is very limited, usually leading to major rice production losses. Under a changing climate, the occurrence of extreme climate events (drought) will be more frequent than the current climate and there is a possibility that the dry season will persist for longer periods. Therefore, keeping this cropping pattern in the future may expose Indonesian farmers to more frequent crop failures. Thus, in areas where the pattern of rainfall changes in this direction, farmers should consider alter their cropping pattern from rice-rice to rice-non rice. If the ricerice pattern is maintained, improvement of water storage and irrigation facilities will be required for compensating the decreased in June July August rainfall. More efforts to create new short maturing rice varieties should also be in place to anticipate the shorter wet season. Furthermore, analysis of climate change impacts in rice production in Java suggested that production between 2025 and 2050 is likely to decrease by about 1.8 and 3.6 million ton from the current production level respectively (Boer et al., 2009b). By including the impact of rice field conversion to non-agriculture lands in Java, i.e., taking 0.77% of land out of production per annum, the production loss in 2025 and 2050 will increase to 5.2 and 13.0 million ton respectively. Thus, the impact of rice field conversion will be much higher than the impact of climate change. To compensate this loss, new rice areas of around 1.5 and 3.5 million ha will be needed in 2025 and 2050 respectively outside Java. Alternatively, the loss can be compensated by increasing rice productivity by about 20% and 50% from the current levels. To achieve this, breeding technology would have to be able to increase rice productivity by about 1 t/ha and 2.5 t/ha from the current productivity (~5 t/ha). 1 The derived water levels are a combination of changes in the sea level and the vertical land motion at the location of the gauge. Therefore, the trends derived are relative MSL trends and can be considered valid only for a region near the gauge with uniform vertical land motion. 17 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change The increase in temperature and the changes in rainfall pattern and length of seasons may also trigger the development of crop pests and diseases. For example, BPH (Brown Plant Hopper) population normally increases when rainfall in the transitional season increases compared to normal. The changes in cropping patterns as part of adaptation efforts to climate change may also alter crop pests and diseases problems in the regions. Moreover, invasion of new species of pests and diseases may well occur in a changing climate, and the change in temperature and rainfall may also change the domination of certain crop pest and diseases (Wiyono, 2007). Field observations in a number Java districts, such as Indramayu, Magelang, Semarang, Boyolali, Kulonprogo, and Ciamis, provide the evidence of this phenomena (see section 3.3). A rapid assessment conducted by Parry et al. (1992) in a number of locations in Indonesia suggested that sea level rise due to global warming will also reduce local rice supply in Krawang and Subang districts by about 300,000 tons. Similarly, maize output would likely be reduced by 10,000 tons--about half of this due to inundation. Sea-level rise would also be likely to affect fish and prawn production. The loss is estimated at over 7000 tons and 4000 tons respectively (valued at over USD 0.5m). In the lower Citarum Basin sea-level rise could result in the inundation of about 26,000 ha of ponds and 10,000 ha of crop land. This could result in the loss of 15 000 tons of fish, shrimp and prawns and about 940 000 ton of rice. Parry et al. stated that the socio-economic implications of this transition in Subang District alone could be the loss of employment for about 43 000 farm laborers. In addition more than 81 000 farmers would have to look for other sources of income due to the inundation of their rice fields or prawn and fish farms due to sea-level rise. The increase in sea temperature will also cause serious problems for the coral ecosystems. Wetland International (Burke et al., 2002) reported that the 1997 El-Niño damaged about 18% of the coral ecosystems in South East Asia. In Indonesia, coral bleaching was observed in many places such as in the eastern part of Sumatra, Java, Bali, and Lombok. In ‘thousands islands’ (north of the Jakarta coast), about 90-95% of the corals located 25 m below sea surface have been bleached. Coastal and Outer Islands. The increase in sea level by about 25 to 50 cm in 2050 and 2100 as projected by many models will inundate many parts of the coastal cities of Indonesia. Land subsidence will exacerbate this, increasing the total area that will be inundated permanently. Between 25% and 50% of area in a number of sub-districts in coastal cities such as Semarang, Surabaya, Jakarta and Medan will be under water permanently. Figures 9 and 10 illustrate this combined forcing in two coastal cities (Surabaya and Semarang). The increase of sea level rise may also inundate the outer islands of the country, and this will affect the area of Indonesian territory. The analysis suggests that an increase of sea level of up to 50 cm will not inundate the outer islands of Indonesia permanently. However, in combination with tidal patterns in the region, about five outer islands will temporarily inundate. These islands include Alor (next to Timor Leste), Pelampong (next to Singapura), Senua (next to Malaysia), Simuk and Sinyaunyau (next to India). 18 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change Water Resources. At present, the water balance in most of Java and the eastern islands of Indonesia is already in deficit for most of year (Figure 11). With such conditions, increasing planting in these islands is not possible, further restricting options for increasing rice production outlined above. Under changing a climate, more districts will have water scarcity problems (Heriensyah et al., 2009). A key need is the development of new initiatives to anticipate the scarcity of water due to climate change and increases on water demand, especially in urban areas where populations are increasing and industrial activities are taking place. Inter-basin transfer of water may be one of the potential options to anticipate the scarcity of water in the future. In Indonesia many basins have surplus water resources, even in the ultimate stage of development, while others face serious shortages, especially during extreme drought years. Creation of storages and inter-basin transfer of water from surplus to deficit regions (such as in West Nusa Tenggara) could therefore be an option for achieving more equitable distribution of resources and their optimal utilization. Forests. Decreasing dry season rainfall and shortening length of wet season will increase the risk of forest fire. Two islands which are very prone to fire are Sumatra and Kalimantan. Based on hotspot density pattern, two provinces that have very high hotspot density are Riau Province and Central Kalimantan (Figure 12). Hotspot densities in these two islands increased rapidly when dry season rainfall decreases or the length of dry season extends, particularly during El Nino years. Figure 13 shows that hotspot density increases rapidly as the monthly rainfall during the dry season decreases by more than 50 mm below normal (long term average). Flooded Area (ha) by subdistrict with sea level rise of Sub-District Asemrowo Benowo Gunung Anyar Kenjeran Krembangan Mulyorejo Pabean Cantikan Rungkut Semampir Sukolilo 25 16 4 199 18 38 44 1 120 1 1175 50 21 5 219 22 39 58 1 132 2 1242 Figure 9. Impact of sea level rise of coastal city of Surabaya (Hariati et al., 2009) 19 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change Rate of land subsidence in Semarang based on measurement is between 1-8 cm per year Flooded Area (ha) by sub-district with sea level rise of and land subsidence Sub-District Genuk Tugu Semarang Barat Semarang Utara Sayung District Semarang Semarang Semarang Semarang Demak Total Area 25 cm 251 53 84 123 73 584 LS+25 cm 563 71 171 288 228 850 Figure 10. Impact of sea level rise of coastal city of Semarang (Hariati et al., 2009) Banda Aceh Medan Pontianak Menado Jayapura Padang Bengkulu 0 Number of water deficit month JAKARTA Ambon Ujung Pandang Mataram 12 Kupang Figure 11. Current status of water balance by River Area Unit (SWS; Heriensyah et al. 2009) 20 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change 120 Hot Spot Density Hot Spot Density 120 100 80 60 40 20 100 80 Pattern 2 (very low Hot Spot) 60 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des 0 Pattern 6 Pattern 3 Hot Spot Density 120 100 80 60 40 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des 0 100 60 40 20 0 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des Pattern 5 Hot Spot Density 120 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des Pattern 1 Pattern 2 Pattern 3 Pattern 4 Pattern 5 Pattern 6 120 Hot Spot Density Pattern 4 Pattern 1 Figure 12. Classification of region based hotspot density pattern (Ardiansyah and Boer, 2009) 0.8 Pattern 1 Pattern 2 Pattern 3 Pattern 4 Pattern 5 Pattern 6 0.7 Hot Spot Density 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Rainfall Anomaly (mm) Figure 13. Relationship between monthly rainfall anomaly and hotspot density (Ardiansyah and Boer, 2009) 21 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change 40 350 35 300 30 250 25 200 20 150 15 100 10 50 5 0 Number of affected Incidence Rate per 100.000 Health. Extreme weather related to ENSO also contributes to the outbreak of human diseases such as malaria, dengue, diarrhea, cholera and other vector borne diseases. Dengue cases were found to increase significantly in La-Niña years (Figure 14) when seasonal rainfall levels increased above average. A significant upward trend in the number of dengue cases was also observed in Java, especially in large cities (Figure 15). In other cities, such as Dhaka (Bangladesh), cholera cases correspond significantly to local maxima in ENSO, and this climate phenomenon accounts for over 70% of disease variance (Rodo et al., 2002). In Africa also, malaria disease outbreaks were triggered by the occurrence of above normal rainfall (Moji et al., 2002). Moreover, the risk of transmission of dengue and malaria under changing climate may well increase as water scarcity increases in urban areas (Hidayati et al., 2009). 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 0 Figure 14. Number of incidence rate of dengue histogram and of affected cities and districts line in Indonesia (Source: Ministry of Health). Note: 1973, 1988 and 1998 are La-Niña years. Between -6 and -3 Between -3 and 0 Between 0 and 3 Between 3 and 6 Between 6 and 9 Between 9 and 12 Between 12 and 15 Between 15 and 18 Between 18 and 21 Between 21 and 24 Figure 15. Annual trend of dengue incidence rate in districts in Java (cases/100,000 people/year; MoE, 2007b). 22 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Mitigate Climate Change Measures to Mitigate Climate Change The Government of Indonesia has voluntarily committed to actively participate in undertaking appropriate mitigation actions (NAMA). The President of the Republic of Indonesia has stated that Indonesia would reduce its emissions by 26% from the baseline in 2020. Support from developed countries would enable further reductions of up to 41% by 2050. Projections of emissions under Business as Usual (BAU) scenarios have also been developed for all sectors. Energy Sector. There are several versions of national energy supply development projections presented in official documents. Energy supply projections without any energy conservation effort (BAU) and with energy conservation policies (RIKEN) have been estimated by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM). Both projections have been stated in the Blueprint of National Energy Management (PEN) 2005 and Energy Outlook 2006 – 2030 (Table 3). Projection of energy supply under BAU in the Energy Outlook 2006-2030 is similar with BAU under the PEN, with the inclusion of energy conservation, the power plant crash programme, kerosene to LPG substitution, mandatory biofuel usage. Alternative non-BAU “mitigation” scenarios include the IGCC, solar energy, waste incinerator, CBM, liquefied coal. The resulting CO2 emission projection under PEN and Energy outlook 2006-2030 is presented in Figure 16 and 17. With the above scenarios, Indonesia could reduce the emission from energy sector in 2020 by between 35% and 40% from BAU-PEN. Table 3. Projection of energy supply under PEN and Energy Outlook 2006-2030 (MMBOE) PEN Energy Outlook 20062030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 BAU 749 961 1397 2034 3221 5103 RIKEN 708 898 1226 1562 2267 3258 PERPRES 708 898 1152 1536 2149 3128 BAU* 772 899 1186 1565 2065 2724 Alternative 772 899 1181 1550 2036 2673 Assumption Crude oil price base USD 52/ barrel Crude oil price base USD 80/ barrel A number of mitigation options being considered to be implemented as defined in the scenarios are presented in Table 4. 23 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Mitigate Climate Change Liq-Coal 2,500 Millions tCO2 CBM Coal 2,000 Natural Gas Oil 1,500 1,000 500 2005 2010 2015 2020 PerpresOPT RIKEN BAU PerpresOPT RIKEN BAU PerpresOPT RIKEN BAU PerpresOPT RIKEN BAU PerpresOPT RIKEN BAU - 2025 Figure 16. Projection of emission under PEN (Dewi et al., 2009a) 2,500 Million Ton CO2 2,000 1,500 Liq-Coal CBM 1,000 Coal Natural Gas 500 Oil BAU ALT 2000 BAU ALT BAU ALT BAU ALT 2005 2010 2015 BAU ALT BAU ALT 2020 2025 Figure 17. Projection of CO2 emission under Energy outlook 2006-2030 (Dewi et al., 2009a) 24 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Mitigate Climate Change Table 4. Selected mitigation options Sector Sub Sector Mitigation Options Energy Supply Power generation a. Include less GHG emission intensive energy systems not selected in the BAU, such as power from waste (PLTSA incinerator, landfill gas (LFG), liquid and solid biomass waste, etc), solar, wind, etc. b. Increase the share of new-renewable energy that has been included in BAU but still below the level of PERPRESS target, such as geothermal and c. Increase the use of efficient technology in power plants, i.e circulated coal fluidized bed combustion (CFBC) coal integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), gas combined cycle, combined heat and power, d. Develop technology that is appropriated to use with low GHG emissions, e. Apply CCS technology for large coal power plants Oil and gas production and refineries Energy Transportation End User a. Gas flaring and venting reduction a. Increase biofuel development efforts for personal vehicles b. Increase the use of compressed natural gas and LPG in transport c. Introduce fuel cell and electric cars/motorcycles d. Promote mass rapid transport (MRT) e. Introduce traffic management, Intelligent Transport Systems Industry a. Increase the use of energy efficient equipment or technology (more efficient conversion process, more efficient combustion system, variable speed electric motors, etc) b. Use of more efficient material conversion process c. Use of recycled materials, etc d. Introduce co-processing or co-firing technology Residential and commercial end uses The potential for GHG mitigation through energy conservation and fuel switching have been included in the BAU and therefore not considered as mitigation options Source: Dewi et al., (2009a) 25 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Mitigate Climate Change Forestry. Projection of carbon stock changes in the living biomass from 1990 to 2030 has been developed based on historical trend of deforestation and land rehabilitation data (Boer, 2001). Without mitigation efforts, the carbon stock in the living biomass will continue to decrease until 2030. To increase the carbon stock back to a level of 1990, the rate of land rehabilitation through reforestation, afforestation, timber plantation and biomass energy plantation, and restoration of production forest through enrichment planting should be increased by 68% and 35% respectively. Illegal logging should be reduced by 43% and the rate of shifting cultivation should be reduced by 17% from historical levels. The land use change pattern and carbon stock change under the two scenarios are presented in Table 5 and Figure 18. Table 5. Changes in land use under three scenarios (‘000 ha) Projection Timber Plantation Reforestation 1997-2000 200 2001-2010 2011-2020 Baseline 150 150 2021-2030 110 1 40 (40%) 50 (40%) 100 (80%) 100 (80%) Afforestation1 126 (70%) 150 (70%) 200 (90%) 250 (90%) 0 250 0 250 0 300 0 350 Biolelectricity Enhanced Natural Regeneration Reduced Impact Logging Transmigration Agricultural Plantation Shifting cultivation Forest Fires Illegal Logging Timber Plantation Reforestation1 0 0 0 0 150 250 235 60 500 100 250 235 120 400 50 300 175 120 300 25 300 120 120 200 Mitigation Scenario 350 390 300 200 40 (40%) 120 (80%) 200 (80%) 200 (80%) 126 (70%) 200 (90%) 250 (90%) 250 (90%) Biolelectricity Enhanced Natural Regeneration Reduced Impact Logging Transmigration Agricultural Plantation Shifting cultivation Forest Fires 0 250 0 150 250 235 60 50 300 200 100 350 175 90 50 400 50 25 350 130 90 0 600 50 0 350 90 90 Illegal Logging 500 200 100 0 Afforestation1 1Values in parenthesis refer to the survival rate. Source: Boer (2001) 26 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Mitigate Climate Change 2030 2026 2022 2018 2014 2010 2006 2002 1998 1994 1990 Carbon Pool (million ton) To strengthen the role of the land use and forestry sector in 19000 Baseline mitigating climate change, the Mitigation Government of Indonesia has set 18500 up ambitious targets for land and 18000 forest rehabilitation programmes. All forest concession companies 17500 are encouraged to adopt improved silviculture systems, 17000 such as reduced impact logging and intensive silviculture 16500 (SILIN). With such an ambitious 16000 programme, Indonesia will turn into a net GHG sink country in the next 10 years. However, to Figure 18. Carbon stock change under baseline and achieve such ambitious targets, mitigation scenarios (Boer, 2001). Note: In this Indonesia will require financial analysis carbon loss from peat soil was not support, technology transfer estimated and capacity building. The rate of programme implementation along with their corresponding CO2 sequestration is presented in Table 6. Some potential funding sources being targeted by the Government of Indonesia to achieve such targets include (Wibowo and Boer, 2009): • REDD Fund. Current progress on pilot activities has shown broad interest from donor organizations and countries, as well as the private sectors to implement REDD pilots in some areas of Indonesia (Aceh, Papua, and Kalimantan). • CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) /Kyoto mechanism. A potential funding source for Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) in the future. • Private investment. Favorable conditions are needed to attract private investment from overseas, and under current conditions more work needs to be done for Indonesia to attract such investments. • Grants through bilateral channel such as the Overseas Development Assistance (ODA). • Grants through multilateral channel: World Bank, ITTO (International Tropical Timber Organization), GEF (Global Environment Facility), GM (Global Mechanism), FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization). • DNS (Debt for Nature Swaps): Under the Tropical Forest Conservation Act of the USA, Indonesia may apply for debt reduction and use the money for forest conservation activities. • Adaptation Fund under the Kyoto mechanism. Developing countries (G77+China) in the UNFCCC negotiation process have proposed an adaptation fund for forest rehabilitation and forest conservation. • GFF (Global Forest Fund). The mechanism has been proposed within UNFF (United Nations Forum on Forest), and many foresters expect that the mechanism will support the effort toward Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) in the future. 27 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Mitigate Climate Change Table 6. Forestry sector programme related to GHG mitigation (Source: Masripatin et al., 2009a; Masripatin et al., 2009b) Programme Cumulative Area (million Ha) and CO2 Absorbed/Stored (million ton/ha) 2007-2009 2010-2014 2014-2020 2021-2025 2025-2030 HTI 3.6 (105.5) 7.5 (219.75) 8.4 (246.12) 9.3 (272.8) 9.7 (284.2) HTR 3.6 (105.5) 5.6 (164.1) 7.3 (213.9) 9.0 (263.7) 9.8 (287.1) HR 2.0 (58.6) 4.6 (134.8) 6.3 (184.6) 8 (234.4) 8 (234.4) Gerhan 1.68 Intensive Silviculture (Silin) 0.25 0.75 1.50 2.00 2.50 Planting of 1 million trees 0.003 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Protection Forest 0.5 (373.5) 1.6 (2347.2) 3.3 (4841.1) 5.0 (7335.0) 7.6 (11149.2) Conservation Forest 0,5 (733,5) 2,5 (3667.5) 3.8 (5574.6) 5.0 (7335.0) 6.3 (9242.1) Sink Enhancement Forest Plantation Forest Rehabilitation Emission Reduction: Management and Improvement of Natural Forest Production Forest (HPH) 23.12 (3.39) 23.12 (3.39) 23.12 (3.39) 23.12 (3.39) 23.12 (3.39) Protection Forest 13.39 (19643.1) 15.15 (22225.0) 17.27 (25335.1) 19.39 (28445.1) 21.77 (31936.5) Conservation Forest 10.24 (15022.1) 16.16 (23706.7) 18.28 (26816.7) 20.39 (29912.1) 20.64 (30278.8) Assumptions: (i) Forest Plantation (HTI, HTR, HR) with 10 year rotation, absorbs carbon of about 8 ton/ha/year or ~29,3 ton CO2/ha/ year; (ii) Production forest, store carbon about 200 ton/ha (~736 ton CO2 per ha); (iii) Undisturbed forest in protection forests and conservation forests, store carbon about 400 ton/ha (~1467 ton CO2 per ha); (iv) Forest Rehabilitation in conservation and protection forests (n.a for carbon absorbed/stored because trees planted in these area can be scattered or in patches within the defined area and no data available yet) In respect of the relationship between REDD and SFM, some countries have made commitments to support Indonesia. UNREDD and FCPF, for example, have made commitments to support Indonesia to develop an effective and accountable framework for REDD, together with other key stakeholders such as Australia, UK, Germany, Japan and Korea. Table 7 presents some examples of such international for conducting forestry mitigation projects. 28 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Mitigate Climate Change Table 7. Select support programmes by international agencies for Indonesia (Wibowo and Boer, 2009) Title Cooperation to Support Forest Governance and Multistakeholders Forestry Programme Duration 2007-2010 Objective 1. Support governance reforms to reduce and eventually eliminate illegal logging and its associated timber trade, with a particular focus on support to negotiation and implementation of the EUGoI FLEGT VPA and other international arrangements; .2. Through a multistakeholder approach, build capacity of central and local government and civil society, support partnerships between government and civil society, promote policy analysis and development, and support poverty reduction through more equitable and sustainable management of natural resources, with a particular focus on the rights and opportunities through community forestry for disadvantaged and women’s groups; 3. Explore the opportunities for governance reforms that are necessary for Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). Title Financial Cooperation for Climate Change and REDD Issue; Title: Forestry-Climate Change Project in Central and East Kalimantan (FCCP) Duration 7 years, started 2009 Objective Overal Objective: To support Indonesia with the reduction of Green House Gases (GHG) emission from deforestation and degradation. Specific Objective: 1. To support policy priorities of Ministry of Forestry in REDD 2. To support the implementation of mechanism related to avoiding deforestation by development of pilot projects in Indonesia with the involvement of local communities in sustainable forest management Title Technical Cooperation / TC Supporting implementation of Ministry of Forestry’s strategic plan Duration 3 years, Started mid 2008 Objective To implement the Strategic Plan which is integrated and synergized with other sector planning, in particular provincial and districts programme Title Technical Cooperation Forestry Programme in Implementing The Heart of Borneo Initiative (Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei Darussalam) Duration 3 years, Started mid 2008 Objective 1. To establish trilateral, national and local (states, provincial, and district) institutional arrangement to support the implementation of the HoB Programme 29 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Mitigate Climate Change 2. To develop mechanisms, including inter alia, action plan at all levels, on the implementation of HoB programme. 3. To strengthen capacity of stakeholders related to the implementation of HoB programmes. Title Kalimantan Forests and Climate Partnership Duration 2007-2012 Objective The goal of the programme is to support GOI efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with deforestation in Indonesia, through action to reduce rates of deforestation, support reforestation and promote sustainable forest management, delivering improvements in rural livelihoods and environmental benefits. Title The United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (UNREDD Programme) Duration 2009-2011 Objective A FAO, UNDP and UNEP collaboration, UN-REDD in Indonesia aims to: 1. Strengthen multi-stakeholder participation and consensus at national level 2. Successfully demonstrate the establishment of REL, MRV and fair payment systems based on the national REDD architecture 3. Through demonstration activities and other support, build capacity to implement REDD at decentralized levels Title Korea-Indonesia Joint Programme on Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change in Forestry through A/R CDM and other Related Mechanisms Duration 2008-2012 Objective 1. Analyze REDD applications and to acquire a framework in carbon credits by preventing forest conversion as a post-2012 preparative measure 2. Implement capacity building programmes including expert exchange and training courses 3. Acquire cost-effective potential A/R CDM sites and to establish foundation for carbon credits in preparation of post-2012 emission commitments 30 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Mitigate Climate Change Agriculture Sector. The main sources of CH4 emissions from the agriculture sector are rice fields and livestock. Projections of emissions under these two sub-sectors were developed using a number of assumptions to model the impacts of different policy options. The assumptions included consideration of historical conditions and population growth trend. Rice Paddy1,2 To reduce emissions from the rate under BAU, six mitigation scenarios were proposed as shown in Table 8 (S1-S6). In the mitigation scenarios, the rice variety used was changed from Cisadane to IR64. In 2030, total rice paddy area that applied the mitigation technologies are all less than 30%--namely 21% for S1, 5% for S2, 15% for S3, 14% for S4, 6% for S5 and 1.6% for S6. Using these assumptions, it was found that total methane emission in 2030 under BAU and BAU2 would be about 38.8 and 42.4 Tg CO2e respectively. The most effective mitigation scenario would be the adoption of less methane-emission varieties (Figure 19). Adoption of new less-methane emitting varieties would drop the rate of methane emission from BAU by about 20%. Table 8. Mitigation Scenarios for reducing methane emission from rice paddy Rate of the technology adoption Potential (Percent of potential applicability area) applicability (%) 2005* 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Scenario Mitigation Technology S0 Flooded with inorganic fertilizer (according to Kepmentan) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 S1 Intermittent irrigation (including SRI, PTT) 70 3 5 10 20 25 30 100 0 0 1 2 3 5 30 20 25 30 40 45 50 70 3 5 8 10 15 20 30 3 5 8 10 15 20 30 0 0 1 2 4 6 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 Fertilizer supplement (ZA and urea brisket) Adoption of less methane emitting-varieties* Intermittent + Fertilizer Supplement (Combine S1 & S2) Intermittent + Fertilizer Supplement (Combine S1, S2 & S2) S5 + iron meterial/silica Note: Total rice paddy area was assumed to be about 7.8 million ha. Potential applicability means that total area applicable for the mitigation technologies. The remaining areas which do not use the mitigation technologies still use the baseline technologies. Less methane emitting-varieties include Ciherang, Cisantana, Tukad Belian and Way Apo Buru (Setyanto et al., 2009) 1 BAU1: All irrigated rice fields are continuously flooded and applied inorganic fertilizers with Cisadane variety. Area of irrigated rice fields in Java will not change considering the adoption of the regulation on sustainable agriculture land, although outside Java rice fields may increase at a rate of 50 thousand ha per year. The planting index is assumed to be 2.4 if the source of irrigation is from reservoirs and 1.4 if from other sources. Other assumptions are that the variety being used is Cisadane. 2 BAU2: Similar to BAU1 but the rice paddy area in Java is assumed to be converted to non-rice paddy area with a rate of about 50 thousand ha per year and outside Java it will increase at a rate of about 150 thousand ha per year. 31 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Mitigate Climate Change 40000 38000 BAU1 BAU1-S1 BAU1-S2 BAU1-S3 BAU1-S4 BAU1-S5 BAU1-S6 42000 Emisi Metan (Gg CO2e Emisi Metan (Gg CO2e) 42000 36000 34000 32000 30000 2000 2010 2020 2030 40000 38000 36000 BAU2 BAU2-S1 BAU2-S2 BAU2-S3 BAU2-S4 BAU2-S5 BAU2-S6 34000 32000 30000 2000 2010 2020 2030 Figure 19. The projection of methane emissions from rice paddies under the baseline and mitigation scenarios (Setyanto et al., 2009). See the footnotes on the page above for descriptions of BAU1 and BAU2. Livestock For livestock, the projection of emissions follows the projection of population growth. The annual livestock population growth was assumed to follow the historical population growth rate, i.e., beef cattle and dairy cattle 5%, broiler and layer 3%, buffalo, sheep, goat, pig and local chicken 2%, horse and duck 1%. With this growth rate, the domestic demand for these animals will not been fully met, meaning that Indonesia may still need to import meat and milk. Mitigation technologies that have been identified for this sub-sector are the following: 1. Feeding Quality Improvement. Currently, beef and dairy cattle feeding practices are less efficient (higher losses of feed energy in form of methane and lesser amounts of energy stored in animal product). Utilization of low digestible feed, higher proportion of forage and low quality pasture (eastern part of Indonesia) are some of the main problems. Increasing conversions of feeds energy to animal product will not only decrease methane emission but also benefit to the farmer. Feeding quality improvement programmes of beef and dairy cattle will reduce the methane emission coefficient by up to 20%. Some possible activities are: a. Introduction of high quality local feed sources such as legume and high quality grass as well as utilization of agriculture byproducts. b. Improvement of low quality byproduct using physical, chemical or biological pretreatment. c. Increase concentrate to forage ratio. d. Increase animal productivity by intensifying production (feeding as required). The equal amount of animal product will be produced by less animal numbers. 32 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Mitigate Climate Change 2. Supplementation. Supplementation of minerals in form of feed supplement blocks (FBS) has been tested on a limited scale by smallholder farmers. One study reported that mineral supplements increased animal productivity, reducing methane formation by up to 15% (Suryahadi et al., 2007). Mineral supplementation programmes have also advantages for their simplicity of application and higher achievement (less risk of failure). 3. Long-term Breeding Programme. Improvement of animal breeding could mitigate up to 10% of methane emission from livestock. The improvement could be achieved through appropriate long-term breeding programmes. The animal will be breed for its adaptation to climate, higher productivity and less methanogenic bacteria/methane production. A potential breeding programme would need high investment and would give long-term return rates, thus likely requiring government support. 4. Bio-energy. Utilization of animal sewage as bio-energy is a clear option because of its relevance to national government programmes. Currently, the Indonesian government is trying to incentivize the development of renewable and environmentally-friendly energy sources. Bio-energy from animal sewage could reduce methane emissions up to 80% compared to untreated sewage. Furthermore, the bi-product sludge of Table 9. Projected level of adoption of mitigation technology for livestock No. Mitigation Options Percentage of animal population applying the option* 1. Supplementation Beef cattle 1% and Dairy Cattle 3% of population per year. 2. Improvement feeding practices Beef cattle 2% and Dairy Cattle 5% of population per year. 3. Manure management/Biogas Beef cattle 1% and Dairy Cattle 1% of population per year. 4. Long term breeding programme Dairy Cattle 1% of population per year; 5. Tree legume introduction Dairy Cattle 1% of population per year; the digester can be utilized as an organic fertilizer, which has high economic value. This programme has disadvantages, however, because of the significant investment needs from the investments for digester technology deployment. Methan Emission (Ton/Year) 1,800 With the adoption of these options (Table 9) the rate of CH4 emission from this subsector would reduce slightly (Figure 20). 1,600 1,400 1,200 BASE LINE Supplemetation Improvement feeding practices Manure management Breeding programme Tree legumes introduction 1,000 800 600 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Figure 20. Projection of methane emission from livestock (Suryahadi et al., 2009) 33 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Measures to Mitigate Climate Change Other Information Waste Sector. Municipal solid waste landfill is the most significant GHG emission source in this sector. Other major sources are domestic waste water (latrine, septic tank, and centralized off-site plants) and industrial waste water (primarily centralized off-site waste water plants). Regarding these GHG emission sources, mitigation of GHG emissions from domestic solid waste could primarily be achieved through waste reduction. One of the options is 3R (Reduce · Reuse · Recycle) which can reduce waste in large volumes. Future scenarios of the national strategic plan, developed by the Public Work Department, estimate that waste can be reduced by 20% in 2010. In addition to 3R, mitigation options for reducing GHG emissions from municipal solid waste are to either introduce incinerators in order to replace all open burning systems or to manage all waste under anaerobic conditions. According to the MDGs target, 80% of the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) in urban areas and 50% of the MSW in rural areas should be transported to the final disposal site by 2015. The Government of Indonesia, through Solid Waste Management Law No 18/2008, is attempting to improve waste management by converting open dumping areas to sanitary(controlled) landfills. The development of regional landfills are priority programmes with national financial support as an initial investment. Reducing GHG emissions from solid waste through LFG (Landfill Gas) programmes have also been introduced. At present the implementation of LFGs are all under CDM projects. Based on these policy options, the level of GHG emissions from the waste sector can be reduced significantly from the baseline condition (Figure 21). Rate of emission (t CH4 per year) 14,000 12,000 BAU 10,000 3R Compost 8,000 3R Compost CDM 6,000 3R Compost New SWDS (SWMLaw) 4,000 2,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Figure 21. Projection of CH4 emissions from waste sector under BAU and mitigatin scenarios (Dewi et al., 2009b) 34 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Other Information Other Information The role of NGOs is considerable in the implementation of adaptation and mitigation activities with local communities. At present there are a number of NGOs working in the area mitigation. From the SGP-GEF UNDP programme and authors’ experiences, it has 18 NGOs have been identified as working on climate change mitigation projects that focus on energy and waste. Most of the NGOs are working in Java island (Figure 22). 10 Number of NGOs 8 6 4 2 Other Province Bali South East Sulawesi Central Kalimantan South Sumatera Riau North Sulawesi West Nusa Tenggara South Kalimantan West Kalimantan Papua Central Sulawesi South Sulawesi Lampung, Sumatera East Kalimantan East Java Central Java West Java DKI Jakarta, Java Aceh 0 Province Figure 22. Number of NGOs working in the area of climate change mitigation activities on energy and waste sector (Boer et al., 2008) In general, NGOs can play the role of implementer and facilitator of CDM projects as well as voluntary carbon projects. Several NGOs, especially those with technical competency, could act as CDM or voluntary carbon project developers. NGOs who have technical expertise on digester construction, such as BORDA (Bremen Overseas Research and Development Association) and its partners BaliFokus and LPTP (Lembaga Pengembangan Teknologi Pedesaan), or SNV (Dutch NGO) in Nepal, can provide technical assistance for designing the necessary infrastructure. NGOs also receive funds from developed countries to implement projects and facilitate community awareness regarding waste reduction and emissions. Some funds are grants 35 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Barriers, and Related Financial, Technical and Capacity Needs from the German or Dutch Governments, often distributed through development aid programmes and INGOs (International NGOs). Barriers, and Related Financial, Technical and Capacity Needs The main barriers for the implementation of mitigation measures are the lack of available technology, low human resource capabilities in providing and operating such technologies, scarce government budget, and lack of information access. However, there are various options available to overcome these issues. The abundance of resources for renewable energy in Indonesia and various government efforts, such as programmes and policies on the implementation of renewable energy and energy efficiency programmes, will accelerate the implementation of mitigation activities. In addition, the emergence and rapid growth of the carbon market may also accelerate the adoption and implementation of mitigation technologies that are not economically feasible and/ or facing certain barriers. Nevertheless, to upscale the implementation of climate change programmes additional financial and capacity support will be necessary: Financial Needs. Bappenas along with sectoral ministries has identified a number of climate change adaptation and mitigation programmes. There are about 54 climate change projects (26 adaptation, 18 mitigation and 8 integrated adaptation and mitigation projects) being proposed for implementation in the next five years (up to 2012). The programmes require about 897 million USD. Technical and Capacity Needs. The agriculture sector has been considered the most vulnerable sector to climate change. In order to increase the resilience of this sector to climate change, a number of programmes are being considered: • Development and implementation of a comprehensive communications strategy to increase the capacity of farmers to use climate information in managing their farming system and agribusiness activities (e.g. climate field school) • Development and implementation of a comprehensive communications strategy to raise awareness of climate change impacts and the advantages of early attention to adaptation, including partnerships with key national professional and interest groups to develop best practice networks. • Institutionalize the use of climate (forecast) information in managing current and future climate risks. • Develop and promote tools for adaptation planning tailored to user’s requirements that include: - Decision-support tools such as methods for assessing the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies, and guides for risk management; - methods for understanding social impacts; 36 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Barriers, and Related Financial, Technical and Capacity Needs - a national ‘one stop shop’ website where decision-makers and their advisers can access information about climate projections, likely climate change impacts, tools, guides and approaches to adaptation planning. To accelerate the development of mitigation and adaptation technologies, the Government of Indonesia has established the Research Consortium on Climate Variability and Climate Change. This consortium will play role in (i) coordinating each sector’s adaptation research resources to more effectively support climate change decision-making, including by brokering research partnerships and providing a vehicle to commission new integrated research; (ii) Synergizing research programmes and activities on climate change and establishing a road map in mitigating and adapting to climate change, (iii) building the capacity of the Indonesia research community to generate information relevant to decision-makers; (iv) establishing an interface between researchers and decision-makers; (v) promoting coordinated programmes of work on impacts and adaptation across Indonesia, working in collaboration with stakeholders and other researchers in national, regional and sectoral contexts, (vi) delivering the information to support climate change adaptation decision-making at the national, regional and local levels through coordination, integration, synthesis and communication of research. The consortium conducts research and development activities on inventories, mitigation and adaptation which include the following: (i) development of GHG emission and removal factors and methods for improving activity data, (ii) identification and development of mitigation technologies with the potential for CDM projects, the development of baseline and monitoring methodologies as required by the CDM Executive Board, and (iii) conducting policy research on maintaining food crop self sufficiency under changing demography, socio-economic, land use and climate (e.g. mapping vulnerable areas to climate change, strategies for coping with the climate changes etc) In the forestry sector, the development of systematic forest and land use monitoring systems is also crucial to support the implementation of programmes for REDD. The Government of Indonesia is in the process of establishing Indonesia’s National Carbon Accounting System (NCASI), based on Australia’s system but tailored to Indonesia’s unique circumstances. The NCASI will provide a comprehensive and credible compilation of Indonesia’s land based emissions profile and sink capacity. It will support Indonesia’s reporting requirements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and potential post-2012 Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation global climate protection regime. Further, the NCASI will contribute significantly to Indonesia’s carbon accounting, resulting in positive implications both domestically and internationally. It will allow Indonesia to develop a robust modeling and projection capacity for land based carbon accounting, and therefore robust emissions and removal estimates. 37 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Barriers, and Related Financial, Technical and Capacity Needs The INCAS will pull together information on deforestation, land use change and land use from Indonesia’s forest lands and other lands (primarily agricultural lands) to: Support Indonesia’s position in the international development of policy and guidelines on sink activity and greenhouse gas emissions and their mitigation from land based systems. Reduce scientific uncertainties (particularly regarding peat) of emission estimates and removals of both CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases from land use change. Provide monitoring capabilities for existing emissions and sinks, and scenario development and modeling capabilities that support greenhouse gas mitigation and the sinks development agenda through to 2010 and beyond. Provide a scientific and technical basis for international negotiations and promote Indonesia’s national interests in international forums. Develop a comprehensive GIS that includes digital map-based information such as soil maps, remotely sensed images covering the whole of Indonesia and climate and vegetation data. Support Indonesia’s negotiations on REDD and provide the necessary inputs required for establishing a credible Reference Emission Level. In relation to the forestry sector, Indonesia is developing Indonesia’s Forest Resource Information System (FRIS). FRIS will be a comprehensive and transparent information management system to support effective planning and forest management decision making for forest lands in Indonesia. FRIS will allow the Ministry of Forestry to monitor forest productivity, yield and growth, harvesting rates, age class, species and forest area among other things. It will also compile critical information on deforestation, land use and land use change within Indonesia’s forest lands to support a post-Kyoto climate protection regime that seeks to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). Combining this data within a single system will provide a good basis for planning and decisions on sustainable forest management. The lack of reliable information on forest resources has been identified as a major impediment to sustainable forest management in Indonesia. Such information gaps are hampering efforts to monitor deforestation and forest degradation, sustainably manage forest resources, combat illegal logging, protect biodiversity and reduce carbon emissions from land use change. Improving forest information is crucial in the context of the emerging need for the Government of Indonesia to document carbon stocks in forests and greenhouse gas emissions related to land use change and to participate in carbon markets for avoided deforestation and degradation. 38 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Barriers, and Related Financial, Technical and Capacity Needs FRIS objectives: • Provide spatial information on forest extent to support planning, management and decision making including improved tools for granting, monitoring and collating information on forest licenses. • Provide an integrated and comprehensive system connecting data and statistics on forests with geographic maps and spatial data. The system will link the Ministry of Forestry with forest departments at the district and provincial level and interface with databases developed by other government departments, such as the Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Environment. • Support transparency and disclosure of forest sector information. • Support the regular reporting required of the Ministry of Forestry (for the FRA of FAO and others). • To provide information that can be used to develop a Reference Emission Level for REDD. • To provide estimates of the amount of carbon stored in above ground forest biomass, forest litter, tree roots and debris. 39 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) References References Aldrian, E. 2008. PEAT Carbon, fire and climate Interactions. Jurnal Hidrosfir Indonesia 3: 23-32 Ardiansyah, M. and R. Boer. 2009. Forestry Sector. In MoE. 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KEHATI Foundation, Jakarta 28 June 2007 (in Indonesian) World Bank, 2008. Climate Change in Indonesia: Low Carbon Development Options Study. Phase 1 Status Report. Paper presented at the National Consultation on ‘A Regional Review of the Economic of Climate Change in South East Asia (PRECCS). Jakarta 23-24 May 2008. 43 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) References 44 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 45 Summary for Policy Makers: Indonesia Second National Communication Under The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Contact Details: Unit Asdep Pengendalian Dampak Perubahan Iklim Kementerian Negara Lingkungan Hidup Jl. D.I. Panjaitan Kav. 24 Kebon Nanas, Jatinegara, JAKARTA (13410) Telp. : 021-8517164 Fax. : 021-85902521 Email : [email protected] Website : www.menlh.go.id 46